1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has not yet emerged from an independent market and is continuously suppressed by market risk appetite, with a significant "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds [94]. - The next - stage monetary policy will continue the moderately loose tone but focus more on structural tools, and the scope for overall easing may be limited. The interest rate center lacks further downward momentum, and the rebound power of treasury bond futures is insufficient. The liquidity factor is expected to dominate the short - term bond market trading logic [94]. - It is expected that the treasury bond futures market will show a volatile and bearish pattern, and there are currently no trend - based long - buying opportunities [94]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - The main contracts of treasury bond futures all declined this week. The TL (30 - year) main contract fell 1.28%, the T (10 - year) main contract fell 0.59%, the TF (5 - year) main contract fell 0.27%, and the TS (2 - year) main contract fell 0.03% [11][15][21]. - The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all increased, while the open interest of the TS, T, TF, and TL main contracts all decreased [29]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Policy and regulatory news: The five - department joint notice expanded the withdrawal conditions for personal pensions; the central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan; the Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce the "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" [7]. - Domestic economic data: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.63% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate remained flat year - on - year. In July, RMB loans decreased by 5 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase in the reduction of 31 billion yuan; the social financing increment in July was 116 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 38.93 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in July was 5.6%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points [8]. - Overseas economic data: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest since May 2022. The US initial jobless claims last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on the issue of interest rate cuts [8]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - The yield spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds narrowed slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds widened slightly [42]. - The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures narrowed [46]. - The inter - term spread of the 10 - year contract narrowed, and the inter - term spread of the 30 - year contract widened slightly. The inter - term spread of the 2 - year contract fluctuated, and the inter - term spread of the 5 - year contract widened [50][57]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased significantly [63]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - The overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell back to around 1.47% and fluctuated [67]. - The yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened across the board. The yields of 1 - 7 - year bonds increased by 2 - 5bp, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds increased by 5bp and 6bp to 1.78% and 2.03% respectively [67]. - The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds widened, and the spread between 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [71]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 219.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations in the open market this week, with 93.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 126.52 billion yuan [74]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 196.8063 billion yuan, the total repayment was 148.1147 billion yuan, and the net financing was 48.6917 billion yuan [77]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1321, with a cumulative depreciation of 50 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB narrowed [82]. - The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond strengthened slightly, and the VIX index rose slightly [87]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond in China increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [90]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic**: In July, the economic recovery slowed down, with marginal weakening on both the supply and demand sides. With the introduction of new policies in August, future economic data may pick up [93]. - **Overseas**: The US economic data has fluctuated recently, and the Fed is divided on the issue of interest rate cuts. The market is closely watching the speech of the Fed Chairman at the Jackson Hole meeting [93]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the treasury bond futures market will show a volatile and bearish pattern, and there are currently no trend - based long - buying opportunities [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows complex trends across various sectors including agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and options - finance. Different factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events influence the prices and trading strategies of different products [7][11][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the exemption of personal income tax on child - rearing subsidies starting from January 1, 2025 [7]. - China's new - period LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5%, in line with market expectations [7]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes revealed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were disagreements on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [7]. - Trump called on Fed理事Cook to resign, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA director accused Cook of mortgage fraud [8]. - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of stability, development, ecology, and border - strengthening in Tibet and the construction of major projects [8]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed promoting the upgrading of the biomedical industry [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a round - table meeting with foreign - funded enterprises in the Pearl River Delta [8]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce the "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to boost industrial transformation [9]. - In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, down 4.9% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year, with inventory below the warning line but above the reasonable range [9]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: On August 20, the sugar main contract closed at 5676 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation. Brazil's production decline provided support, but concentrated imports pressured the spot market. The domestic inventory pressure is light, but the de - stocking process is slow. The price is expected to oscillate, with key support at 5650 yuan [11]. - Corn: On August 20, the corn main contract closed at 2170 yuan/ton, breaking through the previous support at 2180 yuan. New grain supply pressure and import increases affected the market. Feed consumption was suppressed, but deep - processing profits improved. A bearish operation is recommended, with new support at around 2140 yuan [11]. - Live Pigs: The national live - pig price was stable. Supply - side resistance to price drops and improved demand due to cooler weather led to a stable - to - rising price in the short - term. However, the futures market showed a bearish trend [11]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price was stable. High egg - laying hen inventory, large cold - storage stocks, and increased small - sized egg supply weakened the price increase momentum. A strategy of shorting on rebounds and inter - month arbitrage is recommended [11]. - Cotton: The international cotton market has sufficient supply. In the domestic market, the approaching new - flower listing may increase supply, while the demand in the cotton yarn market is improving. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended as the price showed a weak oscillation [11][13]. 2.2 Energy - Chemical Products - Urea: The domestic urea price increased significantly, but downstream follow - up enthusiasm weakened. The industry's daily output was 19.52 tons, and inventories were rising. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, but the impact of environmental policies and high finished - product inventory need to be monitored. Pay attention to India's tender and export policies [15]. - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda in Shandong showed an upward trend. With the approaching peak demand season, a bullish strategy on dips for the 2511 contract is recommended [15]. - Coking Coal: The spot prices of coking coal and coke showed some fluctuations. The steel - coke game continued, and the high iron - water output provided support. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate [16]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper price continued to oscillate due to a lack of new macro - drivers and increased inventory. The aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level, waiting for the demand performance in the peak season [18][20]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina increased, and the demand was relatively stable. The spot price was weak, and the 2601 contract was running weakly. Attention should be paid to bauxite supply disruptions [20]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The spot market trading was average, and inventory data was mixed. Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [20]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of ferroalloys showed a downward trend with a slowdown in decline. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, and risk control is recommended for hedging and speculation [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate dropped sharply, breaking through the key support level. Although cost support increased, supply concerns were alleviated. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, focusing on the implementation of production - cut policies in Jiangxi [20][22]. 2.4 Options - Finance - Options: On August 20, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume of stock - index options increased. Different options showed various changes in PCR and implied volatility. Trend investors can focus on inter - variety arbitrage, and volatility investors can short volatility [24]. - Stock Indices: The A - share market showed a volatile trend. With the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10 - year high, investors' sentiment fluctuated. Different investment strategies are recommended for different types of investors, and a bullish view on the market is maintained [25][26][27].