Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer America, my friends. I'm just trying to save a little money. My job is not just to entertain you, but to educate, to teach you. So, call me at 1800 743 CCMC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. All right, it's time we need to start worrying about the froth. I've been willing to look the other way on this issue because I figured speculative stocks would keep roaring because the public wants them badly enough to pay almost any price. But after day where the Dow dip ...

Core Insights - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is a crucial technology for AI servers and is expected to be widely adopted in the autonomous driving market in the future [1] - China's HBM industry is developing, with HBM2 and HBM2E currently in mass production, and HBM3 and HBM3E expected to achieve breakthroughs by 2026E/2027E [1] - SK Hynix is the global leader in the HBM market, holding a 55% market share, followed by Samsung at 41% and Micron at 3% [1] Group 1 - SK Hynix launched the world's first TSV-based HBM product in 2013 and has since introduced several generations of HBM products, including HBM2, HBM2E, and HBM3 [1] - In April 2023, SK Hynix completed functionality verification of a 12-layer HBM3 product (24 GB), and in August 2023, it launched the high-performance 8-layer HBM3E product [1] - The company plans to start mass production of the 12-layer HBM3E product (36 GB) in October 2024 and is developing a 16-layer HBM3E product with a capacity of 48 GB [1] Group 2 - SK Hynix's HBM stacking technology has evolved from TC-NCF and MR-MUF to Advanced MR-MUF, with significant developments in wafer-level packaging (WLP) and TSV technology since around 2000 [2] - The 12-layer HBM3 and HBM3E products utilize Advanced MR-MUF technology, and the upcoming 16-layer HBM3E product will also employ this technology [2] Group 3 - Both Samsung and SK Hynix have established their own HBM supply chains, with Samsung relying on Japanese and Korean equipment suppliers, while SK Hynix partners with HANMI Semiconductor and others [3] - HANMI Semiconductor holds approximately 65% of the global TCBonder market and nearly 90% in the HBM3E TCBonder sector, indicating a strong position in the supply chain [3]

Market Overview and Demand Drivers - The global HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) consumption is expected to reach 16.97 billion Gb by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 162.2%, driven by unexpected demand from NVIDIA and AWS for AI chips [3] - NVIDIA holds a 70% market share, with its HBM3e 12hi products being the main demand driver, while AWS's share increases to 8% due to geopolitical risks [3] - HBM3e series dominates the market with over 95% share, while HBM3 and HBM2e are gradually exiting the market [3] Supplier Competitive Landscape - SK Hynix is projected to ship 12.4 billion Gb in 2025, capturing 52% market share, benefiting from exclusive supply to NVIDIA [4] - Samsung Electronics faces short-term challenges due to certification delays, with a revised shipment forecast of 6.8 billion Gb and a market share drop to 29% [4] - Micron Technology is expected to achieve a shipment of 4.5 billion Gb in 2025, increasing its market share from 4% to 19% due to aggressive capacity expansion [5] Customer Demand Dynamics - NVIDIA's demand is driven by upgrades in the Blackwell platform, with a 36% quarter-on-quarter increase in HBM consumption in Q1 2025 [6] - AMD's MI350 series faces stagnation in market share at 7%, with reliance on Samsung for HBM3e 12hi limiting its bargaining power [6] - Google and AWS show diverging ASIC demand trends, with AWS increasing its share to 8% through a multi-supplier strategy [7] Technological Evolution and Cost Challenges - The mass production of HBM3e 12hi is a key technological breakthrough for 2025, increasing single-chip capacity from 24GB to 36GB [8] - Production challenges arise from increased TSV perforation numbers, with initial yields at 65% for SK Hynix and 75% for Micron [8] - Innovations in packaging technology, such as NVIDIA's CoWoS-L, increase complexity and costs, while HBM4's larger die size raises unit costs [8] Supply-Demand Balance and Long-term Risks - The HBM supply-demand ratio is expected to narrow to 39.7% in 2025 from 88.6% in 2024, indicating a trend towards balance [9] - Hidden risks include long CoWoS packaging cycles leading to stockpiling, and potential demand slowdown due to algorithm optimizations [9] - Long-term growth in the HBM market will depend on technological iterations rather than mere capacity expansion, with NVIDIA planning to launch a next-generation platform with 512GB capacity by 2028 [10]