Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector showed signs of recovery, with a 1.5% increase, but remains down 2% over the last 10 days, indicating volatility in the market [1][2][3] - The semiconductor sector performed relatively well, with notable gains: Intel up 18%, ARM up 8%, and Western Digital up 18%, while AMD and Qualcomm saw declines of 14% and 10% respectively [2] - Software stocks faced significant losses, with major players like Microsoft down 12%, SAP and Oracle down 14%, and Atlassian down 34%, suggesting ongoing challenges in this segment [3][14] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The dollar index showed a decline of 0.8%, indicating potential implications for commodities and stocks, with concerns about interest rates and fiscal sustainability [5][6][8] - Upcoming economic reports, including job market data and consumer inflation, are expected to create volatility, with a medium forecast of 70,000 job creations but a wide range of estimates from -10,000 to 135,000 [29][30] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain a cautious approach, with expectations of rate cuts later in the year, which could support equity markets [102][104] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Women's Sports - Ariel Investments Project Level successfully completed a funding round of $250 million, emphasizing the growing commercial viability of women's sports [77] - The investment strategy focuses on building a sustainable ecosystem around women's sports, including teams and related businesses, to enhance profitability and player salaries [86][90] - The ongoing negotiations in women's sports leagues, such as the WNBA, reflect the increasing economic potential and recognition of player value, indicating a shift in the market dynamics [93][95] Group 4: Market Volatility and Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 bounced off the 100-day moving average, indicating a potential recovery, with a focus on breaking the 7,000-point milestone [98][100] - The tech sector's performance is crucial for the S&P's movement, as it has not reached new highs since October, largely due to weakness in software stocks [104][106] - Increased single stock volatility has led to a greater reliance on technical analysis, as price movements deviate from fundamentals, creating opportunities for traders [107][109]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a retracement bounce after an aggressive sell-off in recent days, with S&P minis up nearly 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures higher by over 0.5%, and small cap futures up 1.25% [1][2]. - The S&P 500 closed at the 100-day moving average, which historically leads to a bounce back the following day [3][4]. - An increase in open interest in E-mini S&P 500 futures indicates new sellers entering the market, suggesting a correction phase [5]. Sector Performance - There is notable weakness in technology stocks, particularly software names, while consumer staples and industrials are showing strength [6][7]. - The "Mag seven" tech stocks, including Microsoft, are underperforming, with concerns about their spending levels impacting stock performance [7][9]. Amazon's Earnings Report - Amazon reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.95, slightly missing expectations of $1.96, but revenue exceeded expectations at $213.3 billion compared to the anticipated $211.4 billion [10][11]. - AWS revenue also surpassed expectations, coming in at $35.58 billion, while advertising revenue exceeded forecasts [11]. - Amazon's capital expenditure (CapEx) is projected to be around $200 billion for 2026, significantly higher than the expected $146.6 billion, raising concerns about future growth and cash flow [12][13]. Reddit's Earnings Report - Reddit's adjusted earnings per share for Q4 came in at $1.24, beating expectations of $1.94, and revenue reached $726 million, also exceeding forecasts [23][24]. - The company is seeing strong growth in daily active users, particularly internationally, and guidance for future revenue and earnings has surpassed expectations [24][25]. - Reddit's partnerships with major companies like Google for AI training are expected to provide long-term business benefits [25][26]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery, defending a key support level, with a potential close above $68,000 indicating a healthy market condition [16][17]. - There is a noted correlation between Bitcoin and the tech sector, particularly software stocks, although Bitcoin is increasingly trading independently of broader equity markets [20][21].

Key Takeaways The Dow Easily Outpaced Tech-Heavy Indexes TodayAlphabet Posted Huge Q4 Numbers, ELF Crushes EstimatesServices PMI Gained in JanuaryWednesday, February 4th, 2026Stock market rotation out of software and tech in general was on clear display today, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and Nasdaq-exposed S&P 500 hitting the closing bell lower by -1.51% and -0.51%, respectively. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -0.67% on the day. The Dow is up +0.9% over the past five trading days; the other three indexes ar ...

Market Performance - The MAG 7 index is experiencing a downturn, with a reported decline of about 8% [4] - Western Digital saw an increase of 8% earlier but is now only fractionally higher, indicating a potential reversal in tech stocks [2] - The E-Mini S&P 500 is trading below critical support levels, with volatility increasing to around 17.3 [5][6] Sector Analysis - The software sector is facing significant declines, with companies like ServiceNow, Workday, Zscaler, Adobe, Shopify, and Snowflake all reporting lower prices [8] - In contrast, the materials sector is up by 2%, driven by a rebound in metals, particularly silver, which has increased by 14% [17][18] Economic Indicators - The partial government shutdown is affecting the release of economic data, which may provide a tailwind for markets as it allows traders to focus on fundamentals rather than potentially negative economic reports [11][12] - Recent comments from economic officials suggest that while inflation remains a concern, the overall economic data has been encouraging [10] Company Focus - InPhase, a solar provider, is being closely watched due to its low expectations going into its earnings report, despite facing challenges from falling subsidies and demand in European markets [23][24] - The company has potential for significant movement in the market, especially if it can capitalize on the commercial solar business [25]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant rebound at the start of February, with the S&P 500 index nearing a record high, indicating a recovery from previous weakness and a positive investor sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,976.44, gaining 0.5% on Monday and just below its record close [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.6% [1] - The market recovery followed a three-session losing streak, suggesting a shift in investor confidence [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors capitalized on the recent dip in stock prices, indicating a willingness to buy into the market despite prior volatility [1] - The easing of extreme tumult in the metals market contributed to the positive market sentiment [1]

Market Overview - The market is currently rangebound after a recent upswing, with some sell-off observed in the futures market but positivity around Nvidia driving indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slightly higher [2][3] - Heavy-weighted sectors such as consumer discretionary, information technology, and communication services are outperforming, which is conducive for the S&P 500 to reach the 7,000 level [4] - There is skepticism regarding the market rebound, with a need to close above the 20-day moving average to become more bullish; the 100-day moving average is seen as a support level [5] Intel's Performance - Intel reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.15, exceeding expectations, with revenue of $13.67 billion also above forecasts [7] - However, guidance for Q1 EPS outlook is flat, with revenue expectations between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, falling short of the street's expectation of $12.51 billion [8] - The company is facing challenges in the CPU segment, which saw a revenue decline of 7% year-over-year, impacting overall topline growth [10] Natural Gas Market - Natural gas traders are advised to buy forecasts and sell actual events, especially with a historic storm impacting the Midwest and East Coast [13] - The February natural gas contract traded at $5.65, with a significant spread of $1.60 (70%) compared to the March contract, indicating potential price convergence [14][15] - There is an expectation of a draw in heating demand, but the market remains sensitive to changes in weather forecasts, which could lead to selling pressure [16][17]

Group 1 - Investors are shifting focus from technology giants to banks, consumer-product makers, and materials producers, betting on their outperformance as the US economy accelerates in 2026 [1] - Big Tech is still expected to dominate fourth-quarter profit growth among S&P 500 firms, with estimated year-over-year earnings growth of 20%, while non-tech earnings are projected to decelerate from 9% to just 1% [2] - Companies like Caterpillar Inc. and Procter & Gamble Co. are under pressure to confirm optimistic economic forecasts, as investors anticipate a significant economic boost in the first half of the year [3] Group 2 - Guidance from corporate leaders will be crucial, with expectations for broad stimulus tailwinds to support sustainable earnings growth [4] - Small caps and value stocks are currently favored, indicating investor confidence in the US economy, as evidenced by the Russell 2000 Index outperforming the S&P 500 for seven consecutive days [4] - Analysts forecast that the S&P 500 Value cohort will see profit growth of 9%, significantly lower than the 30% profit expansion expected for tech stocks [5] Group 3 - Industrial firms in the S&P 500 are projected to increase profits by 13%, while discretionary consumer products and services companies are expected to grow by 12% [6] - Health care, materials, and consumer staples firms are also anticipated to deliver gains nearing 10% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Economic reacceleration is driving a "rotation trade" among investors, indicating a shift in market focus towards sectors expected to benefit from renewed economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Investors are optimistic about a potential economic rebound, which is influencing market strategies and asset allocation [1] - The anticipation of improved economic conditions is leading to increased interest in cyclical stocks, which typically perform well during periods of economic growth [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The "rotation trade" reflects a movement away from growth stocks towards value stocks, as investors seek opportunities in sectors that may thrive in a recovering economy [1] - This shift in investment strategy suggests a broader confidence in the economic outlook, prompting a reevaluation of portfolio compositions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a rally driven by positive sentiment from the CPI report and company performances like Micron, but the sustainability of this rally is uncertain due to ongoing economic factors and market rotations [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The CPI data collection was limited in October and early November, leading to a reliance on estimated data, which may affect the perceived accuracy of economic indicators until the December release [2][3]. - Initial jobless claims were in line with expectations, indicating stability in the job market [4]. Market Trends - There is a noticeable rotation in the market, moving away from high-flying AI stocks towards more defensive and value-oriented sectors [4][5]. - Over the past six months, only 18% of S&P 500 constituents outperformed the index, but this figure rose to 63% in the last month, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][6]. Small Cap Performance - The Russell 2000 index has shown improved breadth and performance compared to the NASDAQ and S&P 500, suggesting a potential for continued growth in small-cap stocks [6][10]. - Investors are advised against a monolithic approach to the Russell 2000, as the performance of individual stocks can vary significantly [9][13]. Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a reevaluation of valuations, particularly in light of recent earnings reports like Micron's, which highlight strong demand in data centers [14][16]. - There is a concern regarding the sustainability of growth in the tech sector, with free cash flow growth for major companies declining recently, leading to increased reliance on debt financing [18]. Future Outlook - The narrative around AI is expected to broaden in 2026, moving beyond just data centers and focusing on the overall economic impact and productivity enhancements brought by AI adoption [19][20]. - The market may experience volatility characterized by "fits and starts," with significant reactions to both positive and negative earnings reports [5][17].

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a rotation trade, with approximately 60% of S&P 500 stocks in the green, but the S&P 500 equal weight index is trading flat to negative, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][4] - Volatility is relatively low, with the VIX at 14, suggesting a potential for an increase in volatility in the near future [4][10] - The yield on the 10-year benchmark is at 4.19%, reflecting a return to pre-FOMC meeting levels, indicating market caution regarding rate cuts [7][8] Federal Reserve Commentary - Fed speakers, including Austin Goolsby and Schmidt, express concerns about elevated inflation risks, leading to a cautious stance on rate cuts [5][8] - Upcoming Fed commentary and economic data will be crucial for market direction, with a focus on employment and housing data [11][12] Sector Performance - The technology sector is facing sell-offs, with companies like Broadcom and Oracle experiencing declines [4][9] - The healthcare sector is performing well, with stocks like UNH and Humana showing aggressive gains [14][15] Commodities Insights - Natural gas prices are down nearly 3%, influenced by warmer weather forecasts and an inventory buildup in the U.S. [16][18] - If natural gas remains around the $4 level for a few weeks, there is potential for a rebound to $5 or $6 due to expected winter weather disruptions [19][20] - In the metals market, platinum and palladium are seeing gains, driven by industrial demand and potential regulatory rollbacks on emissions [24][25]