Group 1: Deep Dive on "14th Five-Year Plan" - The article discusses the ongoing signals from the central government regarding industrial structure adjustments, emphasizing the path taken in the previous five-year plan and how the "14th Five-Year Plan" will advance these adjustments [8]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed a cooling trend, leading the market to shift from "rate cut trades" to "recession trades," raising questions about the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. - A mini-storm in sovereign debt markets has emerged due to a significant rise in overseas risk-free interest rates, prompting a risk-off sentiment in global financial markets [11][12]. - The article highlights that the decline in exports in August is not due to a "export rush" tapering off, but rather other underlying factors [16]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The analysis of the August CPI indicates that core CPI structure shows two main characteristics: limited transmission of tariffs on goods inflation and a weakening in super-core service inflation [21]. - The commentary on the recent U.S. employment data indicates a weakening trend, which has contributed to the continued rise in gold and silver prices [23].

Market Trends & Trade - Trade deals and talks should matter a lot to the macro market, but much of it is already priced in [2] - The market is pricing in the absolute best-case scenario regarding a potential 90-day reprieve on trade issues [3] - The market yawned at the EU deal, indicating it was already expected [4] Risk Assessment & Market Sentiment - The market has shifted from complete risk aversion to complete risk acceptance in a matter of weeks [6] - There are signs of real froth in the market, with some describing it as a "flight to crap" [6] - The market is seeing levels similar to 2021 when money was free, which is worrisome [11] - "Flight to crap" is the opposite of "flight to quality," where investors seek maximum risk [8][9] Meme Stocks & Speculative Trading - Meme stocks and companies with no earnings are seeing bids, and SPACs are back [5] - Individuals were buying the market in April, and risky trades have worked for them [10] - The activity surrounding meme stocks is more akin to gambling than investing [12] - Options activity often precedes social media hype for meme stocks, with peaks occurring shortly after the market opens [13] Company Specific Concerns - Kohl's bonds are trading around $0.70 on the dollar, indicating potential troubles ahead [14]

Geopolitical Risk Assessment - The market currently perceives no significant tail risk, with Iran unlikely to disrupt global trade substantially [1] - The market is trading the situation as a successful US intervention, ending uncertainty around Iran's nuclear program [2][3] - The key market concern is a sustained blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which would disrupt regional oil flow and affect the global economy [5][6] Market Reaction and Trading Strategy - Macro traders are closely monitoring the situation, but the market's reaction will be subdued unless there is a significant event [2][4] - Any headline other than a sustained Strait of Hormuz blockage will likely cause a temporary risk-off reaction that will be faded [6] - It is sensible to trade based on the current narrative until a development changes the situation [3] Dollar as a Safe Haven - The dollar is experiencing a slight haven bid due to marginal de-risking and deleveraging into the world's reserve currency [9] - The US benefits from higher oil prices as the world's largest oil producer, which supports the dollar [7][8] - The dollar's slight increase should not be mistaken for a major haven bid, as gold and treasuries are lower [10]

昨天的标题又起大了，前脚刚说完跌不动，今天股市就拉了一坨大的。 内地资金加仓港股的趋势没发生变化 ，南向继续加仓120亿，而且昨天一天，恒生科技等科技和创新药方向的港股ETF，净流入超过了50亿，要 知道，春节后，港股通ETF其实一直是净流出的，这两天才出现了拐点，资金加速涌入的迹象极其明显。 因此，下跌显然还是外围因素造成的，事件也确实是突发事件，大家想必也都清楚了， 川宝昨晚发了帖子，态度180度大转弯 ，表示对加拿大和 老墨的关税，要在3月4日，也就是下周生效，而非是之前的4月2日，市场一下子就慌了，因为这意味着deadline马上就要到了，谈判的空间就逼 仄了。 另外，有提到要对我们多加征10%的关税，也是3月4日生效，我借用一下财新的说明，这样安全点。 要注意的是，川宝的帖子，是美东时间，一早8点51分左右发布的， 差不多是我们这边昨晚的21点51分 ，也就是美股开盘前的一小时，这也导致 美股开盘后，马上就是一波跳水。 但事情到这里，其实还没完，事实上，真正的问题是，川宝上台后，对我们有三个大的利空政策，一是2月初第一次的10%关税，二是本周初的 America First Investment P ...