证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 4 日 [Table_Title] 2026 资金面， "低波"或是常态 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之十一 [Table_Summary] ► 2025 年，资金面"波"平浪静 2025 年，适度宽松的主基调下，资金面整体延续平稳，节奏上 呈现"先紧后松"的特征。整体可以分为两个阶段，阶段一：长端利率 快速下行，央行重提货币总闸门，通过暂停国债买卖操作，维持谨慎 投放，引导资金面整体维持紧平衡状态。阶段二：利率回归合理区 间，央行政策态度转为"适度宽松"。资金利率回归低位运行状态，绝 对水平逐步向政策利率（OMO）附近收敛，利率波幅也逐步收窄。 ► 资金低波的背后，货币框架之变革 资金波动整体收敛的背后，一方面是利率传导体系的转变。央行 通过调整利率走廊，引导短期利率运行区间逐步收窄。同时，将 OMO 利率确立为核心政策利率，强化其锚定作用。至此，我国利率 体系传导，逐渐从以MLF 为中枢的传导机制"MLF→LPR/DR→市场利 率"，转向"7 天逆回购利率→DR→市场利率"的新路径。 另一方面，是资金投放 ...

3、央行货币政策委员会召开第四季度例会，研究下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量 政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情 况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。会议再次强调维护资本市 场稳定，但未提及房地产市场。 4、外汇市场迎来标志性时刻。12月25日，离岸人民币对美元盘中升破"7"整数关口，为15个月来首次， 最高触及6.9985。与此同时，在岸人民币对美元逼近"7"关口，最高触及7.0053，创15个月新高。 5、美国总统特朗普发帖称，希望接替鲍威尔的下一任美联储主席在经济和市场表现良好时降息，而不 是因通胀担忧提前"扼杀行情"。他批评当前市场逻辑已变成"好消息反而利空股市"，强调低利率有助于 推动股市上涨、提振经济和改善住房负担，说股市上涨可能推动美国的GDP一年增长10个、15个甚至20 个或是更多的百分点。 市场回顾 一、期货市场 | | 本周涨跌幅 | 本月涨跌幅 | | 今年以来涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE布油 | | 0.47 | -2.80 | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C | | C | | C | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | C | | | | C 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/12/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.27 | -0.10 | DR007 | 1.41 | -2.30 | | | GC001 | 1.86 | 33.50 | GC007 | 1.71 | 13.00 | | हि | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | -0.10 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 而 | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | -1.25 | 5年期国债 | 1.53 | -1.50 ...

LPR 连续 7 个月保持不变；资金面延续宽松，债市承压走弱 【内容摘要】12 月 22 日，资金面保持宽松态势；12 月 LPR 报价继续持稳，叠加股市上涨，债 市承压走弱；转债市场跟随权益市场延续上行，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上 行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【LPR 连续 7 个月保持不变】12 月 22 日，央行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，1 年期 LPR 为 3.00%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.50%，均与上月持平，连续 7 个月保持不变。 【李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领导小组会议】12 月 22 日，中 共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领 导小组会议，深入研究《纲要草案》编制工作。李强指出，目前《纲要草案》的编制已经有了 较好基础，下一步要集中力量、精益求精做好修改完善工作。要着眼于更好发挥规划引领作用， 紧紧围绕推动高质量发展这个主题来设定指标、安排政策、谋划项目，推动经济实现质的有效 提升和量的合理增长。 【关于地方政府债务风险问题整改，财政部、 ...

董希淼预计，2026年将更加注重发挥结构性货币政策工具作用，引导金融资源更多流向科技创新、 绿色发展、提振消费。未来一段时间，货币政策将更加注重把握和处理好短期与长期、稳增长与防风 险、内部与外部这三方面的关系。 中信证券固定收益分析师赵诣分析认为，从中央经济工作会议的表述上看，重点更多落在政策的效 率和主动性上；对宏观政策表述为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，或意味着后续政策改革将更加基于 长远经济周期变化。 王青进一步表示，6月以来LPR报价一直"按兵不动"，主要原因是受年初以来出口持续超预期、国 内新质生产力领域较快发展等支撑，今年宏观经济顶住外部环境剧烈波动压力，增长韧性超出普遍预 期，实现全年5.0%左右的经济增长目标没有悬念。因此，当前政策继续加力的迫切性不高，货币政策 保持较强定力。 对于下一步政策走向，业内专家表示，近日召开的中央经济工作会议明确要求，继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等 多种政策工具。这也意味着，根据内外部环境变化和经济发展需要，要适时运用货币政策工具，同时更 多考虑政策有效性和针对性，既要加大力度支持经 ...

新华财经北京12月22日电（王菁）债市周一（12月22日）表现偏弱，长端午后率先回调，短债基本持 稳，国债期货主力全线收跌，银行间现券收益率曲线再趋陡峭；公开市场单日净回笼636亿元，资金利 率走势延续分化。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12月22日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了673亿元7天期逆回购操作，操 作利率1.40%，投标量673亿元，中标量673亿元。数据显示，当日1309亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单 日净回笼636亿元。 机构认为，2026年一季度央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，不排除春节前靠前落地的可能。但对于长端 和超长端，结构性供需担忧尚未缓解，交易盘和配置盘博弈情绪也还较重，短端宽松难以直接引导长端 利率下行。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.28%报111.98，10年期主力合约跌0.09%报107.98，5年期 主力合约跌0.06%报105.86，2年期主力合约跌0.02%报102.464。 银行间主要利率债表现分化，中长券走弱，短券偏暖。30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行 1.7BP报2.244%，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行1.7BP ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has an optimistic expectation for the liquidity situation, as indicated by the downward trends in certificate of deposit (CD) rates and interest rate swap (IRS) yields [2]. - The liquidity is expected to remain stable and slightly loose, with minor disturbances to the funds before the Spring Festival, as the MLF is likely to continue to be renewed in excess [5]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries a. Interest Rates - Bank - to - bank interest rates were differentiated. DR007 had an average of 1.44%, up 4BP from the previous week. R007 had an average of 1.51%, up from the previous week. DR001 and R001 had averages of 1.27% and 1.35% respectively. Exchange repurchase rates increased, with the average GC007 at 1.55%. CD rates and IRS yields declined. The 1 - year AAA CD yield was 1.64% at the end of last week, down from the previous week. The 1 - year FR007 IRS average was 1.52%, slightly down from the previous week [2][7]. b. Repurchase Transactions - Repurchase trading volume increased. The pledged repurchase trading volume was between 8.3 - 8.6 trillion yuan last week, and the average R001 trading volume was 76346 billion yuan, up 4094 billion yuan from the previous week. The outstanding repurchase balance was 12.9 trillion yuan at the end of last week, up from the previous week. In terms of institutions, the lending scale of large - scale banks and money market funds decreased, while the borrowing scale of funds and wealth management products increased, and the borrowing scale of securities firms decreased [3]. c. Bill and Exchange Rates - Bill rates decreased. On December 19th, the 6 - month national bill transfer quote was 0.89%, down from the previous week, indicating a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased to 7.04 last Friday, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. The US 1 - year Treasury yield may show a steeper curve in the future [4]. d. This Week's Focus - This week, there are 8775 billion yuan of open - market funds maturing, including 4575 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF. The LPR in December remained unchanged. US Q3 GDP will be announced on Tuesday, and China's November industrial enterprise profits will be announced on Saturday. Although the tax - payment period has passed, the increase in government bond supply this week may cause some disturbances to the liquidity. The MLF is expected to be renewed in excess, and the liquidity will remain stable and slightly loose [5].

——笔记哥《应对》 做短期的逻辑或预期，就是按照"买传闻，卖新闻"来操作，当预期起来时，要相信它，顺势而为；当新闻发生时，要怀疑它，逆势而动。 【笔记20251222— 现券被期货遛得像二哈（-股市小幅上涨-LPR降息落空+资金面均衡偏松=小上】 -------------------------- 又是现券被期货遛得像二哈的一天。这年头，甭管你是买A股、美股、日股还是印度股，是买黄金（she黄）、白银（mai银）、铂金（赌铂）还 是钯金（投机倒钯），只要你不买债，那么除了赚钱你将一无所获。 两个数据：一是，10Y国债利率在1.80%-1.85%区间玩了快两个月；二是，今年全球仅有29%的主动型基金战胜指数，创2019年以来新低。债农看 清未来出路：一是量化，二是固收+，三是......送外卖？ 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展673亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1309亿元逆回购与1200亿元国库现金定存到期，合计净回笼1836元。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 12. 22) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【C 国贸易所得 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2025/12/15 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DROO1 | 1.27 | -0.21 | DR007 | 1.47 | 1.75 | | | GC001 | 1.58 | 32.50 | GC007 | 1.54 | 3.50 | | 1192 | SHBOR 3M | 1.59 | 0.10 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | t | 1年期国债 | 1.39 | 0.02 | 5年期国债 | 1.62 | 0.83 | | al 2 | 10年期国债 | 1.84 | 0.26 | 10年期美债 | 4.19 | 5.00 | | | | | 回顾:上周央行公开市场开展了6685亿元逆回购操作,因上周有6638亿 | | | ...

Economic Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for 2026 to ensure a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - The focus has shifted from "stability while seeking progress" to "stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency," indicating a stronger emphasis on the quality and effectiveness of long-term growth [2][4] Economic Performance and Challenges - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, with a probability of meeting the annual target of around 5.0%, but the growth rate fell to 4.8% in the third quarter, highlighting weakening growth momentum and structural issues [4] - Key economic challenges include limited consumer spending power, insufficient innovation capacity, and pressures on the real economy from rising costs and financing constraints [4][6] Policy Implementation - The meeting calls for a combination of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth, with an emphasis on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [5][6] - Experts suggest maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% to signal continued fiscal expansion and stabilize social expectations [6] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The monetary policy will focus on structural tools, with recent adjustments including rate cuts and the introduction of new monetary policy frameworks [8][9] - The emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" indicates a shift towards addressing medium- to long-term structural issues rather than solely relying on traditional counter-cyclical measures [9] Domestic Demand and Risk Management - The meeting stresses the importance of domestic demand in driving economic growth and the need for innovative and high-quality development [11] - There is a focus on addressing key risks in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, with proposals for systemic policy measures to stabilize the housing market [14]