专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 英大证券首席经济学家郑后成出席并演讲。 郑后成认为，2026年A股大盘面临支撑，年内高点大概率位于下半年。 哪些板块值得关注？郑后成指出，周期板块要给予关注。因为A股大盘的根本性上行、快速上行，取决 于周期股，而非科技股。只有周期股大幅拉升，A股大盘才具备上行的坚实基础。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：王翔 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 英大证券首席经济学家郑后成出席并演讲。 郑后成认为，2026年A股大盘面临支撑，年内高点大概率位于下半年。 哪些板块值得关注？郑后成指出，周期板块要给予关注。因为A股大盘的根本性 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - CPI in China is likely to be higher in 2026 compared to 2025[1] - PPI in China is expected to show an upward trend and likely turn positive in 2026[12] - The GDP growth target for China in the next two years is around 5.0%[3] Group 2: Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to face support in 2026, with the annual high likely above 4000 points, particularly in the second half of the year[2][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen significant fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, influenced by external factors and Fed interest rate expectations[5][8] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Currency - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates in 2026, providing effective support for the A-share market[10] - The Chinese Yuan is expected to appreciate in 2026, bringing in additional capital for the A-share market[15]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple fund companies are launching index-enhanced funds linked to major A-share indices, indicating a growing interest in equity market investments amid recent strong performance of these indices [1] Fund Launches - Guotai Junan Fund announced the launch of the Guotai Junan Shanghai Composite Index Enhanced Fund on October 22, with a maximum initial fundraising limit of 8 billion [1] - Anxin Fund announced the launch of the Anxin ChiNext Index Enhanced Fund on October 13 [1] - Invesco Great Wall Fund reported that the Invesco Great Wall Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index Enhanced Fund was established on September 18, raising a total of 1.516 billion [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech Innovation Index have recently shown strong performance, with all three indices reaching significant intraday highs on September 18 [1] - On September 18, the Shanghai Composite Index approached 3,900 points, the ChiNext Index surpassed 3,160 points, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index neared 1,700 points [1] Market Outlook - Guotai Junan Fund maintains a long-term optimistic view on the domestic equity market, focusing on investment opportunities in technology and anti-involution sectors, with expectations of significant profit growth in the manufacturing sector [1] - Invesco Great Wall Fund acknowledges the strong performance of the equity market and anticipates potential volatility due to profit-taking after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but remains optimistic about the medium-term benefits for RMB assets and the strengthening trend of overseas capital inflow [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rally today, with a broad-based increase across the market, creating an active trading atmosphere [1] - The main index attempted to breach the 3400-point mark, raising questions about whether a short-term peak has been reached [1] Sector Performance - The securities sector was a major driver of the market's upward movement, benefiting from weekend news and possibly strategic actions by major players [3] - The securities sector aimed to achieve three objectives: to challenge the 3400-point mark, to offset the negative impact from the declining banking sector, and to create a market rally [3][4] - The banking sector showed weakness, with a slight drop after 10 AM, contributing to the overall market dynamics [3] Market Dynamics - The current market trend resembles a mechanical pattern, similar to the eight consecutive days of gains observed from April 11 to April 22, indicating a potential end to the rally [4] - The trading volume has been unstable, with significant fluctuations observed, which is not typical for a healthy market [9][10] - Investors are becoming more cautious, as a lack of consistent trading volume may deter them from pursuing further investments [10] Short-term Outlook - The market is likely to have reached a short-term peak, with the morning high of 3402 points potentially marking the end of the current upward trend [6][7] - The afternoon trading session is expected to show a slight upward movement, but the sustainability of this trend will depend on the performance of the securities and banking sectors [11]