来源：大伟看楼市 当地时间周三午夜，美国政府时隔七年再度关门，这无疑给美国经济和金融市场带来了更多不确定性。 在华尔街分析师看来，政府关门可能会进一步巩固美联储10月降息预期。 他们表示，尤其是在美国政府关门僵局持续数天以上的情况下，美联储主席鲍威尔及其同僚可能会偏向 于采取宽松货币政策。 2025 年 10 月 LPR 下调 20-30BP 的预期，并非市场空穴来风，而是内外环境共同作用的必然结果。从 政策信号看，6-8 月间央行二季度例会、政治局会议等多次释放 "适度宽松货币政策" 信号，明确提出通 过降低融资成本激活经济活力。这一导向与四季度稳增长的现实需求高度契合 —— 三季度消费与固定 资产投资增速承压，亟需政策工具对冲经济下行压力。 外部约束的弱化更提供了操作空间。美联储开启降息周期的预期，使得中美利差收窄，人民币贬值压力 缓解，央行货币政策的独立性显著增强。与此同时，银行负债成本的持续下降奠定了降息基础：2024 年以来多次降准释放长期资金，叠加商业银行两度下调存款利率，银行综合负债成本显著降低，为 LPR 让利实体经济创造了条件。 值得注意的是，9 月 LPR "按兵不动" 实则为后续调整蓄力 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market experienced significant adjustments in September, influenced by strong stock market performance and institutional behaviors, particularly in long-term government bonds and capital bonds [1][2] - The bond market's performance diverged from the funding and economic fundamentals due to several factors, including a notable rise in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, leading to expectations of economic recovery [1][2] - Institutional funds, such as pension funds, shifted significantly from the bond market to the stock market, exacerbated by regulatory impacts on public funds [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the bond market's balance increased by 15.3 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, with government bonds contributing 10.3 trillion yuan and financial bonds 2.7 trillion yuan [1][4] - Bank self-operated bond investments surged, with an increase of 11.4 trillion yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year, indicating a strong shift towards bond investments amid low credit demand [1][4] - The report notes that the overall bond investment balance of major banks increased by 21.4% year-on-year, while small and medium-sized banks also saw a significant increase of 17.8% [1][4] Group 3 - The report suggests that conditions for further policy interest rate cuts may be emerging, with the central bank indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy while managing risks [1][2] - Recent economic data shows a decline in investment, consumption, and export growth rates, suggesting increasing downward pressure on the economy [1][6] - The report anticipates that the bond market's configuration value is prominent, with potential stabilization and a downward trend in bond yields, particularly for 10-year government bonds [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity environment in China has shifted from tight to loose, with the central bank conducting significant reverse repos to support the market, indicating a proactive stance on maintaining liquidity during the quarter-end period [1][12]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields reaching 1.83% and 2.14% respectively, before retreating as equity markets adjusted [1]. - The central bank's actions included a total of 900 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos and maintaining MLF operations, reflecting a clear intention to support liquidity [1][12]. Bond Yield Changes - As of September 26, 2025, the yields on various maturities showed mixed movements compared to September 19, with the 1-year yield decreasing by 0.75 basis points and the 30-year yield increasing by 1.74 basis points [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a slight decrease of 0.21 basis points, while the 30-year yield increased by 3 basis points over the same period [2][3]. Primary Market Activity - In the primary market, a total of 102 bonds were issued, amounting to 579.73 billion yuan, including 3 government bonds worth 247.53 billion yuan and 78 local government bonds totaling 196.05 billion yuan [7]. - Upcoming issuance plans for the week of September 28 to September 30 include 33 bonds, all of which are local government bonds, totaling 107.15 billion yuan [8]. International Market Context - The U.S. bond market saw yields rise, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 5 basis points to 4.18%, reflecting ongoing discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate adjustments [9][10]. - The divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the path of interest rate cuts indicates a complex outlook for global monetary policy, which may impact investor sentiment in the bond markets [9][10][11]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a supportive monetary policy stance to ensure liquidity and stabilize the financial market, while also addressing the challenges of domestic demand and low inflation [13][17]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining a stable yuan exchange rate and enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market was highlighted as a key focus area [1][17]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Tianfeng Securities and Caitong Securities noted that the current monetary policy reflects a balance between stability and flexibility, with expectations of controlled liquidity pressure in the upcoming month [18][19]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with suggestions for investors to adopt strategies focused on short-term bonds and high-quality credit instruments [19].

记者丨唐婧 编辑丨肖嘉 视频编辑 丨 柳润瑛 张迎 9月26日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会内容公布。此次会议作为判断未 来一段时间货币政策走向的重要风向标，释放出一系列关键政策信号。 本次例会还强调，把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系， 增强宏观政策协调配合，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，扩大内需、稳定预 期、激发活力，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。 对比第二季度例会内容来看， 本次例会删去了"加力实施增量政策"的相关表述，并强调要"保 持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性"，这也与7月30日中央政治局会议的要求一脉相承 。 彼时，粤开证券首席经济学家兼研究院院长罗志恒曾向记者解读，7月中央政治局会议更加强 调落实已出台的财政货币政策，做好政策接续，不搞大拐弯，让经营主体有稳定的政策预期 和市场预期，推动经济持续平稳运行；同时也要根据形势变化做出灵活调整，前瞻研判下半 年出口、房地产等情况，及时提前果断出台新的增量政策，加大逆周期调节力度。 在研判国内外经济金融形势时，会议认为当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减 弱，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy meeting indicates a shift towards maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, moving away from aggressive incremental policy implementations [1][6]. Economic Outlook - The meeting acknowledged a complex external environment with weakening global economic growth, increased trade barriers, and uncertain inflation trends, while noting that China's economy is progressing steadily despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [2][4]. Price Trends - The description of prices changed from "continuously low" to "low," reflecting recent positive signals in price data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization after eight months of decline, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month but showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4% [4][6]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The meeting emphasized the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments, focusing on the effective implementation of existing policies and enhancing the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies to support economic stability and reasonable price levels [5][13]. Structural Policy Tools - There is a new focus on using structural monetary policy tools to support small and micro enterprises and stabilize foreign trade, indicating a commitment to targeted financial support [10]. Long-term Interest Rates - The meeting continued to highlight the importance of monitoring long-term interest rates, with a consistent approach over the past seven quarters, reflecting ongoing concerns about the bond market dynamics [10][11]. Financial Market Stability - The meeting reiterated the importance of maintaining stability in the foreign exchange, capital, and real estate markets, with specific measures to enhance market resilience and prevent excessive fluctuations [13].

Group 1 - The LPR has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5% [1][3] - Commercial banks' net interest margin has dropped to a historical low of 1.42% as of Q2 2025, down 10 basis points from the previous quarter [3][9] - The traditional banking model of earning interest from loans and deposits is under unprecedented pressure due to declining loan interest rates and limited room for deposit rate cuts [5][9] Group 2 - The current deposit rates for large commercial banks have reached historical lows, with demand deposit rates at 0.05% and 1-year fixed deposit rates at 0.95% [5][9] - The LPR pricing mechanism is influenced by the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained stable at 1.40%, limiting the potential for LPR decreases [5][7] - The net interest margin has fallen below the non-performing loan rate, indicating a significant imbalance between bank earnings and risks [9][14] Group 3 - Non-interest income from intermediary business has shown signs of recovery, with a 6.97% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, indicating banks are seeking new profit growth points [9] - The collaboration between banks and insurance companies has become a key focus, with significant growth in insurance sales through bank channels [9][11] - The global monetary policy landscape is diverging, with some countries maintaining their interest rates while others follow the U.S. Federal Reserve's lead [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The LPR in China has remained unchanged for four consecutive months despite global interest rate cuts, primarily due to constraints from bank interest margins and deposit rates [1][22]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The 1-year and 5-year LPR rates have been stable at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively since May 2025, despite expectations for a decrease following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [1][22]. - The Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut since December 2024 on September 18, 2025, leading to speculation about similar actions in China [1][22]. Group 2: Bank Profitability Constraints - As of the second quarter of 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks in China has decreased to 1.42%, down 10 basis points from the previous quarter, limiting banks' profitability [4][6]. - The decline in loan interest rates, coupled with limited room for further reductions in deposit rates, has resulted in shrinking interest margins for banks [4][12]. Group 3: Deposit Rate Limitations - Major commercial banks have reduced their deposit rates significantly, with current account rates at 0.05% and one-year fixed deposit rates below 1% [8][9]. - The potential for further reductions in deposit rates is limited, as excessively low rates could lead to a loss of deposits to alternative financial products [12][13]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Considerations - The LPR's pricing mechanism is tied to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained unchanged at 1.40%, making it difficult for the LPR to decrease [15]. - China's monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, balancing internal economic conditions with external pressures, and any future adjustments to the LPR will be gradual [17][22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while there may be room for LPR adjustments, significant decreases are unlikely, with a focus on maintaining stability in growth, interest margins, and employment [20][22]. - The possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut is anticipated, which could lower banks' funding costs and create conditions for a potential LPR decrease [18][20].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that "care" in monetary policy does not necessarily equate to interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts do not always lead to increased debt issuance [5][17] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo to a "multiple price bidding" format is seen as a continuation of previous monetary policy strategies, with limited incremental information being conveyed [6][10] - The central bank's recent actions indicate a strong continuity in monetary policy, with the 14-day reverse repo being used primarily as a tool to manage liquidity around holidays rather than signaling a shift towards looser monetary policy [5][10][17] Group 2 - The 14-day reverse repo is expected to have limited actual impact on the bond market, serving mainly as a tool for addressing liquidity needs during specific periods such as holidays [10][14] - The report notes that the actual weighted bidding rate for the 14-day reverse repo is likely to decline, but its influence on the central funding rates and the bond market remains limited due to its non-mainstream status [14][16] - The central bank's liquidity management strategy has been focused on maintaining a balance between inflows and outflows, with the aim of stabilizing funding fluctuations [9][16] Group 3 - Despite the central bank's current supportive stance on interbank liquidity, it does not imply a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [17][19] - The report suggests that unless there are significant market fluctuations or rapid currency appreciation, the likelihood of further interest rate cuts within the year remains low [17][19] - The logic behind government bond trading is similar, with a low necessity to restart government bond purchases unless there is a significant downturn in the bond market [18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 22, the central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, the capital market continued to loosen, and the bond market recovered; the main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, and most convertible bonds declined; the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, emphasizing the importance of Sino - US communication and cooperation in promoting bilateral economic and trade relations [3] - The LPR quotes for two tenors in September remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.50%, which was in line with market expectations [3] - As of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond markets ranked second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserves ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China's financial risks were generally controllable, and the financial system operated steadily [4] - The CPC Party Group of the Ministry of Finance will coordinate debt replacement, financing platform reform, and accountability for illegal debt - raising [5] - The CPC Party Committee of the CSRC will coordinate the resolution of local financing platform and real - estate enterprise bond risks and support reasonable financing [5] 3.1.2 International News - Three Fed officials expressed concerns about inflation and believed that the space for further interest - rate cuts was limited this year, which may affect the Fed's interest - rate policy in the remaining two meetings [6] 3.1.3 Commodities - On September 22, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI October crude futures down 0.06% and Brent November crude futures down 0.16%; COMEX December gold futures rose 1.87%, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.77% [7][8] 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On September 22, the central bank conducted 2405 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 3000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net capital injection of 2605 billion yuan after 2800 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [10] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On September 22, the central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation, and the capital market continued to warm up. Major repurchase interest rates continued to decline, such as DR001 down 3.67bp to 1.428% and DR007 down 2.08bp to 1.489% [11] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On September 22, due to the central bank's restart of the 14 - day reverse repurchase and the loosening of the capital market, the bond market recovered. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250011 fell 0.75bp to 1.7875%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 fell 1.00bp to 1.9280% [14] - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the issuance scale, winning bid yields, and other aspects of multiple bonds such as 25 Agricultural Development Discount 08 (Increment 3) was provided [16] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On September 22, the transaction prices of 2 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "16 Longhu 04" down more than 12% and "H1 Yangcheng 01" up more than 1592% [16] - **Credit Bond Events**: There were announcements from companies such as China Aoyuan, Newmi Caiyuan Investment Group, and Kaisa Group regarding debt restructuring, warnings, and other matters [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On September 22, the three major A - share indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.22%, 0.67%, and 0.55% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed down, with the China Bond Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Bond Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Bond Convertible Bond Index down 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.40% respectively [18] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On September 22, Fushi Convertible Bond announced that it was about to meet the early redemption conditions [21] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On September 22, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, with the 2 - year US Treasury yield up 4bp to 3.61% and the 10 - year US Treasury yield up 1bp to 4.14%. The yield spreads of 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year US Treasury bonds narrowed [22][23] - **European Bond Market**: On September 22, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK [25] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes, including the top 10 gainers and losers, of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of the close on September 22 was provided [27]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase with reduced trading volume, while government bond futures rose across the board [1][2] - The technology sector showed strong performance, leading the market with significant gains in the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [2][3] Stock Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.22% to 3828.58 points, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.55% and the STAR Market gaining 3.38% [2] - Total trading volume in A-shares was 2.14 trillion yuan, down from 2.35 trillion yuan the previous day [2] - The technology sector remained the market's main focus, with notable declines in several weight-loss drug stocks [2] Bond Market Analysis - Government bond futures showed a "short weak long strong" pattern, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.22% and the 10-year contract by 0.20% [5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) resumed 14-day reverse repos, injecting 300 billion yuan into the market, contributing to a net injection of 260.5 billion yuan for the day [5][6] Commodity Market Analysis - Precious metals performed strongly, with silver rising by 3.81% and gold by 2.01%, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing [7] - The shipping index increased by 2.00%, while most basic metals saw gains, including tin and copper [7] Policy and Economic Outlook - The State Council's new policies aim to stabilize the capital market, with a focus on the technology sector, which now accounts for over 25% of A-share market capitalization [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced a plan for the steel industry, targeting an average annual growth of 4% over the next two years, emphasizing structural adjustments and high-quality development [9] Trading Hotspots - Key sectors to watch include rare metals, artificial intelligence, domestic chips, and consumer goods, driven by factors such as central bank policies and economic recovery [11][12] - The current market environment suggests a potential "dual bull" scenario for both stocks and bonds, with a focus on sectors benefiting from monetary easing and policy support [12]