23 January – 29 January 2026 China Retail & E-commerce Weekly Update | I. Sector Review 2 | | --- | | Internet & E-commerce 2 | | Douyin explores independent app for in-store group buying business 2 | | JD.com: National subsidy now available for 15 provinces through JD NOW 2 | | 2,415 new overseas brands open first stores on Tmall Global in 2025 2 | | Supermarkets & Hypermarkets 3 | | Chaohesuan NB opens first South China store 3 | | Apparel 3 | | Anta to become Puma's largest single shareholder 3 | | Food ...

2025年，白酒行业正遭遇十年来严峻的发展挑战：头部酒企纷纷启动降度降档战略，区域酒企则面临降 价与增速放缓的双重压力。 笔者认为，行业此次深度调整并非单一因素导致，而是结构性变革、经济环境波动、政策调控导向与消 费需求变迁等多重力量交织作用的结果。唯有深入剖析这些核心变量，方能精准把握即时零售在行 业"危"与"机"转换中的关键价值。本文将系统阐述即时零售如何成为白酒行业破解当前困局的核心抓 手。 2025年白酒行业面临的五大痛点 ●经济承压下的消费能力理性回归 2025年前三季度，国内生产总值同比增长5.2%，但居民人均可支配收入实际增速仅为4.9%，其中，财 产净收入增速更是低至0.7%，这一态势直接削弱了高端白酒的消费支撑基础。叠加居民消费价格指数 （CPI）连续两个月负增长、工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）长达36个月负增长的通缩压力，企业经 营效益承压，商务宴请预算大幅缩减，百元内本地白酒逐渐成为市场主流选择，高端白酒需求持续处于 低迷状态。 值得关注的是，这一消费趋势与即时零售"平价化、小单化"的核心特征高度契合，即时零售渠道正成为 消化中低端白酒产能的核心载体。 ●政策调控下的消费场景迭代升级 ...

Group 1 - Instant retail is significantly transforming the consumption landscape of liquor, particularly in the white liquor segment, with a competitive landscape formed by various models including comprehensive e-commerce platforms and niche platforms [1] - Major e-commerce giants dominate the market, with Meituan's flash purchase achieving a phenomenal performance during the "618" shopping festival, where the transaction volume of white liquor surged over 90 times within 20 hours, and daily order peaks exceeded 150 million [1] - JD's liquor platform has achieved "29-minute delivery" across its logistics network, while new player Taobao Flash Purchase has seen rapid growth, with white liquor sales increasing by 172% since its launch in May [1] Group 2 - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for white liquor companies as they transition from passive cooperation to actively engaging in instant retail, with industry leader Kweichow Moutai initiating deep collaborations with Taobao Flash Purchase and launching over 1,000 official stores offering "30-minute delivery" [2] - Other brands like Guotai Liquor and Nuodai Shede have also announced strategic partnerships with instant retail platforms, while Meituan Flash Purchase has launched the industry's first "full-chain authenticity system" in collaboration with major brands to address online trust issues [2] - Companies like Luzhou Laojiao are also launching their own instant retail services or deepening partnerships with platforms [2] Group 3 - The rapid channel revolution poses multiple risks, primarily the collapse of the pricing system, as e-commerce platforms use premium liquor as loss leaders, leading to significant price cuts that pressure traditional distribution channels [3] - Mid-range brands face even greater pressure, and traditional distributors are concerned about becoming mere "delivery tools" for platforms, with high platform fees and complex traffic rules squeezing their profits [3] - Trust and experience remain shortcomings in online channels, as the social, tasting, and collectible attributes of high-end liquor cannot be fully satisfied online, and counterfeit risks are a major concern for consumers [3] - Industry analysis suggests that while instant retail is a necessary response to changing consumer behavior, the ultimate goal should not be a zero-sum game between platforms and traditional channels, but rather finding a balance that protects pricing integrity and distributor interests [3]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's Q1 FY2026 financial report indicates strong growth in AI product usage among clients, leading to increased demand for training and inference services, which is expected to drive continued growth in Alibaba Cloud's business in the coming quarters [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba's cloud business experienced a year-over-year growth of 26%, with a profit margin reaching 8.8% [4]. - The company plans to invest 380 billion yuan over three years in AI, with capital expenditures subject to fluctuations due to supply chain dynamics [6]. Group 2: AI and Cloud Business - There is a clear trend of clients developing AI products internally, leading to a surge in demand for both training and inference services [1][5]. - The company is focusing on acquiring more users and scenarios in the Chinese cloud computing market, prioritizing user acquisition over immediate profit margins [5]. Group 3: Instant Retail and Flash Purchase - The flash purchase business has exceeded expectations, achieving a peak daily order volume of 120 million and significantly increasing the number of active users [2][3]. - The company aims to integrate Tmall stores into the flash purchase platform, which is expected to generate 1 trillion yuan in GMV over three years [4]. Group 4: Strategic Investments - The company is balancing investments between AI and consumer opportunities, recognizing both as historic opportunities for growth [11]. - The flash purchase initiative is expected to enhance the overall e-commerce business by increasing user engagement and reducing marketing costs [3][4].

Market Competition & Strategy - The food delivery war is driven by giants seeking new growth points beyond saturated markets [1][2] - E-commerce platforms enter food delivery to boost traffic and user engagement, transferring customer acquisition budgets from online advertising to subsidies [3][6] - Meituan defends its position with subsidies and innovative solutions like Raccoon Kitchen, a standardized kitchen model [6][7] Financial Implications & Investment - The intense competition leads to falling stock prices for Meituan, Alibaba, and JD com, with potential burn rates reaching 25 billion yuan (approximately $345 million USD) in Q2 2024 [8] - Alibaba possesses the most ammunition for a subsidy war, with over 80 billion yuan (approximately $11 billion USD) in free cash flow in fiscal year 2025 and over 400 billion yuan (approximately $55 billion USD) in cash and short-term investments [9] - Investment banks question the value of burning money in food delivery versus investing in high-growth potential markets like AI [9][19] Market Outlook & Predictions - UBS estimates the food delivery and instant retail market could double to 15 trillion yuan (approximately $207 billion USD) in three years, representing 10% of the e-commerce market, but operating profit margins will be low at 25% [11][12][13] - Goldman Sachs predicts a final market share distribution of 55%:35%:1 for Meituan, Alibaba, and JD com respectively, with Meituan remaining the largest [21][22] - Goldman Sachs anticipates Meituan's EBIT per takeaway order to decrease to 70 yuan (approximately $96 USD), and instant retail to drop to 0, before recovering to 1 yuan (approximately $014 USD) after 2027 [23]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant transformation and growth of the alcoholic beverage retail market in China, projecting the market size to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2025, up from 1.4 trillion yuan in 2019, with a dominant share held by baijiu at approximately 60% [6][8][12]. Market Overview - The alcoholic beverage market in China is experiencing continuous growth, with a projected increase from 1.4 trillion yuan in 2019 to over 2 trillion yuan by 2025 [6][7]. - Baijiu dominates the market with a 60% share, while wine and beer, although smaller, are growing rapidly [8][10][11]. Consumption Trends - There is a clear trend of consumption upgrading, with consumers increasingly demanding higher quality, brand recognition, and cultural significance in alcoholic products [12]. - The integration of online and offline channels is becoming crucial, with new retail and social e-commerce emerging as significant sales channels [14]. New Retail Model - The new retail model combines online, offline, and logistics, leveraging technologies like big data to reduce traditional distribution costs and streamline supply chains [16][17]. - The new retail market for alcoholic beverages was approximately 151.6 billion yuan in 2022, expected to reach 174 billion yuan by 2025 [18]. Instant Retail Market - The instant retail market for alcoholic beverages is showing remarkable growth, with Meituan's flash purchase service reporting over 60% year-on-year growth in transaction volume in the first half of 2024, and baijiu sales doubling [31][38]. - The penetration rate of instant retail is expected to reach 6% by 2027, with a market size of around 100 billion yuan [35]. Consumer Demographics - The core consumer group for alcoholic beverages is young adults aged 18-35, who account for 68% of sales, with a notable preference for convenience and personalization in their purchasing habits [42][43]. - Diverse consumption scenarios include late-night drinking and festive gatherings, with a significant portion of orders coming from these contexts [41]. Challenges in Traditional Channels - Traditional distribution channels face issues such as redundant supply chain layers, high costs, and inefficiencies, which complicate the flow of products from manufacturers to consumers [46][47][48]. - The complexity of multi-tiered distribution leads to inflated prices and slow response times in meeting consumer demand [49].

Group 1 - The recent competition in instant retail is intense, with Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale launching amidst a backdrop of previous divestments by Alibaba, raising questions about the company's strategic direction [1] - The concept of new retail aims to integrate online and offline channels, but its implementation has faced significant challenges, leading to underwhelming results [1] - The decline in revenue growth for traditional shopping centers post-2010 is attributed to the rise of e-commerce, which has diminished the appeal of the shopping center model [3] Group 2 - The chain supermarket industry experienced rapid growth from 2014 to 2020, but the impact of e-commerce on this sector was relatively limited compared to other retail formats [5] - The shift in consumer behavior towards online purchasing, especially for daily necessities, has led to a significant decline in revenue for offline supermarkets since 2020 [5][11] - The traditional supermarket model is losing its growth potential, with online platforms gaining pricing power, which has shifted the competitive landscape [9][11] Group 3 - The cash consumption for fixed asset construction in the chain supermarket sector has seen a dramatic decline since 2020, returning to levels not seen in 15 years, indicating a lack of expansion potential [8] - The transition of offline supermarkets into "front warehouses" for online businesses highlights the changing dynamics in the retail industry, with online companies increasingly dominating the market [11] - The strategic move by JD.com to launch a high-frequency delivery service aims to leverage its logistics advantages and expand into flash sales, reflecting the ongoing evolution in retail strategies [11][12] Group 4 - The acceleration of the retail landscape towards online channels post-2020 has favored online enterprises, making the recent moves by JD.com and Alibaba's Taobao unsurprising [13] - The integration of online and offline retail is not outdated but rather a matter of timing, as the industry adapts to changing consumer behaviors [13]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of mobile internet usage, highlighting a shift towards "stock competition and incremental innovation" as the industry matures [9][10]. User Behavior and Trends - As of January 2025, the average number of apps used per user is 28.7, with a total usage time of 171.4 hours and 2487.9 interactions per month, indicating a slight increase in app usage but a rare decline in interaction frequency [12][14]. - The growth in active users is shifting from traditional sectors like e-commerce and finance to emerging fields such as AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content), smart home technology, and vehicle services, with AIGC seeing a remarkable 244.7% year-on-year growth [15][14]. Industry Competition Dynamics - By February 2025, nearly half of the mobile internet sectors are dominated by the top three players, capturing over 80% of the traffic, reflecting a highly concentrated competitive environment [18][20]. - The competition is intensifying, particularly in the AI sector, where new and existing players are rapidly vying for user attention, exemplified by the significant user growth of platforms like DeepSeek [3][18]. Strategic Implications for Platforms - Platforms are increasingly adopting refined operational strategies to retain users and prevent traffic loss, particularly in competitive sectors like e-commerce, where platforms like Taobao, Pinduoduo, and JD.com are in constant user battle [22][23]. - The article emphasizes the importance of tracking user migration patterns and behaviors to optimize user retention strategies and enhance market competitiveness [20][29]. Emerging Opportunities - The rise of short-form content and AI-driven applications is creating new engagement opportunities, with platforms like Douyin and JD.com seeing significant user overlap and growth in their respective app ecosystems [33][41]. - The integration of AI models into various sectors, including automotive, is driving innovation and user engagement, with notable increases in active vehicle numbers among leading manufacturers [51][47].