特斯拉 20260129 摘要 特斯拉 CyberCab 测试稳步推进，已在奥斯汀、旧金山等六地进行测试， 预计车辆制造成本低于 3 万美元，每英里运营成本降至 0.2 美元，计划 2026 年 4 月开始大规模量产。 特斯拉 Robotaxi 于 2026 年 1 月在奥斯汀正式面向公众运营，显著降 低人力成本，加速车队扩张。截至 1 月 28 日，奥斯汀和旧金山分别有 72 辆和 168 辆 Robotaxi 投入运营。 特斯拉持续升级 AI 芯片，从 HW 1.0 到 HW 4.0，算力提升至 500 TOPS。未来 AI5 芯片算力预计达 2000-2,500 TOPS，采用 3 纳米工 艺，并计划每 9 个月推出新一代 AI 芯片。 特斯拉积极拓展中东和欧洲市场，在荷兰等欧洲国家进行 FSD 测试，预 计荷兰 2026 年 2 月授予国家批准，意大利、德国和法国已开放 FSD 体 验项目，阿联酋成为中东市场重点。 特斯拉 FSD 订阅用户数量显著增长，截至 2025 年底达 110 万，每月 订阅人数 33 万，全球车队每日收集数据相当于 500 年以上连续驾驶数 据，为自动驾驶技术迭代提供支持。 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Disco Corporation with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 79,000 JPY, corresponding to a 48x FY26E PE [1]. Core Insights - Disco Corporation is a leading player in the global semiconductor wafer cutting and thinning equipment market, maintaining a market share of 70%-80%. The company has built a comprehensive product lineup around its core technologies of "cutting, grinding, and polishing," and continues to demonstrate industry-leading profitability through its integrated business model of "equipment + consumables + services" [1][15]. - The upgrade of AI chips is expected to drive rapid growth in demand for high-end thinning and polishing equipment. The transition to HBM4/4E and 3nm processes will necessitate thinner wafers (<30µm), with Disco's unique dry polishing technology poised to secure a significant market share in the HBM4 era [2][16]. - Disco's integrated business model, which includes high-margin consumables (approximately 25% of revenue), allows for consistent revenue generation and smooths out cyclical fluctuations. The company maintains a gross margin of 69%-70% due to increased consumable density driven by higher material hardness and precision requirements [3][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global AI chip market is entering a new cycle, with significant capital expenditure growth expected from major storage companies, projected to increase by 17% in 2026. The DRAM market is anticipated to see an 85% increase in value, surpassing 300 billion USD [2][16]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Disco's net profit for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 to be 127.8 billion JPY, 178.5 billion JPY, and 212.3 billion JPY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.1%, 39.7%, and 18.9%. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 1,178 JPY, 1,646 JPY, and 1,957 JPY [5][15]. Competitive Positioning - Disco's unique "razor and blades" business model, characterized by high-margin consumables, positions the company favorably against pure equipment manufacturers. The deep integration with clients during the R&D phase enhances pricing power and customer loyalty [3][17]. - The report highlights a divergence from market sentiment, suggesting that concerns over power semiconductors negatively impacting performance underestimate the demand for high-end equipment driven by AI chip performance upgrades [4][18]. Valuation Analysis - The report values Disco at 48x FY26E PE, considering its monopolistic position in HBM and advanced packaging sectors, as well as its superior gross margin structure compared to peers [5][19].