Welcome back. Stocks moving higher today. An S&P record looks to be within reach.New's head of equities and fixed income Sarah Malik is out with her second half playbook and joins me now. Sarah, it's good to see you. Good to see you.So, you know, for as much as has happened in the first half of this year, it's been dramatic. Some of these violent market moves point to point the S&P 500 and the total bond market index are really close to where we started the year, within a few percent. So what should an inve ...

Accessible version On Macro & Micro: global growth expectations improve but still weak (net -46%); big reversal in recession odds (net 42% "likely" in April to 36% "unlikely" in June); 66% expect soft landing (8-month high - 16% = no landing, 13% = hard landing); One Big Beautiful Bill to increase US growth say 33% vs 81% to increase US deficit; investors say corporate balance sheets in best health since Dec'15, and most since Jul'13 want companies to return cash to shareholders. On Returns, Risks, Crowds: ...

September. Kelly. >> All right.So still looking maybe for them to lower rates in a few more months. Steve stay right there as we bring in Paul McCulley Pimco's former chief economist Paul always like to speak with you on the eve of these decisions. And so far, the preponderance of evidence has kind of been to the deflationary side of the tariff case.I mean, even what you see, apparel prices slightly lower. There's not a lot in any of the reports up until now, that point towards a lot of price hikes througho ...

Economic Indicators - UBS has identified that recession risks in the United States are increasing, with three main indicators showing concerning trends: real-world data, credit conditions, and the yield curve [1][2] - The probability of a US recession based on real-world data has risen to 46%, an increase of 12 percentage points in just one month, indicating broad-based weakness in key economic areas [4][3] - The yield curve currently suggests an 18% probability of recession, which, while lower than previous extremes, still represents a notable increase [5] Credit Conditions - UBS's credit-based model indicates a 48% probability of recession, marking the highest level since the pandemic, reflecting shifts in financial ratios and lending conditions [6] Composite Recession Risk - The composite gauge from UBS places the overall US recession risk at 37%, up from 26% in December, approaching levels historically associated with actual downturns [7] - Despite these indicators, UBS does not currently predict a recession, noting that the economy began the year on stable footing, but warns that further data deterioration could reignite recession discussions [7] Global Implications - The US consumer remains a critical driver of global demand, and any retrenchment in consumer spending or business investment could negatively impact the developed world [9] - The situation is being closely monitored, with upcoming data in May and June expected to influence market narratives significantly [10]