Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there are expectations of a slight increase in civil demand. The short - term driving force still has support. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes - On Wednesday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4424 (+32), in Shandong was 4370 (-80), and in South China was 4440 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4570 (+20). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 80 (-48), and the 01 - 02 monthly spread was 91 (+25). As of 21:00, FEI was 525.67 (+4.67) and CP was 517.67 (+7.67) US dollars per ton [1] Weekly Changes - The futures market fluctuated, with a basis of 143 (+232), 01 - 02 monthly spread of 79 (+3), and 03 - 04 monthly spread of - 211 (-19). There were 4611 lots of warehouse receipts (-200). Civil LPG prices rose, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB rose, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international prices weakened, with PG - CP dropping to 100 (-21) and PG - FEI to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 US dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories slightly increased (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PG main contract is running strongly. The basis is 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread is 93 (+21). The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4364 (-10), Shandong at 4440 (+60), and South China at 4460 (+10); ether - after carbon four is 4630 (+130). The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and the domestic chemical market is strong with the expectation of the civil market strengthening in the peak season, but the futures price is over - valued. Attention should be paid to the weather and the situation of cold snaps in the US [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4364 (+0), in Shandong was 4400 (+0), and in South China was 4390 (-70). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4670 (+40). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -28 (-42) and a 12 - 01 month spread of 82 (-12). FEI was 503 (+1) and CP was 483 (+2) dollars per ton [4]. Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis decreased by 101, and the 12 - 01 month spread increased by 21. The prices of the cheapest deliverable in different regions and ether - after carbon four changed. The outer - market paper goods rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month spread strengthened, and the internal - external price difference weakened. The premium strengthened, and the freight weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread decreased, the naphtha crack spread changed little, and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene recovered slightly, the profit of alkylation units worsened, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. Domestic production decreased slightly, arrivals were limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and ports destocked. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71). Overall, the domestic chemical market is strong, the civil market has the expectation of strengthening in the peak season, but the futures price is over - valued, and the international propane market pattern is loose [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. Although the spot supply pressure is high and the PG basis has dropped sharply and turned negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market may not decline significantly in the short - term [4]. - There is high inventory pressure and short - term supply pressure, but chemical demand provides support and combustion demand is expected to pick up. The PDH operating rate is 68.76% (-2.12pct), and enterprises are expected to increase production next week [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the prices of civil LPG showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. The price in East China was 4259 (-5), in Shandong 4250 (+50), and in South China 4400 (-20). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4390 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -76 (-39), and the November - December spread was 145 (-1). FEI increased significantly, and CP increased slightly, at 478 (+21) and 447 (+5) US dollars/ton respectively [4]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil LPG at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts [4]. - The external market prices dropped significantly. The FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and the CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, at 78 (+26) in South China. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5) [4]. - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with Zhongjing Phase II resuming production, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises are expected to increase production next week [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was -20 (-334), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The external market prices tumbled. FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, with South China at 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). PDH - to - propylene profit declined. Inventory pressure was high, with short - term supply pressure large, but supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II restored, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis fell sharply to negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, civil gas showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. In East China, it was 4264 (-74), in Shandong 4200 (+110), and in South China 4420 (-30). Ether - after carbon four was 4390 (-10). The lowest deliverable area was Shandong, with a basis of 49 (+197), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 151 (+9). FEI declined and CP fluctuated, at 465 (+2) and 440 (-2) US dollars/ton respectively [1]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly because of macro and geopolitical news. The basis decreased by 334 to -20, and the 11 - 12 monthly spread increased by 59 to 137. Domestic civil gas prices dropped substantially. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas with a price reduction of 250 to 4200; East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. External market prices dropped sharply. FEI and CP monthly spreads increased by 5 US dollars, reaching -10 and -4 respectively. The internal - external price differences PG - CP, PG - FEI, and FEI - CP all increased. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased by 26 to 78. Freight rates decreased significantly. FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open. PDH - to - propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, but there was support from chemical demand and an expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate decreased by 2.12 pct to 68.76%. Although spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis dropped sharply, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG main contract fluctuated upwards, mainly following the rise in oil prices [1]. - In the short - term, Shandong prices are firm; East China has high supply pressure and is expected to remain weak overall [1]. - For the external market, although there is a seasonal increase, under the expectation of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, it is expected to be generally weak with fluctuations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - On Monday, the low price in East China was 4363 yuan/ton (-30), Shandong was 4570 yuan/ton (-10), and South China was 4640 yuan/ton (-10). Ether - after carbon four was 4570 yuan/ton (-50). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 70 (-33), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 152 (+4) [1]. - FEI monthly spread dropped 1.5 to -10 US dollars, CP monthly spread dropped 1 to -14 US dollars. FEI and CP c1 decreased, reaching 541 (-7) and 540 (-5) US dollars respectively (as of 9:50 am) [1]. - The daily changes in prices showed that South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis had changes of -10, -30, -10, -1, -11, -1, -1, -50, -60, 6, -33 respectively [1]. Market Conditions - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4373 yuan/ton (-42), Shandong at 4570 yuan/ton (+40), and South China at 4640 yuan/ton (-10). The basis was 103 (+113), the 10 - 11 month spread was 148 (+83), and the 11 - 12 month spread was 79 (+19) [1]. - There were 14327 lots of warehouse receipts (+1353), with Yunda +2031 and Donghua -670. The external market prices were divergent. The FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (-4), the CP monthly spread was -13.5 US dollars (-2.5). The internal - external price differences PG - CP reached 56.7 (-23.3); PG - FEI reached 55.7 (-18). FEI - CP was 1 (-5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The AFEI discount was -13 (-3), and the CP South China arrival discount was 41 (-4) [1]. - Freight rates decreased slightly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 148 (-3) and the Middle East - Far East at 75 (-2). The FEI - MOPJ spread significantly widened to -57.5 (-18.5) [1]. Industry Operation - The PDH operating rate was 69.48% (+4.34 percentage points), with Quanzhou Guoheng and Zhongjing increasing their loads, and Zhenhua starting production at the end of the week; it is expected to rise next week [1]. - Before the holiday, upstream inventory was cleared, arrivals decreased; propane chemical demand increased, and combustion demand replenished inventory; factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories decreased [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG main contract oscillates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens and then strengthens to 70 (+59). The September - October spread is -721 (-212), and the October - November spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13,207 lots (+320). The official September CP price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The FEI, CP monthly spreads oscillate, the MB monthly spread strengthens, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The internal - external price difference oscillates. The US - Asia arbitrage window oscillates and closes. The port inventory decreases, the refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and the factory inventory increases but is overall controllable. The PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64 pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase its load, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). The combustion season is gradually ending, but the demand remains weak. The East China region, as the cheapest delivery area, is expected to have tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, with an overall stable and upward trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | MB Propane Spot | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylated Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/29 | 4620 | 4481 | 4540 | 580 | 541 | 69 | 515 | 4990 | 7820 | -133 | 170 | | 2025/09/01 | 4580 | 4486 | 4540 | 583 | 545 | - | 531 | 4900 | 7770 | -201 | 188 | | 2025/09/02 | 4540 | 4486 | 4560 | 590 | 550 | 72 | 540 | 4890 | 7790 | -297 | 119 | | 2025/09/03 | 4520 | 4486 | 4580 | 592 | 557 | 72 | 542 | 4890 | 7810 | -335 | 104 | | 2025/09/04 | 4540 | 4490 | 4580 | 585 | 550 | 71 | 542 | 4880 | 7790 | -259 | 172 | | Daily Change | 20 | 4 | 0 | -7 | -7 | -1 | 0 | -10 | -20 | 76 | 68 | On Thursday, the cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4490. FEI and CP weaken, PP weakens, the paper - making profit of FEI and CP for PP increases slightly, and the CP production cost is slightly lower than that of FEI. The PG market weakens significantly, and the October - November spread is 71 (+1). The US - Far East arbitrage window opens [1]. Weekly Viewpoint The PG main contract oscillates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens and then strengthens to 70 (+59). The September - October spread is -721 (-212), and the October - November spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13,207 lots (+320), with Qingdao Yunda - 55, Wuzhongda - 65, and Donghua +440. The official September CP price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The FEI, CP monthly spreads oscillate, the MB monthly spread strengthens, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The internal - external price difference oscillates, PG - CP reaches 106, and PG - FEI reaches 85. FEI - CP reaches 21.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window oscillates and closes. AFEI's offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China arrival discount is 65 (+8). The freight rate remains flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. FEI - MOPJ expands to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. The PDH spot profit changes little, and the paper profit oscillates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. The MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, the port inventory decreases, the refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and the factory inventory increases but is overall controllable. The PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64 pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase its load, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). The combustion season is gradually ending, but the demand remains weak. The East China region, as the cheapest delivery area, is expected to have tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, with an overall stable and upward trend [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall PG market is in a weak and volatile state, with small changes in the basis (349), a slight strengthening of the 8 - 9 month spread (97), and the cheapest deliverable being East China civil gas at 4529. The import cost has dropped significantly, the FEI offshore premium has declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival premium has strengthened. The overseas market month spread has weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. The domestic - foreign price difference has strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Fundamentally, domestic port inventories, factory inventories, and external sales volumes are basically flat. PDH operating rates have dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct) with improved profits, and it is expected that PDH operating rates will increase slightly in the future. The alkylation operating rate remains flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. - Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose (4610). With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate. East China civil gas declined (4529), with an average overall trading atmosphere. Terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand. South China civil gas fluctuated downward (4660) mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1]. - Currently, prices have dropped to a relatively low level. Although chemical demand is high, high temperatures and weak terminal demand will suppress subsequent price increases [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Price Changes**: From July 2 - 8, 2025, South China LPG decreased from 4690 to 4630, East China LPG decreased from 4582 to 4494, and Shandong LPG remained at 4590 on July 8. Propane CFR South China had some fluctuations, and propane CIF Japan increased from 517 to 551. MB propane spot increased from 73 to 75, and CP forecast contract price increased from 556 to 561. The paper import profit showed a downward trend, and the main contract basis decreased by 16 on July 8 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 08 - 09 spread of PG was 96 at one point and then the 8 - 9 spread strengthened slightly to 97. PG - CP reached 22.5 (+26.5), FEI - CP reached - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Industry Operation - **PDH**: The PDH operating rate dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct), and profits improved. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will increase slightly in the future [1]. - **Alkylation**: The alkylation operating rate remained flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. Regional Market Analysis - **Shandong**: Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose to 4610. With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate [1]. - **East China**: East China civil gas declined to 4529. The overall trading atmosphere was average, and terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand [1]. - **South China**: South China civil gas fluctuated downward to 4660 mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Last week, the overall civil gas market was weak. Shandong's civil gas rose due to chemical demand support, while ether - after carbon four declined. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4449. The PG futures market oscillated and trended stronger. The basis of the 07 contract weakened to 351, and the monthly spread strengthened significantly. Externally, FEI and MB were basically flat, CP declined, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external price difference strengthened, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed, and freight rates rose slightly. [1] - In terms of inter - variety spreads, the production margin of PDH improved but remained poor. The production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylated oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little. [1] - Fundamentally, port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and Shandong's factory inventories decreased due to chemical demand support. Arrivals increased (mainly in South China), and external sales increased significantly. It is expected that external sales will continue to increase and arrivals will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short term. The PDH operating rate was basically flat and is expected to increase next week (the first - phase PDH of Qingdao Jinneng may resume). Subsequently, the demand for alkylated oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand. Next week, several MTBE plants have plans to start production, so the demand for C4 is expected to increase. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline. In addition, the number of registered warrants decreased by 565 to 9304 lots. Overall, the fundamentals remain weak. Shandong's chemical demand provides some support, but there is significant supply pressure in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Directory Daily Changes - In the civil gas market, Shandong remained stable at 4620, East China at 4492, and South China at 4630. Ether - after carbon four remained stable at 4830. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4492. The PP price increased, while the profit of PP production from FEI and CP decreased. The PG futures market oscillated and trended upward. The basis of the 07 contract decreased by 11 to 351, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread decreased by 9 to 201. The US - Far East arbitrage window closed. [1] - The daily changes in prices are as follows: propane CFR South China increased by 2 to 595, propane CIF Japan increased by 7 to 561, MB propane spot increased by 1 to 78, CP forecast contract price increased by 4 to 587, and alkylated oil in Shandong increased by 30 to 7750. The paper import profit decreased by 4 to - 268, and the main basis decreased by 11. Other prices remained stable. [1] Weekly View - Last week, the civil gas market was generally weak. Shandong's civil gas rose due to chemical demand support, while ether - after carbon four declined. The PG futures market oscillated and trended stronger. The basis of the 07 contract weakened, and the monthly spread strengthened significantly. Externally, FEI and MB were basically flat, CP declined, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external price difference strengthened, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed, and freight rates rose slightly. [1] - In terms of inter - variety spreads, the production margin of PDH improved but remained poor. The production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylated oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little. [1] - Fundamentally, port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and Shandong's factory inventories decreased due to chemical demand support. Arrivals increased (mainly in South China), and external sales increased significantly. It is expected that external sales will continue to increase and arrivals will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short term. The PDH operating rate was basically flat and is expected to increase next week (the first - phase PDH of Qingdao Jinneng may resume). Subsequently, the demand for alkylated oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand. Next week, several MTBE plants have plans to start production, so the demand for C4 is expected to increase. With rising temperatures, combustion demand is expected to decline. In addition, the number of registered warrants decreased by 565 to 9304 lots. Overall, the fundamentals remain weak. Shandong's chemical demand provides some support, but there is significant supply pressure in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish. [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the LPG market remain weak. Although the chemical demand in Shandong provides some support, there is significant supply pressure in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish [1]. - It is expected that the external release volume will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, with the PDH operating rate expected to rise next week. The demand for alkylation oil is expected to increase with the recovery of gasoline demand, and the demand for C4 is expected to increase due to the planned start - up of multiple MTBE plants next week. Combustion demand is expected to decline as the temperature rises [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Daily Changes - In terms of civil gas, the price in Shandong remained stable at 4620, in East China increased by 1 to 4492, and in South China increased by 40 to 4630. The price of ether - after carbon four increased by 20 to 4830. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4492 [1]. - The PP price rose, and the profits of PP production from FEI and CP increased. The PG futures price fluctuated upwards. The basis of the 07 contract decreased by 10 to 362, and the spread between the 07 - 09 contracts increased by 7 to 210. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East was closed [1]. Weekly Views - Last week, the overall civil gas market was weak. Supported by chemical demand, the price in Shandong increased, while the price of ether - after carbon four decreased. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4449 [1]. - The PG futures price fluctuated strongly. The basis of the 07 contract weakened to 351, and the spread between contracts strengthened significantly. In the external market, FEI and MB were basically the same, and CP declined; the oil - gas ratio increased. The internal - external price difference strengthened, especially the PG - CP [1]. - The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed, and freight rates increased slightly. Among different product spreads, the production margin of PDH improved but remained poor; the production profit of FEI was higher than that of PP. The profitability of alkylation oil increased, the profit of gas fractionation and etherification changed little, and the profit of isomerization and etherification increased. The FEI - MOPJ decreased, and the naphtha crack spread changed little [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, port inventories increased slightly, and terminals actively offered discounts. Factory inventories increased, and the factory inventories in Shandong decreased due to chemical demand. The arrival volume increased (mainly in South China), and the external release volume increased significantly [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9304 lots (- 565) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG supply is expected to gradually increase, chemical demand is expected to recover, and combustion demand will continue to decline. Overall, the LPG market may continue its oscillating downward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong remained stable at 4490, in East China decreased by 58 to 4523, and in South China remained stable at 4840. For imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 11 to 4979, and in South China increased by 10 to 4960. The price of etherified C4 remained stable at 4740. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4490. The PG futures market showed weak performance, with the basis of the 06 contract strengthening to 309, the 06 - 07 monthly spread remaining unchanged at 54, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread slightly weakening to 130. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East is closed [1]. 3.2 Weekly Changes - Last week, domestic civil gas prices declined significantly, with prices in South China at 4920 (-3.3%), East China at 4906 (-0.7%), Shandong at 4570 (-4.8%), and Shandong etherified C4 at 4520 (-5.8%). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong etherified C4. The center of gravity of the PG futures market moved slightly downward. The basis of the 06 contract was 256 (-187), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 81 (-23), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 76 (-8). After the tariff easing, the overseas prices increased, with MB at 407 (+23), FEI at 544 (+22.8), and CP slightly rising to 584 (+5.5). The discount of June CP cargo decreased by nearly half, and the FEI discount returned to single - digit positive. The domestic - foreign price difference decreased significantly. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East increased slightly, reaching 117 (+7) and 65 (+7) respectively [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, high arrival volumes and little change in demand led to inventory accumulation at ports, while factory inventories remained basically unchanged. The domestic LPG commercial volume was 504,100 tons (+4.09%), and the expected increase in commercial volume in the next three weeks is expected to decrease. In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate declined to 57.98% (-1.61), but production margins recovered, and the PDH operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week. The alkylation operating rate was 39.87% (-2.37), the commercial volume was 18,450 (-1,100), and the profit increased significantly to 267 yuan/ton (+1113%), with the operating rate expected to increase slightly next week. Crude oil rebound pushed MTBE prices up from a decline, but due to limited supply, stable exports, manufacturers' intention to hold prices, and increased downstream resistance, MTBE prices are expected to decline slightly. In terms of combustion demand, as the temperature rises, it is expected to decline [1].