沪铜产业日报 2026/2/26 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 项目类别 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 102,670.00 | +210.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 13,275.00 | -47.50↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -260.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 184,703.00 | +74655.00↑ | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -67,640.00 | +2750.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 249,650.00 | +6475.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 272,475.00 | +23564.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 12,525.00 | +1600.00↑ | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 289,219.00 | -2856.00↓ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The market's confidence in the Fed has strengthened after the nomination of Wash as Fed Chairman, leading to a change in expectations for interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US dollar has risen, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The copper price oscillated downward last week but stopped falling and stabilized after the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system. In the short term, there is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with the price mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. In the long term, the copper price is optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: Wash's nomination as Fed Chairman has boosted the confidence in the US dollar due to the expectation of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022. The January ADP new employment was 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000, indicating weak labor market momentum. Non - farm employment data will be released this week, and Wash's interest rate cut path needs to be monitored [3]. - **Supply aspect**: In January, the copper production was 15,700 tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year due to high copper prices and low market liquidity. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [3]. - **Demand aspect**: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. After the pre - holiday copper price correction, downstream industries replenished raw materials. As the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, downstream industries entered the holiday mode, and procurement decreased [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend This week, Shanghai copper oscillated weakly, with a weekly high of 105,810 yuan/ton, a low of 97,920 yuan/ton, a weekly amplitude of 7.61%, and a range change of - 3.45% [5]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market As of February 9, the average spot premium in East China was - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 115 yuan/ton. As the copper price corrected, downstream procurement sentiment increased, and the spot discount narrowed [11]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure As of February 6, the LME copper price fell 4.02% during the week, closing at $12,900/ton, with a spot premium of - $60/ton [16]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a 7% month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year increase. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 30.365 million physical tons, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [20]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply In December 2025, China imported 239,000 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a 14.81% month - on - month and 9.88% year - on - year increase. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year, and the operating rate will continue to decline this week, with little market trading [25]. 3.7 Smelter Fees As of February 6, the domestic spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $51.23/dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to decline. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will promote copper smelting capacity governance. The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026, and the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [30]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply In January, the electrolytic copper output was 15,700 tons more than expected and is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a 21.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% year - on - year decrease [34]. 3.9 Apparent Demand As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month [38]. 3.10 Downstream Consumption - **Copper rod**: According to Mysteel's survey of 57 domestic refined copper rod sample enterprises, the capacity utilization rate in January was 54.44%, a 3.35% month - on - month and 5.93% year - on - year increase. In February, it was 34.62%, a 19.82% month - on - month and 17.76% year - on - year decrease. Some copper tube enterprises will stop production this weekend [42]. - **Power grid**: As of the end of 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a 16.1% year - on - year increase. The solar power installed capacity was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a 35.4% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 640 million kilowatts, a 22.9% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants above 6,000 kilowatts were 3,119 hours, 312 hours less than the previous year [47]. - **Real estate**: In December, the sales area of new commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a 39.87% month - on - month increase and a 16.58% year - on - year decrease. The sales volume was 880.7 billion yuan, a 44.07% month - on - month increase and a 24.24% year - on - year decrease [53]. - **Automobile**: In January 2026, the estimated wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. From January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax was changed from exemption to half - collection. The "trade - in" subsidy for heavy trucks and buses continued, and the subsidy for passenger vehicles changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy [59]. 3.11 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of February 6, the LME copper inventory increased by 8,300 tons to 171,700 tons week - on - week (a 4.74% increase), and was 26.48% lower year - on - year. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 tons, a 1.97% week - on - week increase and 488.28% higher year - on - year. - On February 5, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 120,600 tons, still increasing during the week. As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 160,200 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease, and the cathode copper inventory was 248,900 tons, a 6.83% week - on - week increase [64][69].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Views - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, but there is optimism for an upward trend in copper prices in 2026 due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [1][4] - The TC spot price continues to hit historical lows, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [1][3] - The report recommends specific companies for investment: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - As of February 6, 2026, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports is 638,000 tons, down 5.2% from the previous week [2][46] - The TC spot price is at -51.23 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.9 USD/ton from January 30, 2026, marking a low since September 2007 [3][57] - **Demand**: - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.15% as of February 5, 2026 [4][70] - Air conditioning production is projected to decline by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April 2026 [4][87] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.0% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.9% [2][24] - Global inventory across major exchanges reached 1,021,000 tons, up 3.6% from January 30, 2026 [2][24] Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,100 CNY/ton, down 3.45% from January 30, 2026, while LME copper closed at 13,060 USD/ton, down 0.08% [1][17]

铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2026-2-6 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | A | 0 | 1 | P | R | T | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the outlook for copper prices in 2026 remains positive due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of January 30, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while LME copper closed at 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [4]. - The market perceives a low probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026, which may affect overall commodity sentiment [4]. Group 2: Inventory Analysis - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 2.2%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2.6% [5]. - As of January 30, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 986,000 tons, up 2.8% from January 23 [5]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 765 CNY/ton this week [6]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Smelting and Production - China's electrolytic copper production in January 2026 was 1.1793 million tons, up 0.1% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of January 30, 2026, was -50.30 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from January 23 [7]. Group 5: Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rate to 59.46%, up 0.75 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline year-on-year by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April [8]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of January 30, 2026, the open interest for SHFE copper active contracts was 223,000 lots, down 2.6% from the previous week [9]. - The non-commercial net long position on COMEX was 48,000 lots, down 8.0% from the previous week [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend of copper prices in 2026, driven by tight supply and improving demand [4][10] - As of January 30, 2026, the SHFE copper closing price was 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while the LME copper closing price was 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [1][17] - The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper social inventory by 2.2% and an increase in LME copper inventory by 2.6% [2][25] Supply Summary - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a 0.1% increase month-on-month and a 16.3% increase year-on-year [3][65] - The TC spot price was -50.30 USD/ton, remaining at a low level since September 2007 [3][60] - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [2][46] Demand Summary - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.46% as of January 29, 2026 [4][74] - Air conditioning production for February to April 2026 is projected to decline by 31.6%, 6.5%, and increase by 4.0% year-on-year [4][92] - The report indicates that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also paying attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and temporarily stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in social inventories. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 axis and the red bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 103,060 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 13,169 dollars/ton, up 162.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 227,447 lots, down 2,310 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 66,045 lots, up 3,756 lots. LME copper inventory is 172,350 tons, up 1,825 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 225,937 tons, up 12,422 tons. The warrant of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 148,038 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,660 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,580 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 19.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,400 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 93.8 dollars/ton, down 22.73 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 49.79 dollars/kiloton, down 3.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 91,870 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan; in Yunnan is 92,570 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,040 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.9 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 25.86%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.97%, down 0.41%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 25.33%, down 0.0169%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.62, down 0.0942 [2] Industry News - The Conference Board data shows that the US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest since 2014. US Census Bureau data indicates that the US population growth slowed in 2025, increasing by only 1.8 million (0.5%) to nearly 342 million. The "Fed whisperer" says the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts with an unclear path for resuming. China's National Bureau of Statistics data shows that the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit of these enterprises turned from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. The central bank data shows that at the end of Q4 2025, the RMB real estate loan balance was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the year. The real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan for the year. The individual housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan for the year [2]

海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国12月废铜进口量为23.90万吨，环比增14.81%，同比增9.90%，再创 2025年单月新高。亚洲各国仍为主要输送国，其中日本输送量仍居榜首，环比略有下滑，泰国供应量环 比增加，韩国输送量下降偏多。据悉在铜矿供应仍然紧张的背景下，冶炼厂加强对废铜的采购。 数据来源：海关总署 （文华综合） ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Short - term Fluctuations Intensify, Long - term Bullish Trend Remains Unchanged [1] Report Author - Researcher: Wang Wei. Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03143400. Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0022141 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - Short - term bullish sentiment has weakened, and the market fluctuates greatly under the influence of funds and sentiment. However, the main bullish logic has not changed, and the long - term upward trend continues. It is recommended to control positions and protect long positions [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Macro Aspect - US CPI was lower than market expectations, which initially increased market expectations for Fed rate cuts. But Powell's criminal investigation raised concerns about the Fed's independence and hawkish stance. The short - term is hawkish, but the Fed's loose monetary policy will not change [7] Copper Ore - The negotiation of the Mantoverde copper mine incident in Chile was fruitless, and the strike will continue. The 2025 output of Mantoverde is 74,000 tons. Chinese smelters finalized the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark with Antofagasta at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound. The long - term negotiation is difficult and the progress is slow [7] Scrap Copper - Enterprises are being inspected for the compliance of "reverse invoicing". After New Year's Day, many enterprises need to red - offset some non - compliant amounts. Since Wednesday, new raw material orders of enterprises are mainly invoiced [7] Refined Copper - In December 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper output was 1.1781 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons (6.8%) and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative output from January to December was 13.4326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.372 million tons (11.38%). SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in January 2026 to be 1.1636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,500 tons (1.23%) and a year - on - year increase of 156,300 tons (14.78%) [7] Consumption - After the price slightly回调 in the second half of the week, the market's rigid demand procurement increased. Although Nvidia adjusted the data on copper demand in data centers, it has little impact on AI copper consumption. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's 4 - trillion - yuan fixed - asset investment of the State Grid Corporation provides demand support [7] Spread and Ratio - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic spread will remain in the C structure. After domestic export goods flow into the LME market, the LME's short - term squeeze risk decreases. It is expected that the ratio will deteriorate later, and the domestic export window will remain open [7] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Price Trends - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper futures and LME copper futures in 2023 - 2026, and the price changes under different events such as processing fee decline, tariff investigations, and production plan adjustments [9] 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking Copper Spot Market - As of January 15, 2026, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 47,100 tons (17.2%) to 320,900 tons compared with last Thursday, and the total inventory increased by 212,800 tons year - on - year. The domestic bonded - area copper inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 80,000 tons. The LME inventory increased to 144,000 tons [7][16] Copper Concentrate Market - On January 16, 2026, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - $46.53/ton, a decrease of $1.12/ton from the previous period. The port inventory increased to 690,400 physical tons, an increase of 50,000 physical tons from the previous period. In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and from January to December, the cumulative import was 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [32] Scrap Copper Market - As of this Friday, the scrap - refined copper price difference is 3,391 yuan/ton. This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 13.52%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 9.01 percentage points year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 902,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.18%. In November 2025, China imported 208,100 tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 19.99%, and from January to November, the cumulative import was 2.1036 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.63% [44] Blister Copper Market - On January 16, 2026, the average domestic southern blister copper processing fee was 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. In October 2025, the blister copper output was 1.0367 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.62%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.02%. In November 2025, China imported 58,300 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.47%. From January to November, the cumulative import of anode copper was 692,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.13% [50] Domestic Copper Supply - In December 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper output was 1.1781 million tons. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in January 2026 to be 1.1636 million tons. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports totaled 3.0948 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.12%, and exports totaled 692,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.68% [56] Copper Products Operating Rate - On January 15, 2026, the copper rod operating rate increased by 9.65 percentage points to 57.47%, far lower than the 70.46% of the same period last year. The operating rate of recycled copper rods declined again after a rebound. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable decreased by 0.59 percentage points to 55.99%, a decrease of 4.95 percentage points compared with the same period last year [62] Downstream Operating Rate - In December 2025, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 61.33%. It is expected to be 65.01% in January 2026. The comprehensive operating rate of the enameled wire industry in December was 66.28%, and it is expected to be 66.84% in January. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises in December was 68.89%, and it is expected to rise to 70.77% in January [76] Air - conditioner Consumption - In November 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 1.0577 million units, a year - on - year decline of 36.7%. The production schedule of household air - conditioners in January 2026 is 1.851 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11% [81] Automobile Consumption - In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million units respectively. In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 16.626 million and 16.49 million units respectively. It is predicted that the total automobile sales in 2026 will be 34.75 million units, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 19 million units [83] Grid Investment - From January to November 2025, China's grid investment completion was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's 4 - trillion - yuan fixed - asset investment of the State Grid Corporation provides demand support [86] Real Estate Market - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, a year - on - year decline of 7.8%. The national housing completion area was 394 million square meters, a year - on - year decline of 18% [93] Overseas Data - In November 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales were 2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.53%. From January to November 2025, the new energy vehicle sales in the US were 1.4681 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.71% [108] Photovoltaic and Wind Power - From January to November 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 274.98GW, a year - on - year increase of 68.59GW (33.24%). The new wind power installed capacity from January to November 2025 was 82.5GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.75GW (59.42%) [102] 3.4 Industry News and Macro Data - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, less than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The Trump administration ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. The Mantoverde copper mine strike will continue. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell. The Congolese state - owned mining company will directly purchase 100,000 tons of copper from the TFM copper - cobalt mine in 2026. Codelco expects its 2026 copper output to reach 1.344 million tons [109]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 16, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,770 CNY/ton, down 0.63% from January 9, while LME copper closed at 12,803 USD/ton, down 1.50% [1] - The report highlights that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates in January 2026 [1] - The report anticipates that supply constraints and improving demand will lead to further increases in copper prices [4] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.6% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, global inventory across the three major exchanges reached 900,000 tons, up 7.7% from January 9 [2] Supply - The TC spot price reached a historical low of -46.6 USD/ton [3] - Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [2] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 1,010 CNY/ton, indicating tighter scrap supply [2][55] Demand - The cable manufacturing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 55.99% [3] - The report notes that cable production accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] - Air conditioning production is projected to see a year-on-year increase of 11% in January 2026, followed by declines of 11.4% and 2.4% in February and March, respectively [3][95] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 24% week-on-week, with a total of 226,000 contracts as of January 16, 2026 [4] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 7.6% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]