2025 年 06 月 30 日 民生加银杨林：持续迭代维持竞争 力，多维因子+AI 技术增厚收益 ——基金经理研究系列报告之七十 证 券 证券分析师 奚佳诚 A0230523070004 xijc@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 奚佳诚 (8621)23297818× xijc@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 权 益 量 化 研 究 股 票 基 金 股票基金 目录 | | | | 术增厚收益 4 | | | --- | --- | | 1.1 | 基金经理概况 4 | | 1.2 投资框架：持续迭代进化的多维度 | AI 量化投资框架 4 | | 1.3 代表产品：民生加银智选成长 | 6 | | 2. 民生加银智选成长业绩表现分析 8 | | | 2.1 | 业绩表现：在同类主动权益产品中较为领先 8 | | 2.2 | 相对表现：月度胜率突 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, AI quantitative investment and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are key variables reshaping investment logic in the financial markets [1] - AI technology has rapidly advanced in quantitative investment, with firms like Luminus Fund utilizing deep neural networks to extract market features from vast datasets [3] - Luminus Fund's quantitative simulation shows that over 70% of excess returns come from stock selection, highlighting AI's potential in enhancing returns through individual stock analysis [3] Group 2 - The persistent inflation in 2025, with core PCE inflation nearing 3% and CPI inflation expected to rise to 5.4%, increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate hikes [4] - Wall Street's betting on the likelihood of rate hikes has surged from under 10% to 34.6%, with predictions of a potential increase of 75 basis points from major financial institutions [4] - The evolving investment logic indicates that while traditional AI models may struggle with market volatility due to reliance on historical data, models that can adapt quickly may seize more opportunities [5] Group 3 - Different asset classes are affected differently by AI quantitative investment and Federal Reserve rate hikes, with notable divergence in the tech stock market [6] - Stocks like Intel surged by 16% due to market sentiment and AI-driven funds, while growth stocks like Meta and Netflix face challenges from anticipated rate hikes [6] - In the bond market, rising rates lead to falling bond prices, but AI models can optimize bond allocations across various maturities and credit ratings [6] Group 4 - The gold market is also impacted, with short-term dollar strength from rate hikes suppressing gold price increases, while AI quantitative investment can analyze multidimensional data to capture short-term price fluctuations [6] - Investors in 2025 must reassess their strategies, recognizing both the advantages and limitations of AI quantitative investment while closely monitoring Federal Reserve rate hike developments [7] - Adjusting asset allocations, such as increasing cash reserves and focusing on stable, cash-rich companies less affected by rate hikes, is essential for navigating the complex market environment [7]

Core Insights - The rise of AI in the quantitative private equity sector is highlighted by the recent achievements of domestic firms like NianKong Technology, which has made significant strides in AI applications for finance [1][2] - As of May 23, 2023, there are 39 domestic quantitative private equity firms managing over 10 billion yuan, with 15 of them actively engaging in AI-related investments [1] Group 1: Company Developments - NianKong Technology has collaborated with Shanghai Jiao Tong University to submit a research paper on large model training methodologies to the international NIPS conference [1] - The establishment of Shanghai QuanPin Siwei Artificial Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. by NianKong Technology focuses on cutting-edge AI research [1] - NianKong Technology, founded in 2015, operates two quantitative private equity firms, NianJue Assets and NianKong Data Technology, and is recognized as an early adopter of AI in the financial sector [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - NianKong Technology's quantitative products have shown impressive performance, with an average return of 21.50% over the past year across four products [1] - Specific products managed by NianKong's founder, Wang Xiao, achieved returns of 33.96% and 23.24% over the past year [1] - Among the 15 billion-yuan AI quantitative private equity firms, 13 have reported products with more than three performance records, yielding an average return of 29.91% over the past year [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The integration of AI in quantitative investment has become increasingly significant, with a noticeable divergence in returns between subjective long and quantitative long strategies since 2020 [2] - The technological advancements in AI are paving the way for quantitative investment, making "AI + Quantitative" a crucial consideration for investors in the future [2] - DeepSeek, backed by Liang Wenfeng's firms, has set a benchmark in the industry, with its affiliated firm, Huanfang Quantitative, leading in average returns over the past six months and year [2]