AI+即时零售
Search documents
阿里巴巴-W(09988):双十一闪购协同效应强化,看好闪购协同增收潜力
Orient Securities· 2025-11-11 07:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 206.11 HKD per share [3][5][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of the flash purchase synergy, which is expected to enhance revenue potential. The company has adjusted its GMV and CMR growth forecasts for FY2026-2028, projecting revenues of 10,165/11,481/12,652 billion CNY and net profits of 1,258/1,744/2,013 billion CNY respectively [3][14]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival has seen an extension in its promotional period and simplification of its promotional strategies, which has improved consumer experience and increased order conversion rates. The synergy between the flash purchase and the main site has been enhanced, contributing significantly to order volume [9][12]. - The report notes that new user orders from flash purchases during the Double Eleven period exceeded 100 million, indicating that flash purchase synergy has become a crucial growth driver for the main site [9][12]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for FY2026-2028 are 10,165 billion CNY, 11,481 billion CNY, and 12,652 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 1,258 billion CNY, 1,744 billion CNY, and 2,013 billion CNY [3][11][14]. - The report provides detailed quarterly financial forecasts, indicating a slight revenue growth in FY2026 compared to FY2025, with a projected revenue of 1,016,593 million CNY [15]. Market Performance - The report includes a performance analysis, showing a relative performance of -4.32% over one month and a significant increase of 70.19% over the past year [6]. Valuation - The report calculates the company's market value at 35,846 billion CNY based on a segment valuation approach, leading to a per-share value of 206.11 HKD [3][17].