每经AI快讯，10月6日，法国和德国10年期国债收益率差升至87个基点以上。此前法国总理勒科尔尼向 马克龙递交辞呈。 ...

Core Insights - The yield spread between 10-year U.S. Treasuries and German bonds has recently narrowed, indicating changing market dynamics [1] - The yield curves for both U.S. and German bonds from 2-year to 10-year have steepened, reflecting differing economic outlooks [1] Group 1: U.S. Market Dynamics - The steepening of the yield curve in the U.S. is largely driven by market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: German Market Dynamics - In Germany, the yield curve has steepened significantly due to increasing confidence in the economic outlook after years of stagnation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has not yet emerged from an independent market and is continuously suppressed by market risk appetite, with a significant "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds [94]. - The next - stage monetary policy will continue the moderately loose tone but focus more on structural tools, and the scope for overall easing may be limited. The interest rate center lacks further downward momentum, and the rebound power of treasury bond futures is insufficient. The liquidity factor is expected to dominate the short - term bond market trading logic [94]. - It is expected that the treasury bond futures market will show a volatile and bearish pattern, and there are currently no trend - based long - buying opportunities [94]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - The main contracts of treasury bond futures all declined this week. The TL (30 - year) main contract fell 1.28%, the T (10 - year) main contract fell 0.59%, the TF (5 - year) main contract fell 0.27%, and the TS (2 - year) main contract fell 0.03% [11][15][21]. - The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all increased, while the open interest of the TS, T, TF, and TL main contracts all decreased [29]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Policy and regulatory news: The five - department joint notice expanded the withdrawal conditions for personal pensions; the central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan; the Financial Regulatory Administration plans to introduce the "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" [7]. - Domestic economic data: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.63% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate remained flat year - on - year. In July, RMB loans decreased by 5 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase in the reduction of 31 billion yuan; the social financing increment in July was 116 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 38.93 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in July was 5.6%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points [8]. - Overseas economic data: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest since May 2022. The US initial jobless claims last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on the issue of interest rate cuts [8]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - The yield spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds narrowed slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds widened slightly [42]. - The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures narrowed [46]. - The inter - term spread of the 10 - year contract narrowed, and the inter - term spread of the 30 - year contract widened slightly. The inter - term spread of the 2 - year contract fluctuated, and the inter - term spread of the 5 - year contract widened [50][57]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased significantly [63]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - The overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell back to around 1.47% and fluctuated [67]. - The yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened across the board. The yields of 1 - 7 - year bonds increased by 2 - 5bp, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds increased by 5bp and 6bp to 1.78% and 2.03% respectively [67]. - The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds widened, and the spread between 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [71]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 219.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations in the open market this week, with 93.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 126.52 billion yuan [74]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 196.8063 billion yuan, the total repayment was 148.1147 billion yuan, and the net financing was 48.6917 billion yuan [77]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1321, with a cumulative depreciation of 50 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB narrowed [82]. - The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond strengthened slightly, and the VIX index rose slightly [87]. - The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond in China increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [90]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic**: In July, the economic recovery slowed down, with marginal weakening on both the supply and demand sides. With the introduction of new policies in August, future economic data may pick up [93]. - **Overseas**: The US economic data has fluctuated recently, and the Fed is divided on the issue of interest rate cuts. The market is closely watching the speech of the Fed Chairman at the Jackson Hole meeting [93]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the treasury bond futures market will show a volatile and bearish pattern, and there are currently no trend - based long - buying opportunities [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the pace of economic recovery slowed, with marginal weakening on both the supply and demand sides. New policies in August may drive future economic data to rebound. The bond market currently lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect may intensify, and in the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of the widening term spread brought about by the steepening of the curve [93][94] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - This week, the Treasury bond futures contracts of all maturities declined. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 1.54%, 0.32%, 0.17%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while the open interest of the TS, T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased [12][29] 2. News Review and Analysis - Policy: The three - department jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the nine - department including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities" [7] - Domestic economic data: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.63% year - on - year. The unemployment rate remained the same year - on - year. In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase in the reduction of 310 billion yuan; the social financing increment in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 389.3 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in July was 5.6%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points [8] - Overseas economic data: In the US, the CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%. The PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. The number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than expected. The US continued to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [9] - Exchange rate: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1371, with a cumulative depreciation of 34 basis points this week [9] - Capital situation: This week, the central bank conducted 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48% [9] 3. Chart Analysis - Spread changes: The yield spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year bonds and that between the 10 - year and 1 - year bonds slightly widened. The spread between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts and that between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed. The inter - period spread of the 10 - year contract fluctuated, and that of the 30 - year contract slightly widened. The inter - period spread of the 2 - year contract fluctuated, and that of the 5 - year contract narrowed [42][46][50] - Treasury bond futures main contract position changes: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract slightly increased [63] - Interest rate changes: The Shibor rates of overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month terms all increased. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48%. The yields of Treasury bond cash bonds weakened across the board, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 1 - 5bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y rising by about 5bp and 6bp to 1.74% and 1.99% respectively. The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed, and that of 30 - year Treasury bonds slightly narrowed [67][71] - Central bank open - market operations: This week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases totaled 711.8 billion yuan, with 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48% [74] - Bond issuance and maturity: This week, the bond issuance was 1.75934 trillion yuan, and the total repayment was 1.559795 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 201.345 billion yuan [77] - Market sentiment: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1371, with a cumulative depreciation of 34 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond strengthened slightly, and the VIX index decreased slightly. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond in China increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [82][87][90] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestically, the economic recovery in July slowed down, but new policies in August may drive future economic data to rebound. Overseas, the sharp rise in the US PPI in July has frustrated the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Currently, the bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect may intensify. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of the widening term spread brought about by the steepening of the curve [93][94]

Core Insights - The yield spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds has decreased to 87 basis points, marking the lowest level since 2015 [1] Group 1 - The narrowing yield spread indicates a potential increase in investor confidence in Italian bonds compared to German bonds [1] - This trend may reflect improving economic conditions in Italy or a shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds has decreased to 87 basis points, marking the lowest level since 2015 [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield spread indicates a potential increase in investor confidence in Italian bonds compared to German bonds [1] - This reduction in yield spread may reflect improving economic conditions in Italy or a shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets [1] - The current yield spread could influence future investment strategies and decisions within the European bond market [1]

Group 1 - The yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has widened to 74 basis points, marking the largest increase since April of this year [1]

Group 1 - The yield spread between German and Italian 10-year government bonds has reached its widest level in three weeks, currently at 99.8 basis points [1] - The increase in the yield spread indicates growing investor concerns regarding Italy's fiscal stability compared to Germany [1] - The Italian 10-year government bond yield is a critical indicator for assessing the country's borrowing costs and overall economic health [1]

Group 1 - The yield spread between Germany's 2-year and 10-year government bonds has narrowed to levels seen on April 4, reaching 68.20 basis points, with the latest figure at 70.20 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield spread between Japan's 10-year and 30-year government bonds has widened to a record level, indicating strong demand from investors for selling longer-term bonds following a recent operation by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1 - The yield spread reached a record high, reflecting significant market movements [1] - The Bank of Japan's recent operation has influenced investor behavior, leading to increased selling of long-term bonds [1]