Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold [9] - Options: short put @77,000 yuan/ton [9] Core Viewpoints - The domestic macro sentiment continues to recover, which is beneficial for the performance of risk assets. However, the US tariff policy may increase future uncertainties. The copper market is currently in a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, so the price is unlikely to show strong performance. Given the tight supply at the mine end, the possibility of a significant decline in copper prices is also limited. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate between 77,800 yuan/ton and 80,300 yuan/ton next week, and the operation is recommended to focus on buying hedges on dips [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,180 yuan/ton and closed at 79,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,130 yuan/ton and closed at 79,010 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market remains weak. The SMM1 electrolytic copper is priced at 78,950 - 79,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 - 140 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, and an average premium of 95 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan drop from the previous day. The Contango structure has narrowed to C40 - C20 yuan/ton. The market shows three characteristics: increased domestic and imported arrivals, significant regional differentiation, and tight supply of wet - process copper with a narrowing price difference between non - standard and standard products. It is expected that the downward space of the spot premium will narrow [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Washington Federal Court rejected the request of an investment company to make the FOMC meeting public. The US Treasury has significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $1.007 trillion. The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, alleviating market concerns about future uncertainties, but they are still discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is coming up, and Trump has called for a rate cut this week [3]. - **Mine End**: First Quantum Minerals is still in negotiation with the Panama government and pays $15 million per month to maintain the shut - down Cobre copper mine, expected to increase to $17 - 18 million by the end of the year. Teck Resources' board has approved a C$2.1 - 2.4 billion ($1.6 - 1.8 billion) expansion project for the Highland Valley copper mine, which will extend its operation to the mid - 2040s, with an average annual output of 137,000 tons of copper [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: A new wave of senior executive departures at Trafigura Group is pressuring its stock - repurchase commitment. The company has postponed about 30% of the stock repurchases originally planned for this year, and the market is worried about potential delays next year [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of the refined copper rod industry has dropped to 69.37%, a 4.85 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, lower than expected. The high copper price has suppressed terminal demand, leading to a "raw - material increase, finished - product accumulation" inventory pattern. The operating rate of the copper cable industry has dropped to 70.83%, a 2.07 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, with the largest year - on - year decline of 15.28 percentage points. SMM expects the operating rate to drop to 70.3% next week [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts have changed by 3,700 tons to 127,400 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts have changed by 1,699 tons to 17,832 tons. On July 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory is 120,300 tons, a change of 6,100 tons from the previous week. Last week, LME copper inventory continued to accumulate to 128,475 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 13.17% to 73,423 tons, international copper inventory remained stable at 11,616 tons, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate to 248,635 tons [7][8]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. The price is expected to fluctuate between 77,800 yuan/ton and 80,300 yuan/ton next week, and it is recommended to buy hedges on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [9]. - **Options**: short put @77,000 yuan/ton [9]. Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: The premium of SMM1 copper is 95 yuan, premium copper is 120 yuan, flat - water copper is 65 yuan, and wet - process copper is 5 yuan on July 29, 2025. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 127,400 tons, SHFE inventory is 73,423 tons, and COMEX inventory is 225,558 tons. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts are 17,832 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is 14.67%. - **Arbitrage**: The spread of CU10 - CU08 is - 40, CU09 - CU08 is 0, CU09/AL09 is 3.83, CU0/ZN09 is 3.49, the import profit is - 342 yuan, and the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) is 8.09 [29][30][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of "strong supply and stable demand" with a neutral to weak monthly spread structure, and its price trend may face pressure [4] - The benzene - ethylene market has an intensifying supply - demand mismatch, and the monthly spread may shift from the current Back structure to the Contango structure [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - On July 22, the main contract of benzene - ethylene closed down 0.15% at 7481 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4 (-64 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed up 0.95% at 6278 yuan/ton [2] - On July 22, the main contract of Brent crude oil closed at 66.0 dollars/barrel (-0.1 dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 69.2 dollars/barrel (-0.1 dollars/barrel). The spot price of East China pure benzene was 6005 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2] - The inventory of benzene - ethylene sample factories was 20.8 tons (-0.1 tons), a month - on - month destocking of 0.7%, and the inventory of Jiangsu ports was 13.9 tons (+2.7 tons), a month - on - month stockpiling of 24.2%. Benzene - ethylene showed overall stockpiling [2] - The supply of benzene - ethylene remained stable overall as the maintenance devices returned. Currently, the weekly output of benzene - ethylene was 35.9 tons (-0.4 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.3% (-0.9%) [2] - The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. The capacity utilization rate of EPS was 53.2% (+2.1%), ABS was 65.9% (+0.9%), and PS was 50.6% (-0.5%), with the overall start - up rate recovering [3] 2. Fundamentals - **Pure Benzene**: Supply pressure is increasing as some previously maintained devices resume operation and the expected production of Yulong Petrochemical in August will further increase supply. Imports are expected to remain relatively high. Demand is expected to remain strong in the short term but may weaken in the long term due to weak terminal consumption. Port inventory is expected to gradually increase, showing a "strong supply and stable demand" pattern [4] - **Benzene - Ethylene**: Supply will increase significantly as device maintenance ends and new projects are expected to be put into production in August. Demand is weak as it is the traditional off - season for the 3S industry. Inventory pressure will intensify, and the monthly spread may change from Back to Contango [5] 3. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: The price of benzene - ethylene main contract decreased by 0.15%, and the price of pure benzene main contract increased by 0.95%. The prices of upstream Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly [2][7] - **Output and Inventory**: The output of benzene - ethylene in China decreased slightly, and the output of pure benzene increased slightly. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu increased, and the factory inventory decreased slightly. The port inventory of pure benzene decreased [8] - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of downstream products of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene varied. Some increased, and some decreased [9] 4. Industry News - Trump and Xi Jinping are reported to meet before or during the APEC Summit in South Korea [10] - The establishment conference of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was held, and Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing attended and unveiled the company [10] - Trump plans to impose 15% or 20% general tariffs on most trading partners [10] 5. Industry Chain Data Charts - The content mainly includes charts of prices, costs, inventories, and start - up rates of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene and their downstream products [11][16][17]