丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建材 [Table_Title] 地产政策预期升温，关注消费建材优质龙头 ——建材周专题 2025W47 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 地产政策预期升温，关注消费建材优质龙头 基本面：水泥价格小幅下降，玻璃库存由降转升 继续推荐非洲链和存量链，关注 AI 特种布回调后机会 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 李金宝 李浩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 地产政策预期升温，关注消费建材优质龙头 2] ——建材周专题 2025W47 [Table_Summary2] 地产政策预期升温，关注消费建材优质龙头 行业下行斜率加大，关注地产政策预期升温。近期行业下行压力加大，市场定向降低购房负担 等政策工具预期升温。深度降息在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The real estate sales continue to weaken, with a focus on policy expectations. In October 2025, the total sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 40.6% year-on-year, and the sales area dropped by 40.0% year-on-year, indicating a significant expansion in the decline [5][6] - Cement prices have slightly decreased month-on-month, while glass inventory has also decreased [6][28] - The report continues to recommend the African supply chain and special fabrics, highlighting opportunities in AI special fabrics due to rising demand and high supply barriers [8] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market - The sales data has deteriorated since Q4, with a notable decline in both sales amount and area. The latest high-frequency transaction data shows a year-on-year decrease of 45% in the rolling transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities [5][6] - The downward pressure in the real estate market has been evident since April 2023, and the probability of policy easing is gradually increasing [5] Cement Market - As of early November, the domestic cement market demand has remained relatively stable, with a month-on-month price decrease of 0.1%. The average national cement price is 355.97 yuan/ton, down 0.48 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 73.55 yuan/ton year-on-year [6][28] - The cement inventory rate is at 69.52%, which is an increase of 0.37 percentage points month-on-month [28] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market prices have shown slight fluctuations, with some price increases due to local production halts. The average national glass price is 64.81 yuan per weight box, up 0.34 yuan per weight box month-on-month but down 13.43 yuan year-on-year [42] - The total inventory of glass in key monitored provinces is 6016 million weight boxes, a decrease of 184 million weight boxes month-on-month [41][42] Special Fabrics - The report emphasizes the potential of AI special fabrics, driven by increased demand and the high barriers to supply. Companies like Zhongcai Technology are positioned to benefit from domestic substitution in this sector [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 13.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1 billion yuan, up 115%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was approximately 810 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 245% [2][4]. - In Q2, the company reported a revenue of 7.8 billion yuan, a 28% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 155%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of about 560 million yuan, marking a 342% increase [2][4]. - The company's revenue structure for the first half of the year was as follows: fiberglass accounted for 30%, blades 35%, separators 6%, and high-pressure cylinders 4%. The growth rates for these segments were 13%, 84%, 22%, and 18% respectively, with blade revenue showing the most significant increase [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of approximately 20.1% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year. The operating expense ratio was about 11.5%, down 2.8 percentage points, leading to a net profit margin of approximately 7.5%, up 3.1 percentage points [9]. - The special electronic fabric segment saw significant profit improvements, with sales reaching 8.95 million meters, covering a full range of products that have been certified by major domestic and international clients [9]. Market Outlook - The fiberglass industry is currently at a relative bottom in profitability, with the company’s fiberglass segment achieving a net profit margin of approximately 13% [9]. - The wind power sector is experiencing high growth, with the company’s wind blade installation sales reaching approximately 15.3 GW, a 103% increase year-on-year, and an estimated market share of about 30% in the domestic market [9]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of approximately 2.1 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 5 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding valuations of 28, 18, and 12 times [9].