Report Overview - **Report Title**: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - **Report Date**: February 8, 2026 - **Author**: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views LPG - Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, but the fundamental drivers are downward. The market will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term, and the medium - to long - term drivers are downward [3]. Propylene - The fundamentals remain tight, but the upward driving force is weakening. The spot price of propylene is expected to fluctuate within a range before the holiday [4]. Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot and basis/USD cost trends are firm, domestic civil prices are slightly adjusted, and ether - after prices have weakened significantly. International propane prices have fluctuated, and freight rates remain high [7]. Supply - Total domestic LPG commodity volume is 549,000 tons (+0.9%), civil gas is 225,000 tons (-2.8%), and ether - after is 180,000 tons (+6.1%). US, Canadian, and Middle Eastern LPG shipments have different trends, and China's propane supply has increased [33][67][78]. Demand & Inventory - PDH operating rate has slightly increased, and MTBE operating rate has remained flat. LPG refinery inventory is at a neutral level, civil gas is de - stocking, ether - after is accumulating inventory, and terminal inventory is mainly accumulating [79]. Balance Sheet - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong; in the second quarter, supply will return to normal, and the tight supply - demand pattern is expected to ease [114]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Propane buying support is strong, PDH costs have further increased, and propylene prices have adjusted narrowly. The upstream and downstream prices of the propylene industry chain have changed, and the import window remains closed [115][117]. Balance Sheet - Supply has increased and demand has decreased this week. In January and February, the supply - demand was in a tight balance, and it is expected to be looser in March [135][157]. Supply - Weekly propylene output is 1.17 million tons (+19,000), and the operating rate is 72% (+1.2%). Refinery, cracking, PDH, and MTO operating rates have different changes [161][163]. Demand - The operating rates of propylene downstream products such as PP, PP powder, PO, acrylonitrile, etc. have changed, and the profits of some products have been compressed [201]. Downstream Inventory - PP and related powder inventories, as well as other downstream inventories such as acrylonitrile and phenol, have different changes [284].

Supply and Demand Data - Domestic operating rate is 76.19% (+0.45%), non-integrated operating rate is 68.26% (+0.61%), and international operating rate is 61.81% (+0.79%) [1] - MTO operating rate is 87.3% (+0.83%), with traditional downstream operating rates slightly increasing [1] - As of December 4, port inventory decreased by 79,700 tons [1] Market Insights - Methanol futures are experiencing low-level narrow fluctuations, with ongoing inventory exchange strategies and a continuous narrowing of price differentials throughout the month [1] - Domestic methanol supply has increased due to the restart of facilities, but profits from coal and gas-based production remain weak [1] - Winter fuel demand is providing support, while Iranian gas restrictions have led to multiple facility shutdowns, totaling 12.2 million tons of capacity [1] Shipping and Import Forecast - Iran is expected to ship 340,000 tons in December, with an estimated 700,000 to 800,000 tons still to be shipped [1] - January imports are projected to exceed 130,000 tons, with shipments slightly above expectations [1] Strategy Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce positions in 05MTO due to decreased overseas operating rates and new downstream production [1] - Risk factors include an increase in warehouse receipts and accelerated shipments [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report LPG Part - This week, the domestic civil LPG market faced weak supply and demand. Supply slightly contracted, but seasonal demand was weak, and international LPG prices declined. Overall, prices fluctuated weakly within a narrow range, and the domestic basis strengthened due to the decline in PG futures. The price of etherified C4 oscillated downward and stabilized at the end of the week. Next week, civil demand is expected to remain seasonally weak, while the overall chemical production start - up is likely to receive some short - term support [3][4]. Propylene Part - This week, the domestic propylene market price first declined and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, multiple restarted PDH units led to a significant increase in propylene supply, causing prices to decline. Later in the week, the restart of downstream parking units increased propylene demand, and prices stabilized [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG futures and paper prices showed certain fluctuations. For domestic spot and basis, civil gas prices in different regions had varying degrees of change, and the basis also changed. Regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates also had corresponding adjustments. Propane prices decreased compared to the previous period [8][10][18]. Supply - In domestic production, the total LPG commodity volume was 52.5 million tons, a slight reduction. The civil gas commodity volume was 21.2 million tons (-5.1%), and the etherified C4 commodity volume was 17.1 million tons (+0.7%). In terms of imports, the international vessel arrivals this week were 52.5 million tons (-16.4%). The production and imports of propane in China both decreased [4][38][45]. Demand & Inventory - In terms of demand, civil combustion demand remained seasonally weak due to high temperatures. The PDH operating rate increased significantly this week, and it is expected to rise further next week. The MTBE operating rate continued to increase to 67.6%, up 0.8% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, domestic refinery inventories of LPG and civil gas slightly increased, and LPG terminal import inventories in East China, South China, and Shandong all increased [4][48][52]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, upstream prices such as NAP, methanol, and propane showed different degrees of decline. Propylene prices in different regions also changed, with prices in Shandong, East China, and South China falling by 85, 15, and 100 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Downstream product prices and profits also had corresponding fluctuations [77][79][90]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of different production methods in the propylene industry chain, such as domestic majors, Shandong local refineries, and PDH, changed. The national and Shandong propylene balance sheets showed the supply and demand situation in different months, including production, demand, and balance quantities [98][100][109]. Supply - This week, the domestic propylene market supply increased due to the gradual return of previously shut - down PDH units. The weekly propylene output was 1.166 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period, and the industry's overall capacity utilization rate increased by 1.9% to 73.1% [5]. Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of propylene downstream industries increased. The operating rates of downstream products such as butanol, acrylic acid, and PO all increased, mainly due to the gradual return of multiple shut - down units [5]. Downstream Inventory No relevant content provided.