国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 综述：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 供应 • 2026年1月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量15.37万吨，较2025年12月份预期增长1.01万吨。截至撰稿当日，隆众资讯统计到未来一个月内共1套装置计划检修，涉 及年加工能力10万吨/年。既定检修计划仅茂名石化一家，部分其他装置检修计划有取消迹象，另外独山子石化3万吨高顺顺丁橡胶装置2026年计划常年 停车。（隆众资讯） • 目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为10700-11700元/吨。由于期货交易丁二烯强预期，期货升水现货，静态估值上沿阶段性失效。估值逻辑发生切换， 从成本端对下方估值形成支撑，转变为NR-BR价差对下方估值形成支撑。下方估值而言，有两条估值逻辑。逻辑一为NR-BR价差逻辑，2024年四季度nr- ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 | 供应 | 周期内茂名石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置投料重启，振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置投料但尚未产出，产能利用率表现下降。本周期 • | | --- | --- | | | 高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.82万吨，较上周期减少0.10万吨，环比-3.37%，产能利用率70.19%，环比下降2.45个百分点。周期内浙江石化、振华新材料顺丁橡 | | | 胶装置投料重启但尚未产出，茂名石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修。下周期预计浙江石化、振华新材料顺丁装置逐步恢复产出。（隆众资讯） | | | • 刚需方面，预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率存上涨预期，但整体涨幅受限。检修企业开工逐步恢复至常规水平，将带动整体产能利用率恢复性提 | | 需求 | 升，但整体销售压力不减，部分企业在月底及次月初，存检修安排，将限制整体产能利用率提升幅度。（隆众资讯） | | | • 替代需求方面，目前NR-BR主力合约价差维持在高位，替代需求仍维持在高位。因此顺丁橡胶整体需求端维持同比高增速。 | | | 截至2025年11月19日，国内顺丁橡胶库存量在3.15万吨，较上周期增加0.07万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market rebounds due to the support of the static cash - flow cost line of butadiene rubber futures and event - driven factors like the Sino - US ship mutual sanctions. Medium - term, the market is under pressure due to large fundamental pressure [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (November contract), the daily closing price was 11,135 yuan/ton (up 240 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 76,904 lots (up 16,649 lots), the open interest was 18,411 lots (down 6,057 lots), and the trading volume was 423.201 million yuan (up 97.645 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 35 yuan (down 190 yuan), and the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 was 85 yuan (up 25 yuan) [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong increased by 50 - 150 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan, and the price of model 1712 remained unchanged. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 75 - 100 yuan [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate was 75.3312% (down 3.66%), the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 11,358 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of butadiene rubber was - 158 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Industry News - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons (1.42% month - on - month) compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased. The latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,800 tons, an increase of 3,050 tons compared with the previous period [2][3]