Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating. Steel prices are also fluctuating due to macro - sentiment disturbances. Iron ore prices have slightly increased with the rebound of hot metal production, while the price of thermal coal has a complex situation with different trends in production areas, ports, and imports [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3046 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil at 3254 yuan/ton. The production, demand, and total inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and spot trading was average. This week, the production and sales of building materials increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and demand slightly rebounded. However, there may be a weakening of demand in the off - season. The production of strip steel decreased due to production restrictions in North China, demand remained resilient, and inventory decreased slightly. The contradiction in strip steel lies in high inventory and production, and export profit losses suppress steel prices, requiring production cuts to resolve the contradiction. Future attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, inventory, and raw material cost support [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly fluctuating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices slightly increased. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 1.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.28%. This week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2660 tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments have continued to decline this week, showing a loose supply situation. With the end of production restrictions in Hebei, hot metal production has been supported, and the current average daily hot metal output has rebounded to a high level over the years. The current relative valuation of the Platts iron ore index is relatively high, and iron ore prices face downward pressure, but it is difficult to have a trending direction in the short term under the support of downstream replenishment demand. Attention should be paid to hot metal production, downstream inventory changes, and negotiation situations [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly fluctuating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures declined. In the spot market, coal prices in the main production areas slightly decreased steadily. The coke spot market continued to be strong. For imported Mongolian coal, due to the significant decline in the futures market, port prices were under pressure to adjust downward. Currently, the transaction price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to around 1100 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal has dropped to around 1210 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, market sentiment has slightly weakened, rigid demand has declined, and supply has been cut to varying degrees, resulting in a simultaneous tightening of supply and demand. For coking coal, terminal demand has been suppressed, and with the increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance volume, prices are fluctuating. Future attention should be paid to the price trend of thermal coal, coking coal supply, steel mill production cut plans, and macro - policies [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to fluctuate, and coke is also expected to fluctuate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In production areas, the prices of main - producing areas have slightly decreased. As the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and some coal mine prices have slightly adjusted downward. Currently, coal mine inventories are not high, and port prices are relatively strong, so coal mines are not very willing to cut prices. At ports, port shipments have increased, but downstream buyers are waiting and watching, and trading activity is low. Traders expect a tight supply - demand situation in winter and maintain firm quotes, but downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices, intensifying the game between buyers and sellers. In terms of imports, the imported coal market has been trending steadily and strongly recently. Imported coal has an obvious price advantage, and terminal users are concentrated in purchasing imported coal with cost - performance advantages, and imported coal prices have followed the upward trend, maintaining a stable cost - performance advantage. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: Not provided [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron ore: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal coal: No specific rating provided [7] 2. Core Views - Steel prices are oscillating due to fluctuating macro - sentiment. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and demand expectations are cautious. Hot - rolled coil inventory is decreasing, but it's also high year - on - year [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating downward. The arrival volume at ports has significantly increased, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure as steel mills cut production due to losses [3]. - Coking coal and coke are oscillating. Coking coal supply is tight, while demand has improved. Coke production has increased, but downstream steel mills purchase on a just - in - time basis due to compressed profits [5][6]. - Thermal coal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term due to the situation at production areas. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3295 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading of steel was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9800 tons. The trading volume in the East China region increased significantly, while that in the North decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and with the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing, and the pace of destocking is accelerating, but the inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined weakly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The total trading volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 1.293 million tons, a 62.44% increase from the previous day; the total trading volume of forward - looking spot was 965000 tons, a 35.15% increase from the previous day. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, with a total shipment volume of 3.2138 billion tons, a 5.15% decrease from the previous period. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, with a total arrival volume of 3.2184 billion tons, a 58.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports increased significantly this week. The overall valuation of iron ore is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure. As steel mills cut production due to losses, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and prices face correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - commodity: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4] - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The coking coal and coke futures market showed a pattern of mixed gains and losses and oscillating consolidation. The customs clearance volume of imported coal increased slightly, and traders were optimistic about the market and were reluctant to lower prices, with the overall trading atmosphere improving [5]. - Logic and views: For coking coal, safety inspections are being carried out in some domestic production areas, and the customs clearance of imported coal is continuously recovering, but the overall supply is still tight. On the demand side, a new round of price increases for coke is imminent, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm has improved compared with before. For coke, the profits of coking enterprises have improved, and production has increased. On the demand side, downstream steel mills' profits are compressed, and they mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Sideways [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Inter - period: None [6] - Inter - commodity: None [6] - Futures - spot: None [6] - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: At production areas, coal prices are strong. Supply in some areas has shrunk due to safety inspections. The inventory level in Inner Mongolia is not high, and miners are optimistic about the future. The transportation by platform traders has improved, and the number of coal - pulling trucks at some mines with large previous price drops has increased. At ports, although prices have increased, the increase is smaller than that at mines, and traders' expectations are divided. Affected by the decrease in shipments and the increase in production - area prices, traders' quotes have increased, and some are reluctant to sell, while others think the price increase will be limited. Downstream users mainly purchase under long - term contracts and are resistant to high - priced coal. Currently, port inventory is low, with a large year - on - year decrease, and the shipment to ports is slow, so prices are unlikely to decline in the short term. For imports, the price support for imported coal is strong, and rainfall in Indonesia still affects shipments. At the beginning of the month, the imported coal market was stable, and demand was mainly for刚需 [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by production areas, prices will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. Strategy - None [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The steel production and sales are weakening, and the price is oscillating and correcting. The market sentiment of glass and soda ash is declining, and they are oscillating. The consumption of steel is weakening, and the alloy prices are continuously dropping [1][3] - Glass prices are expected to be oscillating weakly, and soda ash prices are also expected to be oscillating weakly. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [2][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market was oscillating weakly. The spot market was mainly for刚需 purchases, and the speculative sentiment weakened. The weekly开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer inventory was 6.3426 billion heavy boxes, a 2.55% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market was oscillating strongly. The downstream demand was continuously weak, mainly for刚需 restocking. The weekly产能 utilization rate was 87.32%, a 1.91% increase from the previous week; the output was 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.8938 million tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With the decline of market sentiment, glass returns to its fundamental pricing logic. The supply has not been effectively cleared, the speculative demand has weakened, the supply - demand is still loose, and the spot price has dropped. The increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the price of the 09 contract [1] - Soda Ash: Currently, the soda ash output is continuously increasing with an expected further increase. The consumption may further weaken, and the inventory growth pressure is large. In the short - term, it is easily affected by news, while in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will suppress the price [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The steel data showed that steel inventory was continuously increasing and consumption was significantly declining. The silicon manganese futures market was oscillating downward. The spot market was in a wait - and - see state. The 6517 grade in the northern market was priced at 5,800 - 5,870 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5,850 - 5,920 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: Affected by the decline in steel prices, the silicon iron futures market tumbled at the end of the session. The silicon iron manufacturers' supplies were tight, and the spot market price was stable. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural block in the main production area was 5,450 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,900 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The output and demand of silicon manganese have slightly increased, the manufacturer inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at a medium level in the same period. The manganese ore quotation to China has slightly increased, and the cost has slightly moved up, supporting the spot price. However, considering the continuous increase in manganese ore port inventory, the cost support is weak, and the industry has obvious over - supply [3] - Silicon Iron: Currently, the silicon iron output is rapidly increasing, the demand has slightly increased, and the manufacturer inventory has increased month - on - month and is at a relatively high level in the same period. The increase in chemical coke price has driven up the cost, supporting the spot price. The industry has obvious over - supply [4] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon Iron: Oscillating [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel**: The strategy is to maintain a "sideways" stance. This includes a neutral view on single - sided trades, with no recommendations for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The strategy is "sideways with a downward bias" for single - sided trades, and no suggestions for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, the strategy is "sideways"; for coke, it's "sideways with a downward bias". There are no recommendations for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [6]. - **Steam Coal**: No investment strategy is provided [7]. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The overall steel market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction. With low raw material prices, steel mills have decent profits. As the off - season approaches, the production and apparent demand of building materials are gradually declining, and inventory is slightly decreasing, which supports prices. Plates maintain a pattern of strong supply and demand, and good inventory reduction performance supports plate prices. Due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market, steel exports are resilient, and overall steel prices remain stable. Attention should be paid to hot metal production and the implementation of supply - side policies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Currently, iron ore supply continues to increase, while demand slightly decreases. Hot metal production remains at a relatively high level over the years, and inventory is slightly decreasing, with total inventory at a medium level. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand. Be cautious of price rebounds due to unexpectedly strong off - season demand, and continuously monitor hot metal production and iron ore inventory changes during the off - season [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment for coking coal and coke is cautious, with prices moving sideways. For coking coal, factors such as safety inspections and policy adjustments have increased the expectation of supply contraction, but there are still pressures from high inventory and weakening marginal demand. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts in the spot market and considering the consumption off - season, inventory is relatively high, and the overall supply is still loose. Attention should be paid to hot metal production and coke supply changes [5][6]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply in the production areas has contracted, and short - term coal prices are moving sideways. Frequent environmental and safety inspections have affected coal washing plants, and some coal mines have been shut down for rectification. Chemical industries maintain rigid demand, but small and medium - sized traders have low purchasing enthusiasm. In the port market, demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small. In the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,108 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the futures market was dull, and the spot market transactions were average, with 104,000 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel is in a continuous inventory reduction state. Low raw material prices lead to good profits for steel mills. As the off - season approaches, building material production and demand decline, and inventory decreases slightly, supporting prices. Plates have strong supply and demand, and good inventory reduction supports prices. Low domestic prices make steel exports resilient [1]. - **Strategy**: Single - sided trades are expected to move sideways, with no recommendations for other types of trades [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: As of yesterday's close, the iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 707 yuan/ton, up 1.00%. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports rose slightly. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills mainly replenished inventory as needed. The total iron ore transactions at major ports nationwide were 787,000 tons, a 17.07% decrease from the previous day; the total forward - looking spot transactions were 1.415 million tons (11 transactions), a 14.96% decrease from the previous day (mine transactions were 820,000 tons) [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, iron ore supply is increasing, demand is slightly decreasing, hot metal production is relatively high, inventory is slightly decreasing, and total inventory is at a medium level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Be cautious of price rebounds during the off - season [3]. - **Strategy**: Single - sided trades are expected to move sideways with a downward bias, with no recommendations for other types of trades [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures moved sideways. For coke, traders mainly reduced inventory, and steel mills continued to control raw material procurement. Recently, some enterprises' supply has decreased due to environmental inspections and inventory pressure. For coking coal, frequent safety inspections in the main production areas during the safety month have reduced supply. Coking enterprises mainly purchase raw coal as needed, and the market is mostly in a wait - and - see mode. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal is at a low level [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, supply contraction expectations are rising, but high inventory and weakening demand pressures remain. For coke, after price cuts and in the off - season, inventory is relatively high, and supply is loose [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to move sideways, while coke is expected to move sideways with a downward bias. No recommendations for other types of trades [6]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are moving sideways. Frequent environmental and safety inspections have affected coal washing plants, and some coal mines have been shut down. Chemical industries maintain rigid demand, but small and medium - sized traders have low purchasing enthusiasm. In the port market, demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small. The price difference between domestic and imported low - calorie coal has widened [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In the short - term, coal price support from demand is insufficient, and with the rainy season, the substitution effect of hydropower is strengthening. In the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]. - **Strategy**: No investment strategy is provided [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The market is relatively cautious, with black commodities showing a weak and volatile trend. Glass and soda ash are fluctuating, while silicon manganese and silicon iron are also in a volatile state [1][3]. - For glass, although the futures market showed a slightly stronger trend and spot market transactions improved, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing industries, there is significant inventory accumulation and high pressure to reduce inventory. For soda ash, production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but supply remains loose, and demand growth is limited [1]. - In the case of silicon manganese, production has decreased to a low level in recent years, demand has weakened, and high inventory and registered warrants are suppressing prices, although manganese ore cost provides some support. For silicon iron, production is at a medium - low level, demand is weakening, inventory is being depleted, and short - term prices are affected by cost factors [3]. Summary by Relevant Content Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass futures showed a slightly stronger trend, and spot market transactions improved with better downstream purchasing sentiment. Soda ash futures had a narrow - range fluctuation, and the spot market demand was average, mainly for rigid needs [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass production has been declining, but due to insufficient demand recovery in real - estate and deep - processing, inventory accumulation is obvious, and there is high pressure to reduce inventory. The upcoming high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, increasing the intention of enterprises to reduce prices and inventory. Soda ash production has decreased due to increased plant maintenance, but supply remains loose. The slowdown in photovoltaic growth limits the increase in demand, and there is still significant pressure to reduce inventory [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass is expected to be volatile, while soda ash is expected to be weakly volatile. There are no specific strategies for inter - period or inter - commodity trading [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis** - Silicon manganese futures showed greater fluctuations, and the overall market was volatile. The final price of mainstream steel tenders has not been determined. Production has decreased to a low level in recent years, demand has weakened, and high inventory and registered warrants are suppressing prices, but manganese ore cost provides support. Silicon iron futures were volatile, with a reduction of 11,000 lots in positions. The spot market was weak, with cautious operations and little change in transaction prices. Production is at a medium - low level, demand is weakening, inventory is being depleted, and short - term prices are affected by cost factors [3]. - **Strategy** - For silicon manganese, near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants, and attention should be paid to the opportunity for a low - level rebound in far - month contracts. Silicon iron is expected to be volatile [4].