Accessible version Global Fund Manager Survey Bottom Line: investors bullish…most OW stocks since Feb'25, most OW commodities since Sep'22, running very low 3.7% cash levels ("sell signal"); FMS positioning a headwind not tailwind for risk assets, froth to correct further without Fed Dec rate cut, EM/banks most vulnerable to proper Q4 risk-off move, retail/UK assets the contrarian longs. On Macro: investors bullish on Goldilocks, 53% expect soft landing (vs 37% no landing, just 6% hard landing); global grow ...

The financial market experienced a choppy, yet ultimately positive week as the US ended a record-long government shutdown. After 43 days, the spending bill finally passed, clearing the way for the resumption of official data.The Bureau of Labor Statistics quickly confirmed that the long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls report will be released on Thursday, November 20, giving traders a fresh anchor after weeks of trading in the dark. On the other hand, Fed officials, including Cleveland's Beth Hammack and ...

Market Overview & CPI Analysis - CPI 数据中关税的影响并不明显，整体同比 CPI 仍高于 3% 的目标值[1][2] - 市场普遍预计美联储将在 10 月降息，12 月可能再次降息[3] - 普遍认为市场情绪仍然积极，科技和创新领域仍是投资重点[5] Sector Focus & AI Impact - 策略上，通过银行、保险和公用事业等周期性行业来对冲科技投资，以受益于预期中的宽松政策[6] - AI 的生产力、效率和收入增长预计将在企业采用率达到 50% 以上时才会显现，目前采用率约为 5% 到 10%[6] - 盈利方面，目前非科技行业的盈利表现更为积极，需考虑科技基础设施支出的影响[8] Private Credit & Risk Assessment - 目前看到的私募信贷问题更多与欺诈有关，而非经济状况[9][11] - 预计某些领域的部分信贷会出现违约，但不太可能像金融危机那样大规模蔓延[11] - 经济前景仍然乐观，预计软着陆，加上货币政策宽松，违约风险预计不会大规模扩散[14]

Core Insights - The market began 2025 positively but faced volatility due to tariff and geopolitical risks, with the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25% in September and signaling two more cuts for the year [1] - Despite inflation and rising unemployment, equities remain near record highs, driven by optimism over rate cuts, AI-driven earnings growth, and hopes for a soft landing [1] - Retail investors face challenges in stock selection amidst these conditions [1] Sales Growth as a Key Metric - Sales growth is preferred over earnings for evaluating stocks, as it reflects actual demand and provides visibility into a company's business model durability [3] - Companies that can grow revenues during economic downturns demonstrate pricing power and competitive advantages [3] - Constant sales growth leads to stronger cash flows, allowing for reinvestment, market expansion, or shareholder returns without excessive debt reliance [5] Stock Selection Criteria - Stocks with 5-Year Historical Sales Growth (%) greater than industry average and Cash Flow over $500 million are prioritized [6] - Additional metrics include P/S Ratio less than industry average, positive % Change in F1 Sales Estimate Revisions, Operating Margin greater than 5%, and Return on Equity (ROE) greater than 5% [7][8][9] Recommended Stocks - **Lamb Weston (LW)**: Expected sales growth rate of 1.3% for fiscal 2026, Zacks Rank 1 [12] - **Universal Health Services (UHS)**: Expected sales growth rate of 8.5% for 2025, Zacks Rank 2 [14] - **FirstEnergy Corp (FE)**: Expected sales growth of 6.6% in 2025, Zacks Rank 2 [14] - **NetEase, Inc. (NTES)**: Expected sales growth of 10.3% for 2025, Zacks Rank 2 [15] - **JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)**: Expected sales growth of 2.1% in 2025, Zacks Rank 2 [16]

Market Overview - Crypto markets are currently in a holding pattern, with Bitcoin trading around $108,164, reflecting a slight increase from Monday but a 2% decline for the week, while Ether is near $3,815 [1] - The upcoming U.S. CPI report is anticipated to influence market sentiment, with QCP Capital noting that a softer 0.2% print could support Bitcoin's upside potential [2][3] Economic Indicators - The CPI report is viewed as the "singular anchor" for policy expectations, with potential implications for risk sentiment and liquidity in the market [3] - A recent liquidation event of $20 billion and collateral mispricing at Binance have largely settled, creating a cleaner environment for macro traders ahead of the CPI release [5] Crypto Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is consolidating above $108,000, with analysts suggesting that a dip below $100,000 could present a buying opportunity before a potential upward movement [6] - Ethereum is trading around $3,800, with a 33% increase in volume as traders position themselves ahead of inflation data; however, a significant transfer by the Ethereum Foundation has led to profit-taking and long liquidations [7] Gold Market Trends - Gold futures have experienced a record-setting sell-off, down 0.3% to $4,097.80 an ounce following a 5.7% drop, as investors take profits; however, strong central bank buying and expectations of rate cuts may provide support for bullion [8]

Group 1 - The current trend in yields suggests a potential decrease, with expectations for the 10-year yield to trade down to around 3.88% and possibly as low as 3.60% [1][3][4] - The decline in yields is interpreted positively, indicating that inflation concerns may not be as significant as previously thought, especially in light of the government shutdown affecting data availability [2][3] - There is a belief that if the economy remains stable while yields decrease, it could lead to a bullish market scenario, with projections of significant market growth [3][5][6] Group 2 - Concerns are raised about the real economy's strength, with indications that if it is weaker, the Federal Reserve may have the justification to cut rates, which could further support market growth [4][6] - The performance of regional banks and alternative asset managers is under scrutiny, with some analysts suggesting a disconnect in their trading patterns, although there is less concern about regional banks specifically [8][10] - The growth in credit over the past 10 to 15 years has primarily come from the private sector, indicating potential areas of risk in the market [9][10] Group 3 - Gold is currently in an uptrend, with discussions around its price potentially reaching $5,000, reflecting a growing interest in the asset amid concerns of equity market bubbles [11][12] - Analysts suggest that the market for gold may be entering a bubble phase, necessitating cautious investment strategies, including systematic selling rather than buying [12][13] - The concept of "dollar cost selling" is introduced as a strategy for managing investments in gold during volatile market conditions [13]

Core Insights - U.S. economic growth is projected to be 3.3% for Q3 2025, indicating a significant increase in optimism regarding consumer resilience and business investment [1][2][4] Economic Growth Predictions - Traders on Kalshi predict an 83% chance of growth exceeding 2.5%, a 63% chance of exceeding 3%, and a 37% chance of exceeding 3.5% [1] - This forecast represents a notable increase from the advance GDP estimate of 3% for Q2 2025 [2] Market Sentiment and Implications - The Kalshi contract reflects reduced recession fears, suggesting a potential rebound in GDP driven by inventory restocking, federal spending, and strong consumer demand [4][5] - A GDP growth rate of 3.3% could support the "soft landing" narrative, which has positively influenced the stock market, particularly benefiting cyclical sectors like industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary [6] Investor Positioning - Equity investors may view the GDP forecast as a signal for risk-on positioning, especially following a strong earnings season [7] - The S&P 500 Index has risen nearly 40% from its year-to-date lows, with upcoming GDP data expected to be a major catalyst for U.S. stock performance for the remainder of 2025 [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its benchmark interest rate for the first time since December, aiming to support a weakening labor market, with nearly six quarter-point cuts anticipated by the end of next year [2][5] - Historically, stock gains tend to follow the initiation of an easing cycle, particularly benefiting sectors tied to the domestic economy's cyclicality, such as banks, homebuilders, and materials companies [3][4] - The small-cap Russell 2000 index is outperforming the large-cap S&P 500 this quarter, indicating that investors may be positioning themselves ahead of the anticipated rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Investors are hopeful that rate cuts will prevent further labor market weakness, creating a "Goldilocks" environment where lower rates coincide with economic stability [5] - There is a concern that the current economic outlook may be overly optimistic, with potential risks of a recession that could impact stock valuations [6] - The Federal Open Market Committee's upcoming statement and projections will be critical in determining market reactions and aligning with investor expectations [6]

Inflation Data Summary - The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, which is slightly higher than estimates [1][4] - Year-over-year inflation stands at 2.9%, with the core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.1%, both figures aligning with economists' expectations [2][66] - The service sector is identified as a significant contributor to the inflation increase, with shelter costs also rising [9][10] Market Reactions - Despite the inflation data, market futures indicate a positive outlook, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week [3][5] - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have reached record highs, reflecting investor confidence despite inflation concerns [4][68] - The Fed funds futures market is pricing in three rate cuts by December, indicating strong market expectations for monetary easing [53][68] Sector-Specific Insights - The food index increased by 0.5% in August, with food at home rising by 6%, highlighting persistent inflation in essential goods [60][61] - Airline fares saw a significant increase of 5.9%, contributing to the mixed picture of service sector inflation [63] - Apparel prices rose by 0.5%, suggesting tariff impacts on consumer goods [64][85] Employment and Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims reached 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating potential weakness in the labor market [15][76] - The Fed is balancing its dual mandate of controlling inflation while addressing employment concerns, complicating its policy decisions [13][78] Long-term Economic Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of rate cuts in the face of persistent inflation, with expectations that long-term yields may not fall significantly [32][39] - The economic environment remains challenging for lower-income Americans, as inflation continues to impact essential goods disproportionately [22][26]

Group 1: Mortgage Industry Updates - FHFA Director Pulte is involved in a controversy regarding occupancy fraud allegations, which may not impact mortgage rates significantly [1] - Chase has launched a limited-time "mortgage rate refinance sale" offering discounts on refinancing rates, with variations based on mortgage products and locations [1] - PlainsCapital Bank's "Express Funding" service allows quick loan funding with an average turnaround time of under 20 minutes, catering to mortgage lenders' efficiency needs [3] Group 2: Loan Quality and Compliance - ACES Q1 2025 Mortgage QC Industry Trends Report indicates a rise in critical defect rates, with overall defects increasing by 12.93% to 1.31%, marking the end of a two-quarter improvement streak [4] - Significant increases in specific defect categories include Income/Employment defects rising by 42.5% and Borrower and Mortgage Eligibility defects surging by 328.57% quarter-over-quarter [4] Group 3: Non-QM and Alternative Lending - Logan Finance's Asset Qualification program allows affluent clients to qualify for loans without W-2s, accepting both liquid and non-liquid assets at full value [8] - Verus Mortgage Capital has achieved over $40 billion in cumulative acquisitions and aims for a $10 billion non-agency production goal for 2025, indicating strong momentum in the non-QM market [8] Group 4: Regulatory and Market Developments - Fannie Mae's August 2025 National Housing Survey shows a slight decrease in the Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) by 0.4 points to 71.4, reflecting consumer sentiment towards housing [9] - Ongoing discussions between the Treasury and FHFA regarding the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may complicate reform efforts, with concerns about regulatory oversight and market competition [18][19]