V i e w p o i n t | 30 Jun 2025 01:13:46 ET │ 10 pages China Economics Steady PMIs Suggest Steady Growth CITI'S TAKE Both mfg. and non-mfg. PMIs came in better than expected in June, pointing to still-on-track growth momentum. Our high-frequency trackers also indicate that China's exports to the US rebounded in June and its total monthly exports likely continued to growth. On the other hand, domestic demand like property sales could be seeing policy impact fading. The divergent recovery is set to extend int ...

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 May 11, 2025 09:41 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Growth Pain Beneath the Surface Related reports: Growth Pain Beneath the Surface (9 May 2025) Direct Tariff Impact Mitigated by Rerouting (9 May 2025) For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. M Possible ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Politburo has pledged to coordinate domestic policy and implement existing policies more aggressively, including faster issuance of government bonds and potential cuts to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates [3] - Real GDP growth is projected to soften, with 2Q real GDP tracking at less than 4.5% year-on-year [4] - Persistent deflationary pressures are noted, with a significant decline in container throughput to the US due to tariffs [7][8] - Household sentiment regarding consumption is weakening, driven by concerns over job security and salary amidst US tariff hikes [12] - The property market sentiment has cooled, with increased expectations of price declines and a rise in eager sellers [16] Policy Measures - The report outlines specific measures such as unemployment insurance rebates to exporters, a new relending facility for service consumption, and increased funding support for consumer trade-in programs [3] - A supplementary fiscal package of RMB 1-1.5 trillion is expected in the second half of 2025, alongside enhanced infrastructure and tech investment support [40] - The government is expected to implement a consumption-focused fiscal package of RMB 10 trillion over the next two years [49] Economic Indicators - The report indicates that 36% of the 2025 government bond quota has been utilized, compared to an average of 20% in the past five years [44] - Local government special refinancing bond net issuance is reported at RMB 1.5 trillion out of a total of RMB 2 trillion for local government debt swaps [47] - The US weighted average tariffs on China's exports are projected to remain high, with trade-weighted tariff hikes reduced to 34% with exemptions [22][24]

April 16, 2025 04:54 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Growth to Soften Meaningfully in Q2-Q3 Key Takeaways Strong 1Q on policy front-loading: Key drivers for 1Q growth have been (1) strong infrastructure capex on front-loaded govt bond issuance; and (2) robust sales of consumer goods in trade-in program. Manufacturing capex also edged up in March, likely reflecting revived tech animal spirit. These help offset the moderating exports on fading front-loading and Fentanyl-related tariffs. That said, defla ...