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Core Viewpoint - Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko warns that President Trump has a different agenda regarding cryptocurrency, focusing on preserving dollar dominance, and predicts Bitcoin will bottom around $58,000-$63,000 in September [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Agenda and Crypto - Yusko asserts that Trump is not a friend to the crypto community, indicating that his agenda is contrary to the interests of cryptocurrency [2]. - He claims that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others are involved in clandestine efforts with Cantor Fitzgerald and Tether to maintain dollar hegemony and counter China's ambitions for the yuan to become the world reserve currency [2]. Group 2: Bitcoin Market Analysis - Yusko believes the four-year Bitcoin cycle remains intact, with the next trough expected around September 30-October 1, 2023 [3][4]. - Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin could fall to $58,000-$63,000, with previous cycles showing declines of 84% and 75% from peaks [4]. - Bitcoin's recent peak was $126,000, which is only 35% above its fair value of around $90,000, indicating less potential upside and downside compared to previous cycles [4]. Group 3: Fair Value and Market Dynamics - Yusko's Metcalfe's Law model estimates Bitcoin's current fair value at $81,000, down from $90,000 due to hash rate shutdowns and declining transaction volumes [5]. - Yusko discusses how commodity futures can suppress Bitcoin prices, explaining that institutions may buy Bitcoin ETFs while shorting futures to maintain market neutrality [6].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main contract for tin experienced a significant drop of 7%, closing at 351,260 yuan per ton [1] - The main contract for international copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by over 3%, settling at 87,680 yuan per ton [1]

Commodity Performance Summary - Precious metals experienced significant gains in January 2026, with gold rising by 9.31%, silver by 11.23%, platinum by 4.28%, and palladium by 3.13% before a sharp correction at the end of the month [1][2][5] - Energy commodities also saw impressive increases, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both rising nearly 14%, while natural gas futures surged by 39.11% due to increased heating demand from cold weather [1][6][8] - Cocoa futures were the only major commodity to experience a double-digit percentage loss, plummeting over 30% [1][2] Precious Metals Insights - Silver futures reached a record high of $121.785 per ounce on January 29 before falling to $78.531 on January 30, marking an 11.23% gain for the month [4] - Gold futures peaked at $5,626.80 on January 29, but also faced a significant drop by the end of the month [4][5] - Platinum and palladium futures saw record highs of $2,925.00 and $1,703.10 respectively before settling lower [5] Energy Sector Developments - Natural gas futures led the energy sector with a 39.11% gain in January, driven by increased heating demand [7] - WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose by approximately 14%, with gasoline and heating oil futures gaining 11.52% and 20.42% respectively [8] - The performance of gasoline futures was affected by seasonality, leading to lower gasoline crack spreads, while heating oil futures outperformed crude oil [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic reports of customs control on soybean imports are bullish for near-term contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics and the auction of imported soybeans after New Year's Day. US soybean exports are weak, and there is currently no obvious speculative driver in South American weather. Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure in the future, and the M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. Overall, the market is expected to be stronger in the near term and weaker in the long term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On December 30th, the Dalian basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) was 382, down 24; the Tianjin basis was 362, down 4; the Rizhao basis was 322, down 24. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 342, down 14 [4] - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 94, up 6 [4] - The RM1 - 5 spread was 69, down 9; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 536, down 10; the spot spread (Guangdong) was 300, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread on the main contract was 375, down 12 [5] International and Domestic Inventory Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9605, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 117.00 cents per bushel, up 2. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market was 152 yuan per ton [5] - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a historically high level for the same period. The reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply remains high. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced more rapidly from December to January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory held by feed enterprises increased [7][8] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: According to CONAB data, the predicted output of Brazil's new soybean crop in the 25/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of December 5th, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 90.3%, compared to 88% last week, 94.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 89.8%. According to BAGE, as of December 3rd, the soybean planting progress in Argentina was 4.7%, compared to 36% last week and 50% in the same period last year. There are no obvious short - term weather problems in the forecast. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to experience seasonal inventory reduction. There are rumors that customs have delayed the release of soybeans for 25 days, increasing concerns about domestic soybean supply in the first quarter of next year. Domestic auctions of imported soybeans have been held, with high transaction premiums. Attention should be paid to subsequent auction results [7] - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been normal, and the提货 performance has been good [7][8]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - Short - term basis repair is completed, and further upward movement is difficult. With multiple factors affecting the market, the sugar price is under pressure to fall [3] Price and Spread Data - Sugar futures: SR01 closed at 5294 with a daily decline of 1.3% and a weekly increase of 2.26%; SR03 closed at 5287 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly increase of 3.46%; etc [4] - Sugar basis: On December 25, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 24 with a daily increase of 28 and a weekly decrease of 102; etc [9] - Import price: On December 26, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4157 with a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 75; the out - of - quota price was 5270 with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 98; etc [12] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short term, there is still hedging pressure on cotton prices to be digested. In the long term, if the supply expectation remains unchanged, the cotton supply - demand in the new year may be tight, and cotton prices have room to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders before the holiday [14] Price and Spread Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures: Cotton01 closed at 14565 with an increase of 270 (1.89%); Cotton05 closed at 14535 with an increase of 280 (1.96%); etc [15] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 782 with a daily decrease of 242; the spread of cotton01 - 05 was 30 with a daily decrease of 10; etc [15] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The overall trading of late Fuji inventory is slow, and transactions are mostly on - demand. Merchants' restocking is temporarily over [18] Price and Spread Data - Apple futures: AP01 closed at 9694 with a daily increase of 0.03% and a weekly increase of 1.14%; AP03 closed at 9360 with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 0.8%; etc [19] - Apple spreads: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 483 with a daily increase of 2.11% and a weekly increase of 16.39%; etc [19] Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - In the short term, red date prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, the overall supply - demand of red dates in the new year in China is loose, and prices will still be under pressure [26] Price and Spread Data - Red date futures spreads: The spread of red date futures (01 - 05) shows certain trends in different years; etc [27]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn's short - to medium - term supply - demand structure is turning loose. The short - term supply surge from the new season's harvest is suppressing prices, but with the continued absence of import pressure, the price decline may be limited [1]. - Corn demand remains resilient, and substitution pressure is limited [1]. - CBOT corn is oscillating at a low level to digest the pressure of a bumper harvest. With a sharp reduction in China's imported grains, the transmission of international grain prices to the domestic market is expected to decline [1]. - The domestic corn futures market is digesting the pressure of the new season's harvest in the short term and is operating with a weak oscillation [1]. - Corn starch futures are following the decline of corn. Later, with the expectation of cost reduction and the arrival of the consumption peak season, prices are likely to operate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data of Corn and Starch Futures - Corn futures prices for different contracts (11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09) increased on September 18, 2025, compared to September 17, 2025, with the increase ranging from 0.09% to 0.74% [1]. - Corn starch futures prices for different contracts (11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09) also increased on September 18, 2025, compared to September 17, 2025, with the increase ranging from 0.27% to 0.73% [1]. - The wheat average price increased by 0.08% from September 17 to September 18, 2025 [1]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Market 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Pig production capacity remains at a high level, and demand shows resilience [2]. - The import volume of corn and rice has decreased significantly, reducing substitution pressure [2]. - The pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, and the new - season quotes are mainly high - opened [2]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary supply surplus is pressuring prices [2]. - There are frequent messages about pig production capacity regulation, and there are concerns about medium - term corn demand [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices and Basis - For corn, the spot prices in Jinzhou Port, Shekou Port, and Harbin remained unchanged on the reporting date. The Jinzhou Port main - contract basis decreased by 16 [11]. - For corn starch, the spot prices in Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang remained unchanged on the reporting date. The Shandong main - contract basis decreased by 18 [11]. 3.4 International Market Data - CBOT corn main - contract price was 424.5, down 0.59% [22]. - COBT soybean main - contract price was 1038.75, down 0.5% [22]. - CBOT wheat main - contract price was 525, down 0.66% [22]. - The US Gulf完税 price was 2146.07, down 0.54%, with an import profit of 293.93 [22]. - The US West完税 price was 1994.56, down 0.57%, with an import profit of 445.44 [22].