Core Insights - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing a shift towards the integration of blind box models, driven by brands like Mixue Ice City and their collaborations with popular IPs [1][3][22] - The industry has faced a decline, with approximately 40,000 tea beverage stores closing in the past year, indicating a phase of accelerated market consolidation [3][4] - The price war initiated by platforms like Alibaba and Meituan has intensified competition, leading to reduced brand loyalty and increased price sensitivity among consumers [4][5][19] Industry Trends - The blind box model is emerging as a new growth strategy for tea beverage brands, allowing them to engage with younger consumers and create unique marketing experiences [3][9][11] - Brands are transitioning from relying on external IP collaborations to developing their own IPs, enhancing their storytelling and emotional connection with consumers [7][17][22] - The success of blind boxes is evident in their ability to drive sales and customer engagement, with brands like Ningji reporting significant user growth during promotional events [9][13] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with brands like Mixue Ice City maintaining high sales volumes through cost-effective pricing, while others like Nayuki are struggling with profitability due to their direct sales model [5][6] - The integration of blind boxes into the business model not only serves as a marketing tool but also represents a significant revenue stream for tea beverage brands [13][14] - The cultural narrative surrounding IPs is becoming increasingly important, as brands leverage their unique stories to differentiate themselves in a crowded market [17][20][22] Global Expansion - New tea beverage brands are exploring international markets, with a focus on building brand recognition and attracting local franchisees [20][21] - The cultural perception of Chinese tea beverages varies by region, presenting challenges for market entry, but successful IPs like Labubu provide inspiration for effective branding strategies [21][22] - The valuation of tea beverage brands is evolving, with a growing emphasis on the strength and potential of proprietary IPs as core assets rather than mere marketing tools [20][22]

中国银河证券主要观点如下： 玩具行业：千亿市场，大有可为 2023年我国玩具和游戏/传统玩具和游戏市场规模分别达3961/834亿元，同比分别+11.2%/5.1%，增速显 著高于全球市场，其中拼搭积木、教育科普、卡牌品类增速领先。相比欧美等成熟市场近年来玩具市场 销售额略有下滑的变动趋势，我国玩具市场连续多年表现出较高增速，2023年我国玩具市场占全球市场 比重达到13.6%，预计该占比在2028年将进一步上升至16.7%。 他山之石：类比日本少子化背景下玩具市场逆势扩张，我国玩具市场未来有哪些发展机遇? 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，我国玩具市场近年来快速扩容，在IP+盲盒的强获客逻 辑下，未来成长空间仍广阔。强购买力的Z世代消费群体和广阔的下沉市场空间创造了玩具市场长盛不 衰的强劲需求，而拼搭玩具/卡牌/潮玩手办/谷子等细分子行业增长强劲，不断拓宽增量空间。 2023-2024年伴随AI技术逐步成熟，市场中AI+玩具的结合越来越普遍。一方面，购物平台中玩具品类 智能化能力相较十年前显著提升，千元以内价格带虽不能实现具生智能，但语音陪伴、益智对话等功能 的AI玩具已占据一定市场份额。另一方面 ...