昨日大行新一轮存款利率和5月LPR均调降，早盘10年国债收益率曾下行至1.65%，随后震荡上行，这可 能是因为债市已经提前抢跑该消息，并且在落地后部分机构选择止盈。另外昨日股市继续上涨，对债市 也有一定压制。短期来看，资金面均衡偏宽松以及存款利率调降等措施仍能继续支撑债市，经过昨日调 整后收益率有望震荡下行。另外，需要关注本月央行买债情况，如果央行重启买债将会点燃债市情绪， 届时收益率仍有望向1.6%突破。 政金债券ETF（511520）近期成交活跃，连续3日成交金额破百亿，昨日成交超140亿，目前总规模超 460亿，为全市场规模最大的债券ETF，同时也是全市场唯一一只长久期政金债ETF，久期7.5年左右， 流动性好，适合客户场内一键加久期，可作为债券市场波段交易和配置的好工具。 5月20日，国债期货多数微幅下滑，但10年期主力合约微涨0.03%。银行间主要利率债收益率整体上 行，幅度多在1个bp左右。央行公开市场逆回购加力净投放，短期资金面情绪向好，虽然本月缴税在 即，但后续还将有MLF续做等因素驰援，机构对后续资金面预期亦较为稳定。 相关产品：政金债券ETF（511520）、富国中债7-10年政策性金融债 ...

本文字数：1424，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025.05. 20 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 存最高仅为1.3%，即按照挂牌利率不上浮，继续保持倒挂状态。 此次存款利率调整已在市场预期之内。此前央行行长潘功胜在5月7日国新办新闻发布会上宣布降准 降息，同时提到央行将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相应下调存款利率。 20日出炉的新一期LPR（贷款市场报价利率）显示，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，上月为3.6%；1年期 LPR为3%，上月为3.1%，均下行10BP，与此前逆回购利率调整幅度一致。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，截至2025年一季度，一般贷款加权平均利率下行至3.75%的历史 低位，商业银行净息差也回落至1.43%的低点。"本轮LPR降息落地后贷款利率料将进一步下行；本 轮存款降息和LPR调降同步落地，是在利率自律机制影响下，商业银行主动稳定息差的举措。"明明 说。 从调整范围和幅度来看，此次大行活期存款利率降幅与去年10月调整时降幅一致，3年期以下定期存 款利率降幅较上次收窄10个基点，3年期及5年期品种利率降幅与上次一致，均为25BP。有行业人 士对第一财经表示，定期存款仍是压降负债成本的重要方向。以3 ...

2025 年 05 月 20 日 国债期货：关注 LPR 调降，曲线结构延续走平 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 林致远 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021471 | linzhiyuan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 5 月 19 日，国债期货收盘全线收涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.37%，10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%，5 年期 主力合约涨 0.04%，2 年期主力合约涨 0.02%。 国债期货指数为-0.04。量价因子看空，基本面因子看多。无杠杆下，策略近 20 日累加收益为 0.08%，近 60 日累加收益为-0.47%，近 120 日累加收益为 0.26%，近 240 日累加收益为 1.39%。 权益市场方面，市场全天震荡调整，三大指数涨跌不一。大小指数走势分化，微盘股指数涨超 2%再创 新高。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.00%，深成指跌 0.08%，创业板指跌 0.33%。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，个 股涨多跌少，全市场超 3500 只个股上涨，逾百股涨超 9%。高位股继续获资金追捧，中毅达等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the difference between net rental yield and mortgage rates in first-tier cities ranges from 69 to 146 basis points, with smaller differences in second and third-tier cities. A further decline in mortgage rates is expected to help stabilize total demand for new and second-hand housing [1][5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Since September 24, the real estate market has seen improvements due to policy easing, including adjustments to down payment ratios and mortgage rates, which have positively influenced resident expectations and market fundamentals [2]. - The current market is characterized by strong supply and demand in high-tier cities, while lower-tier cities are experiencing weakened demand [2]. Group 2: Mortgage Rate Decline Pathways - Potential pathways for mortgage rate declines include lowering the housing provident fund rate to create space for commercial loan rate reductions and timely adjustments to the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3][4]. - The current first-time home loan interest rate in 50 cities has reached a low of 3.06%, with a subsequent slight rebound to 3.11%, influenced by the housing provident fund rate [3]. Group 3: Impact of Mortgage Rate Decline on Housing Demand - Historical data suggests that a narrowing gap between net rental yield and mortgage rates can stabilize total housing demand. For instance, during the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, a similar trend was observed where rental yields increased as mortgage rates decreased [4][5]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Relationship - A decline in mortgage rates is expected to reduce "trend trading" listings, thereby improving the supply-demand relationship and providing investors with clearer expectations regarding the stabilization of housing prices [7]. - The structure of listings can be categorized into forced sales due to liquidity issues and those based on future price expectations, with the latter likely decreasing as mortgage rates fall [7]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The company maintains a dual investment strategy focusing on both relative and absolute perspectives in the real estate sector. Investors are encouraged to seek high-growth stocks while balancing valuations [8]. - Attention is drawn to companies with a history of stable cash flow generation and those that may benefit from valuation recovery as debt repayment pressures ease [8].