| LPG早报 | 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/27 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | 丙烷CIF日 | CP预测合 | 山东烷基 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华南 | 山东醚后碳四 | 纸面进口利润 主力基差 | 本 | 同价 | 化油 | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | -274 | 296 | | | | | | 2026/02/13 | 4750 | 4467 | 4470 | 621 | 551 | 529 | 4460 | 7280 | -171 | 31 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views of the Report - The LPG futures market showed a volatile decline this week mainly due to the fall in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+30). The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB at 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP at 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost oscillated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China), refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct, and external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. Overall, the internal basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the situation of warehouse receipts needs to be monitored. The outer market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors are still crucial and need continuous attention [1] Summary According to the Catalog Daily Data - From February 4 to February 10, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil changed. The daily changes on February 10 were -15, 0, 20, 2, 2, 4, 80, 0 respectively for these items. The paper import profit decreased by 24, and the main basis decreased by 57 [1] Daily Views - On Tuesday, the 3 - 4 month spread rebounded, with the 3 - 4 month spread at -297 (+50) and the 4 - 5 month spread at 91 (+1). Warehouse receipts changed with Shanghai Yuchi +5 and Haiyu Petrochemical -175. LPG spot prices stabilized with a slight downward adjustment expected. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai Gaoqiao civil gas at 4150, with a basis of -122. Domestic spot prices were generally stable. The mainstream transaction price in East China was 4150 - 4800, and refineries shipped stably before the festival. Shandong civil gas prices continued to rise, with the mainstream price at 4400 - 4530. With the approaching Spring Festival, there was an expectation of a decline under increased supply. The mainstream price of ether - post carbon four rose, and the low - supply situation led to smooth sales [1] Weekly Views - The futures market oscillated down this week. The basis strengthened, the 3 - 4 month spread decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened. Freight rates rose, and the actual landed cost oscillated weakly. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity, ship arrivals, and refinery storage capacity decreased, while external sales increased. Chemical demand increased, and the PDH operating rate rose. The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. The internal basis is still weak, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival, the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the outer market is still tight in the short term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 5th, the LPG night - market followed the oil price decline. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 295, and the 03 basis was - 91 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas at 4,100). The FEI on the external market rose 4.75 dollars to 537.75, and the CP fell 0.25 dollars to 532.75. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 35 (Shanghai Yuchi + 35) [1] - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), the 03 - 04 month - spread was - 294 (-16), - 203 (-8). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4,418 (+46). There were 5,867 warehouse receipts (-31), with Haiyu Petrochemical decreasing by 31. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI month - spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB month - spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased; the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased [1] - The internal - external spread weakened significantly. The PG - FEI was 37.5 (-17.8), and the PG - CP was 59 (-8). Freight rates increased significantly due to North American cold snaps delaying loading operations and tight supply - demand, along with the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the recent tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB discounts were 19.25 (-16.75), - 15 (-35), 46.89 (-15.6). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (-11) [1] - The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53 pct). Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures. However, the poor downstream profit in China and pre - holiday inventory reduction actions result in weak support for the spot price. Currently, the internal basis is weak, and the month - spread valuation is neutral. Future attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the February cold snap in the US and the development of the Iranian situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data - From January 30th to February 5th, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as prices of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post - carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis showed different degrees of change [1] 3.2 Daily Viewpoint - On February 5th, the LPG night - market followed the oil price decline. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 295, the 03 basis was - 91 (using Shanghai civil gas at 4,100 for calculation). The FEI on the external market rose 4.75 dollars to 537.75, the CP fell 0.25 dollars to 532.75, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 35 (Shanghai Yuchi + 35) [1] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances, with changes in the 03 basis, 03 - 04 month - spread, and the price of the cheapest deliverable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 31. The February CP official price met expectations. There were changes in the FEI, CP, and MB month - spreads, the oil - gas ratio, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio [1] - The internal - external spread weakened significantly. Freight rates increased significantly. There were changes in propane discounts in different regions and the FEI - MOPJ spread. The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, and the PDH operating rate decreased. Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and there are differences in the support for futures and spot prices. The internal basis is weak, the month - spread valuation is neutral, the internal - external valuation is moderately high, and attention should be paid to relevant factors in the future [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly central value. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was -250 (-58). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 4340 (-50). There were 5977 lots of warehouse receipts (-241). The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB. The domestic and foreign PG - FEI reached 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP reached 69.6 (-8). The CIF discount for propane in East China, China was 77 (-2). The FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. Freight rates increased, with the US Gulf - Japan at 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was -27 (week - on - week +12). PDH profit was significantly repaired but still poor. Port inventory decreased by 4.9%, arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.66 pct, and external sales decreased by 0.19%. PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple device shutdowns in February (Juzhengyuan Phase II and Zhongjing Phase II), with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline. Overall, the domestic and foreign valuations were high; the expected supply - demand pattern of the external market weakened, as the impact of the US fog was expected to be small, and although the Middle East was tight in the short term, it would be loose later; the combustion demand would end in February, and the PDH operating rate would decline. The domestic valuation was neutral, and the 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads were in reverse arbitrage. Future attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From January 15 to January 21, 2026, the prices of LPG in South China decreased from 5045 to 4840, in East China from 4543 to 4467, and in Shandong remained at 4470. The CFR price of propane in South China decreased from 612 to 594, and the CIF price in Japan increased from 555 to 571. The CP forecast contract price decreased from 530 to 526. The price of Shandong ether - post carbon four decreased from 4380 to 4330, and the price of Shandong alkylate oil remained at 7130. The paper import profit and the main basis changed accordingly. The daily changes on January 21 were -60 for South China LPG, -6 for East China LPG, 0 for Shandong LPG, 18 for propane CIF Japan, -30 for Shandong ether - post carbon four, 0 for Shandong alkylate oil, and -21 for the main basis. [1] Daily Viewpoint - On Wednesday, the 02 - 03 spread was 78 (-14), the 03 - 04 spread was -273 (+4), and the 02 - 04 spread was -195 (-10). On Monday night at 9:30, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices reached 542.39 and 536.39 US dollars respectively, rising significantly. [1] Weekly Viewpoint - As mentioned in the core viewpoints above, the domestic market was affected by geopolitical factors, and various price, spread, inventory, and operating rate data changed, with corresponding expectations for the future market. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there are expectations of a slight increase in civil demand. The short - term driving force still has support. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes - On Wednesday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4424 (+32), in Shandong was 4370 (-80), and in South China was 4440 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4570 (+20). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 80 (-48), and the 01 - 02 monthly spread was 91 (+25). As of 21:00, FEI was 525.67 (+4.67) and CP was 517.67 (+7.67) US dollars per ton [1] Weekly Changes - The futures market fluctuated, with a basis of 143 (+232), 01 - 02 monthly spread of 79 (+3), and 03 - 04 monthly spread of - 211 (-19). There were 4611 lots of warehouse receipts (-200). Civil LPG prices rose, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB rose, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international prices weakened, with PG - CP dropping to 100 (-21) and PG - FEI to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 US dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories slightly increased (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PG main contract is running strongly. The basis is 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread is 93 (+21). The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4364 (-10), Shandong at 4440 (+60), and South China at 4460 (+10); ether - after carbon four is 4630 (+130). The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and the domestic chemical market is strong with the expectation of the civil market strengthening in the peak season, but the futures price is over - valued. Attention should be paid to the weather and the situation of cold snaps in the US [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4364 (+0), in Shandong was 4400 (+0), and in South China was 4390 (-70). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4670 (+40). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -28 (-42) and a 12 - 01 month spread of 82 (-12). FEI was 503 (+1) and CP was 483 (+2) dollars per ton [4]. Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis decreased by 101, and the 12 - 01 month spread increased by 21. The prices of the cheapest deliverable in different regions and ether - after carbon four changed. The outer - market paper goods rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month spread strengthened, and the internal - external price difference weakened. The premium strengthened, and the freight weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread decreased, the naphtha crack spread changed little, and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene recovered slightly, the profit of alkylation units worsened, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. Domestic production decreased slightly, arrivals were limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and ports destocked. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71). Overall, the domestic chemical market is strong, the civil market has the expectation of strengthening in the peak season, but the futures price is over - valued, and the international propane market pattern is loose [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. Although the spot supply pressure is high and the PG basis has dropped sharply and turned negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market may not decline significantly in the short - term [4]. - There is high inventory pressure and short - term supply pressure, but chemical demand provides support and combustion demand is expected to pick up. The PDH operating rate is 68.76% (-2.12pct), and enterprises are expected to increase production next week [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the prices of civil LPG showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. The price in East China was 4259 (-5), in Shandong 4250 (+50), and in South China 4400 (-20). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4390 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -76 (-39), and the November - December spread was 145 (-1). FEI increased significantly, and CP increased slightly, at 478 (+21) and 447 (+5) US dollars/ton respectively [4]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil LPG at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts [4]. - The external market prices dropped significantly. The FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and the CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, at 78 (+26) in South China. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5) [4]. - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with Zhongjing Phase II resuming production, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises are expected to increase production next week [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was -20 (-334), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The external market prices tumbled. FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, with South China at 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). PDH - to - propylene profit declined. Inventory pressure was high, with short - term supply pressure large, but supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II restored, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis fell sharply to negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, civil gas showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. In East China, it was 4264 (-74), in Shandong 4200 (+110), and in South China 4420 (-30). Ether - after carbon four was 4390 (-10). The lowest deliverable area was Shandong, with a basis of 49 (+197), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 151 (+9). FEI declined and CP fluctuated, at 465 (+2) and 440 (-2) US dollars/ton respectively [1]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly because of macro and geopolitical news. The basis decreased by 334 to -20, and the 11 - 12 monthly spread increased by 59 to 137. Domestic civil gas prices dropped substantially. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas with a price reduction of 250 to 4200; East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. External market prices dropped sharply. FEI and CP monthly spreads increased by 5 US dollars, reaching -10 and -4 respectively. The internal - external price differences PG - CP, PG - FEI, and FEI - CP all increased. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased by 26 to 78. Freight rates decreased significantly. FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open. PDH - to - propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, but there was support from chemical demand and an expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate decreased by 2.12 pct to 68.76%. Although spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis dropped sharply, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG main contract fluctuated upwards, mainly following the rise in oil prices [1]. - In the short - term, Shandong prices are firm; East China has high supply pressure and is expected to remain weak overall [1]. - For the external market, although there is a seasonal increase, under the expectation of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, it is expected to be generally weak with fluctuations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - On Monday, the low price in East China was 4363 yuan/ton (-30), Shandong was 4570 yuan/ton (-10), and South China was 4640 yuan/ton (-10). Ether - after carbon four was 4570 yuan/ton (-50). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 70 (-33), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 152 (+4) [1]. - FEI monthly spread dropped 1.5 to -10 US dollars, CP monthly spread dropped 1 to -14 US dollars. FEI and CP c1 decreased, reaching 541 (-7) and 540 (-5) US dollars respectively (as of 9:50 am) [1]. - The daily changes in prices showed that South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis had changes of -10, -30, -10, -1, -11, -1, -1, -50, -60, 6, -33 respectively [1]. Market Conditions - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4373 yuan/ton (-42), Shandong at 4570 yuan/ton (+40), and South China at 4640 yuan/ton (-10). The basis was 103 (+113), the 10 - 11 month spread was 148 (+83), and the 11 - 12 month spread was 79 (+19) [1]. - There were 14327 lots of warehouse receipts (+1353), with Yunda +2031 and Donghua -670. The external market prices were divergent. The FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (-4), the CP monthly spread was -13.5 US dollars (-2.5). The internal - external price differences PG - CP reached 56.7 (-23.3); PG - FEI reached 55.7 (-18). FEI - CP was 1 (-5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The AFEI discount was -13 (-3), and the CP South China arrival discount was 41 (-4) [1]. - Freight rates decreased slightly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 148 (-3) and the Middle East - Far East at 75 (-2). The FEI - MOPJ spread significantly widened to -57.5 (-18.5) [1]. Industry Operation - The PDH operating rate was 69.48% (+4.34 percentage points), with Quanzhou Guoheng and Zhongjing increasing their loads, and Zhenhua starting production at the end of the week; it is expected to rise next week [1]. - Before the holiday, upstream inventory was cleared, arrivals decreased; propane chemical demand increased, and combustion demand replenished inventory; factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories decreased [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG main contract oscillates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens and then strengthens to 70 (+59). The September - October spread is -721 (-212), and the October - November spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13,207 lots (+320). The official September CP price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The FEI, CP monthly spreads oscillate, the MB monthly spread strengthens, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The internal - external price difference oscillates. The US - Asia arbitrage window oscillates and closes. The port inventory decreases, the refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and the factory inventory increases but is overall controllable. The PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64 pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase its load, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). The combustion season is gradually ending, but the demand remains weak. The East China region, as the cheapest delivery area, is expected to have tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, with an overall stable and upward trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | MB Propane Spot | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylated Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/29 | 4620 | 4481 | 4540 | 580 | 541 | 69 | 515 | 4990 | 7820 | -133 | 170 | | 2025/09/01 | 4580 | 4486 | 4540 | 583 | 545 | - | 531 | 4900 | 7770 | -201 | 188 | | 2025/09/02 | 4540 | 4486 | 4560 | 590 | 550 | 72 | 540 | 4890 | 7790 | -297 | 119 | | 2025/09/03 | 4520 | 4486 | 4580 | 592 | 557 | 72 | 542 | 4890 | 7810 | -335 | 104 | | 2025/09/04 | 4540 | 4490 | 4580 | 585 | 550 | 71 | 542 | 4880 | 7790 | -259 | 172 | | Daily Change | 20 | 4 | 0 | -7 | -7 | -1 | 0 | -10 | -20 | 76 | 68 | On Thursday, the cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4490. FEI and CP weaken, PP weakens, the paper - making profit of FEI and CP for PP increases slightly, and the CP production cost is slightly lower than that of FEI. The PG market weakens significantly, and the October - November spread is 71 (+1). The US - Far East arbitrage window opens [1]. Weekly Viewpoint The PG main contract oscillates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens and then strengthens to 70 (+59). The September - October spread is -721 (-212), and the October - November spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13,207 lots (+320), with Qingdao Yunda - 55, Wuzhongda - 65, and Donghua +440. The official September CP price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The FEI, CP monthly spreads oscillate, the MB monthly spread strengthens, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The internal - external price difference oscillates, PG - CP reaches 106, and PG - FEI reaches 85. FEI - CP reaches 21.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window oscillates and closes. AFEI's offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China arrival discount is 65 (+8). The freight rate remains flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. FEI - MOPJ expands to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. The PDH spot profit changes little, and the paper profit oscillates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. The MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, the port inventory decreases, the refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and the factory inventory increases but is overall controllable. The PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64 pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase its load, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). The combustion season is gradually ending, but the demand remains weak. The East China region, as the cheapest delivery area, is expected to have tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, with an overall stable and upward trend [1].