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申万宏源证券晨会报告-20251126
Group 1: Higher Education Industry - The core idea is that the higher education sector is expected to see a turnaround due to improved quality standards and supportive policies, particularly with the reintroduction of for-profit classification management in Hunan Province, which may serve as a pilot for national implementation [3][4][14] - The report anticipates that after five years of continuous investment, key indicators of educational quality such as student-to-teacher ratios and per-student funding have met the required standards, suggesting that the investment cycle has peaked and operational efficiency in higher education companies is likely to recover [4][14] - Companies to watch in this sector include Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, New Higher Education, and others, as they are positioned to benefit from the expected recovery and valuation increase [4][14] Group 2: Vocational Education Industry - There is a significant surge in demand for vocational training driven by the increasing number of university graduates and high school leavers entering the labor market, leading to a projected market size of 80 billion yuan in 2025 with a low penetration rate of 5% [4][14] - The report highlights that the youth unemployment rate is higher than the urban average, indicating a growing need for skill training among the 16 to 24 age group, which is expected to further boost the vocational training market [4][14] - Recommended companies in this space include China Oriental Education and Fenbi, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for vocational training [4][14] Group 3: Education Training Industry - The education training sector is undergoing a transformation with a shift towards "franchise operations" after a significant reduction in capacity due to regulatory changes, leading to a supply shortage that has not yet improved [4][14] - The report notes that institutions with strong research capabilities and operational experience are likely to dominate the market, as they are the ones receiving operational licenses [4][14] - Companies such as Good Future, New Oriental, and Excellence Education are expected to expand their capacity and achieve high revenue and profit growth as the industry moves towards a more structured operational model [4][14]