证券研究报告 Disco Corporation (6146 JP) AI 新周期核心"卖铲人"， 充分受益 HBM4 与 CoWoS 升级 | 华泰研究 | | | 首次覆盖 | 投资评级(首评): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 28 日│日本 | 半导体 | 目标价(日元): | 79,000.00 | DISCO 是全球半导体晶圆切割与减薄设备的龙头，长期保持 70%-80%的份 额。公司围绕"切、磨、抛"三大核心技术构建了完整的产品谱系，凭借"设 备+耗材+服务"的一体化商业模式，持续保持行业领先的盈利能力。2026 年，随着 AI 芯片迈入以 HBM4E 和 3nm 制程为代表的新世代，我们看好公 司收入利润进入新的加速增长周期。首次覆盖 DISCO，给予"买入"评级， 目标价 79,000 日元，对应 48 倍 FY26E PE。 观点#1：AI 芯片升级有望带动高端减薄和抛光设备需求快速增长 2026 年，全球 AI 芯片进入以英伟达 Rubin 系列为代表的新周期，驱动存储 从 HBM3E 向 HBM ...

机构指出，台积电capex超预期印证AI驱动下半导体设备需求韧性，带动全球半导体前道设备及后道封 测设备高景气。国内政策、资本、需求合力，国产设备订单有望加速。近期半导体设备行业催化不断， 大基金三期增资中芯南方、长鑫存储招股书发布，国内先进制程扩产与供应链本土化加速，国产前道半 导体设备迎替代与订单双重红利。此外，先进封测设备迎发展机遇。Chiplet、CoWoS等技术升级带动 固晶、测试等设备需求爆发，国内企业在关键环节突破，受益于封测产能扩张与技术升级红利。 消息面上，台积电预计2026年资本支出最高560亿美元，同比增长37%，其中70%-80%投向先进制程， 支撑AI需求。受此影响，美股阿斯麦、应用材料、拉姆研究盘中上涨6.9%、8.5%、6.5%，创历史新 高。 截至2026年1月16日 09:34，上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数(950125)强势上涨2.13%，成分股天岳 先进上涨10.35%，上海合晶上涨7.75%，兴福电子上涨4.94%，和林微纳，富创精密等个股跟涨。科创 半导体ETF鹏华(589020)上涨1.93%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报1.48元。 科创半导体ETF鹏华紧密跟踪上证 ...

Supply Chain - Nvidia Blackwell 晶圆在美国生产后仍需运往台湾进行 CoWoS 封装才能完成 [1] - 美国若能在两年后开始先进封装，则进度已超预期 [1]

長興材料首度取得台積電先進封裝材料訂單，獨供Apple 2026處理器MUF與LMC，預期成CoWoS新受益者並搶攻全球逾百億高毛利LMC市場https://t.co/jTGweXr5r2 https://t.co/UsoTqCQdMn ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Views - The company benefits from the expansion of PCB equipment and the acceleration of semiconductor equipment layout, maintaining a "Buy" rating. Despite a downward revision of the company's annual profit forecast due to limited capacity in the first phase of the factory, the company is expected to benefit from downstream PCB manufacturers' expansion and the upcoming production of the second-phase factory, leading to a positive mid-term performance release. Long-term, the company's semiconductor business is gradually constructing multiple growth drivers, with projected revenues of 1.5 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 300 million, 516 million, and 709 million yuan for the same years [5][6][9]. Company Overview - The company is a leading manufacturer of direct imaging lithography equipment, primarily serving the PCB and semiconductor sectors. Its products include direct imaging equipment for PCB and semiconductor applications, covering various processes from microns to nanometers. The company has a complete range of LDI equipment for PCB manufacturing, including IC substrates, HDI, and flexible printed circuits [6][15]. PCB Business - The PCB business is driven by high-end demand from AI infrastructure, with optimistic capital expenditure guidance from PCB manufacturers. The company has maintained a full order book since Q2 2024, but growth has been limited by capacity constraints. The gradual production of the second-phase factory is expected to release capacity and positively impact order growth [6][15]. Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor business is accelerating its industrialization process, with multiple layouts constructing a new growth curve. The company is focusing on advanced packaging technologies and has successfully completed product validation for several advanced packaging customers. The company is also making steady progress in the general semiconductor field, benefiting from the long-term trend of domestic substitution [7][36]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a projected revenue of 1.467 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.8%. The net profit is expected to reach 300 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 86.7%. The gross margin is projected to be 39.9% in 2025, with a net margin of 20.4% [8][34]. Market Position - The company has established a strong market position with a complete range of products covering various PCB types and processes. It has successfully penetrated the high-end PCB market and is positioned to benefit from the ongoing expansion in the semiconductor sector [6][15].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported strong Q2 2025 results with revenue of $30.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.8%, leading to an upward revision of the 2025 full-year revenue guidance to 30% growth [1][3][17] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 profit exceeded expectations with a gross margin of 58.6%, close to the upper limit of guidance [1][3] - Q3 2025 revenue guidance is set at $31.8 to $33 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 38% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% [3][13] - Q2 2025 capital expenditure was $9.63 billion, maintaining the full-year capex guidance of $38 to $42 billion [4][14] Revenue Composition - HPC revenue continues to rise, with 74% of revenue coming from 7nm and below process nodes [2][12] - By technology node, revenue breakdown is 24% from 3nm, 36% from 5nm, and 14% from 7nm [2][12] - By platform, HPC revenue increased by 14% quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 60% of total revenue [2][12] Guidance and Outlook - The company expects strong revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a gross margin guidance of 55.5% to 57.5% [3][13] - The company anticipates a potential decline in Q4 2025 revenue due to tariff impacts and other uncertainties [3][4] - AI demand is expected to see explosive growth within 6 months to 1 year, with a projected CAGR of nearly 45% from AI-accelerated chips [4][17] Global Expansion Plans - TSMC plans to invest $165 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in Arizona, including six advanced wafer fabs and two advanced packaging facilities [19][20] - The company is also expanding in Japan and Europe, with plans for specialized technology factories in Kumamoto and Dresden [20][21] Technological Advancements - N2 and A16 technologies are positioned to meet the growing demand for high-efficiency computing, with N2 expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2025 [21][22] - The company is focusing on enhancing its technology leadership and operational excellence to strengthen its competitive position [18][41]