6.英大证券宏观评论：汽车类消费增速领 先石油及制品类，尚需进一步推出提振房 地产投资增速的政策（20250528） 英大证券证券研究报告 首席经济学家：郑后成 执业证书编号：S0990521090001 电话：0755-83008511 邮箱：houchengzheng@163.com 1.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国 CPI 同比大概率高于 2025 年（20251124） 2.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国外汇储 备大概率在3.3万亿美元基础上稳步上行 （20251110） 3.英大证券宏观评论：高水平科技引领发 展新质生产力，明后两年我国 GDP 增速 预期目标或均为"5.0%左右"（20251030） 4.英大证券宏观评论："适时加力"落在 4 季度概率大于 3 季度，中期我国资本市 场还将保持"回稳向好"势头（20250807） 5.英大证券宏观评论："猪油"共振向下 是 5 月 CPI 当月同比承压主因，6 月我国 PPI 当 月 同 比 大 概 率 还 将 低 位 徘 徊 （20250619） 7.英大证券宏观评论：4 月我国 PPI 同比 与美国 CPI 同比大概率双双下行，美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.34 trillion in October, marking an increase of $4.685 billion from the previous value, remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months and above $3.2 trillion for 24 months, the highest level since December 2015 [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves Overview - Foreign exchange reserves are crucial for international payments and are held by central banks and government institutions, enhancing the ability to repay short-term foreign debts and maintain economic security [1] - The sources of China's foreign exchange reserves include trade surplus, foreign direct investment (FDI), and capital flows from international investors purchasing Chinese financial assets [2] Group 2: Trade Surplus and FDI - China's trade surplus is expected to continue expanding, driven by the relative strength of global and domestic economies, with projections indicating a record high by 2026 [3] - FDI is influenced by the profitability of industrial enterprises in China, with historical trends showing that FDI growth aligns with the performance of industrial profits [3] Group 3: Capital Flows and PPI - The growth of industrial profits positively impacts the A-share market, attracting overseas financial capital, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, which is expected to support industrial profit growth and further attract capital inflows [3] Group 4: Valuation and Relative Value Changes - As of Q2 2025, the composition of global foreign exchange reserves shows that the U.S. dollar accounts for 56.33%, with China's reserves primarily in U.S. dollar assets, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to decline, which would increase the value of U.S. bonds and positively impact China's foreign exchange reserves [5] Group 5: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index is expected to decline in 2026, which would raise the dollar value of non-dollar assets and positively influence China's trade surplus and capital inflows [6][7] - The relationship between the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields indicates that a decline in yields will likely lead to a decrease in the dollar index, further supporting China's foreign exchange reserves [7] Group 6: Future Projections and Implications - By 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves are projected to steadily increase from the current $3.3 trillion, supported by both absolute scale and relative value changes [8] - This increase will enhance China's ability to repay short-term foreign debts and stabilize the renminbi exchange rate, contributing to financial stability in the A-share market [8]