Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in ADT-related businesses, indicating potential for valuation uplift. The company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [5][6] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the company's fundamentals, driven by a recovery in IPO activities and sustained inflows of southbound capital, with a forecasted increase in ADT for 2025-2027 [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other investment income grew by 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively. The core driver of revenue growth is the significant increase in trading and settlement fees directly linked to ADT [5][6] - The company has revised its ADT assumptions for 2025-2027 to HKD 2,580 billion, HKD 2,620 billion, and HKD 2,700 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 96%, 2%, and 3% [5][6] Market Outlook - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks is experiencing high demand, with 69 new listings in Q1-Q3 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [7] - The report notes that the trading volume is expected to remain active due to the influx of quality assets from Chinese concept stocks returning to Hong Kong and the wave of A-share listings in Hong Kong [7] Valuation and Dividend - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%. The report suggests that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive foreign capital back into the Hong Kong market, benefiting the exchange [8] - The current PE ratio is 31.2, which is at the 22nd percentile of the past ten years, indicating room for valuation improvement [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing long-term asset expansion driven by the AtoH wave and the return of Chinese concept stocks, alongside sustained net inflows from southbound capital, leading to increased trading volume and high growth in related revenues for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) [1] Group 1: Revenue and Trading Volume Growth - The active spot ADT has driven significant increases in trading and settlement revenues, with trading fees and system usage fees reaching HKD 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, including spot/derivatives/commodity revenues of HKD 4.7 billion/HKD 2.0 billion/HKD 1.1 billion, reflecting increases of 116%/15%/6% respectively [2] - The trading volume for Hong Kong stocks reached new highs, with southbound ADT at HKD 1,259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 229%, and northbound ADT at RMB 2,060 billion, a year-on-year increase of 67% [2] - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks remains robust, with 69 new listings in the first three quarters of 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [2] Group 2: Investment Returns and Dividend Expectations - The investment return rate for HKEX has decreased, with net investment income of HKD 3.89 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and project investment/margin investment returns at 4.7%/2.0%, down from 5.7%/2.2% in the first half of 2025 [3] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%, with the current U.S. Treasury yield at 4.10% [3] - The current PE-TTM is 31.2 times, positioned at the 22nd percentile over the past decade, with a dynamic PE of 30.2 times, indicating potential for valuation improvement [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Open Source Securities indicates that the combination of the AtoH wave and the return of Chinese concept stocks is driving long-term asset expansion in the Hong Kong stock market, leading to sustained net inflows of southbound funds and active trading volumes in the market. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to benefit from the anticipated foreign capital inflow due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, maintaining a high level of business performance and a "buy" rating for the stock [1]. Group 1 - The active spot ADT is driving significant increases in trading and settlement revenues, with trading fees and system usage fees reaching HKD 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, including spot/derivatives/commodity revenues of HKD 4.7 billion/HKD 2.0 billion/HKD 1.1 billion, which are year-on-year increases of 116%/15%/6% [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a high level of activity, with 69 new listings in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53%, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 188.3 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [2]. - The report highlights that the trading volume increase indirectly boosts custodial, trustee, and agent service fees, as well as market data fees, which have seen year-on-year increases of 25% and 8%, respectively [2]. Group 2 - The investment yield of HKEX has decreased, with a projected dividend yield of 3.0% for 2025, indicating potential for valuation improvement. The net investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 is HKD 3.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% [3]. - The expected dividend yield for 2025, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%, is 3.0%, while the current yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is 4.10%. The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive foreign capital back into the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the company is 31.2 times, which is at the 22nd percentile of the past ten years, with a dynamic PE of 30.2 times, indicating potential for valuation enhancement [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in ADT-related businesses, indicating potential for valuation uplift. The company's revenue and profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [5][6] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the company's fundamentals, driven by increased trading volumes and a favorable market environment, including the return of Chinese concept stocks and sustained net inflows from southbound capital [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other investment net income grew by 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively. The core driver of revenue growth is the significant increase in trading and settlement fees directly linked to ADT [5][6] - The report revises the ADT assumptions for Hong Kong stocks for 2025-2027 to HKD 2,580 billion, HKD 2,620 billion, and HKD 2,700 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 96%, 2%, and 3%, respectively. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to HKD 179 billion, HKD 192 billion, and HKD 202 billion for the same period, with corresponding EPS of HKD 14, HKD 15, and HKD 16 [5][6] Market Trends and Drivers - The report notes a robust primary market for Hong Kong stocks, with 69 new listings in Q1-Q3 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024. The number of new stock applications being processed reached 297, over three times the 84 applications at the end of 2024 [7] - The report emphasizes that the high trading volume indirectly boosts income from custody, trustee, and agent services, as well as market data fees, which grew by 25% and 8% year-on-year, respectively [7] Valuation and Dividend Outlook - The investment income for Q1-Q3 2025 was HKD 38.9 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase. The expected dividend yield for 2025 is projected at 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%. The report suggests that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive foreign capital back to the Hong Kong market, benefiting the exchange [8] - The current PE ratio is 31.2, positioned at the 22nd percentile over the past decade, with a dynamic PE of 30.2, indicating potential for valuation improvement [8]