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玉米、淀粉产业链日报-20250919
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 03:07
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn's short - to medium - term supply - demand structure is turning loose. The short - term supply surge from the new season's harvest is suppressing prices, but with the continued absence of import pressure, the price decline may be limited [1]. - Corn demand remains resilient, and substitution pressure is limited [1]. - CBOT corn is oscillating at a low level to digest the pressure of a bumper harvest. With a sharp reduction in China's imported grains, the transmission of international grain prices to the domestic market is expected to decline [1]. - The domestic corn futures market is digesting the pressure of the new season's harvest in the short term and is operating with a weak oscillation [1]. - Corn starch futures are following the decline of corn. Later, with the expectation of cost reduction and the arrival of the consumption peak season, prices are likely to operate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data of Corn and Starch Futures - Corn futures prices for different contracts (11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09) increased on September 18, 2025, compared to September 17, 2025, with the increase ranging from 0.09% to 0.74% [1]. - Corn starch futures prices for different contracts (11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09) also increased on September 18, 2025, compared to September 17, 2025, with the increase ranging from 0.27% to 0.73% [1]. - The wheat average price increased by 0.08% from September 17 to September 18, 2025 [1]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Market 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Pig production capacity remains at a high level, and demand shows resilience [2]. - The import volume of corn and rice has decreased significantly, reducing substitution pressure [2]. - The pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, and the new - season quotes are mainly high - opened [2]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary supply surplus is pressuring prices [2]. - There are frequent messages about pig production capacity regulation, and there are concerns about medium - term corn demand [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices and Basis - For corn, the spot prices in Jinzhou Port, Shekou Port, and Harbin remained unchanged on the reporting date. The Jinzhou Port main - contract basis decreased by 16 [11]. - For corn starch, the spot prices in Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang remained unchanged on the reporting date. The Shandong main - contract basis decreased by 18 [11]. 3.4 International Market Data - CBOT corn main - contract price was 424.5, down 0.59% [22]. - COBT soybean main - contract price was 1038.75, down 0.5% [22]. - CBOT wheat main - contract price was 525, down 0.66% [22]. - The US Gulf完税 price was 2146.07, down 0.54%, with an import profit of 293.93 [22]. - The US West完税 price was 1994.56, down 0.57%, with an import profit of 445.44 [22].