智通财经APP获悉，崔东树发文称，在国家促销费政策推动下汽车市场保持强势增长，2025年全国汽车市场总体走势较强，卡车市场和客车市场回暖明 显。对比2025年政策力度，今年政策收缩明显，导致今年1月乘用车零售环比下降，但因出口增量，1月厂家销量增速相对较好。1月新能源车走势较平 稳，主要是汽车出口市场持续走强，但行业压力仍较大。2026年商用车市场出现设备更新补贴推动的结构性增长特征，高补贴带来物流运输类电动化加 速，商用车景气度较高。 1、2026年汽车乘商走势分化 近几年乘商分化特征明显，商用车走弱，乘用车消费改善。2025年市场受政策因素推动，乘用车增速9%相对较好，商用车受电动化推动，新能源商用车 走势较去年明显走强，包含微客的客车市场实现较强增长。以旧换新政策对乘用车拉动较好，尤其是政策进入期效果好，近期绝大部分暂停补贴，行业综 合治理"内卷"工作取得积极进展，车市总体走势放缓。 2、2026年汽车市场降温 2025年汽车总计销量343920万台，累计增速9%；2026年1月汽车总计销量235万台，同比下降4%。卡车市场超强，乘用车和客车市场表现稍弱。 3、主力车企集团的表现分化剧烈 2023年初新 ...

前言 2026年中央经济工作会议强调，做好2026年经济工作，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指 导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力 推动高质量发展，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全， 实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性、针对性、协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘 活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五 五"良好开局。要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，提升宏观经济治理效能。要 继续实施更加积极的财政政策。 2026年1月1日起，《乘用车燃料消耗量限值》（GB 19578—2024）、《乘用车燃料消耗量评价方法及指 标》（GB 27999—2025）、《轻型商用车辆燃料消耗量限值及评价指标》（GB 20997—2024）等三项国家标 准实施。一是乘用车方面，《乘用车燃料消耗量限值》国家标准规定了传统能源乘用 ...

日前，《每日经济新闻》记者走访车市发现，当前处于车市销售淡季，多家品牌门店客流量稀疏，销售人员也较为清闲。 "今年开始新能源汽车车辆购置税就减半征收了，用户要自掏腰包交一部分。有刚需的用户基本上1月之前就买好车了，现在又赶上春节，销量肯定还不如 1月，各家销售都差不多是'躺平'状态。"上海一家智己汽车门店的销售人员告诉记者。 图片来源：每经记者 孙桐桐 摄 1月份各车企发布的销量数据也体现了这一市场表现。乘联分会数据显示，1月全国乘用车零售179.4万辆，同比下滑12.1%，环比下降31.9%。各大主流车 企销量整体呈现"同比分化、环比普降"特征。自主车企凭借新能源与全球化布局实现同比增长，但受短期新能源汽车车辆购置税政策切换、购车需求提前 释放等因素影响，环比普遍承压；合资阵营中头部品牌逆势回暖，燃油车基本盘与新能源突破形成支撑；海外市场则成为多家车企的核心增长极，出口增 速普遍超40%，为车市注入重要活力。 自主车企同比增长分化、环比普跌 今年1月，自主车企整体呈现"同比分化、环比普跌"格局，头部品牌凭借完善的产品矩阵与新能源布局实现增长，但环比普遍下滑，行业分化进一步加 剧。 这一趋势在终端市场得到直接 ...

2月伊始，国内主流造车新势力陆续公布2026年首月销量数据。受2025年12月冲量、购置税补贴退坡及春节假期临近等多重因素影响，车市迎来传统淡 季，新势力阵营呈现"环比普跌"的特征，头部阵营排名迎来大洗牌，勾勒出新年车市竞争的激烈图景。 小米汽车以超3.9万辆的交付量跻身第二，创下其在新势力月销榜单中的最好成绩。从产品结构来看，由于SU7即将迎来换代，该月的主要销量由YU7贡 献。据悉，小米汽车工厂正全力为新一代SU7上市做准备，新车预计4月上市。 作为2025年的新势力销冠，零跑汽车1月交付32059辆排名第三，同比增长27%，虽保持同比正增长，但环比下降46.9%。进入2026年，零跑汽车将开启 全矩阵发展，多款新车将在年内上市，后续销量有望逐步回升。 第二、三梯队：多数品牌环比下滑 华为系品牌稳中有进 除头部三强外，"蔚小理"及其余品牌在1月的表现喜忧参半，多数品牌出现环比下滑的现象。理想汽车1月交付27668辆，同比和环比分别下降7.5%和 37.5%，主要原因在于主力车型L系列处于产品生命周期中期，而纯电车型尚未形成有效支撑。为提振销量，理想推出7年超低月供购车方案，同时L系列的 大改款也预计在20 ...

据小鹏汽车官方数据，小鹏汽车2026年1月共交付新车20，011台，其中小鹏X9交付量为4219台 （同比增长413.9%）。截至目前，小鹏X9累计交付51，897台，成为最快交付破5万台的新势力MPV车 型。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nio, despite being an innovative player in the Chinese auto market, faces significant challenges and is viewed as a less attractive investment due to market consolidation and competition from larger manufacturers [1][3]. Industry Overview - The Chinese auto market accounted for 30% of global auto sales in 2025, significantly larger than the U.S. market at 18% and other major markets [1]. - In the first half of 2025, new energy vehicles (including electric vehicles and hybrids) made up 50.1% of new car sales in China [2]. Company Performance - Nio has delivered approximately 1 million cars since its inception in 2019, with 326,028 units delivered in 2025, reflecting a growth of 46.9% compared to 2024 [5]. - Despite this growth, Nio has not yet turned a profit, while competitor BYD reported a net profit of $2.9 billion for the first nine months of 2025 [5]. Market Challenges - The Chinese EV market is expected to face difficulties in 2026, with a projected decline in passenger vehicle deliveries due to the end of government subsidies for EVs and rising lithium prices affecting battery costs [8][10]. - EV sales growth in China slowed to just 2% in December 2025, marking the slowest growth in nearly two years [9]. - Nio and other smaller EV manufacturers did not rank among the top 10 manufacturers for sales in December 2025, with the top 10 accounting for 95% of all EV and hybrid sales [9]. Competitive Landscape - The market is consolidating, with the top three manufacturers—BYD, Changan, and Geely—each achieving annual sales of over 1 million to 2 million units, positioning Nio as too small to compete effectively [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) and Battery Sector in China - **Current Trends**: - Domestic EV insurance registrations increased by 3% YoY and 9% MoM, reaching 1.3 million units in December, resulting in a retail EV penetration of 58.6%, up 6.5 percentage points YoY [2][25] - Wholesale EV penetration decreased to 56%, down 0.9 percentage points MoM but up 6.8 percentage points YoY [25] - Battery sales reached a record high of 143.8 GWh in December, up 49% YoY and 7% MoM [39] Core Insights - **Sales Performance**: - January 2026 retail EV sales volume was reported at 312,000 units, down 16% YoY and 52% MoM, indicating a weakening demand outlook for 2026 [3] - Wholesale EV volume also declined to 348,000 units, down 23% YoY and 46% MoM [3] - **Battery Market**: - ESS battery sales surged to 55.6 GWh, up 1.8 times YoY and 22% MoM [39] - Battery production totaled 201.7 GWh in December, marking a 62% increase YoY and 14% MoM [39] - **Market Share Dynamics**: - BEV models lost 1.2 percentage points YoY market share, while PHEV and EREV gained 0.9 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively [2] Challenges and Risks - **Sector Challenges**: - The sector faces multiple challenges including retreating stimulus, higher taxation, and commodity inflation in 2026 [5] - Slowing domestic demand growth and a rising comparison base may not be offset by new model launches [5] - **Regulatory Changes**: - New regulations in China will require EV makers to monitor vehicle safety, effective from 2027 [8] - Canada has agreed to reduce tariffs on 49,000 Chinese EVs to 6.1% as part of a trade agreement [9] - The EU has set conditions for Chinese EVs to avoid tariffs, which could impact market dynamics [10] Pricing and Cost Trends - **Battery Costs**: - The spot price for battery-grade Li2CO3 increased to RMB 158,000 per ton, up 13% WoW, 67% MoM, and 103% YoY [58] - LFP battery costs rose by 32% YoY, while NCM523 battery costs increased by 47% YoY [55][59] Strategic Developments - **Investment Activities**: - Leapmotor announced a share subscription agreement with Jinyi Hi-Tech, indicating confidence in its new energy vehicle business [13] - **Government Support**: - The Trade-in Vehicle Subsidy Program has been extended into 2026, providing incentives for consumers to switch to new EVs [14][15] Conclusion - The EV and battery sector in China is experiencing significant growth in sales and production, but faces challenges from regulatory changes, market dynamics, and rising costs. The outlook for 2026 remains cautious due to potential demand weakening and external pressures.

Core Insights - General Motors (GM) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 27, with an EPS estimate of $2.19 and revenues of $45 billion, reflecting a 6% decline from the previous year [1][2] - The full-year 2025 revenue estimate is $185 billion, indicating a 1% year-over-year decline, while the EPS is projected at $10.31, a 2.7% contraction from the previous year [2] - GM has consistently surpassed earnings estimates for the past 13 quarters, with a positive Earnings ESP of +16.01% and a Zacks Rank of 1, indicating strong buy potential [3] Sales Performance - In Q4 2025, GM delivered 703,001 vehicles in the U.S., a 7% decline year-over-year, mirroring industry trends, with electric vehicle (EV) sales dropping 43% to 25,219 units [5][6] - Despite the decline in Q4, GM was the top-selling automaker in the U.S. for 2025, with full-year deliveries increasing by 5.5% to 2.85 million units [9] - In China, GM's Q4 deliveries were approximately 541,000 units, down from 600,000 units in Q4 2024, but full-year deliveries rose 2.3% to 1.9 million vehicles, driven by a 22% increase in new energy vehicle demand [10] Financial Outlook - The GM North America (GMNA) unit's revenue estimate for Q4 is around $37 billion, a 7% decrease year-over-year, while EBIT is expected to rise to $2.3 billion from $2.2 billion in Q4 2024 [8] - GM anticipates recording about $6 billion in special charges in Q4 2025 due to its EV rollback, which will impact net income but not adjusted earnings [11] - GM's stock has gained over 50% in the past six months, outperforming industry peers, and is currently trading at a forward earnings multiple of 6.77, indicating it may be undervalued [12][15] Strategic Adjustments - GM is adjusting its strategy by scaling back EV capacity to align with demand, focusing on higher-margin vehicles and proven revenue drivers [17] - The company is experiencing growth in its software and services business, with strong revenues from products like Super Cruise and OnStar [18] - GM's automotive liquidity stands at approximately $36 billion, with ongoing buybacks, enhancing its financial position [18]

Core Insights - China's vehicle sales and production reached record highs in 2025, with production at 34.5 million units (up 10.4% year over year) and sales at 34.4 million units (up 9.4% year over year), driven by strong demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) [2][4] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, China's passenger vehicle market also crossed the 30-million-unit mark, with production at 30.27 million units (up 10.2% year over year) and sales at 30.10 million units (up 9.2% year over year) [3] - The commercial vehicle segment saw production and sales rise to 4.26 million and 4.30 million units, both achieving double-digit growth [3] - China maintained its position as the world's largest auto market for the 17th consecutive year [4] Group 2: NEVs and Export Growth - China remained the largest NEV market globally for the 11th consecutive year in 2025, with NEV production and sales surpassing 16 million units [5] - NEV sales increased by 28% year over year to 16.5 million units, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) leading the growth at 10.6 million units (up 37.6%) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) reaching 5.8 million units (up 14%) [6] - Vehicle exports reached a record 7.1 million units, up 21% year over year, driven by improved product quality and competitive pricing [7] Group 3: Key Players - BYD led in volume with approximately 4.6 million vehicles delivered in 2025, marking a 7.7% year-over-year increase [9] - NIO delivered 326,028 vehicles, up nearly 47% year over year, while XPeng recorded the fastest growth with deliveries jumping 126% to 429,445 units [10] - Li Auto delivered 406,343 vehicles, reflecting a 19% year-over-year decrease, despite expanding its international presence [11] Group 4: Future Outlook - Growth in China's auto market is expected to moderate in 2026, with total vehicle sales forecasted to increase by just 1% to 34.8 million units, compared to a 9% rise in 2025 [17] - Passenger vehicle sales are projected to rise 0.5% to 30.3 million units, while commercial vehicle sales are expected to increase by 5% to 4.5 million units [18] - NEVs are anticipated to remain the main growth driver, with sales forecasted to rise 15% to 19 million units, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years [18]

Group 1 - AI is extending from cloud computing to factory production lines and pharmaceutical laboratories, indicating a shift in the wealth map for the next five years [1] - A closed-door seminar hosted by 21st Century Business Herald gathered nearly 30 distinguished guests, including economists, asset management executives, and scientists, to discuss the new cycle in capital markets driven by technology narratives [1] - The seminar highlighted the importance of strategic emerging industries such as AI, new energy vehicles, and semiconductors, which have moved from a nascent stage to a more robust phase of commercialization [5][6] Group 2 - The chief economist of Zheshang Bank presented a model analyzing the economic outlook across 31 primary industries and 124 secondary industries, predicting that 2026 will be a turning point for economic recovery [3] - The discussion emphasized that the negative impacts of external shocks on traditional industries are gradually being absorbed, with the real estate sector's downturn affecting various related industries [3] - A consensus emerged that a new investment cycle is likely to begin in the second half of 2026, supported by more proactive fiscal policies focusing on both "things" and "people" [5] Group 3 - Concerns about the potential bubble in AI investments were addressed, with most industry representatives rejecting the notion of a bubble, citing that current AI investments are still a small fraction of GDP [9][7] - The discussion revealed that AI is seen as a driver of productivity improvements, with companies leveraging AI technologies to enhance operational efficiency [10][11] - The challenges of transitioning from advanced research to stable delivery in production and achieving sustainable business models in the capital market were highlighted as significant hurdles [11] Group 4 - The need for a balance between short-term performance and long-term AI research investments was emphasized by representatives from robotics and semiconductor companies [14] - The concept of "patient capital" was introduced as essential for hard technology enterprises, with a focus on long-term investments in strategic sectors like computing chips and quantum computing [12][14] - The seminar concluded with a clear consensus on the investment focus being on embracing AI and computing infrastructure, while seeking applications that address real pain points and emphasizing globally competitive companies [15]