以下文章来源于格致君 ，作者格致君的后花园 格致君 . 穷究一切。 首席推荐语：少生未必是坏事，未来优生优育更重要，人的价值也会更加凸显。 2025年一晃就过去了，各类年末的总结数据又纷至沓来。 最近联合国人口司发了组数字：他们预测2025年中国新生儿可能只有871万左右。也就是说， 中国新生人口 占全球总出生人口的比例，要掉到7%以下了。 就算按2024年中国约954万的新生儿和全球出生人口估算，这个比例也就勉强维持在7.4%上下。而回到上世 纪八十年代，中国新生儿一度占到全球近五分之一。 这一起一落之间，一场巨大的人口结构转型，正在我们眼前静悄悄地上演。 与新生儿数量持续探底形成鲜明对比的，是另一头数据的"膨胀"：2025年，全国高考报名人数冲到1335万， 高校毕业生规模也创下1222万的历史新高。 这一降一升，挤在中间的这代年轻人，正活在一场无声的"人生错配"里。 01 中国人为啥生不动了 中国过去七十年的人口曲线，画出来跟过山车似的。 上世纪五六十年代，每年新生儿动不动就两千多万，那时候一家四五个孩子是常态。到了八十年代，虽然 计划生育了，但因为上一波婴儿潮的孩子陆续到了生育年龄，又推高了一波小高峰 ...

以下文章来源于格致君 ，作者格致君的后花园 格致君 . 穷究一切。 就算按2024年中国约954万的新生儿和全球出生人口估算，这个比例也就勉强维持在7.4%上下。而回 到上世纪八十年代，中国新生儿一度占到全球近五分之一。 这一起一落之间，一场巨大的人口结构转型，正在我们眼前静悄悄地上演。 与新生儿数量持续探底形成鲜明对比的，是另一头数据的"膨胀"：2025年，全国高考报名人数冲到 1335万，高校毕业生规模也创下1222万的历史新高。 这一降一升， 挤在中间的这代年轻人，正活在一场无声的"人生错配"里。 本文来自微信公众号： 格致君 ，作者：格致君的后花园，题图来自：AI生成 2025年一晃就过去了，各类年末的总结数据又纷至沓来。 最近联合国人口司发了组数字：他们预测2025年中国新生儿可能只有871万左右。也就是说， 中国 新生人口占全球总出生人口的比例，要掉到7%以下了。 一、中国人为啥生不动了 中国过去七十年的人口曲线，画出来跟过山车似的。 上世纪五六十年代，每年新生儿动不动就两千多万，那时候一家四五个孩子是常态。到了八十年代， 虽然计划生育了，但因为上一波婴儿潮的孩子陆续到了生育年龄，又推高了一波小高 ...

Group 1: Tariff War and Its Impact - The tariff war initiated by the U.S. has led to a significant decrease in China's exports to the U.S., with a reported drop of 33.1% in August [3][4] - The U.S. has imposed a total of 50% tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has responded with a 30% tariff on U.S. imports, indicating a lack of complete parity in the tariff structure [4][5] - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China have seen some flexibility from both sides, with China showing willingness to negotiate on certain tariffs, such as the 20% fentanyl tariff [5][14] Group 2: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends - FDI in China has declined significantly, dropping to levels seen in 2010, with a decrease of over $100 billion compared to previous highs [21][22] - Despite the decline in FDI, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) is on the rise, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [21][22] - The competitive landscape in China has made it challenging for foreign companies to establish profitable operations, leading to a natural decline in FDI [21][22] Group 3: Employment and Industry Dynamics - The shift in industry dynamics suggests that manufacturing alone may not create sufficient employment opportunities, as the sector's contribution to non-agricultural employment is less than 15% [27][28] - The rise of service industries and flexible employment models is becoming increasingly important for job creation, as traditional manufacturing jobs decline [31][32] - The trend of "China +1" indicates that while companies may establish operations abroad, they are not fully abandoning their domestic bases, reflecting a more integrated global supply chain strategy [16][17] Group 4: Global Supply Chain Adjustments - The concept of a "flexible global value chain" is emerging, allowing Chinese companies to adapt quickly to tariff changes by shifting production to countries with lower tariffs [16][17] - The reliance on Chinese suppliers remains high, as many products lack viable alternatives, making it difficult for U.S. companies to fully disengage from Chinese manufacturing [13][18] - The challenges faced by foreign companies in China are often due to increased competition from local firms, rather than solely the impact of tariffs [20][21]