Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) is presenting a buying opportunity for bullish investors as the stock price has declined due to a market shift towards a "risk off" mentality [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Upstart Holdings, Inc. is experiencing a stock price slide, which has created a potential buying opportunity for investors [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Julian Lin, a financial analyst, focuses on identifying undervalued companies with long-term growth potential and strong balance sheets [1] - Lin leads the investing group Best Of Breed Growth Stocks, which emphasizes stocks with a high probability of delivering significant alpha compared to the S&P 500 [1] - The investment strategy combines growth-oriented principles with strict valuation criteria to enhance the margin of safety [1]

Market Cycle Analysis - DeFi Report 认为加密货币市场目前充满不确定性，可能面临牛市恢复或进入熊市的转折点 [1] - DeFi Report 此前过长时间保持风险偏好，近期已开始降低风险敞口，并评估了周期结束和潜在融涨的风险 [1] - DeFi Report 在 10 月 10 日的闪崩前已转为风险规避模式，原因是观察到市场杠杆过高但基本面疲软 [1][3] - DeFi Report 认为当前扩张阶段已持续 1044 天（截至 9 月底），与之前周期长度相似，暗示周期已进入后期 [2] - DeFi Report 认为即使在牛市情景下，ETH 的交易价格也可能达到 8500 美元，但在 10 月初仍将融涨视为基本情况 [2] Investment Strategy & Risk Management - DeFi Report 的投资策略是选择少量高质量资产，基于数据基本面（尤其是链上数据）进行长期买入并持有，同时根据市场周期调整风险 [1] - DeFi Report 的目标是在周期结束时持有更多现金，以便在熊市中进行部署，并强调在市场风险规避时进行投资 [1] - DeFi Report 已将现金头寸增加到 50%-60%，原因是比特币交易量低迷，ETF 流量放缓 [3] - DeFi Report 目前持有 70% 的现金头寸，并巩固了其最高信念的投资 [3] - DeFi Report 认为在周期后期，如果持有时间过长，可能会错过历史高点，因此需要根据信念采取行动 [3] On-Chain Data & Market Indicators - ETH 期货的估计杠杆率接近 1，远高于历史水平，表明市场存在过度杠杆 [3][4] - DeFi Report 认为大量稳定币购买活动增强了交易者进行杠杆操作的信心，但同时也导致市场结构变得脆弱 [4] - DeFi Report 认为长期比特币持有者已实现 9000 亿美元的利润，高于上个周期的 5000 亿美元，表明卖方压力较大 [5] - DeFi Report 认为 ETH 的已实现利润为 2600 亿美元，低于上个周期的 2200 亿美元，表明 ETH 的周期相对比特币较为平淡 [5] - DeFi Report 认为前七大加密资产的资本基础为 173 万亿美元，市场估值为 31 万亿美元，杠杆和估值溢价可能在熊市中消失 [6] Macroeconomic Factors & Liquidity - DeFi Report 认为全球流动性扩张可能持续到 2026 年上半年，但加密货币市场结构和基本面仍然重要 [7][13][14] - DeFi Report 认为银行同业拆借利率超过联邦基金利率可能导致银行体系流动性紧张，增加市场波动性 [7][18][19] - DeFi Report 认为财政政策（如关税）可能通过将资本从私营部门转移到公共部门来减少流动性 [7][39][40] - DeFi Report 认为 AI 泡沫破裂可能对市场产生重大影响，类似于 2001 年的科技泡沫 [7][34]

Group 1: Deep Dive on "14th Five-Year Plan" - The article discusses the ongoing signals from the central government regarding industrial structure adjustments, emphasizing the path taken in the previous five-year plan and how the "14th Five-Year Plan" will advance these adjustments [8]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed a cooling trend, leading the market to shift from "rate cut trades" to "recession trades," raising questions about the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. - A mini-storm in sovereign debt markets has emerged due to a significant rise in overseas risk-free interest rates, prompting a risk-off sentiment in global financial markets [11][12]. - The article highlights that the decline in exports in August is not due to a "export rush" tapering off, but rather other underlying factors [16]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The analysis of the August CPI indicates that core CPI structure shows two main characteristics: limited transmission of tariffs on goods inflation and a weakening in super-core service inflation [21]. - The commentary on the recent U.S. employment data indicates a weakening trend, which has contributed to the continued rise in gold and silver prices [23].

Market Trends & Trade - Trade deals and talks should matter a lot to the macro market, but much of it is already priced in [2] - The market is pricing in the absolute best-case scenario regarding a potential 90-day reprieve on trade issues [3] - The market yawned at the EU deal, indicating it was already expected [4] Risk Assessment & Market Sentiment - The market has shifted from complete risk aversion to complete risk acceptance in a matter of weeks [6] - There are signs of real froth in the market, with some describing it as a "flight to crap" [6] - The market is seeing levels similar to 2021 when money was free, which is worrisome [11] - "Flight to crap" is the opposite of "flight to quality," where investors seek maximum risk [8][9] Meme Stocks & Speculative Trading - Meme stocks and companies with no earnings are seeing bids, and SPACs are back [5] - Individuals were buying the market in April, and risky trades have worked for them [10] - The activity surrounding meme stocks is more akin to gambling than investing [12] - Options activity often precedes social media hype for meme stocks, with peaks occurring shortly after the market opens [13] Company Specific Concerns - Kohl's bonds are trading around $0.70 on the dollar, indicating potential troubles ahead [14]

Geopolitical Risk Assessment - The market currently perceives no significant tail risk, with Iran unlikely to disrupt global trade substantially [1] - The market is trading the situation as a successful US intervention, ending uncertainty around Iran's nuclear program [2][3] - The key market concern is a sustained blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which would disrupt regional oil flow and affect the global economy [5][6] Market Reaction and Trading Strategy - Macro traders are closely monitoring the situation, but the market's reaction will be subdued unless there is a significant event [2][4] - Any headline other than a sustained Strait of Hormuz blockage will likely cause a temporary risk-off reaction that will be faded [6] - It is sensible to trade based on the current narrative until a development changes the situation [3] Dollar as a Safe Haven - The dollar is experiencing a slight haven bid due to marginal de-risking and deleveraging into the world's reserve currency [9] - The US benefits from higher oil prices as the world's largest oil producer, which supports the dollar [7][8] - The dollar's slight increase should not be mistaken for a major haven bid, as gold and treasuries are lower [10]

昨天的标题又起大了，前脚刚说完跌不动，今天股市就拉了一坨大的。 内地资金加仓港股的趋势没发生变化 ，南向继续加仓120亿，而且昨天一天，恒生科技等科技和创新药方向的港股ETF，净流入超过了50亿，要 知道，春节后，港股通ETF其实一直是净流出的，这两天才出现了拐点，资金加速涌入的迹象极其明显。 因此，下跌显然还是外围因素造成的，事件也确实是突发事件，大家想必也都清楚了， 川宝昨晚发了帖子，态度180度大转弯 ，表示对加拿大和 老墨的关税，要在3月4日，也就是下周生效，而非是之前的4月2日，市场一下子就慌了，因为这意味着deadline马上就要到了，谈判的空间就逼 仄了。 另外，有提到要对我们多加征10%的关税，也是3月4日生效，我借用一下财新的说明，这样安全点。 要注意的是，川宝的帖子，是美东时间，一早8点51分左右发布的， 差不多是我们这边昨晚的21点51分 ，也就是美股开盘前的一小时，这也导致 美股开盘后，马上就是一波跳水。 但事情到这里，其实还没完，事实上，真正的问题是，川宝上台后，对我们有三个大的利空政策，一是2月初第一次的10%关税，二是本周初的 America First Investment P ...