来源：李迅雷金融与投资 引言 2025年刚刚过去，我们在年末提出"春季躁动"如期而至。开年以来，商业航天指数持续走强，累计涨幅超过30%。市场交易的并非具体的供应链订单或业 绩兑现，或受一个更为宏大的叙事推动：SpaceX即将上市，估值突破千亿美元；中美科技竞争不会只在美国发生，中国必然跟上甚至更强。同时，A股本 次的"春季躁动"行情十分火热。 这是2025年风险偏好推动的股市走强的叙事又一次深刻演绎：A股市场表现稳健，沪深300、科创50等核心指数涨幅可观；但居民收入预期下修并未减 弱。资本市场的定价逻辑似乎已与传统宏观指标脱钩。 回到市场，这轮上涨究竟是传统意义上"金银铜铝→原油→钢铁→CPI复苏"的周期扩散，还是围绕大国竞争、算力电力、军备资源的新主线？股市强、地 产弱、消费弱能否长期并存？本文尝试从DCF定价、国运信心、技术创新模式等维度给出答案。 定价角度： 如何理解股市与经济的"虚实"背离 为什么2024-2025年A股上市公司整体盈利增速放缓，企业盈利的内生增长动能偏弱，但市场估值中枢却在持续抬升？ 回到资产定价的基本原理。企业价值由三个核心要素决定：当期现金流（CF1， CF2...CFn）、 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：李迅雷金融与投资 引言 2025年刚刚过去，我们在年末提出"春季躁动"如期而至。开年以来，商业航天指数持续走强，累计涨幅 超过30%。市场交易的并非具体的供应链订单或业绩兑现，或受一个更为宏大的叙事推动：SpaceX即将 上市，估值突破千亿美元；中美科技竞争不会只在美国发生，中国必然跟上甚至更强。同时，A股本次 的"春季躁动"行情十分火热。 这是2025年风险偏好推动的股市走强的叙事又一次深刻演绎：A股市场表现稳健，沪深300、科创50等 核心指数涨幅可观；但居民收入预期下修并未减弱。资本市场的定价逻辑似乎已与传统宏观指标脱钩。 回到市场，这轮上涨究竟是传统意义上"金银铜铝→原油→钢铁→CPI复苏"的周期扩散，还是围绕大国 竞争、算力电力、军备资源的新主线？股市强、地产弱、消费弱能否长期并存？本文尝试从DCF定价、 国运信心、技术创新模式等维度给出答案。 定价角度： 可以发现：市场定价的重心不是当期盈利（分子端），而是永续增长（g*）与风险溢价（ERP）的重新 定价。当投资者对中国在关键领域的长期竞争力更有信心时，g*预期上升；当 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative of the market has shifted from "growth" to "competitiveness," driven by external factors such as the U.S.-China tech competition and the need for self-sufficiency in key industries [17][33] - The A-share market has shown resilience despite economic pressures, with the performance of leading companies in global competition being a key driver of market valuation rather than domestic consumption or income growth [18][27] - The current investment logic emphasizes sectors like AI, power, and critical resources, which are experiencing rapid capital expenditure growth, while traditional consumer sectors face challenges [26][28] Group 2 - The divergence between corporate competitiveness and household income growth reflects a broader transformation in the economic structure, where companies are optimizing costs to enhance global competitiveness [28][31] - Historical examples illustrate that market performance can diverge from economic fundamentals, as seen in the U.S. during WWII and China's market in the early 2000s, where investor sentiment and risk premiums played significant roles [9][14][16] - The current market environment suggests that the valuation of leading companies is increasingly decoupled from traditional economic indicators, focusing instead on their long-term competitive advantages [5][8][18] Group 3 - The rise in valuations for sectors like commercial aerospace, AI, and semiconductors reflects a belief in China's ability to compete and innovate in critical areas, despite short-term economic challenges [18][19] - The shift in demand dynamics, particularly in the context of AI and energy infrastructure, is driving a new cycle of investment that differs from traditional recovery patterns [19][24] - The market's focus on a few core assets, which contribute significantly to overall market capitalization, indicates a concentration of value creation in leading firms rather than a broad-based economic recovery [5][8][18] Group 4 - The ongoing adjustments in corporate cost structures and labor compensation models are indicative of a strategic response to global competition, which may lead to increased income volatility for workers [28][31] - The institutional differences between China's centralized policy approach and the more fragmented Western model highlight the advantages of sustained support for key industries in fostering long-term competitiveness [33][34] - The current macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a complex interplay of geopolitical uncertainty, technological competition, and evolving consumer behaviors, necessitating a nuanced investment strategy [35][36]