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How Much Will U.S. GDP Ultimately Grow in Q3?
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-01 15:22
U.S. economic growth will likely come in at 3.3% for the third quarter of 2025, according to traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi. This is based on traders placing the odds at economic growth coming in above 2.5% at 83%, the odds of economic growth coming in above 3% at 63%, and the odds of economic growth coming in above 3.5% at just 37%. This would mean a sharp uptick from the advance gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate of 3% for Q2, signaling rising optimism around consumer resilie ...
Analysis-Fed rate cuts could set stage for broader US stock gains
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-17 10:10
Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its benchmark interest rate for the first time since December, aiming to support a weakening labor market, with nearly six quarter-point cuts anticipated by the end of next year [2][5] - Historically, stock gains tend to follow the initiation of an easing cycle, particularly benefiting sectors tied to the domestic economy's cyclicality, such as banks, homebuilders, and materials companies [3][4] - The small-cap Russell 2000 index is outperforming the large-cap S&P 500 this quarter, indicating that investors may be positioning themselves ahead of the anticipated rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Investors are hopeful that rate cuts will prevent further labor market weakness, creating a "Goldilocks" environment where lower rates coincide with economic stability [5] - There is a concern that the current economic outlook may be overly optimistic, with potential risks of a recession that could impact stock valuations [6] - The Federal Open Market Committee's upcoming statement and projections will be critical in determining market reactions and aligning with investor expectations [6]
August inflation comes in slightly hotter-than-expected: Full analysis of the report
Youtube· 2025-09-11 14:58
Inflation Data Summary - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, which is slightly higher than estimates [1][4] - Year-over-year inflation stands at 2.9%, with the core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.1%, both figures aligning with economists' expectations [2][66] - The service sector is identified as a significant contributor to the inflation increase, with shelter costs also rising [9][10] Market Reactions - Despite the inflation data, market futures indicate a positive outlook, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [3][5] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have reached record highs, reflecting investor confidence despite inflation concerns [4][68] - The Fed funds futures market is pricing in three rate cuts by December, indicating strong market expectations for monetary easing [53][68] Sector-Specific Insights - The food index increased by 0.5% in August, with food at home rising by 6%, highlighting persistent inflation in essential goods [60][61] - Airline fares saw a significant increase of 5.9%, contributing to the mixed picture of service sector inflation [63] - Apparel prices rose by 0.5%, suggesting tariff impacts on consumer goods [64][85] Employment and Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims reached 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating potential weakness in the labor market [15][76] - The Fed is balancing its dual mandate of controlling inflation while addressing employment concerns, complicating its policy decisions [13][78] Long-term Economic Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of rate cuts in the face of persistent inflation, with expectations that long-term yields may not fall significantly [32][39] - The economic environment remains challenging for lower-income Americans, as inflation continues to impact essential goods disproportionately [22][26]
Non-QM, Post-Closing, QC, Warehouse Products; Pulte vs. Bessent; Conventional Conforming Updates; Nice Jump in Apps
Mortgage News Daily· 2025-09-10 15:46
Non-QM, Post-Closing, QC, Warehouse Products; Pulte vs. Bessent; Conventional Conforming Updates; Nice Jump in Apps “Rob, I hate it when mom and dad fight. Will this Pulte/Bessent, FHFA/Treasury tussle impact mortgage rates?” Probably not; it hasn’t so far. Director Pulte is certainly in the news. Occupancy isn’t a partisan issue, right?! FHFA Director Pulte, who continues to point out potential fraud by Fed. Governor Lisa Cook (who a Federal judge ruled yesterday could stay in her post), has two close rel ...
3 Bank Stocks Poised to Benefit Amid Strong Industry Rally
ZACKS· 2025-09-02 16:25
Core Insights - The banking sector has seen a significant rally, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index increasing over 18% in the last three months, outperforming the S&P 500 Index's 9% growth [1][9] - Major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup have reported impressive gains of 13.2%, 23.4%, and 26.2% respectively during the same period [2][9] - The surge in bank stocks is primarily driven by dovish Federal Reserve commentary and strong fundamentals highlighted by 2025 stress test results [3][6] Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated potential interest rate cuts, which has renewed investor optimism, particularly for yield-sensitive financials [4][5] - While long-term profitability may be affected by narrower net interest margins, short-term rate cuts are expected to stimulate loan growth and market activity [5] Stress Test Results - The 2025 stress tests confirmed that major banks remain well-capitalized and resilient under severe economic conditions, reassuring investors about the stability of the financial system [6] Second-Quarter Earnings - Robust second-quarter results have contributed to the rally, with banks reporting resilient profits and strong net interest income despite unchanged rates [7][9] JPMorgan Overview - JPMorgan, the largest global bank with over $4.5 trillion in assets, has raised its 2025 net interest income guidance to nearly $95.5 billion, driven by strong loan demand [10][11] - The bank expects a revival in corporate financing activity due to lower borrowing costs, which will enhance advisory and underwriting fees [12] - The Zacks Consensus estimate for JPMorgan's 2025 earnings is $19.50, indicating a slight year-over-year decline of 1.3% [13] Goldman Sachs Overview - Goldman Sachs has seen a 24% year-over-year increase in investment banking revenues, indicating a rebound in capital markets [14] - The bank is focusing on its Global Banking and Markets, and Asset and Wealth Management divisions, while exiting underperforming consumer banking ventures [16][17] - The Zacks Consensus estimate for Goldman Sachs' 2025 earnings is $45.63, suggesting a year-over-year growth rate of 12.6% [22] Citigroup Overview - Citigroup anticipates a marginal decline in net interest income due to rate cuts but expects a 4% growth in net interest income (excluding Markets) for the year [20] - The bank is streamlining operations and exiting consumer banking in 14 markets, aiming to save $2-$2.5 billion annually through workforce reductions [21] - The Zacks Consensus estimate for Citigroup's 2025 earnings is $7.57, indicating a year-over-year growth rate of 27.2% [22]
SpaceX Starship lands in Indian Ocean after test flight
NBC News· 2025-08-27 02:00
Landing Precision - The landing was not only soft but also pinpoint [1] - The landing was described as a bullseye [1] Trajectory Stability - The trajectory was relatively stable before touchdown [1]
美银:全球买方基金经理调查
美银· 2025-07-16 00:55
Investment Rating - The report indicates a "sell signal" triggered by cash levels falling to 3.9% [14][15][86] Core Insights - Investor sentiment is the most bullish since February 2025, with a significant surge in profit optimism and risk appetite over the past three months [2][17] - 59% of investors believe a recession is unlikely, a notable shift from 42% in April, with 65% expecting a soft landing [3][26][27] - The most crowded trade is "short US dollar," with a net 20% overweight on Euro, the highest since January 2005 [5][55][62] Summary by Sections Macro Insights - 42% of investors expect Q2 2025 EPS to beat consensus, while 19% anticipate disappointment [30][36] - AI is perceived to be increasing productivity by 42% of investors [32][37] - Expectations for a global recession have decreased, with only 9% expecting a hard landing [26][28] Policy Insights - The trade war is viewed as the biggest tail risk, with expected final tariff rates on the Rest of the World rising to 14% [4][49][48] - 81% of investors forecast one or two rate cuts by year-end, with only 11% expecting a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [38][44] Asset Allocation - FMS equity allocation improved to a net 2% overweight, while bond allocation remains net 4% underweight [120][121] - Investors are most overweight Eurozone equities, with a net 41% overweight, the highest in four years [63][65] - There has been a significant increase in allocation to tech stocks, with a net 14% overweight, the highest since January 2025 [68][70] Investor Sentiment - The FMS cash level has dropped to 3.9%, indicating a sell signal, with historical median losses following such signals averaging -2% [14][20][86] - Risk appetite has surged, with a net 31% of investors expecting weaker global economic growth, a significant recovery from previous months [23][92] - 68% of investors believe high-quality earnings will outperform low-quality earnings [101][103]
GOP bill is largely priced into U.S. Treasurys, says JPMorgan's Priya Misra
CNBC Television· 2025-07-09 12:58
Treasury Market & Fiscal Policy - The market has largely priced in the impact of the "one big beautiful bill" (tax bill) [2][3] - Tariff revenues are projected to offset a significant portion of the tax bill's cost, with CBO projecting $28 trillion in tariff revenues versus the tax bill's $32 trillion cost [3] - The yield curve has steepened, indicating the market is pricing in an unsustainable deficit trajectory [4] - The market is pricing in some base level of tariffs, potentially 10% on the world and 30% on China or transshipment [7] Economic Outlook & Fed Policy - The underlying economy is slowing but remains above recession levels, leading to expectations of a soft landing [4][5] - Inflation has come in weaker in recent months, leading the market to price in Fed rate cuts, approximately 100 to 120 basis points [5][6] - The market anticipates "good news rate cuts" from the Fed due to the slowing economy and potential for one-time price shocks from tariffs [6] - A risk scenario involves sectoral tariffs causing mini humps or bumps in inflation, which the Fed is closely monitoring [9][10] Fixed Income Investment Strategy - In a soft landing scenario with growth around 1% to 15% and inflation slightly higher, a 4% to 45% tenure seems fair [12] - High-quality fixed income offers attractive yields around 6% to 65%, while high-quality high yield provides around 7% [12] - Fixed income looks attractive due to the potential for diversification and the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates further if the economy slows down [13]
美银:全球基金经理调查-The Buck Stops Here
美银· 2025-06-18 00:54
Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment sentiment with a Bull & Bear Indicator reading of 5.4, suggesting a balanced outlook for global equities [12][75]. Core Insights - Investor sentiment has recovered to pre-Liberation Day levels as fears of trade wars and recessions diminish, with cash levels decreasing to 4.2% from 4.8% in April [1][17]. - Expectations for global growth have improved, with a significant reversal in recession odds, dropping from 42% likelihood in April to 36% in June [2][18]. - The best-performing asset expected over the next five years is international stocks, with 54% of investors favoring them, followed by US stocks at 23% [3][50]. Summary by Sections Macro & Micro - Global growth expectations remain weak, with a net of 46% of investors expecting a weaker economy, although this is an improvement from a record 82% in April [2][22]. - The sentiment for a "soft landing" has risen to 66%, the highest since October 2024, while "hard landing" expectations have decreased to 13% [23][24]. Returns, Risks, Crowds - The most crowded trades include long gold (41%) and long Magnificent 7 (23%), with trade war recession still seen as the primary tail risk at 47% [3][54]. - A net 21% of investors expect higher long-term bond yields, the highest since August 2022 [49]. Asset Allocation - There has been a rotation towards emerging markets, energy, banks, and industrials, while reducing exposure to staples, utilities, and healthcare [4][60]. - The average cash level among investors has decreased to 4.2%, indicating a shift towards equities [17][75]. Corporate Sentiment - Investors view corporate balance sheets as the healthiest since December 2015, with a net 3% stating companies are "underleveraged" [43]. - There is a strong desire for companies to return cash to shareholders, with 32% of investors advocating for this strategy, the highest since July 2013 [46]. Sector and Regional Allocation - FMS investors are net 36% underweight US equities, while being net 34% overweight Eurozone equities [139][140]. - The allocation to banks has increased significantly, with a net 25% overweight position, reflecting a positive sentiment towards the financial sector [156].
Economic data has shown the continuation of a soft landing: PIMCO's former economist Paul McCulley
CNBC Television· 2025-06-17 17:48
Economic Outlook - The most recent data suggests a continuation of a soft landing, which is good news for the economy [2] - The economy was in a good position to absorb the stagflationary shock from tariffs, and the Fed was in a restrictive position [3] - Concerns exist regarding oil prices potentially offsetting disinflation in other parts of the economy [5] Tariffs and Inflation - Evidence of tariffs impacting inflation is present in recent reports, with appliances and commodity goods prices increasing [4] - $70 billion of tariffs have been collected, indicating that someone is bearing the cost [4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain, with a divided outlook on whether it will be a one-off event or cause broader inflation [6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed is likely to lower rates in the coming months [1] - The Fed should wait and see before cutting rates, despite pressure, to avoid cutting into a bigger inflation problem [6] - The Fed is being cautious, and the downside of waiting is small [7] - Financial markets will likely price in easing before the Fed delivers it if stagnation worsens [8] - The Fed's transparency provides a release valve against being behind the curve, as markets will front-run easing [9]