市 场 研 究 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 26 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】周二 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截至收盘，上证综指涨 0.87%，深证成指涨 1.53%，创业板指涨 1.77%。沪深京三市全天成交 额 18262 亿元，较上日小幅增加 858 亿元。全市场超 4300 只个股上 涨。板块题材上，游戏、AI 应用、CPO、贵金属等板块涨幅居前，军 工装备、养殖等板块跌幅较大。 【重要新闻】 【资源税有关政策执行口径明确】财政部、国家税务总局联合发布公 告，明确了资源税有关政策执行口径。公告主要从 9 个方面明确了对 资源税有关政策和征管问题的执行口径，包括不缴纳资源税的情形、 部分应税产品的适用税目和征税对象、特殊情形下应税产品的计税依 据、关联交易价格明显偏低的正当理由、自用连续生产应税产品定义、 减免税管理规定和计算方法、不同结算方式下资源税的纳税义务发生 时间等。 【神舟二十二号飞船载货飞赴中国空间站】11 月 25 日，搭载神舟二 十二号飞船的长征二号 F 遥二十二运载火箭，在酒泉卫星发射中心点 火发射。神 ...

智通财经APP获悉，万联证券发布研报称，近年来，伴随Z世代消费崛起及情绪价值需求凸显，IP经济 在传媒行业中持续高速发展，谷子、卡牌、盲盒等形式在衍生品市场里呈现强劲增长态势。该行认为， 随着优质IP跨媒介开发深化，其商业化变现具备广阔成长空间，IP经济未来市场规模具备较高增长潜 力。建议关注：1)具备丰富IP库和跨形态开发能力的公司;2)具备内容型IP源头生产能力、创造能力强的 内容厂商;3)聚焦衍生品设计、供应链整合及线下场景运营能力突出的公司。 万联证券主要观点如下： IP本身核心属性与运营策略互相配合，实现商业价值的变现与长期生命力的持续。商业化变现的深度与 广度，高度取决于IP形象的识别度、覆盖人群及地域的辐射范围、商业变现模式的多元性等核心要素; 而形象型IP生命周期的延续与热度的长效维持，则需依托人物矩阵的结构化打造、形象的持续更新迭 代，以及向内容型IP衍生发展。 IP衍生品 以IP的内容价值或形象价值为核心，通过多元载体将IP影响力具象化、消费化，既是粉丝情感的载体， 也是内容价值变现的关键环节。IP衍生品是指基于具有一定影响力的IP开发的相关周边产品，强调IP核 心价值的多场景延伸，在扩大 ...

IP 价值深挖，拉动衍生品市场新引擎 [Table_ReportType] ——IP 行业系列深度报告（一） [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 消费人群的转变及情绪价值凸显，带动 IP 经济的快速发展。随着时代 发展，内容消费不再仅依赖内容品质本身，更依托于用户情绪、社交表 达与文化认同的复合动因。其中，Z 世代作为新兴消费主力军，凭借其 规模体量、媒介习惯与价值偏好，对 IP 产品展现出更强的情感黏性与 消费活跃度。同时，随着消费观念从"功能性"向"情绪价值"转变， 悦己型、体验型与社交驱动型消费动因持续释放，为 IP 内容的延展性 与衍生品的商业化提供了更宽广的转化空间。 投资要点： IP 分为内容型 IP 与形象型 IP 两大核心类别，前者倚靠内容端创作， 后者倚靠独特视觉符号，两大类型 IP 可以相互转换，探寻更高的价值， 并以开发 IP 衍生品去加强商业化程度： 内容型 IP：跨形态开发呈常态化，持续挖掘商业潜力。1）文学型 IP& 影视型 IP：文学型 IP 与影视型 IP 跨形态转化较为频繁，同时网文型 IP 在文学型 IP 中占据核心主导地位，是文学 IP 生态的第一大创意策 源 ...

今天分享的是：2025潮玩、谷子、AI玩具，拥抱年轻人爱玩之心-中国银河 报告共计：14页 潮玩、谷子与AI玩具：Z世代消费新浪潮席卷而来 【关于我们】 在当代消费图景中，年轻一代的"爱玩之心"正悄然重塑市场格局。潮玩、谷子与AI玩具作为新兴赛道，凭借其独特的情感价值 与互动体验，迅速成为Z世代追捧的对象。这一现象不仅反映了消费偏好的代际变迁，更揭示出情绪经济在轻工业领域的深远影 响。随着年轻人日益愿意为兴趣与情感买单，玩具不再只是儿童的专属，而是演变为连接社群、表达个性的重要媒介。 潮玩市场近年来展现出强劲的增长势头。以泡泡玛特为代表的品牌，通过IP运营与盲盒模式成功撬动消费者收藏欲望，复购率 持续攀升。数据显示，中国潮玩市场规模从2015年至2022年复合增长率高达34%，2024年预计突破760亿元。Z世代作为消费主 力，其月可支配收入超过3500元，消费力不容小觑。他们不仅追求产品的艺术性与独特性，还通过二手社群交易增强归属感与 认同感。与此同时，潮玩品牌加速线下布局，一线城市门店密集，而下沉市场仍具广阔空间，未来增长潜力显著。 "谷子"作为动漫、游戏衍生产品的统称，亦在年轻群体中掀起热潮。从徽章、海 ...

中信证券发布研报称，2025年Q1-Q3轻工板块收入、利润承压，但其中造纸、包装印刷率先修复，符合 年中的判断。展望2026年，反内卷、创新与出海将成为轻工行业的发展主线。国内市场，反内卷是主旋 律，造纸行业预计底部改善，金属包装行业将迎来春天。AI技术(AI眼镜、AI玩具等)将为行业注入新活 力，而传统赛道的新势能也值得关注，如IP消费、产品的跨界融合与功能性升级；国际市场，产能出海 步入提效阶段，具有性价比优势、技术优势的品牌出海将是重中之重。 中信证券主要观点如下： 业绩回顾：板块整体承压，造纸、包装印刷率先修复。 2025Q1-Q3家居板块净利润由正转负，板块盈利端压力较大；文娱轻工板块营业收入与净利润降幅Q3较 Q2均有所收窄；造纸板块盈利Q1亏损、Q2高增，Q3实现大幅增长，提前于收入修复；包装印刷板块 2025Q1-Q3营业收入同比增长9.6%，净利润同比增长12.7%，表现最亮眼。 展望一：反内卷改善行业供需格局。 金属包装：迎来行业春天。2025年奥瑞金（002701）收购中粮包装后，行业CR3集中度70%以上，我们 预计2026年二片罐行业总产能有望下降至约760亿罐，行业需求有望提升至接 ...

Core Insights - The animation film industry in China is experiencing a resurgence, shifting focus from creating standalone works to developing intellectual properties (IPs) that can generate multiple revenue streams [2][3][22] Industry Trends - Domestic animation films have a clear advantage in the IP sector due to their broad audience appeal and reduced risks associated with geopolitical tensions, particularly with Japan [3] - Despite a generally sluggish film market, animation has shown strong performance, with titles like "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" and "Boonie Bears" achieving significant box office success [3][6] Company Strategies - Companies like Light Chaser Animation have pivoted towards IP management, with successful franchises like "Nezha" leading to extensive merchandise development, covering over 30 categories and 500 products, with potential total sales reaching hundreds of billions [5] - Shanghai Film has also capitalized on IPs, with "Wandering Earth" contributing to a 101.6% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, amounting to 3.61 billion yuan [6] - Wanda Film, leveraging its strong distribution channels, has expanded into gaming and merchandise, creating over 60 types of products related to "White Snake: The Legend" [11] Future Developments - Light Chaser is advancing multiple projects, including sequels and new IPs, while also exploring merchandise opportunities in various sectors, including gaming and theme parks [7] - Shanghai Film is actively developing its own products and collaborating with over 40 brands, with expectations for derivative sales to exceed 2.5 billion yuan by year-end [9] - Companies like Maoyan Entertainment are entering the animation space with new brands and IP collaborations, indicating a growing trend in the industry [19][20] Market Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a shift towards non-box office revenue, with companies aiming to replicate the successful revenue models seen in Hollywood, where box office and non-box office income are more balanced [22] - The current wave of IP and derivative product development reflects a strategic response to market trends, with companies diversifying their offerings beyond traditional film revenue streams [22]

许纪霖观察到，这一代人正试图在情感层面建构出一个新的精 神世界：他们告别了上一代人奉信的崇高观念，却在数字化与 社群化的语境中，重新搭建了属于自己的"抽象世界"。 作者： 李佩珊 封图：本报资料室 "50后"许纪霖，在长达四十年的学术生涯中，始终穿行于两条路径之间：作为思想史学者，他自20世纪80年代起在启蒙与儒家之间的思想对话中占据 重要位置，深植于中国现代思想的谱系之中；作为他长期研究对象——公共知识分子中的一员，他始终对社会现场保持某种热忱，从未放弃对时代的观 察与回应。近年来，他的目光越发投向一个没有进入主流学术现场，但实则至关重要的议题：年轻人到底在想什么？他们真正需要的是什么？ 在上一篇专访中，许纪霖以"懂我"与"陪伴"两个关键词，勾勒出这一代人的精神底色。他们主动告别宏大叙事，更倾向在轻盈、流动、短效的情绪机制 中安顿自身，"情绪"逐渐取代"情感"成为主导经验，"轻资产关系""搭子文化""树洞式共情"构成了一种去深度、低承诺却高频运转的精神自保方式。 而在本篇访谈中，我们将进一步深入这些情绪如何被具象化：它们以何种方式凝聚为社群，又如何构成某种意义上的"精神性"结构。 许纪霖观察到，这一代人正试 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in consumer behavior from "necessities" to "self-indulgent" products, emphasizing the emotional and identity aspects of modern consumption [1] - It highlights the concept of "emotional value" in new consumption, where consumers prioritize products that fulfill their emotional needs over mere functionality [4][5] Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The essence of new consumption is respecting emotional needs, with consumers seeking happiness and fulfillment from their purchases [4] - In a mature consumer society, the value paid for a product is more related to the satisfaction it provides rather than its production cost [5] - The article identifies a trend where consumers are willing to pay for non-essential items that bring them joy, encapsulated in the phrase "not necessary, but very much wanted" [4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in New Consumption - To identify genuine investment opportunities, companies must be able to continuously create new products that resonate with consumer desires [5] - Successful companies in the new consumption space are characterized by a democratic culture where product managers' insights are valued, fostering innovation [5] - The founder's alignment with consumer needs and their commitment to the brand's vision are crucial for long-term success [5] Group 3: Financial Management and Investment Strategy - Consumers are encouraged to respect the principle of living within their means while planning for the future, balancing emotional spending with savings [7] - Transforming "consumption power" into "investment power" is essential, as understanding the emotional drivers behind new consumption can help predict market trends and purchasing power [7] - The article suggests that consumers should consider the investment potential of companies behind products that bring them joy, such as collectibles or concert experiences [8]

Core Insights - The younger generation is constructing a new spiritual world on an emotional level, moving away from the lofty ideals of previous generations and building their own "abstract world" within a digital and communal context [2][5][6] - "Molecular communities" have emerged, characterized by small yet cohesive groups that foster emotional connections and a new type of "emotional economy" centered around shared experiences [2][12] - The phenomenon of emotional expression and community building is reshaping how individuals find meaning and belonging, indicating the arrival of a "new emotional economy era" [2][8][12] Emotional Economy and Community - The younger generation engages in activities like concerts and fan culture, which serve as emotional outlets and create a sense of being seen and shared experiences [2][10] - These activities are not merely escapism; they provide a space for emotional connection and community, contrasting with the isolation often felt in daily life [9][12] - The rise of "2.5D" spaces, where virtual and real-life interactions blend, highlights the need for communal experiences that affirm identity and belonging [10][11] Cultural Shifts and Ideological Changes - The shift from grand narratives to personal, relatable experiences reflects a broader cultural change, where young people prioritize concrete, everyday realities over abstract ideals [5][6] - The concept of "playing with abstraction" signifies a departure from traditional belief systems, leading to the creation of a "godless transcendent world" that is unique to the younger generation [6][7] - Shanghai's cultural landscape, characterized by its openness to new ideas and practices, has become a hub for this new generation's cultural expressions, particularly in the realm of "2D" and "2.5D" cultures [20][21][23] Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the emotional connections formed in these communities, there is a concern that they may not translate into meaningful engagement with the real world, leading to a cycle of escapism [2][9][33] - The challenge lies in whether these "molecular communities" can evolve into a cohesive cultural collective that integrates into broader societal structures [19][26] - The potential for new cultural expressions and narratives that resonate with the younger generation's experiences remains an open question, as they navigate their identities in a rapidly changing world [34][35][36]

Core Insights - The rise of "Guzi" culture, characterized by bags adorned with badges and creative merchandise, reflects a growing trend in cultural IP derivatives, contributing to the expansion of the "Guzi economy" [1] - The market size of China's "Guzi economy" is projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 40.63% increase from 2023, and is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2029 [1] - The "Guzi economy" thrives on high-quality products that meet consumer demands, with companies focusing on both creativity and product quality to enhance consumer satisfaction [1] Group 1 - The "Guzi economy" is a manifestation of the vibrant humanistic economy, driven by cultural creation and economic activities [1] - Consumers are increasingly demanding higher quality and creativity in cultural products, prompting companies to innovate and improve production efficiency through technologies like 3D printing [1] - The emergence of "Guzi" has led to multiple consumption opportunities, enhancing the resilience of the market and expanding revenue channels through diverse profit models [2] Group 2 - The cultural creative industry is extending its value chain into tourism and sports, creating new business models and vitality [2] - A case study in Beijing illustrates that focusing on cultural trends and creating experiential consumption ecosystems can significantly boost foot traffic and sales [3] - The continuous attraction of the cultural creative industry is rooted in the vitality of culture, which enhances its integration with various sectors [2][3]