文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 "市场永远不会错，意见常常都是错的。"这一洞见揭示了为什么有时价格走势会与基本面明显背离 ——市场可能已经消化了已知信息，正在等待新的驱动因素。 ——杰西·利弗莫尔《股票大作手回忆录》 基于我们对于交易者的访谈，亏损多发于过度自信，即基于长周期的"宏大叙事"过度忍让或 搁置了"择时"的需求，毕竟在沉溺于"情绪与梦想"的维度是，以"短期盈亏比"约束入场是个 没有想象力的"短视者"，进而形成追涨杀跌，持这类观点的研究人员也就不自觉落入叙事陷 阱，即FOMO交易，FEAR OF MISSING OUT，本质是过度自信。问题意识转移到怎么处 理"基本面和技术面背离"这个重要问题上，这是一个真问题，即它尚没有标准答案，但通常 困扰着整个市场。 基本结论：处理基本面与技术面分歧的关键在于识别矛盾本质、动态评估证据权重和过 往"共识性"基本面被定价的程度。历史经验表明，极端分歧时刻往往孕育重大机会，但需以 严谨分析为基础，避免陷入非理性博弈。 市场预期的超前性与认知局限 金融衍生品交易中有一个著名讨论：交易者必须对市场保持敬畏。这种敬畏本 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in U.S. stock markets, particularly the NASDAQ and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs, is attributed not only to technology giants but also to broader sector participation, indicating potential for further gains throughout the summer [1][3]. Market Trends - Initially, U.S. stocks faced significant declines due to tariff concerns, with technology stocks leading the downturn. However, as fears of economic recession eased and trade relations improved, a strong rebound occurred, expanding beyond the tech sector to include financial, industrial, and utility sectors [3][4]. - Indicators show an expanding market participation, with the number of S&P 500 stocks closing above their 50-day moving average returning to levels seen during the 2016 election period, suggesting a strengthening technical outlook [3]. - The ratio of advancing to declining stocks reached a new high, further indicating broader market engagement [3]. Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly diversifying their portfolios beyond technology stocks, with a focus on sectors previously overlooked. This shift is partly driven by concerns of missing out on market gains (FOMO trading) as tech valuations rise [4]. - Some professional investors are strategically reallocating their investments towards defense, finance, and international blue-chip stocks, seeking to reduce reliance on a single sector [4]. Sector Performance - Despite the overall market rally, small-cap stocks continue to lag behind major indices. Analysts suggest that a significant shift in investor risk appetite is necessary for small-cap stocks to catch up [6]. - Optimistic views exist regarding small-cap stocks, particularly local bank stocks, which are expected to benefit from lower financing costs due to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and less exposure to tariff impacts [6]. Technology Sector Outlook - While other sectors are beginning to catch up, the dominance of technology giants remains strong in the short term, with AI optimism continuing to be a key theme supporting high valuations in the tech sector [5].