Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: July 27, 2025 - Author: Chen Xinchao from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **LPG**: This week, the domestic civil LPG market faced weak supply and demand. The supply slightly contracted, but the seasonal demand was weak, and international LPG prices declined, resulting in a narrow and weak price fluctuation. The price of etherified C4 first fell and then rose. Next week, civil demand is expected to remain seasonally weak, while the overall chemical production is likely to receive some short - term boost [3]. - **Propylene**: This week, the domestic propylene market supply increased slightly, while the overall downstream demand decreased slightly. The market price first rose and then fell. The supply - demand gap widened, and the price was under pressure [4]. Summary by Sections LPG Section Price & Spread - **Futures and Paper Goods Prices**: The prices of LPG futures and paper goods showed certain fluctuations. The international propane price weakened and then rebounded slightly at the end of the week, with FEI propane in a deep discount state [7][17]. - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: The prices of domestic civil LPG and other LPG products in different regions had varying degrees of changes. The basis also showed corresponding fluctuations [8]. - **International Propane**: The international propane price weakened and then rebounded slightly. The FEI propane was in a deep discount state, and the freight rates and arbitrage spaces also changed [17][18]. Supply - **US Propane Shipment**: The shipment of US propane to Japan, South Korea, and Europe increased, while the shipment to China decreased significantly [27]. - **Middle - East LPG Shipment**: Except for Kuwait, the LPG shipments from other Middle - East regions decreased this period. The shipment to China decreased, while the shipments to India and Southeast Asia increased [36][43]. - **Imports and Domestic Production**: The total LPG commodity volume was 52.5 tons, remaining unchanged from last week. The civil LPG commodity volume was 21.0 tons (-0.2%), and the etherified C4 commodity volume was 17.6 tons (+0.5%). The international propane arrival decreased by 16.7 tons [3][54]. Demand & Inventory - **Chemical Demand**: Chemical demand continued to recover slightly. The PDH operating rate increased slightly, and the MTBE operating rate continued to rise to 69.0%, a 1.4% increase from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic refinery inventory of LPG showed different trends in different regions. The civil LPG refinery inventory increased slightly, and the LPG terminal inventory in East China increased, while the inventory in other regions decreased [77][81][91]. Propylene Section Price & Spread - **Industrial Chain Prices**: The prices of upstream and downstream products in the propylene industrial chain changed to varying degrees. The prices of some raw materials decreased, while the prices of some products increased or decreased slightly [102][103]. - **International and Domestic Propylene Prices**: International propylene prices decreased slightly, and domestic propylene prices in different regions also showed different trends. The prices in Shandong and East China increased, while the price in North China decreased [102][113][117]. Balance Sheet - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various production processes in the propylene industry increased slightly. The operating rates of downstream products such as PP powder and acrylic acid increased slightly, while the operating rates of PP pellets and PO changed little, and many butanol and phenol - acetone plants were under maintenance [4][120]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply of the domestic propylene market increased slightly this week, while the overall downstream demand decreased slightly. The supply - demand gap widened [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report LPG Part - This week, the domestic civil LPG market faced weak supply and demand. Supply slightly contracted, but seasonal demand was weak, and international LPG prices declined. Overall, prices fluctuated weakly within a narrow range, and the domestic basis strengthened due to the decline in PG futures. The price of etherified C4 oscillated downward and stabilized at the end of the week. Next week, civil demand is expected to remain seasonally weak, while the overall chemical production start - up is likely to receive some short - term support [3][4]. Propylene Part - This week, the domestic propylene market price first declined and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, multiple restarted PDH units led to a significant increase in propylene supply, causing prices to decline. Later in the week, the restart of downstream parking units increased propylene demand, and prices stabilized [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG futures and paper prices showed certain fluctuations. For domestic spot and basis, civil gas prices in different regions had varying degrees of change, and the basis also changed. Regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates also had corresponding adjustments. Propane prices decreased compared to the previous period [8][10][18]. Supply - In domestic production, the total LPG commodity volume was 52.5 million tons, a slight reduction. The civil gas commodity volume was 21.2 million tons (-5.1%), and the etherified C4 commodity volume was 17.1 million tons (+0.7%). In terms of imports, the international vessel arrivals this week were 52.5 million tons (-16.4%). The production and imports of propane in China both decreased [4][38][45]. Demand & Inventory - In terms of demand, civil combustion demand remained seasonally weak due to high temperatures. The PDH operating rate increased significantly this week, and it is expected to rise further next week. The MTBE operating rate continued to increase to 67.6%, up 0.8% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, domestic refinery inventories of LPG and civil gas slightly increased, and LPG terminal import inventories in East China, South China, and Shandong all increased [4][48][52]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, upstream prices such as NAP, methanol, and propane showed different degrees of decline. Propylene prices in different regions also changed, with prices in Shandong, East China, and South China falling by 85, 15, and 100 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Downstream product prices and profits also had corresponding fluctuations [77][79][90]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of different production methods in the propylene industry chain, such as domestic majors, Shandong local refineries, and PDH, changed. The national and Shandong propylene balance sheets showed the supply and demand situation in different months, including production, demand, and balance quantities [98][100][109]. Supply - This week, the domestic propylene market supply increased due to the gradual return of previously shut - down PDH units. The weekly propylene output was 1.166 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period, and the industry's overall capacity utilization rate increased by 1.9% to 73.1% [5]. Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of propylene downstream industries increased. The operating rates of downstream products such as butanol, acrylic acid, and PO all increased, mainly due to the gradual return of multiple shut - down units [5]. Downstream Inventory No relevant content provided.