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Goldman Sachs' Luke Barrs: We expect the dollar to depreciate in the medium-term
Youtube· 2025-10-07 10:51
Joining us now on US and global markets, including the volatility we've seen in places like France and Japan, Luke Bars, chief business and client officer for fundamental equities at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. And Luke, uh, it's great to have you here this morning. I just wonder about the general setup here.One of the things we've been able to say for much of this year is that this equity rally has been a global affair. There's been a lot of participation elsewhere, perhaps driven by different dynamics ...
Japan Puts Long Bonds Under Pressure: 3-Minutes MLIV
Bloomberg Television· 2025-10-06 07:48
Let's talk a little bit about what he's saying in Japan. Mark, your take on it. Is it an overreaction.Equities up very, very sharply decent moving the yen decent move in JGBs. I think it's the correct reaction. I think it's an appropriate reaction, not necessarily an overreaction, but this isn't the start of sustainable trends.So we've got a likely new prime minister who is much more in favour of kind of fiscal expansion and certainly to get that kind of coalition, that's what she's going to probably have t ...
美元主导与美元贬值-行进在不同轨道-Global Markets Analyst_ Dollar Dominance and Dollar Depreciation — Moving on Different Tracks (Trivedi_Jenkins)
2025-09-26 02:29
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Dollar's dominance and depreciation** within the context of the international financial system, analyzing its current status and future outlook. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Dollar's Future**: The Dollar is unlikely to be replaced soon, but it is expected to depreciate due to the US economy's less exceptional performance, making it harder to attract unhedged capital flows [3][4][5] 2. **De-dollarization Evidence**: There is limited evidence of de-dollarization despite a decline in the Dollar's share of central bank reserves by approximately 8 percentage points since 2015. The Dollar remains dominant in global debt issuance, cross-border transactions, and spot FX trading volumes [10][12][16] 3. **Structural Factors**: The US's share of global debt, GDP, and trade are more significant for the Dollar's internationalization than short-term financial swings. The gradual erosion of Dollar dominance is anticipated, but displacement appears distant [3][32][41] 4. **TINA Factor**: Attempts to diversify away from Dollar dominance are hindered by the unmatched scale, liquidity, and network effects of the Dollar. Alternatives like the Euro and Renminbi face significant challenges [4][58][61] 5. **Forward-Looking Dollar View**: The Dollar is expected to depreciate further due to less exceptional economic performance and a high valuation that needs correction. The Euro and Yuan are projected to strengthen due to favorable economic conditions in Europe and China [65][69][70] Additional Important Considerations 1. **Impact of US Policies**: The US's evolving trade and security policies may impact its share of global trade, which could have significant implications for Dollar internationalization. A 5 percentage point reduction in the US's share of global trade could lead to a ~2.5 percentage point decrease in the Dollar's global usage [42][45] 2. **Historical Context**: Historical patterns indicate that shifts in currency dominance can be slow and complex, often influenced by geopolitical factors and institutional considerations. The UK’s experience with Sterling illustrates this inertia [45][53] 3. **Stablecoins and Dollar Dominance**: The rise of Dollar-pegged stablecoins reinforces the Dollar's global standing, as the majority of circulating stablecoins are Dollar-based [54][60] 4. **Gradual Changes**: The report emphasizes that any erosion of Dollar dominance is likely to be a multi-decade process, while further Dollar depreciation is expected in the near term [71][74] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Dollar's current status and future outlook in the global financial system.
Ken Griffin: If I were the president, I would let the Fed do their job
Youtube· 2025-09-25 18:37
So, do you worry that the Fed will get it wrong. I mean, he he's got some appointments to fill and he and he wants lower interest rates. The president he wants lower interest rates and and I got to tell you, if I were the president, I would let the Fed do their job and I would let the Fed have as much perceived and real independence as possible because the Fed often has to make choices that are pretty painful to make. And if the president's perceived as being in control of the Fed, then what happens when th ...
The Economy Looks Shaky. So, Why Is The Stock Market Surging?
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-10 19:28
Economic Indicators vs. Stock Market Performance - There is a significant disconnect between economic indicators and stock market performance, with employment and inflation showing negative trends while financial markets, particularly the S&P 500, are reaching record highs [1][2][8] - The S&P 500 has increased by over 11% this year, contrasting with a downward revision of job growth estimates by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was the largest in the agency's history [2][3] Factors Influencing Stock Market Resilience - Poor job growth may lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which typically benefits stock prices by reducing borrowing costs [5] - The adoption of AI technology by companies could be contributing to job stagnation, which may positively impact shareholders of AI-related firms [6] - A weak U.S. dollar, which has depreciated by approximately 10% since January, is benefiting exporters and improving corporate earnings for S&P 500 companies [9][10] Impact of Tariffs and Economic Sentiment - Companies are finding ways to adapt to President Trump's tariffs, which has contributed to the stock market's performance despite negative economic signals [8] - Economists suggest that the weak dollar reflects a loss of confidence in the U.S. economy, yet it has simultaneously aided companies with significant international sales exposure [9][11]
IMTM: International Equities With Momentum
Seeking Alpha· 2025-09-06 03:21
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in assets denominated in currencies other than the dollar when the dollar is weak, as these assets tend to increase in value with dollar depreciation [1] - Binary Tree Analytics (BTA) is highlighted as a firm with a background in investment banking and derivatives trading, focusing on providing transparency and analytics in capital markets instruments and trades [1] - BTA specializes in Closed-End Funds (CEFs), Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and Special Situations, aiming to deliver high annualized returns with low volatility [1]
高盛:亚洲股票观点_股市将如何应对关税征收与利率宽松
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a moderately positive outlook for Asian equity markets, forecasting a 9% USD price return over the next 12 months with a revised MXAPJ index price target of 700, which is 3% above the previous target of 680 [3][47][54]. Core Insights - The macro risk environment has improved, with reduced US economic policy uncertainty and expectations of Fed rate cuts, which are likely to support regional equities [4][32]. - The tariff environment remains fluid, with potential impacts on GDP growth and earnings forecasts, but the overall growth impact may not be as negative as previously feared [14][19]. - Earnings growth is expected to be the dominant driver of returns, with forecasts of 9% and 10% EPS growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively [48][52]. Summary by Sections Current Conditions - The macro risk environment has improved due to moderated US economic policy uncertainty, eased financial conditions, and firm activity data, leading to a 25% rebound in the MXAPJ index [4][5][6]. Tariffs - The tariff situation is expected to influence equity performance, with potential higher rates but greater certainty. The final tariff rates may differ from current expectations, impacting GDP growth and earnings forecasts [14][15][19]. Rates - The Fed is expected to begin cutting rates in September, with a total of five cuts anticipated by mid-2026, which should support regional equities through a weaker dollar [32][33][36]. Returns - The report anticipates a wide dispersion of expected returns across markets, with a forecasted 9% USD price return over 12 months based on earnings growth and a revised index target [47][49][54]. Allocations - The report emphasizes North Asia, maintaining overweights in China, Japan, and Korea, while downgrading Malaysia to underweight. Sector upgrades include capital goods and tech hardware, while autos and consumer staples are downgraded [59][60][69][75].
Dollar Depreciation Has Years to Run: 3-Minute MLIV
Bloomberg Television· 2025-07-02 08:16
Market Impact of Potential US Budget Bill - The market's current interpretation of the budget bill focuses on its potential as a massive net injection of money into the economy, which is expected to boost GDP growth and be positive for stocks [2] - Concerns about the debt side are not currently driving market dynamics, but the risk of the bill failing or facing extended delays is potentially underestimated by the market [3][4] - The market is trading positively, with small caps rallying, indicating a broadening of the bullish sentiment [4][5] Dollar's Depreciation Trend and Potential Bounce - The long-term trend for the dollar is depreciation, expected to continue for a couple of years, with potential targets of 130 and possibly higher [7] - A short-term bounce in the dollar is possible due to a public position squeeze, as short-term players have shifted from long to slightly short positions [8] - A risk-off event could act as a catalyst for a positioning squeeze, potentially triggered by the tax bill failing or upcoming trade deadlines [10][11] - A risk-off catalyst could cause deleveraging and squeeze out short positions, leading to a short-term bounce of a couple of percent [12]
This Monster Dividend Growth Stock Is Up 50% So Far This Year
The Motley Fool· 2025-06-01 10:35
Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris International has achieved a 50% total return in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, which remains flat this year [1]. Group 1: Business Transformation - The company has successfully pivoted from traditional cigarettes to alternative nicotine products, recognizing the global decline in cigarette usage [4]. - Philip Morris holds a dominant position in the heat-not-burn category with its Iqos brand, capturing a 77% volume share in its operating markets [4]. - In the nicotine pouch segment, the company leads with its Zyn brand, exhibiting similar market share characteristics [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the last quarter, 42% of the company's revenue and 44% of gross profit were derived from smoke-free products, indicating a significant shift in its revenue composition [5]. - Overall revenue has increased to $38 billion over the last 12 months, reflecting the successful transition to alternative nicotine products [5]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which has fallen from around 110 to under 100, is expected to enhance revenue in U.S. dollar terms for Philip Morris, as it primarily operates outside the U.S. [6]. - The company is positioned to benefit from this currency trend, which has contributed to the stock price increase at the start of 2025 [6]. Group 4: Traditional Tobacco Outlook - Despite the decline in cigarette usage globally, traditional tobacco products are still expected to generate cash flow for the company, particularly outside of China and the U.S. [9]. - In the last quarter, gross profit from combustibles grew by 5.3% year over year, demonstrating the continued viability of traditional tobacco in international markets [9][10]. Group 5: Valuation and Future Prospects - The stock's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has increased to 24 from 14 a year ago, and the dividend yield has decreased to 3% from nearly 6% [13]. - This rising valuation suggests that the extraordinary 50% returns may not be sustainable, but the stock remains a viable investment due to its solid dividend yield and growth potential [14]. - The combination of Iqos and Zyn growth, along with pricing power in traditional cigarettes, positions the company for potential double-digit revenue and earnings growth in the coming years [14][15].