大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 1.本周，五大钢材品种供应 863.31 万吨，周环比降 3.76 万吨，降幅为 0.4%；总库存 1600.72 万吨，周环比增 127.86 万吨，增幅 8.7%；周消费量为 751.43 万吨，其中建材 消费环比降 32.8%，板材消费环比降 7.8%。 2.工信部最新数据显示，2025 年前八个月，我国规模以上工业中小企业增加值同比增 长 7.6%，增速比大型企业高 3.3 个百分点。8 月份，中小企业出口指数为 51.9%，连续 17 个月处于扩张区间。 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3240 元（+10），北京地区 3170（+10），上海地区热卷 3350 元（+20），天津地区热卷 3290 元（+1 ...

景区门票及相关服务价格是游客关注的热点。市发改委提前部署，于9月28日对南山、北固山等市 区重点景区开展了节前价格行为专项抽查与政策提醒。从抽查结果来看，目前市区各重点景区价格行为 整体规范，均能清晰公示门票价格、相关服务收费标准及优惠人群（如老年人、学生、军人等）的优惠 政策，并严格按照公示内容执行，未发现违规收费现象。 为营造安心、放心的节日消费环境，保障重要民生商品市场供应和价格稳定，市发改委近期组织开 展系列市场价格巡查与抽查工作，聚焦景区价格行为规范与民生商品保供稳价，确保市民和游客度过一 个欢乐祥和的假期。 保障节日期间"菜篮子""米袋子"量足价稳同样是重中之重。9月29日，市发改委收费处会同价格监 测中心，对市区部分价格调控实体网点开展了专项巡查，重点检查平价菜品供应、标价签使用、惠民政 策执行及商品备货情况。 在价格惠民方面，各网点严格执行合作协议要求，每周提供多种低于市场均价销售的蔬菜和肉禽蛋 油等商品。节假日期间，更进一步扩大优惠范围与幅度，半数日常优惠农副产品的优惠幅度不低于 20%，切实让利于民。部分网点还将参与促销的平价商品种类进行了扩展，丰富了市民选择。 北固山景区负责人介绍，随着 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors and varieties having their own characteristics and influencing factors. In the macro - financial sector, the short - term trend of stock index futures is strong, and the short - term strategy of treasury bond futures can consider a steepening strategy. In the black sector, prices are expected to fluctuate. In the agricultural products sector, most varieties face supply - demand imbalances and price pressures. In the energy - chemical sector, the supply - demand relationship of crude oil is changing, and other products follow different trends based on their own fundamentals [9][10][12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Information - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association solicits opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)" [6]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has once again reached 3600 points, and margin trading balances have returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time since July 2015 [6]. - US President Trump signs executive orders to impose additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [6]. - Express delivery prices in Guangdong have increased, with the base price per ticket rising by 0.4 yuan [6]. - Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky next week to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - The Fed's Daly says policy may need adjustment in the coming months, and there is still much work to do to bring inflation down to 2% [7]. 2. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to continue the trend - following idea. The A - share market has shown a strong upward trend recently, with increased trading volume and margin trading balances reaching a high level. Trump's tariff plan on chips and semiconductors may have an impact. The stock index has rebounded and returned to the trend after a pull - back [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - A short - term steepening strategy can be considered. The capital market is loose, and the bond market is under pressure but not weak. Attention should be paid to whether the capital level can be maintained at 1.3 - 1.35% [10]. 3. Black Sector Overall Market - Policy continues to emphasize "anti - involution" with a looser tone. Market sentiment has been realized in previous price increases, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Demand is seasonally weak, but the decline is limited in the medium - term. Supply is expected to remain strong. Raw material prices are firm, and steel and ore prices are expected to oscillate [12]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel spot prices have increased slightly, but trading volume has weakened compared to the previous day. Iron ore prices in Shandong are basically stable. The price increase is due to the rise in raw material prices such as coking coal [13][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may enter a high - level oscillation stage, and trading should be cautious. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there are also downward pressure factors. The exchange has adjusted trading limits, and "anti - involution" has affected the market [16]. Ferroalloys - The price bubble of silicon - based ferroalloys has disappeared. The medium - to - long - term view is to short on rallies. Strategies such as long the spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese or reverse spreads of silicomanganese can be considered [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market has seen a decline in spot prices and an expected increase in factory inventory [18]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Social inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. Refinery production is accelerating, and demand is weak, so zinc prices are expected to decline [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The market expects a production cut in Jiangxi. If it happens, it will be beneficial to lithium carbonate prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be strong [21]. Industrial Silicon - The main contradiction is the resumption progress of large - scale manufacturers. The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and downstream photovoltaic policies [22]. Polysilicon - The policy expectation has cooled down, and the market may return to fundamental and warehouse - receipt games. The supply is in surplus, and attention should be paid to whether policies can boost terminal demand [23]. 5. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies. International and domestic demand is weak, and there are concerns about future production increases [25][26]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to expected increases in imported processed sugar. However, low - absorption demand during the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays should be noted. International sugar supply is expected to be in surplus [28][29]. Eggs - The 09 contract price has reached a record low. It is recommended to short on rallies and be cautious about bottom - fishing. Supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and demand is currently weak [31]. Apples - A light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of new - season apples [32][33]. Corn - Corn prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Supply and demand are both under pressure, but there is also bottom support. It is recommended to focus on market sentiment and policy implementation [34]. Red Dates - It is recommended to observe. The production is still uncertain, and the market is affected by various news [35]. Pigs - Short - term spot market is supply - strong and demand - weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and consider a 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy [35]. 6. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ is increasing supply, but the growth space is limited. Demand is affected by trade uncertainties. The market may shift to a supply - surplus situation, and it is advisable to short on rallies [38]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow crude oil. The market has no main logic, and factors such as sanctions and seasonal demand affect the price [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively weak [40]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate slightly in the short - term. Short - term long positions can be considered after a pull - back, but be cautious about chasing high prices [41]. Methanol - Methanol follows the overall commodity trend. Supply is weak, and inventory is increasing. It is recommended to sell call options [42]. Caustic Soda - The supply of caustic soda in Shandong is high, and the sales pressure of chlor - alkali enterprises is obvious. The price is expected to decline, and a short - bias strategy is recommended [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt follows crude oil. The market has no main logic, and it is in a seasonal off - season with slow inventory reduction [45]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices are in a downward trend. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak in the short - term. The price may follow crude oil [46]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot trading [47]. Logs - Log prices have increased. The market is affected by capital, and short - term observation is recommended. Hedging can be considered at high prices [47]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to oscillate upward. Domestic demand has improved, and export factors may support the price, but the actual export situation needs further observation [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that zinc faces a situation of surplus in the long - term, which will put pressure on its price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,190 yuan/ton, up 0.07%, and the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,655.5 dollars/ton, up 0.74%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 140,017 lots, a decrease of 82,058 lots, and the trading volume of LME zinc was 6,713 lots, an increase of 346 lots [1]. - **Position and Premium**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 119,170 lots, a decrease of 737 lots, and the open interest of LME zinc was 216,461 lots, an increase of 3,291 lots. The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 6 dollars/ton to - 27 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1,903 tons, a decrease of 150 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a decrease of 325 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 70,225 tons, an increase of 3,450 tons [1]. 3.2 News - The Q1 monetary policy report of the People's Bank of China states that it will give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and explore and expand the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions. The price control idea should shift from preventing "price gouging" to preventing "low - price dumping". The expansion of Chinese government debt remains sustainable, and there is still room for financial support for consumption [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [2].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to create a favorable monetary and financial environment to support a reasonable recovery in prices, highlighting the importance of addressing deep-seated supply and demand structural contradictions [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Growth - Current monetary supply growth continues to outpace economic growth, yet prices remain low, indicating that merely increasing money supply without improving supply-demand relationships will not effectively boost demand [1] - The shift in price control strategy is necessary, moving from preventing "price gouging" to preventing "low-price dumping," as excessive production and price competition can suppress prices further [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Dynamics - Companies are encouraged to transition from "price for volume" strategies to "quality for success," focusing on technological innovation, brand building, service quality, and market segmentation as future operational directions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism" by the Central Committee and the State Council aims to deepen price reform and enhance the price governance mechanism, which is essential for improving resource allocation efficiency and macroeconomic governance during the high-quality development phase [1]. Group 1: Price Governance Mechanism - The price governance mechanism is crucial for resource allocation efficiency, impacting every transaction in daily life and ensuring a well-functioning market [1]. - Currently, 97.5% of commodity and service prices in China are determined by the market, with an average annual CPI increase of approximately 1.6%, indicating a well-structured government pricing mechanism that supports steady economic development [1]. Group 2: Key Tasks and Mechanisms - The "Opinions" outline key tasks including the establishment of four mechanisms: a market price formation mechanism, a price guidance mechanism for key sectors, a price regulation mechanism to maintain reasonable price levels, and a transparent market price supervision mechanism, along with strengthening the foundational capabilities of price governance [2]. - The emphasis is on allowing the market to determine prices wherever possible, which is expected to guide enterprises towards innovation and transformation [2]. Group 3: Regulation and Supervision - Price regulation is necessary, especially in public utilities and services, to ensure that prices remain within a reasonable range, addressing the direct impact on consumers and businesses [3]. - A transparent and predictable price supervision system is essential for maintaining market order and enhancing confidence among business entities, necessitating a comprehensive regulatory framework to prevent violations and promote fair competition [3].

Group 1: Core Views - The release of the "Opinions on Improving Price Governance Mechanism" aims to enhance market price formation, innovation in price guidance, and optimization of price regulation mechanisms to establish a high-level price governance system [1] - The goal is to improve resource allocation efficiency and enhance macroeconomic governance by refining the price governance mechanism [1][2] Group 2: Price Stability and Macro Control - Maintaining reasonable price levels is a key objective of macroeconomic regulation, with a target inflation rate of around 2% set for 2025 [2] - The "Opinions" emphasize the need for coordinated efforts between price policies and other macroeconomic policies such as fiscal, monetary, and employment policies to enhance price control effectiveness [2][3] Group 3: Market-oriented Price Reform - The "Opinions" call for deepening market-oriented price reforms in various sectors, including electricity and natural gas, and establishing a market-based pricing mechanism for essential goods and services [4][5] - The current marketization level of commodity and service prices in China has reached 97.5% [5] Group 4: Agricultural Price Policies - The "Opinions" propose to improve agricultural price policies to ensure stable and safe supply of essential agricultural products, including the establishment of a coordinated mechanism for prices, subsidies, and insurance [7][8] - The focus is on ensuring that farmers' incomes are protected while allowing market mechanisms to play a larger role in price formation [8] Group 5: Public Utility Pricing Mechanism - The "Opinions" outline the need to clarify the boundaries between government investment and user payment in public utilities, ensuring fair pricing and cost recovery [9][10] - The aim is to optimize pricing structures for public services, including water, electricity, and gas, while considering the affordability for the public [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issuance of the "Opinions on Improving Price Governance Mechanism" by the Central Committee and the State Council, aiming to deepen price reform and enhance the price governance mechanism in China. Group 1: Key Points of the Opinions - The direction of reform adheres to the socialist market economy, allowing the market to determine prices where possible, facilitating the efficient flow of high-quality production factors, and effectively serving the construction of a unified national market [2][5] - The opinions emphasize the need to improve the pricing mechanism for refined oil, deepen the market-oriented reform of natural gas prices, and accelerate the establishment of a coal market pricing mechanism [2][3] - It calls for the development of important commodity spot and futures markets, optimizing rules for futures listing, trading, and regulation, and solidifying the foundation for market price formation [3][4] Group 2: Price Regulation and Monitoring - The opinions propose to abolish price policies that hinder the construction of a unified national market and fair competition, preventing inappropriate government intervention in price formation [4][10] - It emphasizes the need for a transparent and predictable market price regulation mechanism, enhancing the supervision of market price behavior and maintaining market order [13][27] - The article highlights the importance of strengthening anti-monopoly regulation and enforcement to prevent and curb monopolistic behaviors in key sectors such as transportation, tourism, and education [4][9] Group 3: Agricultural and Energy Pricing Policies - The opinions outline the need to improve agricultural pricing policies to ensure stable and safe supply of food and important agricultural products, including mechanisms for price, subsidies, and insurance [3][23] - It also emphasizes the establishment of pricing policies that promote green and low-carbon transformation in energy, including mechanisms for natural gas power generation and energy storage [6][24] Group 4: Public Services and Digital Economy - The opinions call for the establishment of pricing policies for public services to ensure equitable access, including government-guided pricing for basic services in public and private institutions [4][24] - It highlights the need for innovative pricing policies for public data to facilitate the safe and efficient development of the digital economy [25][11] Group 5: Implementation and Coordination - The article stresses the importance of inter-departmental coordination and collaboration to effectively implement the opinions, ensuring that various tasks are clearly defined and executed [15][30] - It also mentions the need for a robust price monitoring and early warning system to enhance the timeliness and relevance of price monitoring [28][29]