截至2026年1月15日，香港交易所股價收報438.6元，當日上升0.87%，盤中一度逼近440元關口。自去年12月中旬以來，港交所股價已累積約10%的升幅，整 體上升趨勢保持良好。而今日（16日）的11點，港交所報438.8元，升0.05%。 技術分析：趨勢向上但短線超買，關鍵阻力位成焦點 從日線圖表分析，港交所的技術格局呈現「中期向好，短線遇阻」的特點。股價目前已成功站穩於所有主要移動平均線之上，10天線（約428.2元）、30天 線（約412.58元）及60天線（約418.25元）形成多頭排列，為後市提供了堅實的下方支撐基礎。然而，多個短線震盪指標已發出警示信號。相對強弱指數 （RSI）達到68，顯示市場已進入超買區域；同時，威廉指標和隨機震盪指標也確認了「超買狀態」，預示著短期內追漲動能可能暫時放緩，股價存在技術 性整固的需求。技術指標總結給出的9個「中立」信號，也印證了當前市場正處於方向選擇的關鍵節點。 這一系列技術信號，清晰地勾勒出當前市場的核心博弈區間。上方，首個關鍵阻力位位於443元附近。這不僅是近期盤整區間的上沿，也接近保力加通道頂 部。若能帶量有效突破此位置，下一目標將指向461元的更高阻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article explains why call options do not rise in price when the futures prices of similar products increase, highlighting significant differences in price-driving factors between futures and options [1]. Group 1: Option Status - Call options may be in an out-of-the-money state, meaning the strike price is significantly higher than the current futures price, resulting in zero intrinsic value [4]. - The Delta value of out-of-the-money options is low, indicating weak sensitivity to price changes in the underlying asset, which limits the price increase of options even when futures rise [4]. Group 2: Time Value Decay - Time value diminishes as the expiration date approaches, leading to a non-linear decay that can offset any gains from rising futures prices [7]. - Deep out-of-the-money options have minimal time value, making them vulnerable to complete erosion of any intrinsic value increase due to time decay [7][8]. Group 3: Implied Volatility - Implied volatility is a key parameter in option pricing; a decrease in implied volatility can lead to a decline in call option prices despite an increase in futures prices [8]. - The relationship between volatility and option prices is characterized by a "see-saw effect," where a drop in implied volatility negatively impacts option prices, counteracting gains from Delta [8]. Group 4: Market Liquidity and Transaction Costs - Poor liquidity in deep out-of-the-money options can widen bid-ask spreads, causing actual transaction prices to appear unchanged despite theoretical price increases [9]. - Large orders from institutional investors can push up market prices, but retail investors may struggle to execute trades at reasonable prices due to insufficient market depth [10]. Group 5: Other Factors - Changes in interest rates have a minimal impact on commodity options compared to stock options, with slight increases in call option prices possible due to higher holding costs [11]. - Differences in exercise styles (American vs. European options) affect time value decay, with European options experiencing more significant losses in time value when futures prices rise [12].

Group A - The article discusses the flexibility of options trading and its widespread use in hedging, emphasizing the need for specific strategies based on individual circumstances [1] - Various options strategies are composed of four basic positions: buying calls, buying puts, selling calls, and selling puts, which can be combined according to actual needs [1][2] - The characteristics and functions of the buyer and seller positions are outlined, with buyers aiming for profit potential and sellers focusing on income from premiums [2][3] Group B - The article identifies key issues in hedging, including contract month selection, quantity and ratio selection, and strike price selection [5] - When selecting contract months, factors such as the timing of cash flow and the Delta value of options must be considered [6][8] - The article provides scenarios for choosing contract months based on the timing of cash flow relative to option expiration dates [9][10][11] Group C - The selection of hedging quantity is closely related to contract months, with a 1:1 ratio being appropriate when the option expiration aligns with cash flow [16] - The Delta value of options approaches ±1 as expiration nears, necessitating adjustments in hedging quantity based on the timing of cash flow [17] - Strike price selection is crucial, with buyers typically choosing at-the-money or slightly in-the-money options, while sellers opt for out-of-the-money options [18][20] Group D - Dynamic adjustment of positions is necessary after entering hedging strategies, particularly for seller positions, which may require adjustments based on market movements [21] - The article illustrates a case study of a manufacturer hedging against falling prices by selling call options and discusses various adjustment strategies based on market conditions [22][24][25][26][27] - Overall, the article aims to provide insights into the classification of primary and secondary hedging positions and the selection of contract months, quantities, and strike prices in options hedging [27]