行业热点层面，半导体设备ETF（159516）单日上涨9.55%，近5日涨跌幅达到21.39%。我们认为短期以事件催化居多，包括国产光刻机的测试、制造 消息；华为公布AI算力全景图，进一步利好半导体需求等等。但从长期来看，国产替代是半导体设备领域的主线，在AI科技竞争的背景下，我国有望产 生半导体制造领域新的突破，建议投资者持续关注。 来源：WIND 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币 市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资者注意。 光刻机与半导体设备板块的投资逻辑联系紧密。半导体设备行业的投资逻辑主要围绕国产替代和自主可控展开，尤其在光刻机、蚀刻机等国产化率低 于20%的关键环节，中国企业正从0到1突破，逐步替代海外厂商。国内晶圆厂也逐渐从囤积进口设备，转向本土设备供应商，资本开支持续提升，订单从 海外巨头转向国内企业，国产化空间庞大，量价齐升效应显著。因此，光刻机层面的消息与板块投资逻辑较为吻合。 来源：诚通证券 基本面角度，目前 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strength today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% to 3853.64 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.80% [1] - The semiconductor industry chain remained strong, with significant gains in semiconductor equipment, chips, and related sectors [1] - The overall market sentiment is strong, with over 4400 stocks rising and less than 900 declining [1] Investment Strategy - The current market is driven more by sentiment and valuation, with a clear structural differentiation, particularly in the STAR Market [1] - Two potential future scenarios are identified: continued active micro liquidity leading to sustained market performance, or macroeconomic improvement allowing for broader market expansion [2][6] - Recommended focus on sectors supported by structural themes and fundamentals, such as chip ETFs and photovoltaic ETFs [1][6] Bond Market Insights - The ten-year government bond ETF fell by 0.16%, with a 5-day decline of 0.44%, reflecting a weak trend [2][6] - The core factors influencing bonds remain policy-driven, with the central bank maintaining a steady stance on liquidity [8] - Despite short-term pressures on the macro environment, there is a divergence between macro reality and expectations, impacting long-term bond performance [8] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor equipment ETF rose by 9.55% today, with a 5-day change of 21.39%, driven by events such as domestic lithography machine testing and AI demand from Huawei [9] - The long-term investment logic in the semiconductor sector focuses on domestic substitution and self-sufficiency, particularly in critical areas with low domestic production rates [12] - Global semiconductor sales increased by 20.6% year-on-year in July, supported by overseas AI capital expenditure [11] Economic Outlook - The domestic economy faces short-term pressure, but potential recovery in overseas demand due to the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts may benefit export-oriented sectors [5] - The current economic environment is seen as a normal outcome of "anti-involution" policies aimed at controlling supply-side expansion [5] - Key areas to watch include the progress of US-China tariff negotiations and domestic policy statements [4]