Core Insights - Altcoins such as Hyperliquid, River, and Pump.fun have experienced significant price increases, with Hyperliquid leading at a 65% gain over the past week [1]. Altcoin Performance - Hyperliquid surged 65%, followed by Pump.fun at 33.6%, Canton at 23.3%, and River at 21.8% [1] - Altcoin dominance increased from approximately 6.7% to 7.06% during the past week [2] Bitcoin Market Context - Bitcoin is consolidating between $95,000 and $81,000, currently trading at $89,373, reflecting a 1.9% increase on the day [2] - Bitcoin's dominance has formed a local top around 59.94 to 59.50 [2] Market Sentiment - Users on the prediction market Myriad have shifted to a bullish outlook for Pump.fun, assigning a 56% chance for its price to reach $0.005 [3] - A bullish sentiment also emerged for Hyperliquid after a week of bearish trends [3] Speculative Capital Movement - Myriad users expect Hyperliquid's airdrop to occur before Pump.fun's, with a 54% chance assigned to this outcome [4] - The trend indicates a shift in risk appetite amidst macroeconomic uncertainty [4] Macro Economic Factors - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased from nearly 110 in January 2025 to 95.70 this week, suggesting looser financial conditions [5] - Analysts note that the dollar's relative oversupply is leading to depreciation and sector rotations, emphasizing the need for diversified portfolios [6] Individual Altcoin Drivers - River benefits from capital inflows and high short-term trading volumes [7] - Hyperliquid is gaining from strong silver trading activity, enhancing project revenues [7] - Pump.fun's role as a meme coin infrastructure indicates renewed interest in the meme sector, promoting utility and community-driven momentum [7]

The central bank was closely monitoring the appreciation of the euro, which could potentially reduce inflation across the bloc, the Governor of the Bank of France said. ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today fell to a new 4-month low and is down -0.61%. The dollar is being undercut by speculation that the US might coordinate FX intervention with Japan to boost the yen, which would dovetail with Mr. Trump's apparent view that a weak dollar is good for the US as a stimulus to US exports.  US authorities reportedly contacted market participants last Friday to check dollar/yen prices, a possible precursor to intervention. More News from Barchart The dollar is also being undercut ...

10 January 2026 | 3:59AM GMT Economics Research 2026 GLOBAL FX OUTLOOK Different Dollar Downside n Our central view remains that less US outperformance than before should lead to a less-strong Dollar over time. We first formulated that view in April 2025 as we judged that the net effect of policy changes in the US and abroad was likely to narrow the spread between US performance and the rest of the world and diminish demand for US assets. While the Dollar moved substantially lower over subsequent months, it ...

Mark the dollar. I think we will resume the structural depreciation trend next year. I think there are potentially a number of factors, right, in that the most important is because of the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed.We know that the setting for monetary policy, wherever it's at, will be easier than Orthodox or Orthodox economics would recommend. And that is at a point when the rest of the world is coming, generally coming to the end of their easing cycles. I still think that the trade dynamic ...

Market Overview - The current equity rally is characterized as a global affair with significant participation from various markets, driven by different dynamics [2][3] - Earnings growth is crucial for sustaining market momentum, with companies reporting favorable earnings despite external uncertainties [3][12] Capital Expenditure Trends - A notable increase in capital expenditure (capex) is observed, with a projected 50% rise this year, amounting to $350 billion, and expectations of close to a trillion dollars over the next three years [7] - The hyperscale capex trend, particularly in AI, is expected to benefit companies involved in this sector [4][7] Fiscal Policy Changes - There is a shift towards fiscal expansion in regions like Germany, with increased spending in sectors such as defense and infrastructure, which is expected to positively impact corporate fundamentals [8][9] - The unification and reform efforts in Europe are progressing, albeit slower than anticipated [8] Currency and Global Growth - Global growth is showing positive trends across key markets, with implications for currency dynamics, including a weakening yen and a strengthening dollar [6][10] - Central banks are diversifying reserve positions away from the dollar, although it remains the primary reserve currency [10][11] Corporate Earnings and Valuations - Despite potential corrections in the market, corporate earnings are expected to remain strong, with many companies demonstrating pricing power to pass costs onto consumers [12][15] - Valuations, particularly for larger cap companies, are viewed as relatively healthy, with ongoing earnings growth providing comfort despite high trading multiples [14][15]

Let's talk a little bit about what he's saying in Japan. Mark, your take on it. Is it an overreaction.Equities up very, very sharply decent moving the yen decent move in JGBs. I think it's the correct reaction. I think it's an appropriate reaction, not necessarily an overreaction, but this isn't the start of sustainable trends.So we've got a likely new prime minister who is much more in favour of kind of fiscal expansion and certainly to get that kind of coalition, that's what she's going to probably have t ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Dollar's dominance and depreciation** within the context of the international financial system, analyzing its current status and future outlook. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Dollar's Future**: The Dollar is unlikely to be replaced soon, but it is expected to depreciate due to the US economy's less exceptional performance, making it harder to attract unhedged capital flows [3][4][5] 2. **De-dollarization Evidence**: There is limited evidence of de-dollarization despite a decline in the Dollar's share of central bank reserves by approximately 8 percentage points since 2015. The Dollar remains dominant in global debt issuance, cross-border transactions, and spot FX trading volumes [10][12][16] 3. **Structural Factors**: The US's share of global debt, GDP, and trade are more significant for the Dollar's internationalization than short-term financial swings. The gradual erosion of Dollar dominance is anticipated, but displacement appears distant [3][32][41] 4. **TINA Factor**: Attempts to diversify away from Dollar dominance are hindered by the unmatched scale, liquidity, and network effects of the Dollar. Alternatives like the Euro and Renminbi face significant challenges [4][58][61] 5. **Forward-Looking Dollar View**: The Dollar is expected to depreciate further due to less exceptional economic performance and a high valuation that needs correction. The Euro and Yuan are projected to strengthen due to favorable economic conditions in Europe and China [65][69][70] Additional Important Considerations 1. **Impact of US Policies**: The US's evolving trade and security policies may impact its share of global trade, which could have significant implications for Dollar internationalization. A 5 percentage point reduction in the US's share of global trade could lead to a ~2.5 percentage point decrease in the Dollar's global usage [42][45] 2. **Historical Context**: Historical patterns indicate that shifts in currency dominance can be slow and complex, often influenced by geopolitical factors and institutional considerations. The UK’s experience with Sterling illustrates this inertia [45][53] 3. **Stablecoins and Dollar Dominance**: The rise of Dollar-pegged stablecoins reinforces the Dollar's global standing, as the majority of circulating stablecoins are Dollar-based [54][60] 4. **Gradual Changes**: The report emphasizes that any erosion of Dollar dominance is likely to be a multi-decade process, while further Dollar depreciation is expected in the near term [71][74] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Dollar's current status and future outlook in the global financial system.

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for making difficult economic decisions without political pressure [1][2][3] - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by approximately 10% this year against major currencies, marking the largest appreciation in 50 years, which is linked to policy volatility and Fed credibility [2][3] - Traditional economic theories suggest that tariffs should lead to a stronger dollar and increased inflation, but current observations contradict this, indicating that inflationary effects from tariffs have only partially impacted the economy [4][5] Group 2 - The burden of tariffs is expected to be shared among companies and consumers, contradicting the belief that importers will absorb the costs without passing them on [5][6]

Economic Indicators vs. Stock Market Performance - There is a significant disconnect between economic indicators and stock market performance, with employment and inflation showing negative trends while financial markets, particularly the S&P 500, are reaching record highs [1][2][8] - The S&P 500 has increased by over 11% this year, contrasting with a downward revision of job growth estimates by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was the largest in the agency's history [2][3] Factors Influencing Stock Market Resilience - Poor job growth may lead the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which typically benefits stock prices by reducing borrowing costs [5] - The adoption of AI technology by companies could be contributing to job stagnation, which may positively impact shareholders of AI-related firms [6] - A weak U.S. dollar, which has depreciated by approximately 10% since January, is benefiting exporters and improving corporate earnings for S&P 500 companies [9][10] Impact of Tariffs and Economic Sentiment - Companies are finding ways to adapt to President Trump's tariffs, which has contributed to the stock market's performance despite negative economic signals [8] - Economists suggest that the weak dollar reflects a loss of confidence in the U.S. economy, yet it has simultaneously aided companies with significant international sales exposure [9][11]