Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI year-on-year will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets [3] - It is anticipated that the RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate in 2026, leading to a re-evaluation of Chinese assets by foreign investors [3][12] - The report highlights that during historical phases of PPI recovery, both A-share and Hong Kong stock ROE have shown significant improvement, indicating a positive correlation between PPI growth and corporate profitability [16] Historical Review - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI year-on-year growth, particularly during phases of PPI recovery and RMB appreciation [7][9] - The report outlines four cycles of RMB appreciation and depreciation since 2015, noting that during appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks generally experienced price increases [10][12] - The report identifies that the leading sectors during the appreciation phases were internet and cyclical stocks, benefiting from improved profitability expectations [15] Profitability Trends - The report indicates that during periods of PPI year-on-year growth, there is a notable improvement in ROE for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a direct impact of PPI on corporate earnings [16] - The report notes that as of the third quarter of 2025, A-share ROE has stabilized at the bottom, and Hong Kong stock ROE is expected to improve alongside PPI growth in 2026 [3][22] Foreign Investment Insights - The report highlights that foreign capital has been reassessing Chinese assets, with a significant increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs in 2025, indicating heightened interest in core assets [4] - The report mentions that the A-H premium is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting increased foreign interest in Hong Kong-listed core assets [4] - It is noted that over 30 major market cap companies in the A-share and Hong Kong markets belong to sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and quality dividend stocks, which are expected to benefit from improving profitability [3][4] Sector Focus - The report identifies key sectors expected to benefit from improving ROE in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI-related core assets), and cyclical sectors [3] - It emphasizes that sectors with strong competitive advantages, such as high-end manufacturing and specialty consumption, are likely to attract foreign investment [3] - The report also points out that domestic funds have room to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with significant portions of public fund portfolios allocated to Hong Kong [4][22]

刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 冯彧 A0230123080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘雅婧 (8621)23297818× liuyj@swsresearch.com 2025 年 07 月 08 日 外资通过 Keystone 正在流入港股 市场 ——港股行业比较系列之资金观察 相关研究 证券分析师 ⚫ 2025 年以来港股市场关注度提升，投资者尤其关注外资是否流入港股。我们认为外资正 在流入港股市场，主要体现在港股 IPO 基石投资者和 A-H 溢价收敛、部分个股出现港股 溢价等方面。 ⚫ 风险提示：全球流动性宽松不及预期，外资流入速度放缓。 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued its weak performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.59% to 23892.56 points, the Tech Index down 1.72% to 5239.71 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.85% to 8655.33 points [1] Impact of External Events - Airstrikes by the air force on Iranian nuclear and military facilities have led to a decrease in market risk appetite [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced tariffs on various steel household appliances starting June 23, impacting market sentiment [1] Sector Performance - Technology stocks experienced a significant pullback, with Xpeng Motors down over 5% and Horizon Robotics down over 3% [1] - Innovative drug concept stocks also retreated, with Boan Biotechnology down 9.68% and Connaught B down 6.59% [1] Safe-Haven Assets - Gold and shipping sectors showed resilience, with gold stocks rising due to increased risk aversion; for instance, Chifeng Jilong Gold surged over 10% and Shandong Gold rose 5.99% [2] - Oil and gas stocks saw substantial gains, with Shandong Molong up over 70% and Sinopec Oilfield Services up 25% [2] - Shipping stocks also rose, with COSCO Shipping Energy up over 8% and COSCO Shipping Holdings up 5.38% [2] Market Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the market, suggesting that Hong Kong will play a crucial role in the restructuring of the global financial order, enhancing the prosperity of quality assets in the region [2] - The A-H premium index has been fluctuating, currently at 128.05, indicating a downward trend [3] - Since last year, the overall performance of Hong Kong stocks has outpaced A-shares, with the A-H premium index moving away from the previous range of 130-150 [3] Investment Opportunities - The focus for investment opportunities in the second half of 2025 will be on broad growth sectors such as internet technology and pharmaceuticals, while new consumer stocks may face short-term challenges [3] - Specific stocks like CATL, BYD, China Merchants Bank, WuXi AppTec, and Yihua Energy are currently at a discount in the A-H market, while stocks like Hengrui Medicine and Chifeng Jilong Gold have an A-H premium rate below 10% [3]