Report Industry Investment Rating - Palm oil: Volatile; Rapeseed oil: Volatile; Soybean oil: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soaring international oil prices triggered by the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran have led to a significant increase in the oil and fat market. The underlying reasons for the rise of the three major domestic oils and fats are different, and their future trends depend on the development of the Iranian situation. If the conflict persists, palm oil may continue to rise, rapeseed oil's near - month contracts will remain strong, and soybean oil will also show an upward trend. If the conflict eases, the oil and fat market will experience a significant correction [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Geopolitical Conflict Intensifies, Driving a Sharp Rise in the Oil and Fat Market - After the US and Israel announced an attack on Iran, international oil and diesel prices soared, leading the oil and fat market to start making up for the increase from the second half of last week. From March 5th to March 9th, the palm oil 05 contract rose 898 points, the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 763 points, and the soybean oil 05 contract rose 618 points [11] - **POGO spread significantly shrank, and biodiesel blending profit turned positive**: The continuous sharp rise in diesel prices led to a rapid shrinkage and negative turn of the POGO price in a short period. The price transmission mechanism from diesel to palm oil is complex, and it takes time for the market to react. The soaring diesel price has increased the possibility of Indonesia significantly raising the diesel reference price in April, which will boost the demand for palm oil. The current situation also increases the likelihood of Indonesia advancing the B50 plan, which is expected to significantly reduce palm oil inventory in 2026 [12][13][18] - **The obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns about the domestic rapeseed oil supply**: After China imposed a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed in March, the import profit of Canadian rapeseed is average. Before May, China's rapeseed oil supply mainly relies on Russian and UAE rapeseed oil. However, due to the conflict, the UAE rapeseed oil cannot be transported to China, which will further tighten the supply and accelerate the destocking process [19][20] 2. Outlook for the Future Prices of Oils and Fats - The short - term core factor for the future trend of the oil and fat market is the development of the Iranian situation. For palm oil, the diesel price is a key influencing factor. As long as the diesel price does not fall significantly below $1000 per ton, palm oil prices will have obvious bottom support. For rapeseed oil, the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial. The improvement of the situation in the Strait can ease the tight supply expectation. Soybean oil is less affected by diesel prices and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but it will also be influenced by factors such as the strengthening of US soybean oil and rising freight rates, and is expected to remain strong before the conflict eases [28][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the upward rhythm of palm oil needs the realization of production - side drivers, and there is a risk of short - term decline when it reaches 9,400. In the long - term, the direction is not clear, and short - term operations are recommended. For soybean oil, it is mainly in high - level shock adjustment, following palm oil and crude oil [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Views and Logic - **Palm Oil**: After the MPOB report at the beginning of the month fulfilled the negative news, there were few new negative factors in the fundamentals. Driven by energy and pre - holiday topic speculation, the 05 contract rose 3.63% last week, but faced resistance at the previous high [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lacking South American weather speculation, the upward drive of US soybeans was limited. It mainly followed the upward trend of the oil and fat sector, and the 05 contract rose 2.35% last week [1]. This Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - **Positive Factors**: After nearly two months of bottom - building, palm oil has a short - term smooth upward window. Factors include macro funds' attention to commodity cycle rotation, digestion of B50's pessimistic sentiment, good de - stocking process implied by high - frequency production and export data in Malaysia, strong expectation of Indonesia's tax increase, pre - Ramadan stocking, rising energy prices, and the approaching implementation of the US biodiesel policy [2]. - **Negative Factors**: Although the price increase with import profit in China implies no actual improvement in fundamentals, and China has almost completed February's procurement, domestic inventory will reach a high level. New trend - like negative news may appear if the production in January - February remains above 1.6 million and 1.5 million tons respectively. After Ramadan, there may be a rapid production increase period, and the low - priced South American soybean oil in April - May will impact palm oil demand [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the first quarter, the gene for going long on palm oil is strong before new negative news appears, but pay attention to the risk of decline due to previous high pressure and the ebb of pre - holiday macro sentiment. In the long - term, when the direction is unclear, short - term operations are mainly based on energy prices and news [2][4]. Soybean Oil - **Policy Impact**: The Trump administration is promoting the 2026 biofuel policy, which is expected to be finalized in early March. The volume requirement for D4 biodiesel is considered to be between 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons, and the plan to punish the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials may be abandoned. This is positive for US soybean oil, with the expected annual industrial demand rising from 7 million tons to 8 - 9 million tons, and the price having the potential to reach 56 - 60 cents, but note that the EPA's message may change [5]. - **Supply Situation**: Brazilian soybeans are growing well, while the core production areas in Argentina are dry. China's customs may accelerate the release of soybeans in the first quarter, and the state - reserve soybean auction is progressing well, but the slow shipment from the US and Brazil may lead to a shortage of soybean arrivals in March - April, supporting the domestic soybean spot and month - spread to be strong in shock. However, the rapid inventory accumulation of domestic palm oil will suppress the upward space of the month - spread. Unilaterally, soybean oil is mainly in high - level shock adjustment following palm oil and crude oil [5]. Disk Basic Market Data - **Price and Fluctuation**: The main continuous contract of palm oil closed at 9,240 yuan/ton, up 3.63%; the main continuous contract of soybean oil closed at 8,282 yuan/ton, up 2.35%; the main continuous contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,380 yuan/ton, up 4.47%. The main continuous contract of Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,229 ringgit/ton, up 1.32%, and the main continuous contract of CBOT soybean oil closed at 53.54 cents/pound, down 0.72% [8]. - **Volume and Position**: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all changed to varying degrees [8]. - **Spread and Warehouse Receipt**: The spreads of different varieties and contracts showed different trends, and the number of warehouse receipts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [8]. Core Data of Oil and Fat Fundamentals - **Production and Inventory**: Malaysia's palm oil production in January - February is in line with market expectations, and the inventory is expected to decline. Indonesia's year - end inventory is expected to return to a neutral - to - wide level. The India - Malaysia price difference has rapidly narrowed recently [10][11][12]. - **Export and Price Difference**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from January 1 - 25 increased by 9.97% compared with the same period last month. The POGO price difference is almost flat [12]. - **Other Data**: The prices of North Sumatra fruit bunches have stabilized and rebounded, and Indonesia's refining profit has declined from a high level. India's palm oil import profit has improved but is still lower than that of sunflower oil, and the India - Malaysia CNF price difference of soybean and palm oil has declined [12][13].