新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 持货商继续低价清库 铜价仍维持震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-24，沪铜主力合约开于 78340元/吨，收于 78640元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.45%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78,410元/吨，收于 78,470 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.04%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯， 昨日日内采销情绪均有所回升，主因持货商继续低价清库令升水持续走跌，部分低价货源已经降低 至贴水出货。早盘盘初持货商报主流平水铜升水70元/吨，好铜升水100元/吨，随后迅速降价至升水40-80元/吨。此 时市场成交仍处于下游低价还盘状态。日内部分持货商有清库需求，积极甩货，平水附近成交低价货源，随后降 至贴水10元/吨，市场整体成交重心走弱。但日内非注册货源较少，成交贴水70-贴水40元/吨。目前季度末清库与 资金需求仍存，预计今日现货升水仍有继续走跌的可能。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美联储主席鲍威尔近期称，目前政策处于有利位置，可以观望等待再考虑利率调整。不过美联 储内部似乎仍存分歧。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，目前没有必要降息，预计今年晚 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton Core Viewpoints - The TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. The scrap copper enterprises expect future supply to be tight due to the reverse invoicing policy. The demand outlook is not optimistic, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, macro factors are variable, which may highlight the precious metal attribute of copper. Therefore, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,480 yuan/ton and closed at 78,290 yuan/ton, a 0.38% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,450 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The spot trading sentiment of Shanghai copper was weak. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper dropped to 60 - 80 yuan/ton, and that of good copper to 100 yuan/ton. Non - registered copper was at a discount of 70 - 40 yuan/ton. Due to the pressure of shipping and collecting payments, the spot premium is expected to decline further [2]. - **Important Information Summary** - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump announced that Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire agreement. Iran will start the cease - fire first, and Israel will follow 12 hours later. The war will end officially after 24 hours, leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices. In China, as of the end of May, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8% [3]. - **Mine End**: AIC Mines signed a $40 million prepayment loan and purchase agreement with Trafigura to fund the expansion of its Eloise copper processing plant. BHP signed four long - term contracts worth about A$1.5 billion with Aurizon to provide integrated logistics solutions for its copper business in South Australia, which is expected to replace about 13 million kilometers of truck transportation annually [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Ningbo Jintian Copper imported over 5,000 tons of copper from the Democratic Republic of the Congo this year, and the import volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. From January to May, the value of copper imports from Africa in Ningbo reached 9.02 billion yuan, an increase of 78.8%. In May, China's scrap copper imports were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53% [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 75.82%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 percentage points but lower than expected. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises dropped to 73.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.04 percentage points [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,125 tons to 95,875 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 8,354 tons to 25,528 tons. On June 23, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.296 million tons, a decrease of 163,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7]. - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7].