Market Trends & Trade - Trade deals and talks should matter a lot to the macro market, but much of it is already priced in [2] - The market is pricing in the absolute best-case scenario regarding a potential 90-day reprieve on trade issues [3] - The market yawned at the EU deal, indicating it was already expected [4] Risk Assessment & Market Sentiment - The market has shifted from complete risk aversion to complete risk acceptance in a matter of weeks [6] - There are signs of real froth in the market, with some describing it as a "flight to crap" [6] - The market is seeing levels similar to 2021 when money was free, which is worrisome [11] - "Flight to crap" is the opposite of "flight to quality," where investors seek maximum risk [8][9] Meme Stocks & Speculative Trading - Meme stocks and companies with no earnings are seeing bids, and SPACs are back [5] - Individuals were buying the market in April, and risky trades have worked for them [10] - The activity surrounding meme stocks is more akin to gambling than investing [12] - Options activity often precedes social media hype for meme stocks, with peaks occurring shortly after the market opens [13] Company Specific Concerns - Kohl's bonds are trading around $0.70 on the dollar, indicating potential troubles ahead [14]

Everybody's pretty comfortable right now with what they see in front of them. That doesn't seem to be any significant tail risk that we should be factoring into our thinking this morning. Iran is not likely to respond in a significant way that's going to disrupt global trade.Is that the right way of looking at this. I think it is the correct way to trade this until we get a fresh development. I don't think markets experts should pretend to be geopolitical experts.And, you know, all macro traders become armc ...

昨天的标题又起大了，前脚刚说完跌不动，今天股市就拉了一坨大的。 内地资金加仓港股的趋势没发生变化 ，南向继续加仓120亿，而且昨天一天，恒生科技等科技和创新药方向的港股ETF，净流入超过了50亿，要 知道，春节后，港股通ETF其实一直是净流出的，这两天才出现了拐点，资金加速涌入的迹象极其明显。 因此，下跌显然还是外围因素造成的，事件也确实是突发事件，大家想必也都清楚了， 川宝昨晚发了帖子，态度180度大转弯 ，表示对加拿大和 老墨的关税，要在3月4日，也就是下周生效，而非是之前的4月2日，市场一下子就慌了，因为这意味着deadline马上就要到了，谈判的空间就逼 仄了。 另外，有提到要对我们多加征10%的关税，也是3月4日生效，我借用一下财新的说明，这样安全点。 要注意的是，川宝的帖子，是美东时间，一早8点51分左右发布的， 差不多是我们这边昨晚的21点51分 ，也就是美股开盘前的一小时，这也导致 美股开盘后，马上就是一波跳水。 但事情到这里，其实还没完，事实上，真正的问题是，川宝上台后，对我们有三个大的利空政策，一是2月初第一次的10%关税，二是本周初的 America First Investment P ...