Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 50%-70%, driven primarily by substantial investment income and improved insurance service performance [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 50.42 yuan, and a projected P/EV of 0.9x for 2025. The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters is projected to be between 156.785 billion and 177.689 billion yuan, reflecting a notable increase compared to the 6.9% profit growth in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The estimated net profit for the third quarter alone is expected to be between 115.854 billion and 136.758 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 75%-106%. This growth is attributed to a significant rise in investment income and improvements in insurance service performance [2]. Investment Income Growth - The substantial increase in investment income is anticipated to result from a recovery in the stock market and an optimized asset allocation strategy that favors equity assets. As of September 2025, the CSI 300 index has risen by 17.9% year-to-date, compared to 17.1% in the same period last year, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 15.8% year-to-date [3]. - The company has actively promoted the entry of long-term funds into the market, enhancing equity investment efforts. The core equity assets (stocks and funds, excluding money market funds) reached 969.123 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 35.7% year-on-year [3]. Insurance Service Performance - The company is expected to see strong growth in new business value (NBV), with a projected year-on-year increase of 30.7% for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an acceleration from the growth rate in the first half of 2025. This is attributed to proactive new policy sales before the adjustment of the "831" interest rate [4]. - Additionally, the rise in the ten-year government bond yield by 20 basis points year-to-date, along with strict cost control measures, is expected to further enhance the performance of insurance services [4]. Catalysts - An unexpected improvement in the equity market is identified as a potential catalyst for further growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing continuous improvement in both liabilities and assets, with significant upward valuation potential remaining. The market's savings demand remains strong, and with regulatory guidance and proactive transformation by insurance companies, liability costs are expected to gradually decrease, alleviating pressure from interest margin losses [1] Group 1: Profitability Indicators - The combined net profit of A-share listed insurance companies grew by 4.4% in the first half of 2025, with Q2 growth improving sequentially, primarily driven by increased investment income. Notably, New China Life Insurance saw a year-on-year increase of 34% due to greater elasticity in equity investments [1] - The net assets of five A-share insurance companies increased by 1.1% compared to the beginning of the year, while the embedded value (EV) grew by 5.7% [1] - Mid-term dividends have generally increased rapidly, with stable payout ratios; New China Life's dividends rose by 24% year-on-year, outpacing peers [1] Group 2: Life Insurance - New business value (NBV) maintained rapid growth, with significant contributions from the bancassurance channel. In Q2, new single premium growth improved sequentially, with over 90% of new business from Taiping being participating insurance [2] - The average NBV of listed insurance companies increased by 31% year-on-year, with notable growth from PICC Life and New China Life at 72% and 58%, respectively [2] - The average value rate of listed insurance companies improved by 4.3 percentage points, driven by factors such as the reduction of preset interest rates and the deepening of integrated operations [2] Group 3: Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums showed steady growth, with a 4% year-on-year increase in premiums for listed insurance companies, and Ping An recorded the highest growth rate at 7% [3] - The average combined cost ratio improved to 96.1%, a year-on-year improvement of 1.5 percentage points, attributed to reduced disaster claims and better expense management [3] - PICC achieved a combined cost ratio of 95.3%, marking the best level for the same period in nearly a decade [3] Group 4: Investment - The investment asset scale of the five listed insurance companies grew by 7.5% compared to the beginning of the year [4] - The average net investment yield for listed insurance companies decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining interest rates, while the total investment yield (excluding Taiping) increased by 0.1 percentage points, driven by a recovery in the stock market [4] - There was a significant increase in equity investments, with the average proportion of FVOCI stocks rising by 7.2 percentage points to approximately 41% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in its combined ratio (COR) and achieved high growth in both new business value (NBV) and profit for Q1 2025 [2][3] - The company’s property and casualty insurance segment saw a steady increase in premium income, with a notable rise in underwriting profit [3] - The life insurance segment's NBV increased by 31.5% year-on-year, attributed to a significant enhancement in NBV margin [4] - Investment income saw a substantial increase, with total investment income and fair value changes rising by 157.2% year-on-year [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1,565.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 128.49 billion, up 43.4% year-on-year [2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 4.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] Property and Casualty Insurance - The property and casualty insurance segment generated insurance service revenue of 1,207.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and underwriting profit of 66.53 billion, up 183.0% year-on-year [3] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 94.5%, a year-on-year optimization of 3.4 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in natural disaster claims [3] Life Insurance - The life insurance segment's NBV increased by 31.5% year-on-year, with first-year premium income for long-term insurance at 212.06 billion, down 12.7% year-on-year [4] - The health insurance segment showed an improvement in premium structure, with long-term first-year premium income of 99.88 billion, up 4.3% year-on-year [4] Investment Performance - The company optimized its asset allocation, leading to a significant increase in investment performance, with total investment income rising by 389.9% year-on-year to 122.18 billion [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its previous profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 6,595 billion, 7,126 billion, and 7,368 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits of 455 billion, 491 billion, and 529 billion respectively [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.03, 1.11, and 1.20 yuan [6]

Core Insights - China Life Insurance reported a net profit of 12.85 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.4%, aligning with expectations [1] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 94.5%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced disaster risks and effective cost management [2] - The investment income surged to 12.2 billion yuan, marking a 390% year-on-year increase, indicating strong investment performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.85 billion yuan, with property and casualty insurance net profit at 11.31 billion yuan, up 92.7% year-on-year [1] - Life and health insurance net profits were 3.65 billion yuan and 2.43 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -4.4% and +59.9% respectively [1] - The total premium income for property and casualty insurance was 180.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2] Group 2: Underwriting and Premium Growth - The COR for property and casualty insurance improved significantly, attributed to reduced disaster risks and enhanced expense management [2] - The premium growth was steady, with auto insurance premiums at 71.7 billion yuan and non-auto insurance premiums at 108.7 billion yuan, both showing positive year-on-year growth [2] - There was a notable divergence in growth rates among non-auto insurance segments, with health insurance growing by 6.5% while agricultural insurance declined by 4.1% [2] Group 3: Investment and Asset Management - The company's net assets increased to 279.3 billion yuan, up 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, supported by effective asset-liability matching [3] - The total investment return rate for property and casualty insurance improved to 1.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [3] - The solvency ratios for core and comprehensive solvency were 216.3% and 237.5%, respectively, indicating a strong capital position [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong buy recommendation, anticipating continued profit growth driven by improved COR and NBV [4] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 46.5 billion, 49.3 billion, and 51.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.4%, 6.0%, and 3.6% respectively [4] - The current closing price corresponds to dynamic P/B ratios of 1.08, 1.01, and 0.95 for 2025-2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][11]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) exceeded expectations with a growth of 35% year-on-year, driven by individual insurance and bancassurance channels [6][7]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 27.016 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.4% year-on-year, primarily impacted by fluctuations in the fair value of bonds and the consolidation of Ping An Health [6][9]. - The operating profit showed a stable performance with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% to 37.907 billion yuan [6]. Financial Performance Summary - As of March 31, 2025, the company's net asset per share was 51.61 yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 89.84% [3]. - The total share capital was 18.21 billion shares, with 10.763 billion shares circulating in A-shares and 7.448 billion in H-shares [3]. - The company's investment assets grew by 3.3% year-to-date to 5.92 trillion yuan, with a net investment return of 0.9% and a comprehensive investment return of 1.3% [8]. Business Segment Analysis - The individual insurance segment's NBV grew by 11.5% year-on-year, despite a 19.5% decline in new single premiums [7]. - The bancassurance channel saw a significant increase in NBV by 170.8% year-on-year, benefiting from a low base and increased industry concentration [7]. - The property and casualty insurance segment reported a premium income growth of 7.7% year-on-year, with a combined ratio (COR) improvement to 96.6% [8]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to 127.279 billion yuan, 140.233 billion yuan, and 162.904 billion yuan respectively [9][10]. - The report indicates that the company's closing price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) of 0.62x for 2025 [9].