1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the sentiment in the bond market fluctuates greatly, facing many negative factors, but the inter - year capital market is expected to remain loose to support the long - end. It is advisable to focus on the strategy of shorting the long - end and going long on the short - end. In the long - run, as the bond market has been continuously adjusted, the current interest rate has returned to a reasonable price. There is room for easing next year, and the long - end futures varieties have significant room for a supplementary rise [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: Rumors of a reserve requirement ratio cut spread but were quickly digested. The inter - year funds rose slightly, and the bond market fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds changed within a narrow range, with the increase of long - end active bonds within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.837%, up 0.2bp [9]. - **Funds Market**: The inter - bank funds market was stable, while the non - bank inter - year funds increased. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds sentiment index was stable, and the pressure eased in the afternoon. The overnight and 7 - day funds rates in the inter - bank deposit market dropped slightly, the 14 - day inter - year rate rose 2bp to 1.62%, and the non - bank funds increased. The central bank is likely to provide support, and the medium - and long - term funds are stable [10]. 3.2 Industry News - **Credit Repair Policy**: The central bank announced a one - time credit repair policy for personal overdue information from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2025, with a single - amount not exceeding 10,000 yuan. It is "application - free" [13]. - **Vanke's Debt**: Vanke's 2 - billion - yuan bond extension plan was rejected again, but it extended the grace period. A subsidiary's 2.62 - billion - yuan insurance debt investment plan was extended for one year [13][14]. - **National Meeting**: Premier Li Qiang chaired a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and emphasized major projects [14]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The issuance of local government bonds in 2025 exceeded 10 trillion yuan, with 500 billion yuan of the debt balance limit in the fourth quarter supporting debt resolution and investment [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, spreads, and trends of treasury bond futures contracts are presented, sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Information on inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR, etc., is provided, with data from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [23][26][31] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves is given, with data from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [35][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the 10-year main contract showing a minor increase of 0.03% while overall yields on major interbank bonds are rising by approximately 1 basis point [1] - The central bank has increased its net reverse repurchase operations, leading to a positive sentiment in the short-term funding market, despite upcoming tax payments. Future MLF operations are expected to stabilize funding expectations [1] - Major banks have lowered deposit rates and the May LPR, which initially caused the 10-year bond yield to drop to 1.65% before rebounding. This suggests that the bond market may have anticipated these changes, leading to profit-taking by some institutions [1] Group 2 - The recent trading activity of the government bond ETF (511520) has been robust, with transaction amounts exceeding 100 billion for three consecutive days, and over 14 billion on the last day. This ETF is the largest in the market and the only long-duration government bond ETF available [1] - The ETF has a duration of approximately 7.5 years and offers good liquidity, making it suitable for clients looking to extend duration easily. It serves as an effective tool for both trading and allocation in the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of deposit rate cuts has been implemented, with major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks lowering their deposit rates, marking the seventh reduction since September 2022 and the first in seven months since October of the previous year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Adjustments - Major state-owned banks have reduced the interest rates for demand deposits to 0.05%, while the one-year fixed deposit rate has fallen below 1% [1][4]. - The three-month, six-month, one-year, and two-year fixed deposit rates have been lowered by 15 basis points (BP) to 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05% respectively, while the three-year and five-year rates have been reduced by 25 BP to 1.25% and 1.3% respectively [1][2]. Impact on Depositors - For a three-year fixed deposit of 200,000 yuan, the interest difference before and after the adjustment is 1,500 yuan, while for 1,000,000 yuan, the difference is 7,500 yuan [2]. Follow-up Actions by Other Banks - Joint-stock banks, such as China Merchants Bank, are expected to follow suit with similar adjustments, with most likely to implement changes in the near term [3]. - The adjustments in deposit rates are anticipated to be uniform across banks, with a focus on controlling liability costs through adjustments to the upper limits of interest rates [3]. Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - The recent deposit rate cuts were anticipated in the market, following the central bank's announcement of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reductions [4]. - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) indicates a decline, with the five-year LPR at 3.5% and the one-year LPR at 3%, both down by 10 BP [4]. - Analysts predict that the average loan interest rate will drop to a historical low of 3.75% by the first quarter of 2025, with commercial banks' net interest margins also expected to decrease [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the treasury bond futures market on May 19, 2025, including price changes, factor analysis, and market trends, as well as related news and data in the macro and industry aspects [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On May 19, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.37%, 0.13%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [1]. - The treasury bond futures index was - 0.04. The volume - price factor was bearish, while the fundamental factor was bullish. The cumulative returns of the strategy without leverage were 0.08% in the past 20 days, - 0.47% in the past 60 days, 0.26% in the past 120 days, and 1.39% in the past 240 days [1]. - In the equity market, the market oscillated and adjusted throughout the day, with the three major indexes showing different trends. The small - cap and large - cap indexes diverged, and the micro - cap stock index rose more than 2% to a new high [1]. 3.2 Capital Situation - Overnight shibor was reported at 1.5370%, down 11.7bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was reported at 1.5620%, up 1.7bp; 14 - day shibor was reported at 1.6540%, up 5.3bp; 1 - month shibor was reported at 1.6240%, down 0.1bp [2]. - In the inter - bank pledged repurchase market, the total turnover was 2.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3.35%. Overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day, and 1 - month rates showed different changes compared with the previous trading day [4]. 3.3 Futures Market Data | Contract | Open Price | High Price | Low Price | Close Price | Change (%) | Amplitude (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 (2 - year) | 102.380 | 102.414 | 102.336 | 102.384 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 48335 | 87939 | | TF2506 (5 - year) | 105.715 | 105.790 | 105.660 | 105.735 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 42586 | 66890 | | T2506 (10 - year) | 108.510 | 108.605 | 108.450 | 108.605 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 57954 | 82926 | | TL2506 (30 - year) | 118.980 | 119.360 | 118.880 | 119.320 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 43076 | 47914 | The IRR of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year active CTD bonds were 1.79%, 1.82%, 3.02%, and 2.44% respectively, and the current R007 was about 1.6251% [3]. 3.4 Yield Curve - The treasury bond yield curve showed different trends: the 2Y - term decreased by 0.51BP to 1.47%; the 5Y - term decreased by 1.02BP to 1.57%; the 10Y - term increased by 0.97BP to 1.69%; the 30Y - term decreased by 1.50BP to 1.86% [4]. - The credit bond yield curve also showed different trends: for AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes, the 6M - term decreased by 4.00BP to 1.68%; the 1Y - term decreased by 6.00BP to 1.72%; the 3Y - term increased by 4.00BP to 1.80%; the 5Y - term decreased by 2.50BP to 2.07% [4]. 3.5 Net Long - Position Changes by Institution Type The net long - position of private funds increased by 5.05%, foreign capital and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 6.01% [6]. 3.6 Macro and Industry News - The central bank released a briefing on overseas institutions' investment in the inter - bank bond market in April 2025. As of the end of April 2025, overseas institutions held 4.44 trillion yuan of inter - bank market bonds, accounting for about 2.7% of the total custody volume of the inter - bank bond market [8]. - The Ministry of Finance announced that it would conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to support treasury bond market - making, improve secondary - market liquidity, and improve the treasury bond yield curve reflecting market supply and demand [8]. - On May 19, the central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous level [9]. 3.7 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral trend [10].