Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, steel prices may rise further. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to expand. [4] - The coking coal and coke market is currently in a balanced supply - demand state. The supply of domestic coking coal in October is expected to be relatively stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. The price of coking coal is supported by policies, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profits. [10][11] - The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment is optimistic after the holiday, the global iron ore shipment has increased in the third quarter, and the domestic terminal demand is weakening while overseas steel use remains high. [17] - For ferrosilicon, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the current price is not suitable for short - selling. For manganese - silicon, the demand is under pressure, but the valuation is neutral, and the cost - side manganese ore inventory is at a low level. [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 863310 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3760 tons (0.4%); the total inventory was 1600720 tons, a week - on - week increase of 127860 tons (8.7%); the weekly consumption was 751430 tons, with a 32.8% decrease in building materials consumption and a 7.8% decrease in plate consumption. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai and Beijing increased slightly. [3] - **Logical Analysis**: The black - metal sector rebounded at the bottom during the night session yesterday. Some steel mills reduced production, and the inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a rapid decline in apparent demand. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, and if the downstream demand recovers in October, the price may rise. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to expand. [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Go long on steel at low prices; Arbitrage: Go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; Options: Wait and see. [5][7][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.6%. The daily output of raw coal decreased by 10300 tons, and the inventory increased by 2500 tons. The import market of Mongolian coking coal was sluggish after the holiday. The prices of coke and coking coal in different ports and regions were provided. [9] - **Logical Analysis**: The risk of the double - coking market's decline before the holiday has been released, and it is showing strength after the holiday. The supply of domestic coking coal in October is expected to be stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. The price of coking coal is supported by policies, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profits. [10][11] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Go long on coking coal at low prices with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see; Futures - cash: Wait and see. [12] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on price competition. The New York Fed Chairman supported further interest - rate cuts in 2025. The sales of top - 100 real - estate enterprises in China rebounded in September. The spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port increased slightly, and the basis of the main iron - ore futures contract was 56. [13][14][16] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron - ore price rose 0.95% during the night session. The global iron - ore shipment increased in the third quarter, and the domestic terminal demand is weakening while overseas steel use remains high. The iron - ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. [17] - **Trading Strategies**: No specific strategies provided in the given text. Ferrosilicon and Manganese - Silicon - **Related Information**: The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port were provided. The export volume of South African manganese ore decreased in August but increased year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to August increased by 10.66% year - on - year. [20] - **Logical Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the current price is not suitable for short - selling. For manganese - silicon, the demand is under pressure, but the valuation is neutral, and the cost - side manganese ore inventory is at a low level. [22] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options. [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market has shifted to a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to macro - events. For rebar, it is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading; for iron ore, it is expected to move in a volatile manner; for coking coal and coke, a neutral stance of waiting and observing is advised [5][36][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: The rebar market is expected to shift to a volatile pattern. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading. The static valuation has returned to a neutral level. Attention should be paid to the outcomes of Sino - US economic and trade talks, signals from the Politburo meeting, the implementation of crude steel production restrictions, and the situation of coking coal futures position limits [5][6] - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal increased due to production over - inspection, driving up the price of steel. The spot price of rebar in Hangzhou rose by 200 yuan/ton to 3490 yuan/ton week - on - week, the futures price of the rebar 10 contract rose by 209 yuan/ton to 3356 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly narrowed to 134 yuan [9][14] - **Steel Mill Profits**: The profits of long - process steel mills expanded, with an estimated profit of about 378 yuan/ton in East China. The profits of short - process steel mills improved, with a profit of about 105 yuan/ton for flat - rate electricity. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 63.64% (+3.47) [20] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 tons to 211.96 tons, apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons to 216.58 tons, and inventory decreased by 4.62 tons to 538.64 tons [27] - **Valuation**: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price rose to near the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces, and the static valuation has returned to a neutral level [29] - **Key Data/Policy/News**: Major events include the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, the upcoming release of a stable growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a coal mine production inspection notice, and Sino - US economic and trade talks [31] Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: A neutral stance of waiting and observing is recommended. For coking coal, the short - term supply - demand pattern is tight, and price support is strong. For coke, there is still an expectation of price increases [36][37] - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices increased, with domestic and foreign coal prices rising. Coke prices continued to rise, with both spot and futures prices increasing [39][55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For coking coal, supply is affected by factors such as production adjustments in major producing areas, and demand is strong. For coke, supply is temporarily shrinking, and demand is strong, with low inventory levels [36] - **Inventory Situation**: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased, with upstream de - stocking being obvious. The overall inventory of coke slightly decreased [53][70] Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner at a high level and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black metal varieties [74] - **Market Review**: The iron ore futures price adjusted downward from a high level last week. The spot prices of various grades of iron ore increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract rose by 17.5 yuan/ton to 802.5 yuan/ton [74][75] - **Supply Analysis**: Domestic production has recovered, with an increase in the daily output of iron concentrate powder. Global shipments have slightly increased, with an increase in Brazilian shipments. Port arrivals and port clearance volumes have both declined, and port inventories have increased [89][90][101] - **Demand Analysis**: The daily output of hot metal is basically flat, steel mills have good profits, and the replenishment rhythm for iron ore is maintained [74] - **Inventory Situation**: Port inventories of iron ore have increased, and the total inventory of ports and steel mills has also increased [106]