朋友们，今早一翻财经新闻，帮主直接被信息量砸晕了！人民币汇率收复7.09关口，创下一年多新高， 从低点算回来都涨了3457个基点；美联储12月降息25个基点的概率飙到84.9%；就连中美元首都通了电 话，氛围还挺积极。再加上英伟达和谷歌的AI芯片大战、阿里千问拿下新加坡国家AI项目，这一堆消 息凑在一起，可不是简单的热闹，而是给中长线投资者递了份重要信号。 还有个值得注意的点，A股市场的回购潮还在持续，今年累计回购超1300亿元，超百家公司股价翻倍。 这说明上市公司自己都觉得股价被低估了，而且政策也在鼓励回购，这对市场底部形成是重要支撑。再 加上科技部要部署重大科技任务，工业机器人产销两旺，人形机器人也传出量产信号，这些都说明咱们 的产业升级在实实在在推进，优质企业的成长空间还很大。 那这么多信号共振，中长线该怎么布局呢？帮主给大家梳理几个核心思路。首先，汇率升值受益板块可 以重点关注，那些海外业务占比高、出口导向的优质制造业，还有手里有美元资产的企业，都会直接受 益于人民币升值。其次，降息预期下，高股息蓝筹和优质成长股会迎来估值修复，选的时候要盯紧现金 流扎实、研发投入稳定的企业，避开那些业绩忽上忽下的伪优 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) has seen a significant increase of 9.55% in a single day and a total rise of 21.39% over the past five days, driven by short-term catalysts such as domestic lithography machine testing and Huawei's AI computing power announcement, which boosts semiconductor demand. However, the long-term trend is focused on domestic substitution in the semiconductor equipment sector, with potential breakthroughs expected in semiconductor manufacturing in the context of AI technology competition, suggesting investors should maintain attention on this sector [1][5]. Industry Insights - The investment logic in the semiconductor equipment industry is closely tied to domestic substitution and self-sufficiency, particularly in critical areas like lithography and etching machines, where the domestic production rate is below 20%. Chinese companies are making progress from zero to one in these areas, gradually replacing foreign manufacturers. Domestic wafer fabs are shifting from hoarding imported equipment to sourcing from local suppliers, with capital expenditure continuing to rise and orders transitioning from overseas giants to domestic firms, indicating a vast potential for domestic production and a significant volume-price increase effect [3]. Market Performance - Currently, the global semiconductor sales remain at a high peak, with July's sales showing a year-on-year growth of 20.6%. Overseas AI capital expenditure is expected to support the semiconductor industry's prosperity. On the policy front, domestic policies are focusing on supply chain security and self-sufficiency, reducing external dependencies and trade risks, and emphasizing "technology as the forefront" to promote modernization in China. Overall, the long-term logic for semiconductor equipment remains positive, and investors are encouraged to look for opportunities to buy the semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) on dips [5].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strength today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% to 3853.64 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.80% [1] - The semiconductor industry chain remained strong, with significant gains in semiconductor equipment, chips, and related sectors [1] - The overall market sentiment is strong, with over 4400 stocks rising and less than 900 declining [1] Investment Strategy - The current market is driven more by sentiment and valuation, with a clear structural differentiation, particularly in the STAR Market [1] - Two potential future scenarios are identified: continued active micro liquidity leading to sustained market performance, or macroeconomic improvement allowing for broader market expansion [2][6] - Recommended focus on sectors supported by structural themes and fundamentals, such as chip ETFs and photovoltaic ETFs [1][6] Bond Market Insights - The ten-year government bond ETF fell by 0.16%, with a 5-day decline of 0.44%, reflecting a weak trend [2][6] - The core factors influencing bonds remain policy-driven, with the central bank maintaining a steady stance on liquidity [8] - Despite short-term pressures on the macro environment, there is a divergence between macro reality and expectations, impacting long-term bond performance [8] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor equipment ETF rose by 9.55% today, with a 5-day change of 21.39%, driven by events such as domestic lithography machine testing and AI demand from Huawei [9] - The long-term investment logic in the semiconductor sector focuses on domestic substitution and self-sufficiency, particularly in critical areas with low domestic production rates [12] - Global semiconductor sales increased by 20.6% year-on-year in July, supported by overseas AI capital expenditure [11] Economic Outlook - The domestic economy faces short-term pressure, but potential recovery in overseas demand due to the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts may benefit export-oriented sectors [5] - The current economic environment is seen as a normal outcome of "anti-involution" policies aimed at controlling supply-side expansion [5] - Key areas to watch include the progress of US-China tariff negotiations and domestic policy statements [4]