2025 年全年新签70 个iCMC 项目，较2024 年进一步加速（新签iCMC项目53 个），主要受益于中美两 大地区的强劲增长；赢得22 个iCMC项目，与2024 年水平基本相当（23 个）。根据公司在JPM 大会的 分享，在70 个新签iCMC 项目中，新型ADC 贡献了超过一半的项目数，包括约20%来自于双抗ADC， 约17%来自于XDC，约10%来自于非肿瘤领域，约5%来自于双载荷ADC。 公司首次披露中长期收入指引，即2025-2030 年收入预计实现30-35%CAGR，快于行业平均增速 （25.6% CAGR）。我们很欣喜看到公司此次在JPM 大会上主动提供了上述中长期公司收入指引及行业 增速展望，我们认为这提升了公司数据披露管理水平，也将帮助投资者更准确地形成对公司中长期收入 及快速增长的ADC 外包服务行业收入的一致预期。除上述中长期收入指引外，公司预计：（1）至2030 年，20%收入来自于XDC 类型，20%收入来自于商业化项目；（ 2）在2026/2027/2028 年，公司有望实 现15+/25+/40+个PPQ 项目的成分生产，实现>2/4-6/8-10 个ADC 药物获批， ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 公司 2025 年正面盈利预告显示的初步业绩大致符合我们预期。维持 "买入"评级，目标价 75 港元。 公司通过自建及收购加快推进产能建设，2026 年资本开支预计将进 一步提升至 17 亿元（vs. 2025 年：12.2 亿元）；维持此前中长期资本 开支指引（预计到 2029 年超过 70 亿元投入产能建设）。一方面，公 司已自建中国、新加坡双重生产布局，未来海内外生产基地有望进 一步扩大规模：（1）中国：无锡 DP3 产能已于 2025 年 7 月实现了 GMP 放行（产能：700 万瓶/年），使得无锡整体生物偶联 DP 产能（包 含 DP1、DP2、DP3）达到 1500 万瓶/年。展望未来，无锡两条新 DP 产线，即 DP5（1200 万瓶/年）、DP6（1000 万瓶/年），预计于 2027 药明合联（2268.HK）：2025 年初步 业绩大致符合预期 2026 年 2 月 4 日 | 评级 | | | --- | --- | | 目标价（港元） | 75.0 | | 潜在升幅/降幅 | +24% | | 目前股价（港元） | 60.6 | | 52 周内股 ...

公司 2025 年正面盈利预告显示的初步业绩大致符合我们预期。维持 "买入"评级，目标价 75 港元。 阳景 首席医药分析师 Jing_yang@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6434 胡泽宇 CFA 浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 药明合联（2268.HK）：2025 年初步 业绩大致符合预期 公司通过自建及收购加快推进产能建设，2026 年资本开支预计将进 一步提升至 17 亿元（vs. 2025 年：12.2 亿元）；维持此前中长期资本 开支指引（预计到 2029 年超过 70 亿元投入产能建设）。一方面，公 司已自建中国、新加坡双重生产布局，未来海内外生产基地有望进 一步扩大规模：（1）中国：无锡 DP3 产能已于 2025 年 7 月实现了 GMP 放行（产能：700 万瓶/年），使得无锡整体生物偶联 DP 产能（包 含 DP1、DP2、DP3）达到 1500 万瓶/年。展望未来，无锡两条新 DP 产线，即 DP5（1200 万瓶/年）、DP6（1000 万瓶/年），预计于 2027 医药分析师 ryan_hu@spdbi.com (852) 2808 6446 2026 年 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated robust growth in the first half of 2025, with significant increases in revenue, gross profit, and net profit, driven by a strong order backlog and competitive positioning in the ADC market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.2% - Gross profit reached 980 million yuan, up 82.2% year-on-year - Adjusted net profit (excluding interest and expenses) was 730 million yuan, reflecting a 69.6% increase year-on-year - Adjusted net profit (including interest income and expenses) stood at 800 million yuan, a 50.1% year-on-year growth - Reported net profit was 750 million yuan, marking a 52.7% increase year-on-year [1]. Order Backlog and Market Position - As of H1 2025, the company had an unfulfilled order total of 1.33 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 57.9% - New contract amounts grew by 48.4% year-on-year, with North America showing the highest growth rate - The global ADC market is projected to reach 13.2 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.0% from 2020 to 2024, and expected to grow to 66.2 billion USD by 2030, with an outsourcing rate of approximately 60% [1][2]. Market Share and Competitive Advantage - The company's market share in the ADC sector increased from 9.9% in 2022 to 22.2% in H1 2025 - The company collaborates with 13 out of the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies, reinforcing its leading position in the industry [1][2]. Strategic Expansion and Capital Expenditure - In H1 2025, the company signed 37 new iCMC projects, including 13 winning molecule projects, and added 3 new PPQ projects - The company plans to invest approximately 1.56 billion yuan in capital expenditures in 2025, with around 900 million yuan allocated to the Singapore base and about 450 million yuan to the Wuxi base - Total capital expenditures are expected to exceed 7 billion yuan by 2029, with new capacities including coupling raw liquids, coupling formulations, and payload linkers [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the rapidly expanding ADC CXO industry, with strong technical capabilities and product delivery quality - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 5.99 billion yuan, 8.24 billion yuan, and 10.51 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 47.7%, 37.7%, and 27.5% respectively - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.51 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan, and 2.67 billion yuan, with growth rates of 41.5%, 36.2%, and 29.4% respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 62.2% year-on-year, reaching 2.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025. The gross profit increased by 82.2% to 980 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit (excluding interest and expenses) rose by 69.6% to 730 million yuan [5][11] - The company has a robust order backlog of 1.33 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.9%, with new contract signings growing by 48.4% [11] - The global ADC market is projected to reach 13.2 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.0% from 2020 to 2024, and is expected to grow rapidly to 66.2 billion USD by 2030 [11] - The company’s market share in the ADC outsourcing service sector has increased from 9.9% in 2022 to 22.2% in the first half of 2025, solidifying its position as an industry leader [11] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.7 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 980 million yuan and a net profit of 750 million yuan [5][11] - The company forecasts revenues of 5.99 billion yuan, 8.24 billion yuan, and 10.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 47.7%, 37.7%, and 27.5% [13][14] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 1.51 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan, and 2.67 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 41.5%, 36.2%, and 29.4% [13][14] Capital Expenditure and Expansion - The company plans to invest approximately 1.56 billion yuan in capital expenditures in 2025, with significant investments in its Singapore and Wuxi bases [12] - By 2029, total capital expenditures are expected to exceed 7 billion yuan, aimed at expanding production capacity for various ADC-related products [12]