Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. for December 2025 increased from 2.8% to 3.0% year-on-year, and the month-on-month change rose from 0.2% to 0.4% [2] - The overall PCE price index for December 2025 also saw a rise from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.4% [2] - The rebound in PCE price data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts in early 2026, reinforcing market expectations that rates will remain unchanged until at least May 2026 [2] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q4 2025 significantly dropped from 4.4% to 1.4%, falling short of the expected 3.0%, raising concerns about the economic outlook [2] - The dual risks of economic downturn and potential inflation rebound complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [2] - A potential military strike by President Trump against Iran could lead to a spike in international oil prices, further exacerbating inflation in the U.S. economy [2] Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook places the Federal Reserve in a precarious position, prompting investors to approach the U.S. capital markets with caution [3] - The anticipated weakening of the dollar may accelerate the outflow of international capital from U.S. markets [3]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 98.793, while spot gold opened at $4830.31 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4801.69 per ounce [1] - On the previous trading day, the US dollar index rose by 0.22% to close at 98.767, and spot gold increased by 1.45% to $4831.59 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals experienced declines, with spot silver down 1.61% to $93.04 per ounce, platinum down 0.12% to $2478.00 per ounce, and palladium down 1.87% to $1841.00 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of January 21, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 1124.17 tons, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by 129.49 tons to 13135.42 tons [2] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.00 tons to 1077.66 tons, whereas SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 149.42 tons to 16222.48 tons [2] Group 3 - The US is expected to discuss potential trade negotiations with China, as stated by US Trade Representative Lighthizer [4] - The European Parliament has announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU-US trade agreement [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, with a previous rate of 4.50% [2] - Most Federal Reserve officials anticipate at least three more rate cuts by the end of the year, with only one official advocating for a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, consistent with market expectations, while the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% for the fifth consecutive time [2] Group 2 - Upcoming key events include the release of manufacturing PMI for multiple countries on September 23, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, and the final value of Q2 real GDP and core PCE price index on September 25 [3] - On September 26, the U.S. will release the year-on-year core PCE price index for August, along with the final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for September [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman and Williams, are scheduled to speak on monetary policy and economic outlook on September 26 [3]

Core Insights - The revised annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the United States in Q2 is 3.3%, surpassing the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0% [1] Economic Indicators - The actual GDP growth rate indicates a stronger economic performance than anticipated, suggesting potential positive implications for investment opportunities in various sectors [1] - The upward revision from the previous quarter's value may reflect improved consumer spending and business investments, which are critical drivers of economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's actual GDP for the first quarter showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of -0.2%, which is better than the expected -0.7% and matches the previous value of -0.7% [1] Economic Indicators - The actual GDP figure indicates a slight contraction in the economy, reflecting challenges in growth despite being less severe than anticipated [1]