10月9日，上期所中质含硫原油期货仓单5401000桶，环比上个交易日持平。 克罗地亚国有运营商Janaf：已停止向塞尔维亚俄罗斯控股的NIS石油公司供应石油。 机构观点汇总： 截至2025年10月10日当周，原油期货主力合约收于461.9元/桶，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持3872 手。 本周（10月9日-10月10日）市场上看，原油期货周内开盘报470.9元/桶，最高触及472.5元/桶，最低下探 至461.7元/桶，周度涨跌幅达-3.87%。 消息面回顾： 澳新银行：预计2026年上半年油价将维持在每桶60至65美元左右。到2026年底，油价存在进一步回升至 每桶70美元的可能性，这可能是由于需求复苏加速，也可能是欧佩克采取行动，通过减产来支撑市场。 中辉期货：中长期走势，新能源替代，OPEC扩产，供给逐渐过剩，25年底26年初累库压力较大，重点 关注60美元左右页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。技术与短周期走势，地缘提振与供给过剩拉扯，油价转弱。 策略：空单继续持有，并购买看涨期权保护仓位。SC关注【470-485】。 混沌天成期货：OPEC+新一轮会议宣布将在11月继续增产13.7万桶/日，沙特争夺份额意图 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously Bullish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [1] - PP: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [1] - PVC: Low - level Volatility [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bullish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [4] - Glass: Short - term Bullish, Long - term Bearish [4] - Soda Ash: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical disturbances, supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and cost changes. For some products, geopolitical events can cause short - term price fluctuations, while long - term trends are mainly determined by supply - demand fundamentals. For example, crude oil is affected by geopolitical events in the short term but faces long - term supply surplus pressure [1][6]. - Some products are influenced by the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season. However, the actual demand may not meet expectations, affecting their price trends. For instance, PTA and MEG have weaker demand during this period [2][34][39]. - Inventory levels play a crucial role in determining product prices. For example, high inventory levels can suppress prices, while low inventory levels can provide some support [1][11][34]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with WTI down 0.02%, Brent up 0.18%, and SC up 1.37% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances led to a short - term oil price rebound, and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories provided short - term support. However, there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices may drop to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase as Iraq's Kurdish region resumes oil exports. Demand in India decreased in August. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending September 19 [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [485 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4254 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Weaker cost from crude oil, increased downstream chemical demand, and approaching holidays led to inventory reduction by refineries, suppressing LPG prices. High warehouse receipts also pressured the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4200 - 4300] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 closing price (main contract) was 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term rebound following cost, with increased supply expected as previous maintenance devices return. Import volume is expected to rise. Demand is strengthening as the shed film season begins [17]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 closing price (main contract) was 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, and the market rebounded. Supply pressure may ease as the upstream parking ratio is 18%. Downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6850 - 6950] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price (main contract) was 4935 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and social inventory has increased for 14 consecutive weeks. Low prices and positive macro sentiment support the market. Pay attention to downstream replenishment before the National Day [27]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have little change, while demand from PTA is expected to weaken. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still relatively high [30]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at a profit. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6585 - 6680] for PX511 [31] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure may ease as device maintenance is expected to increase. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is under - performing, and demand is weakening. Inventory is decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at a profit. Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and buy call options [34] MEG - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is weak during the consumption season, but low inventory supports the price [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4210 - 4255] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the methanol spot price in East China was 2299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and overseas device load has slightly declined. Demand has improved, and social inventory accumulation has slowed down. Cost support is stabilizing [42][43] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2331 - 2361] for MA01 [44] Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak both domestically and overseas. Inventory is continuously increasing, and cost support is expected to weaken [47][48] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for long - term long - buying opportunities at low prices [2] Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish. Geopolitical factors boost energy prices in the short term, and the approaching consumption season supports demand. As of September 19, US natural gas inventory increased, and cooling weather will increase demand [4] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously Bearish. Weaker cost from crude oil, increased supply pressure, and demand affected by typhoons in the south. Valuation is relatively high [4] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Core View**: Short - term Bullish, Long - term Bearish. The market is rising due to anti - competition factors. Supply is under pressure, and demand from the real estate industry is weak. Pay attention to downstream replenishment during the peak season [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term long, long - term short, or short the spread between soda ash and glass [4] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities. Demand has improved, but the expected glass production cut may suppress demand. Supply is expected to be abundant as summer maintenance ends [4] - **Strategy**: In the medium - to long - term, short on rebounds [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Low-level oscillation [1] - **PX**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **PTA**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Urea**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [4] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish rebound [4] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to a short - term oil price rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. The price may decline to around $60 in the medium - to - long term [1][6]. - **LPG**: The cost - end oil price rebounds briefly, but the supply - surplus pressure increases. The price center is expected to continue to move down [1]. - **L**: It rebounds following the cost in the short term. The fundamentals show strong supply and demand, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1]. - **PP**: The cost support improves, and the price stops falling and rebounds. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is entering the peak season [1]. - **PVC**: It rebounds due to the anti - involution sentiment in the glass industry. The price is at a low level with strong exports, but the fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. The inventory is still relatively high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - **PTA**: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic device slightly increases its load, and the overseas devices change little. The consumption season is underperforming, and it is bearish with caution [39]. - **Methanol**: The supply - side pressure remains large, but the demand improves. The cost support stabilizes, and the downside space is limited [42]. - **Urea**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakly oscillating [47]. - **Natural Gas**: The U.S. natural gas inventory accumulates more than expected, causing the price to weaken, but the demand for winter storage provides some support [4]. - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply pressure increases, so the price is under pressure [4]. - **Glass**: It may be sorted at a high level in the short term. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate completion area is weak [4]. - **Soda Ash**: It rebounds following the glass. The supply is expected to be loose, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long term [4] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 2.49%, Brent rose 2.22%, and SC rose 1.47% [5] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - the oil export of the Iraq Kurdistan region to Turkey has not restarted; demand - OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand; inventory - U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased [7] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [475 - 490] for SC [8] LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,254 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [9] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end has short - term support, but the long - term trend is downward. The demand is weakening, and the supply and inventory are increasing [11] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] for PG [12] L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,142 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [15] - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds following the cost. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is supported by the peak season of agricultural films [17] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,250] for L [17] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,877 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [20] - **Fundamentals**: The cost support improves, the supply pressure eases, and the demand enters the peak season [22] - **Strategy**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6,830 - 6,950] for PP [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,919 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [25] - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds due to the glass industry. The price is low with strong exports, but the supply is strong and the demand is weak [27] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] for V [27] PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [29] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side devices change little, the demand - side PTA may have more maintenance in the later period, and the supply - demand balance is expected to ease [30] - **Strategy**: Stop losses on short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6,575 - 6,665] for PX511 [31] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [32] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side pressure may ease, the "Golden September and Silver October" is underperforming, and the demand is weak [34] - **Strategy**: Stop losses on short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices and buy call options [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [38] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic device slightly increases its load, the overseas devices change little, and the consumption season is underperforming [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [41] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side pressure is large, but the demand improves, and the cost support stabilizes [42] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2,345 - 2,375] for MA01 [44] Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,661 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [45] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [47] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on dips [48] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: As of the week ending September 12, the U.S. natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory accumulates more than expected, the price weakens, but the demand for winter storage provides support [4] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply pressure increases [4] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: It may be sorted at a high level in the short term. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate completion area is weak [4] - **Strategy**: Observe in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds following the glass. The supply is expected to be loose [4] - **Strategy**: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]