Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have surged, nearing $3432 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven amid rising uncertainties, with the market reacting sensitively to any news [3][4] - There is a potential for short-term price corrections, and caution is advised against chasing high prices [3] Group 2: Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices have increased by 13%, approaching the $70 mark, primarily due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the security of oil supply routes [3][4] - The OPEC+ production cuts and underperformance of U.S. shale oil are contributing to a widening supply-demand gap, making price increases likely [3][4] - If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could potentially spike to $120, although this scenario is considered unlikely [3] Group 3: Long-term Investment Considerations - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, including geopolitical conflicts, high inflation, and trade tensions, which could impact market stability [4][5] - Key signals to monitor for long-term investors include any signs of de-escalation in the Middle East, shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the sustainability of OPEC+ production agreements [4] - Long-term asset performance will ultimately depend on cash flow generation rather than short-term market sentiment [5]

Group 1 - Kazakhstan has confirmed it will not reduce oil production in May, maintaining an output of 277,000 tons per day (approximately 2 million barrels per day), which is higher than March's production of 260,000 tons [1] - This decision is a direct challenge to Saudi Arabia's authority within OPEC+, as Kazakhstan has been violating production quotas, leading to tensions within the organization [1][2] - The recent OPEC+ agreement to increase production has shocked traders and caused international oil prices to drop below $60 per barrel, largely due to Saudi Arabia's punitive stance towards overproducing member states like Kazakhstan [2] Group 2 - Kazakhstan's planned production for May is approximately 2 million barrels per day, significantly exceeding the OPEC+ quota of just under 1.4 million barrels per day, highlighting the extent of its overproduction [2] - The country has stated that it has little influence over production decisions for projects operated by foreign companies, such as Chevron and Eni, which are contributing to the production surge [2] - Despite its current stance, Kazakhstan's energy ministry has indicated it is considering compliance with OPEC+ production cuts, suggesting an awareness of potential consequences from continued violations [3]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025-05-07原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利空： 1.需求端乐观仍待验证 原油2506： 1.基本面：中国外交部表示，副总理何立峰将于5月9日至12日访问瑞士，期间将作为中美经贸中方牵 头人，与美方牵头人美国财长贝森特举行会谈；二叠纪盆地最大独立生产商Diamondback Energy下调 全年产量预测，并称预计未来几个月美国页岩油产量将下降。与此同时，美国在油价最新一轮暴跌之 前就已下调原油产量预测；哈萨克斯坦正在考虑遵守该国的欧佩克+减产义务的选项，此前沙特重申 让配额作弊者遵守规定；中性 2.基差：5月6日，阿曼原油现货价为61.93美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋 ...

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia has issued a final ultimatum to OPEC+ members violating production quotas, demanding compliance or facing increased market supply [1][2] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, marking the second consecutive month of production increases [1] - This increase is seen as a punitive measure against countries like Kazakhstan and Iraq that have consistently exceeded their production quotas [1] Group 2: Saudi Arabia's Stance - Several OPEC+ representatives indicated that unless countries agree to a production cut, Saudi Arabia is considering gradually lifting its voluntary reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day [2] - This voluntary cut has been a key factor supporting global oil prices, with OPEC+ initially planning to restore this reduction by the end of 2026 [2] Group 3: Market Implications - If Saudi Arabia follows through on its threat, the global oil market could face a significant supply increase in the coming months, potentially exerting further downward pressure on already weak oil prices [5] - The strong stance from Saudi Arabia suggests a fracture in OPEC+ unity, which typically undermines market confidence in the organization's ability to control supply [5]