信用利差周报 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 202 5 年 1 1 月 1 7 日—1 1 月 21 日 总第 586 期 2025 年第 44 期 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 宋懿达 ydsong.martin@ccxi.com 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 43 期】货币政 策报告延续宽松基调，香港百亿数字绿债 落地 2025-11-19 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 42 期】首单科 创可转债获批加强股债联动，债券收益率 走势分化 2025-11-11 【信用利差周报2025年第41期】证监会发 声提高资本市场制度包容性适应性，QFII 制度迎来优化 2025-11-04 【信用利差周报2025年第40期】央行宣布 重启国债买卖，富时罗素扩容人民币在岸 债券指数 2025-10-28 【信用利差周报2025年第39期】上交所明 确绿色金融四大发展方向，熊猫债累计发 行规模 ...

2026 年 1 月 27 日 与时舒卷——2026 年货币政策展望 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao2@gtht.com 报告导读： 摘要： 1. 中国人民银行的"三目标制"货币政策分析框架。从具体的操作工具来看，当前人民银行在 "量"的投放方面主要运用两类工具，分别是由质押贷款类、央行资产购买类和回笼类长期主动投放工 具，正逆回购、SLF、国库定存等短期主动投放工具，和外汇占款及财政存款（抵扣）等被动投放工具构 成的主要基础货币投放工具，以及通过改变货币乘数来影响基础货币需求的降准工具。通过配合实施这两 类操作工具进行"量"的投放从而影响对 7 天逆回购利率这一政策利率的价格调控，并间接传导至 MLF 利 率、LPR 利率和 M2 增速，最终实现上述三项长期货币政策目标。 2. 房地产市场调整叠加化债，信用融资需求内生性收缩。纵观全球主要经济体，在货币宽松与房地 产市场之间往往存在周期性循环，经济面临严重问题的阶段通过大幅宽松能够在短期内迅速刺激起地产泡 沫，泡沫刺破后的阵痛期又再次开启宽松周期意图稳 ...

记者丨 余纪昕 实习生黄玥 编辑丨方海平 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，中央经济工作会议指出，做好2026年经济工作，要"推动经济 实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"。在此背景下，2026年中国经济将如何精准发力？市场会 呈现怎样的走势和亮点？对于投资者而言有哪些机遇？ 以下为对话部分内容，经21世纪经济报道编辑。 《21世纪》： 你对2026年"适度宽松的货币政策"如何理解？ 连平： 在我们看来，企业与居民信贷需求增长放缓而银行流动性充裕的情况下，2026年大幅 度降准的必要性下降，流动性需求可通过更灵活的公开市场操作满足。必要时，可能会进行 0.25~0.5个百分点的小幅降准，于年初或二季度末概率较大，以补充银行中长期流动性、缓解 成本压力。 利率政策方面，当前国内利率水平已处历史低位，但仍有下行空间与调降必要性。在兼顾银行 息差压力下，2026年央行可能调降政策利率0.1~0.3个百分点，推动商业银行小幅下调LPR， 以降低社会融资成本，加快信贷修复，刺激消费与投资。 连平。资料图 2026年信贷增速预计温和回升，结构性特征突出。个人端房贷、消费贷需求边际改善但增量可 能有限；企业端将成为信贷核心支撑 ...

Economic Outlook for 2026 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for "qualitative effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth" in China's economy for 2026 [1] - The market is expected to present various trends and highlights, creating investment opportunities for investors [1] Monetary Policy and Credit Growth - Current domestic interest rates are at historical lows, with potential for further reduction; a small cut of 0.25-0.5 percentage points is likely in early 2026 [4] - Credit growth is expected to recover moderately, with structural characteristics; personal loans may see marginal improvement, while corporate loans will be the main support [4][5] - Total new credit is projected to be around 18 trillion yuan, with a slight increase in credit balance growth to 6.6% [5] Stock Market Trends - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are anticipated to continue a trend of oscillating upward, driven by corporate profit improvement and macro policy easing [7] - Policies to boost market confidence will include promoting the use of policy tools, guiding institutional investments, and optimizing listing conditions for tech companies [7] Bond Market Expectations - The bond market is expected to maintain a low-interest, high-volatility environment, with 10-year government bond yields projected between 1.6% and 1.9% [8] - Credit bond issuance is expected to grow steadily, particularly in short-duration high-grade credit bonds, with yields anticipated between 2.0% and 2.5% [8] Investment Opportunities in Emerging Industries - Future technology innovation policies will focus on breakthroughs in key areas such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and biomanufacturing [9] - The semiconductor sector is expected to see significant growth driven by AI, while new energy and quantum technology are also highlighted as areas of potential investment [9] Global Economic Trends - The global economic landscape is transitioning from "high volatility" to "new equilibrium," with significant geopolitical and economic challenges ahead [10] - The U.S. stock market is expected to enter a phase of "high valuation, weak growth, and strong differentiation," with potential risks in AI sector valuations [10] Currency and Commodity Outlook - The RMB is likely to appreciate in a dual-directional fluctuation, supported by various domestic economic factors [11] - Gold prices are expected to experience "high-level fluctuations" with a target range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, while silver may see more volatility due to its industrial properties [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in the bond market has intensified following the central bank's press conference, with the LPR remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months, leading to new dynamics in market sentiment and bond yields [3][7]. Group 1: Bond Market Trends - Long-term bond yields have experienced a rare rebound after a prolonged decline, with the 30-year government bond yield dropping by 2.75 basis points and 1.6 basis points, reaching 2.261% [5][6]. - However, this upward trend was not sustained, as bond futures saw a collective decline on January 22, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.07% to 112.170 [6][7]. - The primary market issuance has been a significant factor influencing the bond market's rebound, with a recent issuance of 160 billion yuan in 7-year fixed-rate bonds seeing a subscription multiple of 5.91 times [6][7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The latest LPR remains at 3.0% for the 1-year and 3.5% for the 5-year, reflecting a stable monetary policy environment, with no immediate need for rate cuts or reductions [7][8]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining liquidity in the banking system is evident, with a net injection of 309 billion yuan through reverse repos on January 22 [8]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Dynamics - There is a growing interest in foreign investment in Chinese government bonds, particularly as global markets face uncertainty, positioning Chinese bonds as a potential safe haven [9][10]. - As of November 2025, foreign institutions held 3.6 trillion yuan in Chinese bonds, with government bonds making up 56.2% of this total [10][11]. - Despite fluctuations in foreign holdings due to various market factors, the long-term trend suggests that the opening of the bond market will encourage steady foreign investment in Chinese bonds [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5%, and the full - year growth target of 5% was achieved, meeting market expectations. The market will discuss the economic growth expectations for 2026 and the Two Sessions' target settings. For the bond market, the central bank's attitude is the key factor in 2026, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - The central bank's resumption of bond - buying may be a long - term consideration, and the continuity of bond - buying is high. In 2026, the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market needs attention, with the core being demand. The bond market still needs to consider the impacts of "imbalance between supply and demand, expectations of rising prices, and re - balancing of asset allocation due to capital diversion" [28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly - on - quarterly growth of 4.5%, lower than the previous quarter's 4.8% and the same period last year's 5.4% [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in December 2025 was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous month but lower than 52.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The monthly value of social financing scale in December 2025 was 2207.5 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month and 2853.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - Various monetary indicators such as M0, M1, M2, and new RMB loans also showed different trends in December 2025 compared with the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - CPI in December 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 0.8%, up from - 0.3% in the previous month and 0.1% in the same period last year; PPI was - 1.9%, up from - 2.3% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment completion in December 2025 was - 3.8%, down from - 0.5% in the previous month and 3.2% in the same period last year [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 was 3.7%, down from 4.5% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1]. - The year - on - year growth of export and import amounts in December 2025 was 6.60% and 5.70% respectively, down from 8.20% and 7.40% in the previous month and 10.67% and 0.84% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The National Development and Reform Commission is planning major high - tech projects for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, formulating an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, and considering setting up a national - level merger and acquisition fund. It will also promote the expansion and quality improvement of the service industry [2]. - The LPR in January 2026 remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% [2]. - Shanghai introduced 18 measures to enhance the influence of non - ferrous metal commodities and global pricing, including supporting settlement through the Commodity Clearing Link and opening up futures and options varieties [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts [3]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges for international copper futures contracts [4]. - On January 20, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 32 had negative basis, with significant differences in basis among different varieties [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - On the morning of January 21, New York gold futures exceeded $4780 per ounce, and domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with some brands' pure gold prices exceeding 1450 yuan per gram [5]. - "Investment copper bars" have become popular recently, with a 1000 - gram copper bar costing 180 - 288 yuan in Shenzhen Shuibei Market [5]. - The Polish central bank approved a plan to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its gold reserves to 700 tons [5]. - On January 19, the inventories of lead, tin, zinc, and copper in the London Metal Exchange reached new highs, while the inventories of cobalt and aluminum reached new lows [6]. - As of January 20, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 0.37%, or 4.01 tons, to 1081.66 tons [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, Shanxi produced 65 billion tons of coal, with an output of over 13 billion tons in 2025, an increase of 19 billion tons compared with the 13th Five - Year Plan [8]. - The first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived in China on January 17, enhancing global iron ore supply [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 85 yuan per ton from January 20, 24:00, due to rising international oil prices [9]. - The US government obtained 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela and sold part of it on the open market [9]. - Venezuela officially launched the export of liquefied petroleum gas [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Brazil's corn and soybean exports in January 2026 are expected to be 3.45 million tons and 3.79 million tons respectively, higher than the previous week's forecasts, while soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.82 million tons, the same as the previous week [10]. - As of January 15, the EU's soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 season were 11.8 million tons, slightly lower than the same period last year [10]. - The US export inspection volumes of soybeans, wheat, and corn were 1,336,684 tons, 392,611 tons, and 1,483,622 tons respectively [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 20, the central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan due to 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - A package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination was introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment and loan interest - subsidy policies for small and medium - sized enterprises [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle, expanding domestic demand, and promoting high - tech projects [13]. - The Ministry of Finance said that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, debt scale, and expenditure will remain at necessary levels, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued [14]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development introduced measures to support urban renewal [15]. - The preferential tax policies for community - based family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping were extended from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [16]. - The latest LPR remained unchanged for the 8th consecutive month since May 2025, and experts believe that the stable macro - economy is the main reason [17]. - Beijing's 2026 construction land supply plan was announced, with specific land allocations for commercial and affordable housing and a focus on urban renewal [18]. - Guangzhou is promoting legislation for the renewal of state - owned land housing, with a planned fixed - asset investment of 120 billion yuan for urban village renovation in 2026 [18]. - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns led to a global bond market sell - off, with significant fluctuations in Japanese and US bond yields [18]. - The Japanese Finance Minister tried to calm the bond market, emphasizing the responsibility and sustainability of fiscal policies [18]. - All Japanese central bank observers predict that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged on Friday, and the government may intervene in the foreign exchange market if the yen depreciates [19]. - There were several bond - related events, including payment due dates and corporate management changes [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed positive trends, with falling yields on spot bonds and rising prices of bond futures. The money market was generally stable, but the DR001 rate increased due to the tax period [20]. - The exchange - traded bond market had different performances among different bond types, with some bonds rising and some falling [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index both declined, with significant differences in individual bond performances [22]. - Most money market interest rates and Shibor short - term rates increased [22]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate also showed upward trends [23]. - The winning bid yields and multiples of financial bonds issued by the Agricultural Development Bank and the National Development and Reform Commission were announced [23][24]. - European and US bond yields generally increased [24][25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 33 basis points to 6.9603 at 16:30, and the central parity rate rose 45 basis points to 7.0006 [26]. - At the New York close, the US dollar index fell 0.50% to 98.55, and most non - US currencies rose [26]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's attitude is crucial for the 2026 bond market, and a total interest - rate cut is expected in Q2 [27]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Fixed - Income believes that the central bank's bond - buying is likely to be continuous, and in 2026, attention should be paid to the imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market, with the interest rate level expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [28]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - On Tuesday, the A - share market adjusted, with a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, and the trading volume increased [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust, with technology stocks leading the decline and real - estate stocks rising. Southbound funds had a net purchase of nearly HK$3.7 billion [31]. - As of January 20, over 500 A - share companies had disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, with about 200 expecting growth and over 100 expecting a net profit increase of over 100%. However, some sectors such as photovoltaic, liquor, and pig farming faced performance pressure [31]. 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 21, 230 bonds will be listed, 122 bonds will be issued, 82 bonds will be settled, and 207 bonds will pay principal and interest [29].

Core Viewpoint - The market is perceived as the true intelligence, and it is essential to follow its direction rather than attempt to predict outcomes independently [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market shows signs of warming, with long-term bonds being particularly attractive. The concentration of borrowing for 30-year bonds reached 30%, and the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds is at 50 basis points, a level not seen since the introduction of 30-year bond futures [6]. - The interbank funding market is balanced and slightly loose, with a significant drop in long bond yields. The central bank conducted a 3.24 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3.586 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 346 million yuan [3]. - The stock market is experiencing fluctuations, with no unexpected information from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance. The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.8325% and fluctuated, reaching a low of 1.815% before recovering to 1.825% [5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Trading Data - The weighted average rates for various interbank funding instruments are as follows: RO1 at 1.42%, R007 at 1.54%, R014 at 1.63%, and R1M at 1.63%. The trading volume for RO1 was approximately 78.17 billion yuan, while R007 had a volume of about 7.44 billion yuan [4]. - The financing balance in the stock market has decreased, indicating a cooling effect on the market. The dynamics between large-cap and small-cap stocks are shifting, with large-cap stocks struggling to outperform small-cap stocks [9].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and three other departments announced a special guarantee plan for private investment with a total quota of 500 billion yuan, to be implemented over two years [1] - The plan supports loans for small and micro enterprises for various purposes, including equipment and raw material purchases, technological upgrades, and business operations [1] - The plan also covers long-term loans for sectors such as catering, health, elderly care, childcare, home services, culture, entertainment, tourism, sports, green initiatives, digital services, and retail [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and three other departments released a notice to optimize the fiscal interest subsidy policy for equipment update loans, expanding the support scope and areas [2] - The notice states that for businesses undertaking equipment updates, the central government will subsidize 1.5% of the principal on fixed asset loans for equipment update projects, with a maximum subsidy period of two years [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for eight consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% [3] - These LPR rates will remain effective until the next announcement [3]

1月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，1年期LPR报3.0%，5年期以上LPR报 3.5%，均与上月持平。至此，LPR已自2025年6月起连续8个月保持稳定。东方金诚王青团队认为，这一 结果符合预期，短期内货币政策将以观察为主，但二季度伴随外部环境变化，政策性降息并引导LPR下 调的可能性显著增加。 对于1月LPR报价保持不变的原因，东方金诚王青团队分析认为主要有两方面直接因素。首先，政策利 率的稳定是核心前提。年初以来，央行7天期逆回购利率保持平稳，这直接决定了LPR报价的定价基础 未发生改变。其次，商业银行的定价动力不足。尽管市场利率如1年期AAA级银行同业存单到期收益率 保持稳定，银行在货币市场的融资成本变化不大，但在当前商业银行净息差处于历史最低点的背景下， 报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 从更深层次来看，LPR的持续稳定反映了2025年我国宏观经济展现出的较强韧性。出口持续偏强、以高 技术制造业为代表的新质生产力快速发展，成功支撑经济顶住外部波动压力，顺利完成全年增长目标。 这使得下半年货币政策具备了较强的定力，无需通过频繁调整LPR来调节总需求。 尽管2025年四季度受 ...

机构认为，鉴于LPR所锚定的七天期逆回购利率继续维持在1.40%不变，且央行开年通过结构性工具实 施的"定向降息"并未触及政策利率本身，1年期和5年期LPR本月均连续第八个月持稳。结构性降息落地 后，政策面暂无更多预期，债市处于驻足盘整阶段，可关注后续股市动向、更多经济数据及后续新债供 给情况。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.52%报111.49，10年期主力合约涨0.13%报108.18，5年期 主力合约涨0.09%报105.875，2年期主力合约涨0.05%报102.444。 银行间主要利率债收益率小幅下行，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.95BP报1.96%，10年期国 债"25附息国债16"收益率下行1.35BP报1.827%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.95BP报 2.295%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.64%，报518.29点，成交金额851.9亿元。天箭转债、银邦转债、盟升转债、广 联转债、赛龙转债跌幅居前，分别跌17.29%、14.00%、11.85%、9.61%、9.31%。嘉美转债、东时转 债、红墙转债、微芯转债、金诚转债涨幅居 ...