Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Investment rating for alumina: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Group 2: Core Views - The escalation of the Sino - US tariff trade war has led to a decline in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum, increasing downstream purchasing enthusiasm, narrowing the spot discount, and rising overseas premiums. The tariff increase has little impact on the aluminum supply - demand fundamentals, with China's aluminum exports rising in September. Overseas macro - positive factors remain, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - The domestic and overseas alumina spot markets have not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side games. The supply of domestic ore in the north is tight, and there is production reduction in Shanxi. The alumina fundamentals show no signs of improvement, but the price is undervalued, and risks increase as the Guinea referendum approaches [7][8]. Group 3: Key Data Summaries Aluminum - Spot prices: On October 14, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,900 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,840 yuan/ton; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices: The main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,885 yuan/ton and closed at 20,860 yuan/ton on October 14, 2025, with no change from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,035 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,845 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,426 lots, and the open interest was 159,179 lots [2]. - Inventory: As of October 14, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, with a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 63,176 tons, with a change of 25 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 503,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina - Spot prices: On October 14, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,905 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,870 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,930 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,120 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,115 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: The main alumina contract opened at 2,817 yuan/ton and closed at 2,805 yuan/ton on October 14, 2025, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.71%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,829 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,791 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 233,289 lots, and the open interest was 356,373 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On October 14, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [9]. - Arbitrage strategy: Long - short spread trading on SHFE aluminum [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is cautiously bullish, and the rating for arbitrage is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - LME inventory has slightly increased, but the absolute value remains below 40,000 tons, leading to a rapid increase in overseas premiums. The domestic supply pressure persists, but the opening of the export window has reversed the short - allocation logic. The linkage between domestic and overseas zinc prices will strengthen, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $201.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,220 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 45 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On October 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan per ton, closed at 22,220 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 124,307 lots, and the position was 95,194 lots. The highest price was 22,335 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,210 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 38,600 tons, a change of 1,125 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - LME inventory has a slight rebound, but the absolute value is still low, causing the overseas premium to quickly break through $200 per ton. The domestic smelting profit has narrowed, but the supply pressure remains. The opening of the export window has changed the short - allocation logic, and the linkage between domestic and overseas prices will strengthen. There's no need to be overly pessimistic about the long - term impact of tariffs [4] Strategy - Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and arbitrage is neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The domestic supply pressure remains as the domestic smelting profit narrows but does not affect the smelting seasonality. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally, strengthening the linkage between the Shanghai zinc price and overseas macro factors. Although there are short - term fluctuations due to tariff trade wars, there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $100.45 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,200 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton, closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 177,344 lots, and the open interest was 101,699 lots. The highest price was 22,450 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,100 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 13, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,475 tons, a change of - 475 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory has fallen below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium continues to strengthen. Although tariff trade wars cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The opening of the export window weakens the short - allocation value of SHFE zinc. Although the domestic supply pressure remains, the export window opening and the change in domestic TC make the short - allocation logic change marginally. The SHFE zinc price will be more sensitive to overseas macro - positive factors, and the linkage between domestic and overseas markets will strengthen. With the LME inventory below 38,000 tons and the overseas premium rising, there is still a warrant risk. Despite short - term fluctuations caused by the tariff trade war, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff impact [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - On October 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation of 0.32%, and the LME price closed at $2,984.5/ton, with a fluctuation of - 0.01%. The spot prices in East China, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 22,300 yuan/ton, 22,320 yuan/ton, and 22,310 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes in the premium/discount to the main contract compared to the previous period. The LME (0 - 3) premium was $66.80/ton, with a weekly change of + $7.69/ton [1] - The weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM was 3,500 yuan/metal ton, with a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates was $118.50/dry ton, with a weekly change of $2.60/dry ton. The import profit and loss of zinc concentrates was - 2,379.03 yuan/ton [1] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises were 46.83% (a change of - 1.83% compared to last week), 46.51% (a change of - 0.35% compared to last week), and 56.08% (a change of - 1.24% compared to last week) respectively [1] Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 150,200 tons, an increase of 8,800 tons compared to the previous week. The warrant inventory was 60,644 tons, and the LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons [2] Profit - As of October 10, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises (excluding by - product income) was about - 436 yuan/ton. The sulfuric acid price in Inner Mongolia was 735 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. After adding by - product income, the profit was about 1,100 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - Domestic smelters have low enthusiasm for purchasing domestic zinc ores. The domestic TC and imported TC continue to diverge, and the domestic TC declines. Although the domestic supply has not changed significantly, the opening of the export window changes the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory is below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium is rising, with a warrant risk. The tariff trade war causes short - term fluctuations, but the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff impact [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Financial Performance - The company's after-tax operating profit and EBIT increased from approximately 200 million to over 400 million between 2021 and 2022, resulting in ROE rising from 1% in 2021 to 6% in 2022 [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains rose from 30 million to 220 million during the same period, attributed to improved product structure and operational management [1] - The decrease in inventory write-down losses and the decline in raw material prices also positively impacted profitability [1] Sales and Market Position - Despite a decline of 610,000 units in compressor sales from 2021 to 2022, revenue continued to increase, indicating improved market competitiveness and higher product prices [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing the proportion of high-value-added products, such as commercial and variable frequency compressors, to improve average selling prices [2] Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of a manufacturing facility in Mexico aims to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariff policies, with the plant already in mass production for North American clients [2] - The company is actively monitoring changes in tariff policies and is prepared to adapt strategies to maintain healthy growth [2] Regulatory Impact - The implementation of the 2025 energy efficiency standards for refrigerators is expected to favor high-efficiency products, prompting the company to increase investments in variable frequency technology [3] Client Base - Key clients for the company's new energy vehicle air conditioning compressors include SAIC-GM-Wuling, Yijiete, and Dongfeng Motor, with ongoing efforts to expand the customer base [3] Investor Engagement - The online earnings presentation on August 19, 2025, aimed to provide a convenient platform for investors to engage and understand the company's operational status and future plans [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. tariff policy is causing significant backlash both globally and domestically, with criticism from Democratic leaders in the Senate [1][2] - Senator Chuck Schumer highlighted that the trade war initiated by Trump is detrimental to American citizens, leading to a 3% decline in business investment in tangible goods due to uncertainty over tariff rates [1] - Price increases on various goods have been noted, with leather prices rising by 40%, fresh agricultural products by 7%, automobiles by 12%, and computers and electronics by 18%, resulting in an estimated additional annual cost of $2,400 for the average American household [1] Group 2 - Senator Maria Cantwell emphasized that the revenue generated from tariffs comes directly from American citizens, warning against being misled by government claims [2] - There are legal challenges regarding the Trump administration's authority to unilaterally raise import taxes without congressional approval, indicating potential constitutional violations [2] - The public has the right to be informed about the implications of these tariffs and the government's actions regarding tax collection [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from 69 trade partners, effective seven days after the announcement [1] - 40 countries or regions will face a 15% tariff, while 10 countries or regions will face tariffs of 19% or 20% [1] - Goods from countries not listed will incur an additional 10% tariff, while products from China are unaffected by this order [1] Group 2 - The tariff measures have sparked widespread criticism from both domestic and international entities, with U.S. senators expressing concerns over economic uncertainty and inflation [2] - South Africa's trade minister highlighted that higher tariffs threaten key industries such as automotive and agriculture, prompting urgent protective measures [2] - The Swiss government expressed regret over the U.S. tariff policy, despite progress in bilateral negotiations [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from 69 trade partners, effective seven days after the announcement [1] - 40 countries or regions will face a 15% tariff, while 10 countries or regions will be subject to tariffs of 19% or 20% [1] - Goods from countries not included in the 69 trade partners list will incur an additional 10% tariff, while products from China are unaffected by this order [1] Group 2 - The tariff measures have sparked widespread criticism both domestically and internationally, with U.S. senators expressing concerns over the impact on American businesses and inflation [2] - South Africa's trade minister highlighted that higher tariffs threaten key industries such as automotive and agriculture, prompting urgent protective measures [2] - The Swiss government expressed regret over the U.S. tariff policy, despite progress in bilateral negotiations [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer criticized the government's tariff trade war as a "trade war against the American people" [2] - Senator Maria Cantwell highlighted that the revenue touted by the White House from the tariff war actually comes from the pockets of American citizens [3] Summary by Category - **Trade War Impact** - The trade war is perceived as detrimental to American consumers, with rising prices across various sectors including automobiles, computers, fresh produce, and leather goods [2] - **Government Revenue Claims** - The claims of increased revenue from tariffs are challenged, indicating that these funds are ultimately sourced from American households rather than benefiting them [3]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer criticized the government's tariff trade war as a "trade war against the American people" [1] - Schumer presented price comparison charts showing rising prices across various categories, including cars, computers, fresh produce, and leather goods [1] - Democratic Senator Cantwell accused the White House of misleading the public about the revenue generated from the tariff war, stating that the money actually comes from American citizens' pockets [1]