消息面上，2026年以来，银行超50万亿元的天量高息定期存款到期，资金流向成为市场热议的话题。东 海证券指，受存款搬家催化，以及权益市场提振带动分红险保险竞争力提升，2026保险"开门红"销售火 热，头部险企新单保费增速亮眼。该行预计，在居民稳健理财需求持续释放、银保渠道产能进一步兑现 的支撑下，"开门红"期间行业整体保费规模将保持高增态势，头部险企凭借渠道与产品优势，保费增长 动能将持续领先行业。 华创证券指出，着眼短期，预计上市险企2025年业绩预增可期，或主要受投资端业绩驱动。把握中期， 2026年上半年基数压力相对较小，权益市场活跃+负债端欣欣向荣，有望驱动业绩超预期。放眼长远， 当前长端利率企稳趋势明显，利差损压力大幅减轻，该行认为PEV估值或有望向1x修复，居民挪储或带 动NBV强劲增长，或驱动部分优质龙头险企PEV估值提升至1x以上。 内险股震荡走高，截至发稿，新华保险（601336）(01336)涨3.48%，报65.4港元；中国太保（601601） (02601)涨3.48%，报39.9港元；中国平安（601318）(02318)涨3.03%，报73.1港元；中国人寿（601628） (02 ...

根据公司公告，2025 年业绩大幅增长的主要原因之一为投资业绩高增，我们估计保险服务业绩或相对 稳定。投资端，2025 年下半年（尤其第四季度）公司优秀的投资表现有效对冲并弥补了上半年投资业 绩承压带来的不利影响。2025 年上半年，中国太平投资业绩为负，表现为投资亏损，为公司利润表现 带来一定压力。三季度时投资收益已有所修复，根据太平人寿三季报，前三季度太平人寿总投资收益同 比增长4%左右，带动税前利润同比增长18%。考虑到下半年归母净利润涨幅超700%，我们估计第四季 度投资收益表现非常强劲，带动全年投资业绩同比大幅增长。从投资结构看，截至1H25末，公司股票 和基金的配置比例合计为12.2%，2025 年下半年公司积极加仓权益，我们估计股票和基金配置比例有所 提升。 展望2026 年，行业负债端有望全面转向分红险。当前分红险的实际收益率在3%左右水平，已较为明显 地高出传统险（预定利率2%），在居民储蓄需求仍处于高位的背景下，储蓄性质较强的寿险产品仍具 有较强的吸引力，分红险有望在2026 年推动负债端保持有韧性的增长。公司分红险转型领先行业，经 验丰富，2025 年已基本形成以分红险为主的新单产品结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by regulatory adjustments and positive market expectations for future growth in net premium value (NBV) and profitability. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index rose by 2.24%, with key stocks such as China Ping An increasing by 5.23% and China Taiping by 4.58% [1] - The Insurance Securities ETF also saw an increase of 2.27%, with the latest price at 1.44 yuan [1] Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has adjusted risk factors for insurance companies investing in the CSI 300 Index, the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index, and stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, leading to a more favorable investment environment [1] Group 3: Positive Growth Expectations - Long-term interest rates have stabilized, with the ten-year government bond yield rising to 1.85%, which is beneficial for the growth of insurance companies' net assets and profit reserves [1] - The expected NBV growth for listed insurance companies is around 15% for the full year of 2026, with leading companies projected to achieve over 25% in Q1 due to better penetration through bank insurance channels and high-net-worth individual clients [1] - Insurance companies have seen equity returns between 20% and 30% since the beginning of 2025, with further benefits anticipated from mid-to-long-term pilot programs and the industry-wide OCI switch next year [1] - Current price-to-earnings valuations for most listed companies are between 0.5 and 0.7 times, which is within the historical 40-50% valuation range [1] Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index is based on the CSI 800 Index, selecting relevant securities from the insurance sector, providing diverse investment options [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 63.12% of the total, including major players like China Ping An and CITIC Securities [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 50%-70%, driven primarily by substantial investment income and improved insurance service performance [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 50.42 yuan, and a projected P/EV of 0.9x for 2025. The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters is projected to be between 156.785 billion and 177.689 billion yuan, reflecting a notable increase compared to the 6.9% profit growth in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The estimated net profit for the third quarter alone is expected to be between 115.854 billion and 136.758 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 75%-106%. This growth is attributed to a significant rise in investment income and improvements in insurance service performance [2]. Investment Income Growth - The substantial increase in investment income is anticipated to result from a recovery in the stock market and an optimized asset allocation strategy that favors equity assets. As of September 2025, the CSI 300 index has risen by 17.9% year-to-date, compared to 17.1% in the same period last year, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 15.8% year-to-date [3]. - The company has actively promoted the entry of long-term funds into the market, enhancing equity investment efforts. The core equity assets (stocks and funds, excluding money market funds) reached 969.123 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 35.7% year-on-year [3]. Insurance Service Performance - The company is expected to see strong growth in new business value (NBV), with a projected year-on-year increase of 30.7% for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an acceleration from the growth rate in the first half of 2025. This is attributed to proactive new policy sales before the adjustment of the "831" interest rate [4]. - Additionally, the rise in the ten-year government bond yield by 20 basis points year-to-date, along with strict cost control measures, is expected to further enhance the performance of insurance services [4]. Catalysts - An unexpected improvement in the equity market is identified as a potential catalyst for further growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing continuous improvement in both liabilities and assets, with significant upward valuation potential remaining. The market's savings demand remains strong, and with regulatory guidance and proactive transformation by insurance companies, liability costs are expected to gradually decrease, alleviating pressure from interest margin losses [1] Group 1: Profitability Indicators - The combined net profit of A-share listed insurance companies grew by 4.4% in the first half of 2025, with Q2 growth improving sequentially, primarily driven by increased investment income. Notably, New China Life Insurance saw a year-on-year increase of 34% due to greater elasticity in equity investments [1] - The net assets of five A-share insurance companies increased by 1.1% compared to the beginning of the year, while the embedded value (EV) grew by 5.7% [1] - Mid-term dividends have generally increased rapidly, with stable payout ratios; New China Life's dividends rose by 24% year-on-year, outpacing peers [1] Group 2: Life Insurance - New business value (NBV) maintained rapid growth, with significant contributions from the bancassurance channel. In Q2, new single premium growth improved sequentially, with over 90% of new business from Taiping being participating insurance [2] - The average NBV of listed insurance companies increased by 31% year-on-year, with notable growth from PICC Life and New China Life at 72% and 58%, respectively [2] - The average value rate of listed insurance companies improved by 4.3 percentage points, driven by factors such as the reduction of preset interest rates and the deepening of integrated operations [2] Group 3: Property Insurance - Property insurance premiums showed steady growth, with a 4% year-on-year increase in premiums for listed insurance companies, and Ping An recorded the highest growth rate at 7% [3] - The average combined cost ratio improved to 96.1%, a year-on-year improvement of 1.5 percentage points, attributed to reduced disaster claims and better expense management [3] - PICC achieved a combined cost ratio of 95.3%, marking the best level for the same period in nearly a decade [3] Group 4: Investment - The investment asset scale of the five listed insurance companies grew by 7.5% compared to the beginning of the year [4] - The average net investment yield for listed insurance companies decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining interest rates, while the total investment yield (excluding Taiping) increased by 0.1 percentage points, driven by a recovery in the stock market [4] - There was a significant increase in equity investments, with the average proportion of FVOCI stocks rising by 7.2 percentage points to approximately 41% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in its combined ratio (COR) and achieved high growth in both new business value (NBV) and profit for Q1 2025 [2][3] - The company’s property and casualty insurance segment saw a steady increase in premium income, with a notable rise in underwriting profit [3] - The life insurance segment's NBV increased by 31.5% year-on-year, attributed to a significant enhancement in NBV margin [4] - Investment income saw a substantial increase, with total investment income and fair value changes rising by 157.2% year-on-year [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1,565.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 128.49 billion, up 43.4% year-on-year [2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 4.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] Property and Casualty Insurance - The property and casualty insurance segment generated insurance service revenue of 1,207.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and underwriting profit of 66.53 billion, up 183.0% year-on-year [3] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 94.5%, a year-on-year optimization of 3.4 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in natural disaster claims [3] Life Insurance - The life insurance segment's NBV increased by 31.5% year-on-year, with first-year premium income for long-term insurance at 212.06 billion, down 12.7% year-on-year [4] - The health insurance segment showed an improvement in premium structure, with long-term first-year premium income of 99.88 billion, up 4.3% year-on-year [4] Investment Performance - The company optimized its asset allocation, leading to a significant increase in investment performance, with total investment income rising by 389.9% year-on-year to 122.18 billion [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its previous profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 6,595 billion, 7,126 billion, and 7,368 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits of 455 billion, 491 billion, and 529 billion respectively [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.03, 1.11, and 1.20 yuan [6]

Core Insights - China Life Insurance reported a net profit of 12.85 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.4%, aligning with expectations [1] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 94.5%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced disaster risks and effective cost management [2] - The investment income surged to 12.2 billion yuan, marking a 390% year-on-year increase, indicating strong investment performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.85 billion yuan, with property and casualty insurance net profit at 11.31 billion yuan, up 92.7% year-on-year [1] - Life and health insurance net profits were 3.65 billion yuan and 2.43 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -4.4% and +59.9% respectively [1] - The total premium income for property and casualty insurance was 180.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2] Group 2: Underwriting and Premium Growth - The COR for property and casualty insurance improved significantly, attributed to reduced disaster risks and enhanced expense management [2] - The premium growth was steady, with auto insurance premiums at 71.7 billion yuan and non-auto insurance premiums at 108.7 billion yuan, both showing positive year-on-year growth [2] - There was a notable divergence in growth rates among non-auto insurance segments, with health insurance growing by 6.5% while agricultural insurance declined by 4.1% [2] Group 3: Investment and Asset Management - The company's net assets increased to 279.3 billion yuan, up 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, supported by effective asset-liability matching [3] - The total investment return rate for property and casualty insurance improved to 1.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [3] - The solvency ratios for core and comprehensive solvency were 216.3% and 237.5%, respectively, indicating a strong capital position [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong buy recommendation, anticipating continued profit growth driven by improved COR and NBV [4] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 46.5 billion, 49.3 billion, and 51.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.4%, 6.0%, and 3.6% respectively [4] - The current closing price corresponds to dynamic P/B ratios of 1.08, 1.01, and 0.95 for 2025-2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][11]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) exceeded expectations with a growth of 35% year-on-year, driven by individual insurance and bancassurance channels [6][7]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 27.016 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.4% year-on-year, primarily impacted by fluctuations in the fair value of bonds and the consolidation of Ping An Health [6][9]. - The operating profit showed a stable performance with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% to 37.907 billion yuan [6]. Financial Performance Summary - As of March 31, 2025, the company's net asset per share was 51.61 yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 89.84% [3]. - The total share capital was 18.21 billion shares, with 10.763 billion shares circulating in A-shares and 7.448 billion in H-shares [3]. - The company's investment assets grew by 3.3% year-to-date to 5.92 trillion yuan, with a net investment return of 0.9% and a comprehensive investment return of 1.3% [8]. Business Segment Analysis - The individual insurance segment's NBV grew by 11.5% year-on-year, despite a 19.5% decline in new single premiums [7]. - The bancassurance channel saw a significant increase in NBV by 170.8% year-on-year, benefiting from a low base and increased industry concentration [7]. - The property and casualty insurance segment reported a premium income growth of 7.7% year-on-year, with a combined ratio (COR) improvement to 96.6% [8]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to 127.279 billion yuan, 140.233 billion yuan, and 162.904 billion yuan respectively [9][10]. - The report indicates that the company's closing price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) of 0.62x for 2025 [9].