Group 1: Trade Environment and Risks - The current international trade demand is under significant downward pressure, with the U.S. imposing higher tariffs on various countries, limiting trade agreements' effectiveness[7] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies remains high, with potential impacts on global economic growth difficult to estimate[44] - The risk of indirect economic ties breaking due to U.S. pressure on countries to limit supply chain connections with China is present[44] Group 2: Capital Goods and Investment - A decrease in uncertainty can significantly boost investment willingness in the real economy, with historical data showing that fixed asset formation growth often outpaces overall GDP growth during such periods[28] - The "Tariff 2.0" policy is expected to catalyze a new wave of industrial migration, with China positioned favorably in this transition[33] - U.S. manufacturers and service providers have borne 80% and 88.2% of tariff costs, respectively, which will gradually impact U.S. economic growth and public sentiment[19] Group 3: China's Manufacturing Position - China is likely to play a more critical role in the global manufacturing landscape as the industrial chain is reshaped, gaining export share and improving national confidence[4] - The new industrial migration wave will not only involve China but also other countries, driven by varying tariff rates and the creation of new "cost basins"[33] - The number of countries with greater bilateral trade volumes with China than with the U.S. has significantly increased, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics[43]

Group 1: Tariff Changes - China's tariff on U.S. imports decreased from 125% to 10%, while the U.S. tariff on Chinese imports dropped from 145% to 30%[1] - The previous market expectations for tariff rates were between 45% and 54%, indicating a significant reduction beyond expectations[1] - The weighted average tariff rate for U.S. imports from China in 2024 is approximately 10%, slightly lower than the 12% calculated based on 2017 import values[2] Group 2: Trade Impact - U.S. imports from China increased by 8.9% during the three weeks following the tariff imposition, averaging $1.24 billion per day[4] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to restore trade to a relatively normal state, although the current 30% tariff is still higher than last year's 12%[3] - High-tech products, previously subject to a 25% tariff, now face a combined tariff of 55%, which may limit the decline in exports to the U.S.[5] Group 3: Market Reactions - The capital market may experience a boost in risk appetite, with short-term stock market performance expected to strengthen[7] - International gold prices have retreated over 3%, nearing the low point of $3,202 per ounce observed on May 1[8] - U.S. Treasury yields for 10-year and 30-year bonds rose by 5-6 basis points following the tariff reductions, with yields reaching 1.68% and 1.94% respectively[8]