跨品种：无 黑色建材日报 | 2025-11-14 市场情绪降温，双焦震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪扰动，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3046元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3254元/吨。现货方面，钢联数据显示，昨日五大材 产量、需求、总库存都有所下降，现货成交一般。 综合来看：本周建材产销环比回升，库存环比去化，需求小幅回升。目前建材基本面矛盾不足，淡季需求有转弱 可能。本周板带材受华北限产影响产量回落，需求维持韧性，库存环比小幅去化。目前板带材矛盾仍然在于其同 期高位的库存和产量，且由于出口利润亏损，钢材价格表现受到抑制，仍然需通过减产来化解基本面矛盾。后续 关注钢厂减产、库存及原料成本支撑情况。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水产量反弹，矿价小幅上涨 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格小幅上涨。现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报盘 积极性一般，报价多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交105.0万吨，环比上涨6.28%。据钢联 数据显示，本周247 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron ore: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal coal: No specific rating provided [7] 2. Core Views - Steel prices are oscillating due to fluctuating macro - sentiment. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and demand expectations are cautious. Hot - rolled coil inventory is decreasing, but it's also high year - on - year [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating downward. The arrival volume at ports has significantly increased, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure as steel mills cut production due to losses [3]. - Coking coal and coke are oscillating. Coking coal supply is tight, while demand has improved. Coke production has increased, but downstream steel mills purchase on a just - in - time basis due to compressed profits [5][6]. - Thermal coal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term due to the situation at production areas. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3295 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading of steel was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9800 tons. The trading volume in the East China region increased significantly, while that in the North decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and with the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing, and the pace of destocking is accelerating, but the inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined weakly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The total trading volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 1.293 million tons, a 62.44% increase from the previous day; the total trading volume of forward - looking spot was 965000 tons, a 35.15% increase from the previous day. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, with a total shipment volume of 3.2138 billion tons, a 5.15% decrease from the previous period. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, with a total arrival volume of 3.2184 billion tons, a 58.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports increased significantly this week. The overall valuation of iron ore is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure. As steel mills cut production due to losses, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and prices face correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - commodity: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4] - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The coking coal and coke futures market showed a pattern of mixed gains and losses and oscillating consolidation. The customs clearance volume of imported coal increased slightly, and traders were optimistic about the market and were reluctant to lower prices, with the overall trading atmosphere improving [5]. - Logic and views: For coking coal, safety inspections are being carried out in some domestic production areas, and the customs clearance of imported coal is continuously recovering, but the overall supply is still tight. On the demand side, a new round of price increases for coke is imminent, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm has improved compared with before. For coke, the profits of coking enterprises have improved, and production has increased. On the demand side, downstream steel mills' profits are compressed, and they mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Sideways [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Inter - period: None [6] - Inter - commodity: None [6] - Futures - spot: None [6] - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: At production areas, coal prices are strong. Supply in some areas has shrunk due to safety inspections. The inventory level in Inner Mongolia is not high, and miners are optimistic about the future. The transportation by platform traders has improved, and the number of coal - pulling trucks at some mines with large previous price drops has increased. At ports, although prices have increased, the increase is smaller than that at mines, and traders' expectations are divided. Affected by the decrease in shipments and the increase in production - area prices, traders' quotes have increased, and some are reluctant to sell, while others think the price increase will be limited. Downstream users mainly purchase under long - term contracts and are resistant to high - priced coal. Currently, port inventory is low, with a large year - on - year decrease, and the shipment to ports is slow, so prices are unlikely to decline in the short term. For imports, the price support for imported coal is strong, and rainfall in Indonesia still affects shipments. At the beginning of the month, the imported coal market was stable, and demand was mainly for刚需 [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by production areas, prices will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. Strategy - None [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The steel production and sales are weakening, and the price is oscillating and correcting. The market sentiment of glass and soda ash is declining, and they are oscillating. The consumption of steel is weakening, and the alloy prices are continuously dropping [1][3] - Glass prices are expected to be oscillating weakly, and soda ash prices are also expected to be oscillating weakly. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [2][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market was oscillating weakly. The spot market was mainly for刚需 purchases, and the speculative sentiment weakened. The weekly开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer inventory was 6.3426 billion heavy boxes, a 2.55% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market was oscillating strongly. The downstream demand was continuously weak, mainly for刚需 restocking. The weekly产能 utilization rate was 87.32%, a 1.91% increase from the previous week; the output was 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.8938 million tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With the decline of market sentiment, glass returns to its fundamental pricing logic. The supply has not been effectively cleared, the speculative demand has weakened, the supply - demand is still loose, and the spot price has dropped. The increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the price of the 09 contract [1] - Soda Ash: Currently, the soda ash output is continuously increasing with an expected further increase. The consumption may further weaken, and the inventory growth pressure is large. In the short - term, it is easily affected by news, while in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will suppress the price [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The steel data showed that steel inventory was continuously increasing and consumption was significantly declining. The silicon manganese futures market was oscillating downward. The spot market was in a wait - and - see state. The 6517 grade in the northern market was priced at 5,800 - 5,870 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5,850 - 5,920 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: Affected by the decline in steel prices, the silicon iron futures market tumbled at the end of the session. The silicon iron manufacturers' supplies were tight, and the spot market price was stable. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural block in the main production area was 5,450 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,900 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The output and demand of silicon manganese have slightly increased, the manufacturer inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at a medium level in the same period. The manganese ore quotation to China has slightly increased, and the cost has slightly moved up, supporting the spot price. However, considering the continuous increase in manganese ore port inventory, the cost support is weak, and the industry has obvious over - supply [3] - Silicon Iron: Currently, the silicon iron output is rapidly increasing, the demand has slightly increased, and the manufacturer inventory has increased month - on - month and is at a relatively high level in the same period. The increase in chemical coke price has driven up the cost, supporting the spot price. The industry has obvious over - supply [4] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon Iron: Oscillating [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel**: The strategy is to maintain a "sideways" stance. This includes a neutral view on single - sided trades, with no recommendations for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The strategy is "sideways with a downward bias" for single - sided trades, and no suggestions for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, the strategy is "sideways"; for coke, it's "sideways with a downward bias". There are no recommendations for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [6]. - **Steam Coal**: No investment strategy is provided [7]. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The overall steel market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction. With low raw material prices, steel mills have decent profits. As the off - season approaches, the production and apparent demand of building materials are gradually declining, and inventory is slightly decreasing, which supports prices. Plates maintain a pattern of strong supply and demand, and good inventory reduction performance supports plate prices. Due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market, steel exports are resilient, and overall steel prices remain stable. Attention should be paid to hot metal production and the implementation of supply - side policies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Currently, iron ore supply continues to increase, while demand slightly decreases. Hot metal production remains at a relatively high level over the years, and inventory is slightly decreasing, with total inventory at a medium level. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand. Be cautious of price rebounds due to unexpectedly strong off - season demand, and continuously monitor hot metal production and iron ore inventory changes during the off - season [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment for coking coal and coke is cautious, with prices moving sideways. For coking coal, factors such as safety inspections and policy adjustments have increased the expectation of supply contraction, but there are still pressures from high inventory and weakening marginal demand. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts in the spot market and considering the consumption off - season, inventory is relatively high, and the overall supply is still loose. Attention should be paid to hot metal production and coke supply changes [5][6]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply in the production areas has contracted, and short - term coal prices are moving sideways. Frequent environmental and safety inspections have affected coal washing plants, and some coal mines have been shut down for rectification. Chemical industries maintain rigid demand, but small and medium - sized traders have low purchasing enthusiasm. In the port market, demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small. In the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,108 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the futures market was dull, and the spot market transactions were average, with 104,000 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel is in a continuous inventory reduction state. Low raw material prices lead to good profits for steel mills. As the off - season approaches, building material production and demand decline, and inventory decreases slightly, supporting prices. Plates have strong supply and demand, and good inventory reduction supports prices. Low domestic prices make steel exports resilient [1]. - **Strategy**: Single - sided trades are expected to move sideways, with no recommendations for other types of trades [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: As of yesterday's close, the iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 707 yuan/ton, up 1.00%. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports rose slightly. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills mainly replenished inventory as needed. The total iron ore transactions at major ports nationwide were 787,000 tons, a 17.07% decrease from the previous day; the total forward - looking spot transactions were 1.415 million tons (11 transactions), a 14.96% decrease from the previous day (mine transactions were 820,000 tons) [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, iron ore supply is increasing, demand is slightly decreasing, hot metal production is relatively high, inventory is slightly decreasing, and total inventory is at a medium level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Be cautious of price rebounds during the off - season [3]. - **Strategy**: Single - sided trades are expected to move sideways with a downward bias, with no recommendations for other types of trades [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures moved sideways. For coke, traders mainly reduced inventory, and steel mills continued to control raw material procurement. Recently, some enterprises' supply has decreased due to environmental inspections and inventory pressure. For coking coal, frequent safety inspections in the main production areas during the safety month have reduced supply. Coking enterprises mainly purchase raw coal as needed, and the market is mostly in a wait - and - see mode. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal is at a low level [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, supply contraction expectations are rising, but high inventory and weakening demand pressures remain. For coke, after price cuts and in the off - season, inventory is relatively high, and supply is loose [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to move sideways, while coke is expected to move sideways with a downward bias. No recommendations for other types of trades [6]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are moving sideways. Frequent environmental and safety inspections have affected coal washing plants, and some coal mines have been shut down. Chemical industries maintain rigid demand, but small and medium - sized traders have low purchasing enthusiasm. In the port market, demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small. The price difference between domestic and imported low - calorie coal has widened [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In the short - term, coal price support from demand is insufficient, and with the rainy season, the substitution effect of hydropower is strengthening. In the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]. - **Strategy**: No investment strategy is provided [7].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-20 玻璃纯碱：成交略有好转，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡偏强。现货方面，市场成交好转，下游拿货情绪较好。 供需与逻辑：近期玻璃产量呈现下降趋势。然而由于地产和深加工需求恢复不足，导致补库力度和持续性不强， 玻璃累库明显，去库压力较大，价格缺乏向上动力，后期高温梅雨季节不利于玻璃储存，企业降价出货降库的意 向或更加强烈。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面窄幅震荡。现货方面，市场需求一般，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：受碱厂检修增加影响，近期纯碱产量有所下滑，但仍维持宽松状态。目前光伏增量放缓，纯碱需求 提升空间有限，去库压力仍然偏大，关注后续碱厂夏检情况及年度新增产能投产进度。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场相对谨慎，黑色震荡偏弱 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：市场情绪一般，铁合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日市场整体震荡运行，期货盘面波动加大。现货方面，主流钢招暂未最终定价。整体来看，受到行 业利润影响，硅锰产量继续下降，整体处于历年低位水平，铁水产量高位回落，硅锰需求 ...