1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term central price of synthetic rubber will move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term [2][4]. - The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be bullish, but it still faces high supply pressure in the medium term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons compared to the expected output in December 2025. One set of equipment with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year is planned for maintenance in the next month. The only established maintenance plan is for Maoming Petrochemical, and some other equipment maintenance plans may be cancelled. Dushanzi Petrochemical's 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant is planned to be shut down throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of the cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the upper limit of the static valuation is invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation instead of the cost side [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue to be weak from December 26, 2025 to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged routine maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and production scheduling at the end of the month decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, resulting in a slight decline in the overall capacity utilization rate [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. The price of cis - butadiene rubber increased due to cost support. The bullish mid - term market outlook in January boosted the enthusiasm of some traders, and with the impact of a small amount of stockpiling before the New Year's Day holiday, some production enterprises significantly destocked, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term trading range will move up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread will gradually narrow [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The weekly output in the next week is expected to be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7]. Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, so the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants decreases, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [9]. - ABS has high inventory pressure, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - The operating rate of SBS has slightly increased, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene with little change [9]. Inventory - From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 0.13% compared to the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.58% compared to the previous week, while the port inventory increased by 3.23% compared to the previous week. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamental Analysis - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To meet the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, the butadiene industry is in a state of continuous expansion, and its expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14][16]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Analysis Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - The output and operating rate data of cis - butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations over the years [47]. - The cost, profit, and gross margin of cis - butadiene rubber production also fluctuate over time [49][50][51]. - The import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years. The weekly apparent demand also fluctuates [53][54][55]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory, shows different trends over time [59][61]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - The inventory and operating rate of tires, an important downstream product of cis - butadiene rubber, also show different trends over the years [63][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber is expected to operate within the valuation range in the short - term. The fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure but are marginally improving, and it is predicted to be in a short - term oscillatory pattern. The fundamentals of cis - butadiene rubber are also under pressure, but it is supported by the valuation, and it will operate within the valuation range [2][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Butadiene Supply - In the current cycle (20251121 - 1127), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 11.31 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.16%. Next week, the output is expected to be around 11.25 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease [5]. - The butadiene industry is in a state of continuous expansion to meet the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene. The expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [12][14]. - Many butadiene production enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out equipment maintenance, which affects the output [18]. Demand - In the medium - term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a high year - on - year level. In the short - term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene equipment decreases in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [7]. - The ABS industry has a large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. The SBS industry's operating rate has slightly increased, maintaining a rigid demand for butadiene with little change [7]. Inventory - In the current cycle (20251120 - 1126), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.24%. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory increased slightly by 0.04% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory increased by 18.84% month - on - month. The port inventory may remain under pressure in the short - term [5]. Synthetic Rubber (Cis - Butadiene Rubber) Supply - In the current cycle, the Maoming Petrochemical cis - butadiene rubber unit was shut down for maintenance, the Zhejiang Petrochemical cis - butadiene rubber unit restarted production, and the Zhenhua New Materials cis - butadiene rubber unit was put into production but has not yet produced. The production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 28,200 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.37%, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.19%, a decrease of 2.45 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials cis - butadiene units are expected to gradually resume production [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to increase next week, but the overall increase is limited. The operating rates of maintenance enterprises are gradually returning to normal levels, which will drive the recovery of the overall capacity utilization rate. However, the overall sales pressure remains high, and some enterprises have maintenance arrangements at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitution demand also remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of November 19, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. The raw material buyers actively followed up this cycle, and the cost support of cis - butadiene rubber was slightly strengthened. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources increased, but the spot resources remained tight. The high - premium offers were difficult to attract buyers, and the private price - holding was also difficult to get terminal follow - up, and some of the transactions weakened. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly [4]. Valuation - The current static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9800 - 10500 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support for the lower valuation to the NR - BR spread support for the lower valuation. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is 10500 - 10600 yuan/ton on the futures market [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market rebounds due to the support of the static cash - flow cost line of butadiene rubber futures and event - driven factors like the Sino - US ship mutual sanctions. Medium - term, the market is under pressure due to large fundamental pressure [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (November contract), the daily closing price was 11,135 yuan/ton (up 240 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 76,904 lots (up 16,649 lots), the open interest was 18,411 lots (down 6,057 lots), and the trading volume was 423.201 million yuan (up 97.645 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 35 yuan (down 190 yuan), and the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 was 85 yuan (up 25 yuan) [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong increased by 50 - 150 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan, and the price of model 1712 remained unchanged. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 75 - 100 yuan [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate was 75.3312% (down 3.66%), the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 11,358 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of butadiene rubber was - 158 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Industry News - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons (1.42% month - on - month) compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased. The latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,800 tons, an increase of 3,050 tons compared with the previous period [2][3]