文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 "市场永远不会错，意见常常都是错的。"这一洞见揭示了为什么有时价格走势会与基本面明显背离 ——市场可能已经消化了已知信息，正在等待新的驱动因素。 ——杰西·利弗莫尔《股票大作手回忆录》 基于我们对于交易者的访谈，亏损多发于过度自信，即基于长周期的"宏大叙事"过度忍让或 搁置了"择时"的需求，毕竟在沉溺于"情绪与梦想"的维度是，以"短期盈亏比"约束入场是个 没有想象力的"短视者"，进而形成追涨杀跌，持这类观点的研究人员也就不自觉落入叙事陷 阱，即FOMO交易，FEAR OF MISSING OUT，本质是过度自信。问题意识转移到怎么处 理"基本面和技术面背离"这个重要问题上，这是一个真问题，即它尚没有标准答案，但通常 困扰着整个市场。 基本结论：处理基本面与技术面分歧的关键在于识别矛盾本质、动态评估证据权重和过 往"共识性"基本面被定价的程度。历史经验表明，极端分歧时刻往往孕育重大机会，但需以 严谨分析为基础，避免陷入非理性博弈。 市场预期的超前性与认知局限 金融衍生品交易中有一个著名讨论：交易者必须对市场保持敬畏。这种敬畏本 ...

据了解，为激发青年一代对金融衍生品的探索热情，培育兼具家国情怀与专业素养的金融人才，为服务 国家战略、建设现代化金融体系注入新动能，中金所、中国期货业协会举办第十一届"中金所杯"全国大 学生金融知识大赛。 启动活动上，主办方详细介绍了中金所在金融知识普及与行业人才培育方面的工作成果和经验，也对同 学们提出了夯实理论基础、提升实践能力的殷切期望。 期货日报网讯（记者 崔蕾）9月19日，2025金融教育宣传周走进辽宁大学暨第十一届"中金所杯"全国大 学生金融知识大赛启动活动在辽宁大学隆重举行。本次活动是中国金融期货交易所（以下简称"中金 所"）积极落实三部委"金融教育宣传周"工作要求，普及金融知识，推动人才培养的具体举措。 中国证监会辽宁监管局党委委员、副局长赫荣祥，中国金融期货交易所党委委员、副总经理蔡向辉，辽 宁大学党委副书记张洪新，中天证券党委书记、董事长李安有，东方财富证券总经理戴彦出席本次活 动。辽宁大学经济学院、金融与贸易学院200多名师生共同参与本次活动。 参会领导共同主持启动仪式，本届大赛正式拉开帷幕。据了解，"中金所杯"由中金所及中国期货业协会 共同举办，赛事始终以"普及金融知识、培育行业人才、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The private equity fund industry has seen significant growth over the past decade, with its management scale increasing from 1.73 trillion to over 3 times that amount, indicating a strong demand and interest in this investment category [2]. Group 1: Growth of Private Equity - Ten years ago, there were only 21 private equity firms with over 10 billion in assets, while today that number has increased to 81 [4]. - Despite the high entry barriers for ordinary investors, private equity continues to attract attention and favor due to its flexibility [6]. Group 2: Flexibility of Private Equity - Private equity funds are highly flexible, catering to diverse and personalized investment needs, contrasting with public funds which are more standardized [8]. - The flexibility of private equity is attributed to several key "superpowers" [13]. Group 3: Key Advantages of Private Equity - **Flexible Positioning**: Unlike public funds, which have strict position limits (minimum 80% in stocks), private equity funds can adjust their positions freely, allowing for better performance in volatile or bear markets [15]. - **Broader Investment Scope**: Private equity funds can invest in a wider range of assets, including commodities and foreign exchange, beyond just stocks and bonds [19]. - **Use of Financial Derivatives**: Private equity funds can utilize various financial derivatives, which are often restricted for public funds, allowing for more complex strategies such as hedging and short selling [23]. - **Leverage Investment**: Private equity funds commonly use leverage, enhancing capital efficiency by borrowing to invest, which is less common in public funds [32].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing volatility in global financial markets has led to a heightened focus on risk management through hedging strategies among listed companies, with a notable rise in the number of companies utilizing derivative instruments for risk management [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Growth in Hedging Activities - In the first seven months of 2025, 1,383 A-share listed companies issued announcements related to hedging, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [2]. - Companies addressing exchange rate, interest rate, and commodity price risks saw respective increases of 13%, 16%, and 13% in the number of announcements [2]. Types of Risks Managed - Exchange rate risk is a significant concern, with 80% of A-share companies mentioning it in their hedging announcements [2]. - The focus on interest rate risk has been increasing, reflecting a growing awareness among companies during the global interest rate decline [2][3]. Commodity Hedging Trends - Common commodities for hedging include copper, aluminum, steel, lithium carbonate, and silver, with a notable increase in companies mentioning lithium carbonate futures [2]. - New commodity futures listed in 2024 have also been included in hedging strategies, with six companies explicitly hedging bottle chip futures in the first half of 2025 [2]. Industry Participation - Manufacturing companies, particularly in the chemical and agricultural processing sectors, are the primary participants in hedging activities [3]. - There has been a shift in how companies evaluate the effectiveness of hedging, moving from a focus solely on profit and loss to a more comprehensive assessment of fair value changes [3]. Successful Hedging Examples - Companies like Jinlongyu, Zhejiang Zhongtuo, Daodaquan, and Nangang have reported significant profits from their hedging activities, with Jinlongyu achieving a profit of 5.8 billion yuan from its hedging tools [4][5]. - Supply chain companies such as Wucai Zhongda and Xiamen Xiangyu also reported substantial gains from their hedging strategies, with reported amounts of 2.062 billion yuan and 614 million yuan, respectively [5]. Transparency and Regulation - New guidelines from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges require companies to disclose the combined profits and losses from hedging tools and underlying projects starting in 2024, enhancing transparency in hedging activities [5]. - Increased transparency in hedging disclosures is expected to improve investor understanding and confidence in company operations [5]. Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to adopt a systematic approach to hedging, starting with top-level design and team establishment, and gradually implementing hedging strategies [7]. - It is recommended that companies engage external experts to guide them through the complexities of hedging and to learn from industry best practices [7]. - A phased approach to hedging, beginning with small-scale pilots, is suggested to refine processes and build expertise [7].

Group 1 - The event aimed to enhance university students' understanding of the futures market and promote financial education through a collaboration between Guofu Futures and Southern Medical University [1][2] - The first online promotional activity of the "Zhengshang Cup" National College Student Financial Simulation Trading Competition was successfully held, focusing on futures knowledge [1] - The event included detailed explanations of competition rules, registration processes, and practical trading system operations to prepare students for participation [1] Group 2 - The activity was part of a broader initiative to promote financial literacy and risk management concepts among students, significantly improving their awareness of futures and financial derivatives [2] - Guofu Futures plans to continue fostering cooperation between universities and enterprises, providing more opportunities for students to engage with the market and develop skills [2] - The event received positive feedback, with students expressing anticipation for future competitions and practical activities related to futures [2]

Core Viewpoint - JEDI Group (08313) has issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately 730,000 Singapore dollars for the six months ending June 30, 2025, which represents an improvement compared to a net loss of about 1.42 million Singapore dollars in the same period last year, reflecting a reduction of approximately 690,000 Singapore dollars or 48.6% [1] Financial Performance - The expected financial performance improvement is primarily attributed to a fair value gain of financial derivatives amounting to approximately 670,000 Singapore dollars, an increase of 970,000 Singapore dollars compared to a prior loss of 290,000 Singapore dollars [1] - Employee costs have decreased by approximately 230,000 Singapore dollars, and income tax expenses have reduced by about 150,000 Singapore dollars [1] Revenue Analysis - Revenue has declined from approximately 1.76 million Singapore dollars in the previous period to about 1.39 million Singapore dollars in the current reporting period [1] - The revenue decrease is mainly due to a reduction in dividend income by approximately 130,000 Singapore dollars, a decrease in management fees from special purpose companies and real estate funds by about 300,000 Singapore dollars, and a reduction in performance fees from managed real estate funds by approximately 590,000 Singapore dollars [1] - This revenue decline was partially offset by a one-time bidding fee of about 500,000 Singapore dollars paid by Media Circle Fund and Laserblue for the successful acquisition of residential projects, along with an increase in company expenses of approximately 110,000 Singapore dollars [1]

Core Insights - The futures industry is experiencing steady growth, with significant performance differentiation among companies, highlighted by the impressive growth of Zhongcai Futures, which has become a model for the industry [1][3][4] Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, over 150 futures companies achieved a net profit of 5.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and operating revenue of 18.676 billion yuan, up 3.89% [1] - The trading volume and value in the national futures market increased significantly, with a total trading volume of 4.076 billion contracts and a trading value of 339.73 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 17.82% and 20.68% respectively [2] - The participation of private equity funds in the futures market reached a record high, growing by 15% compared to the end of the previous year [2] Company Strategies - Zhongcai Futures reported a net profit of 690 million yuan, a staggering increase of 376%, and operating revenue of 980 million yuan, up 303% [3][5] - The company's success is attributed to its strong research capabilities, effective team collaboration, and a robust client resource ecosystem supported by its parent company [5][6] - The shift from traditional brokerage income to a diversified revenue model, including proprietary investments and asset management, has been crucial for profit growth [2][3] Competitive Landscape - The industry is undergoing a strategic transformation from traditional brokerage services to diversified, high-value financial services, leading to increased profit margins for leading firms [3][7] - Larger firms are expected to maintain their competitive edge due to their capital strength, brand recognition, and advanced research capabilities, while smaller firms face increasing pressure [7][10] - Companies are encouraged to focus on differentiated services and niche markets to survive in a competitive environment [7][10] Future Outlook - The internationalization of the futures industry is expected to accelerate, providing broader development opportunities while raising the bar for operational capabilities [8] - The trend towards mixed operations and collaboration with other financial institutions will likely expand the business scope of futures companies [8][10] - Companies must leverage technology and enhance their service offerings to meet evolving market demands and investor needs [9][10]

General Principles - The company establishes a system to regulate financial derivatives trading and mitigate associated risks, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations [1] - Financial derivatives trading includes activities involving swap contracts, forward contracts, and non-standard options, with underlying assets being securities, indices, interest rates, exchange rates, currencies, commodities, or combinations thereof [1] Operational Principles - The company strictly controls the types and scale of financial derivatives trading, focusing on hedging and risk avoidance rather than profit-making [2] - Transactions are only permitted with qualified financial institutions approved by regulatory authorities, and the company must use its own funds for these activities [2] Approval Authority - Financial derivatives trading requires a feasibility analysis report to be submitted to the board for approval, with certain conditions necessitating shareholder approval [3] - The board or shareholders must approve the trading limits, and the general manager is authorized to manage and operate the derivatives business [3] Management and Internal Processes - The finance department is responsible for planning, funding, operations, accounting, and daily management of derivatives trading [4] - The audit and supervision department evaluates risks and compliance of trading activities, while the board office ensures legal compliance and information disclosure [4] Risk Management - The company must establish a robust risk management mechanism to prevent and address various risks associated with derivatives trading [6] - In case of significant risks, the finance department must report to the financial director and board secretary, who will discuss countermeasures [6] Information Disclosure - The company must disclose trading activities according to regulatory requirements, especially when losses exceed certain thresholds [7] - Documentation related to trading plans and agreements must be maintained for ten years by the finance department [7] Miscellaneous - The system will be revised in accordance with any new laws or regulations that conflict with it, and it will take effect upon board approval [8]

Meeting Overview - The 15th meeting of the 10th Board of Directors of Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited was held on June 30, 2025, via written signature, with all 9 directors present [1][2] - The meeting's convening and procedures complied with relevant laws and regulations [1] Resolutions Passed - The board approved the performance responsibility letter for management personnel for the year 2025, authorizing the chairman to sign it on behalf of the company [1] - The resolution regarding the performance responsibility letter received 7 votes in favor, with no votes against or abstentions [1] - A financial derivatives trading plan for 2025 was also approved to enhance the company's ability to manage price and exchange rate fluctuation risks [2] - This financial derivatives trading plan received unanimous approval with 9 votes in favor [2]

Group 1 - The core objective is to establish a comprehensive international commodity storage, processing, maritime service base, and trading center, referred to as "three bases and two centers," to enhance regional competitiveness and international influence in commodity resource allocation [1] - Zhejiang Free Trade Zone has made significant progress in the commodity industry chain, achieving 252 institutional innovations, including 125 national firsts and 13 replicable nationwide initiatives [2] - The energy storage capacity in Zhejiang has reached 58 million cubic meters, and it has built the largest integrated refining project in the country, significantly reducing the dependency on imported PX [2] Group 2 - The chemical industry faces challenges such as frequent price fluctuations and intense competition from international peers, necessitating the development of a multi-layered futures market to enhance competitiveness [2] - The futures market is expected to provide strong support for industry development by offering tailored hedging solutions and improving operational stability for enterprises [3] - The integration of digital finance and logistics resources is crucial for addressing financing difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises in the port economy, promoting economic upgrades [4]