1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - As oil prices fall, the market's pricing of Fed rate hikes may gradually correct. Given the high US debt, rate hikes are difficult to implement. Enterprises with hedging needs are advised to buy on dips for hedging, with a hedging volume of about one month [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 94,510 yuan/ton and closed at 92,100 yuan/ton, down 2.79% from the previous trading day. The night - session contract opened at 95,010 yuan/ton and closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, up 2.98% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai copper futures contract 2604 opened lower, fluctuated between 92,600 - 93,100 yuan/ton, and closed at 92,620 yuan/ton. The monthly spread fluctuated, and the import profit was between 240 - 320 yuan/ton. The sales and purchase sentiment of Shanghai electrolytic copper declined. The social inventory decreased by 41,600 tons [2]. Important Information Summary - **US - Iran Relations**: US President Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and reached a preliminary agreement to suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. However, Iran denied having talks with the US [3]. - **Fed's Stance**: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation is the main risk, not ruling out rate hikes, but if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly, rate cuts may occur later this year [3]. Mining, Smelting, Import, and Consumption - **Mining**: Power Metal Resources invested $1 million in Next Minerals, getting a 2.6% stake. Swift Mining Services also invested, and together they got 7.9% of the shares. The funds will be used for the Comahue project [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: In February 2026, China's scrap copper imports were 167,937.84 tons, down 27.72% month - on - month and 13.13% year - on - year [4]. - **Consumption**: The terminal demand shows "not - weak in peak season but increasing wait - and - see sentiment". The copper cable enterprise's operating rate is 70.52%, up 3.93 percentage points. The enameled wire industry is strong, with the operating rate at 88.93%, up 3.8 percentage points [4]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 5,125 tons to 347,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 13,737 tons to 274,115 tons. On March 23, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 467,700 tons, down 55,400 tons from the previous week [6]. Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium and Discount)**: The premium and discount of SMM 1 copper, premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper, Yangshan premium, and LME (0 - 3) are provided for different time points [27]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories, as well as SHFE warehouse receipts and LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratios are presented for different time points [28]. - **Arbitrage**: Ratios such as CU06 - CU04, CU05 - CU04, CU05/AL05, CU05/ZN05, import profit, and the Shanghai - London ratio are given for different time points [28][29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the future one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level within the range of 102,000 - 104,000 RMB per ton [3][49] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main SHFE copper contract on March 2, 2026, was 103,300 RMB per ton, a slight increase of 210 RMB or 0.2% from February 27. The discounts of premium copper, flat - grade copper, and wet - process copper all narrowed on March 2, 2026, indicating a strengthening basis. The LME (0 - 3) basis on February 27, 2026, was - 49.47 USD per ton, stronger than on February 24 [1][38] - **Position and Trading Volume**: Position and trading volume data were not provided, but the price movement of the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract on March 2, 2026, showed a 1.10% drop in 24 minutes, indicating increased market volatility and potentially expanding trading volume [39] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: In 2026, floods caused a bridge collapse in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cutting off the copper export channel and affecting one - third of the electrolytic copper export transportation of the world's second - largest producer, potentially leading to short - term supply shortages. However, the anode copper inventory days of smelters decreased to 7.92 days in February 2026, still at a relatively high level, and Southeast Copper completed its raw material procurement task in January, showing stable domestic supply [2][40] - **Demand Side**: Globally, copper demand is strong, driven by electrification, renewable energy, and AI data centers. But in the spot market, demand recovery is slow, and high copper prices suppress consumption. In the US, the surge in refined copper imports reflects strategic inventory accumulation [2][43] - **Inventory Side**: LME inventory increased to 295,881 tons on March 2, 2026, a 1.82% increase; SHFE inventory slightly increased, and COMEX inventory also rose, indicating overall inventory accumulation [2][51] Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Supply - side issues may cause short - term shortages, but high smelter inventories and stable domestic supply provide a buffer. Global demand growth supports prices, but slow spot recovery and high copper prices limit consumption. Supply issues boost the shortage expectation in the macro - mood, but inventory accumulation and weak demand restrict the upside space. The price range is expected to be between 102,000 and 104,000 RMB per ton [3][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Aspect**: On the 22nd, the US Customs and Border Protection Bureau (CBP) announced that it would stop imposing tariffs levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act starting from February 24th, Eastern Time. On the 20th, Trump announced a 10% import tariff on global goods for 150 days under Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court's ruling. On February 28th, the Iran-US conflict broke out, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader. Currently, military operations are still ongoing, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked after Iran's military retaliation [6]. - **Supply Aspect**: In February, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 36,900 tons month-on-month, a decline of 3.13%, and increased by 7.96% year-on-year, 1,100 tons lower than the expected value. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. Since many enterprises that underwent maintenance in January will resume production in March and new smelters will increase production, the production in March may reach a record high. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the domestic demand for scrap copper is expected to increase. However, domestic policies are disrupting the scrap copper industry chain. As demand grows, the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports [6]. - **Demand Aspect**: Copper prices have been rising continuously, and downstream terminals have a strong resistance to high prices. The demand from the copper product sector has weakened. Currently, it is the off-season for the industry, combined with high copper prices. It is expected that the performance of downstream copper products will continue to be under pressure. According to SMM, in January 2026, the operating rate of Chinese copper rod enterprises dropped to 61%, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises dropped to only 20%, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises remained at 88.5%, almost unchanged month-on-month, and the operating rate of domestic copper strip enterprises was about 70% [6]. - **Comprehensive View**: Shanghai copper fluctuated within a narrow range during the month. During the month, it was affected by the news that the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include copper concentrates in the copper resource reserve, as well as the impact of US tariff disturbances and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Guided by the global asset risk aversion sentiment, high copper prices affected the downstream's purchasing and inventory - building. In terms of supply, although the shortage of copper concentrates remained, domestic copper production remained at a high level, and even higher production may occur in March. The actual supply - demand of copper showed an oversupply. The data of the terminal automobile and real estate sectors were sluggish. The subsequent performance may depend on the policy expectations brought by major domestic meetings in March. Recently, copper prices have been mostly affected by their macro - financial attributes. The strengthening of the US dollar under the recent Middle East geopolitical conflicts may suppress copper prices. After the sentiment gradually eases, copper prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate mainly, and be bullish in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Supply - side Data - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. From January to December, China's cumulative imports of copper ore and concentrates reached 30.365 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.8%. On February 6th, Canadian mining giant Capstone Copper announced that the largest union at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile had approved a new three - year labor contract, ending the strike that started on January 2nd [14]. - **Smelter Fees**: As of February 28th, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 50.96 US dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee was - 5.01 US cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to decline, while the sulfuric acid price still maintained an upward trend. Precious metals soared due to geopolitical conflicts, and the profits from smelter by - products were maintained. The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) announced that its members would jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. On December 19th, Chinese copper smelter representatives and international mining giant Antofagasta finalized the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee (Benchmark) at 0 US dollars per ton and 0 US cents per pound, a historic "zero" compared to 21.25 US dollars per ton and 2.125 US cents per pound in 2025 [18]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: According to SMM data, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises this week was 2.15%, a month - on - month increase of 2.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 31.52 percentage points. The resumption time of factories was postponed compared to the pre - holiday expected time, which may affect the output of finished products. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China's imports of recycled copper raw materials reached 239,000 tons, and the imports at each customs showed significant differentiation. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the domestic demand for scrap copper is expected to increase. However, domestic policies are disrupting the scrap copper industry chain. As demand grows, the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports [22]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In February, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 36,900 tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.13%, and increased by 7.96% year - on - year, 1,100 tons lower than the expected value. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. Since many enterprises that underwent maintenance in January will resume production in March and new smelters will increase production, the production in March may reach a record high. In December 2025, the imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a 21.8% decrease compared to December 2024. From January to December 2025, the cumulative imports were 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% decrease compared to January - December 2024 [26]. Copper Demand Status - **Apparent Demand**: Copper prices have been rising continuously, and downstream terminals have a strong resistance to high prices. The demand from the copper product sector has weakened. Currently, it is the off - season for the industry, combined with high copper prices. It is expected that the performance of downstream copper products will continue to be under pressure. According to SMM, in January 2026, the operating rate of Chinese copper rod enterprises dropped to 61%, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises dropped to only 20%, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises remained at 88.5%, almost unchanged month - on - month, and the operating rate of domestic copper strip enterprises was about 70% [33]. - **Power Grid Project Data**: In 2025, China's total social electricity consumption exceeded 10 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time, reaching 10.37 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, ranking first in the world in terms of electricity consumption. It is expected that in 2026, China's total social electricity consumption will be between 10.9 and 11 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5% - 6%. The maximum unified power load throughout the year is expected to be between 15.7 and 16.3 billion kilowatts. The newly added power generation capacity in 2026 is expected to exceed 400 million kilowatts, among which the newly added new - energy power generation capacity is expected to exceed 300 million kilowatts. It is expected that the installed capacity of solar power generation will exceed that of coal - fired power generation for the first time in 2026. By the end of the year, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power generation will reach half of the total power generation capacity, and the proportion of coal - fired power in the total installed capacity will drop to about 31% [37]. - **Household Appliance Demand**: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 21.629 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; the national refrigerator production was 10.011 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%; the national washing - machine production was 11.975 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the national color - TV production was 19.521 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. There were promotional activities at the end of the year, but the increase in market consumption was limited [41]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure Data**: In January, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 20.08% year - on - year, and the decline was slightly narrowed by 2.08 percentage points compared to the previous month. The real estate sector was still in a drag state. Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Real Estate Policies in this City" ("Shanghai Seven Articles"), which came into effect on February 26, 2026. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.58%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 880.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 44.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.24% [46]. - **Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data**: According to data from the Passenger Car Association, from February 1st to 8th, the new - energy retail penetration rate in the national passenger - car market was 36.4%; from February 1st to 8th, the new - energy wholesale penetration rate of national passenger - car manufacturers was 43.9%. From February 1st to 8th, the new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 39% compared to the same period in February last year and a 3% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative wholesale volume has been 989,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1%. In January, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million units respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Among them, the new - energy automobile market operated stably, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively. In addition, the commercial - vehicle market continued to show a positive trend. In January, both production and sales maintained double - digit year - on - year growth. In January, automobile exports continued to grow. Among them, new - energy automobile exports maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 units exported, a year - on - year increase of 100%. Since January 1st, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax has changed from exemption to half - reduction. On December 30th, the "Notice on Implementing the Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in Policy in 2026" was issued, stating that the "trade - in" subsidy for heavy - duty trucks and buses will continue, with the subsidy scope and standards the same as in 2025. The subsidy for passenger cars has changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy, with the subsidy ceiling unchanged. The subsidy for low - price cars has been reduced, and the subsidy makes up for part of the reduction caused by the increase in the purchase tax [50]. Copper Inventory Data - **Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories**: As of February 27, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 253,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The COMEX copper inventory was 601,500 short tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.11% and a year - on - year increase of 525.19%. After the C - L spread converged, the LME copper inventory warrants began to increase. Currently, it is about to increase to a level higher than the same period last year. The global overall inventory shows an accumulation of inventory, which suppresses the rise of copper prices. At present, there is no short - term expectation for the US refined copper tariff to be issued, and the marginal effect of the US copper siphon is weakening [56]. - **Copper Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange and Bonded Areas**: As of February 27, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic copper futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 290,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 137,939 tons, an increase of 90.36%, and a year - on - year increase of 87.87%. During the Chinese New Year, most downstream enterprises stopped production, while the reduction in the supply side was limited, resulting in a significant accumulation of copper inventory. On February 26th, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 99,300 tons. The inventory in the bonded areas continued to increase during the week, mainly because some export goods from smelters arrived and were stored in the warehouse, but the quantity was relatively small, and the inventory accumulation was limited [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals has the copper concentrate TC spot index running at a low level, and the expectation of tight ore still provides solid support for copper prices. On the supply side, smelters shut down during the holiday and the number of production days is relatively small. Coupled with the tightening of the import window, the arrival volume has decreased, and the domestic copper supply has decreased. On the demand side, after the holiday is the traditional domestic consumption peak season, and with the support of policies for consumption, the overall industry expectation is positive. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.72, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0062, the option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The conclusion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 102,670 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 210 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,275 dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 47.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 260 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 184,703 lots, a daily increase of 74,655 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 67,640 lots, a daily increase of 2,750 lots. The LME copper inventory is 249,650 tons, a daily increase of 6,475 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 272,475 tons, a weekly increase of 23,564 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 12,525 tons, a daily increase of 1,600 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 289,219 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 601,037 short tons, a daily decrease of 528 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 101,795 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 270 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 102,045 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 100 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 47.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 50.5 dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 0.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 875 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 480 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 months spread is - 76.52 dollars/ton, a daily increase of 11.68 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons per month, a monthly increase of 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 50.53 dollars per thousand tons, a weekly increase of 1.84 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 92,340 yuan per metal ton, a daily decrease of 100 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 93,040 yuan per metal ton, a daily decrease of 100 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons per month, a monthly increase of 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons per month, a monthly increase of 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,290 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,200 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 150 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons per month, a monthly increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan per month, a monthly increase of 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan per month, a monthly increase of 41.9724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, a monthly increase of 415,345,500 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 44.09%, a daily increase of 0%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 36.53%, a daily decrease of 0.09%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 26%, a daily increase of 0.0047. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.72, a daily decrease of 0.0062 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that the United States will continue to promote the 301 investigation into China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement and may take tariff measures. Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with German Chancellor Merz. China is willing to strengthen strategic docking and policy communication with Germany, expand bilateral trade, and promote cooperation in emerging fields. The China - Germany joint press statement emphasizes deepening mutually beneficial and win - win cooperation. The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that the inventory of the national passenger car industry at the end of January was 3.57 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 580,000 vehicles. The Fujian Provincial Department of Commerce and other 9 departments issued the implementation rules for automobile trade - in in Fujian Province in 2026, providing subsidies for new energy and fuel vehicle trade - in [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The market's confidence in the Fed has strengthened after the nomination of Wash as Fed Chairman, leading to a change in expectations for interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US dollar has risen, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The copper price oscillated downward last week but stopped falling and stabilized after the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system. In the short term, there is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with the price mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. In the long term, the copper price is optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: Wash's nomination as Fed Chairman has boosted the confidence in the US dollar due to the expectation of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. The US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022. The January ADP new employment was 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000, indicating weak labor market momentum. Non - farm employment data will be released this week, and Wash's interest rate cut path needs to be monitored [3]. - **Supply aspect**: In January, the copper production was 15,700 tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year due to high copper prices and low market liquidity. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [3]. - **Demand aspect**: As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. After the pre - holiday copper price correction, downstream industries replenished raw materials. As the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, downstream industries entered the holiday mode, and procurement decreased [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend This week, Shanghai copper oscillated weakly, with a weekly high of 105,810 yuan/ton, a low of 97,920 yuan/ton, a weekly amplitude of 7.61%, and a range change of - 3.45% [5]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market As of February 9, the average spot premium in East China was - 10 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 115 yuan/ton. As the copper price corrected, downstream procurement sentiment increased, and the spot discount narrowed [11]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure As of February 6, the LME copper price fell 4.02% during the week, closing at $12,900/ton, with a spot premium of - $60/ton [16]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a 7% month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year increase. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 30.365 million physical tons, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system and consider including copper concentrates in the reserve [20]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply In December 2025, China imported 239,000 physical tons of copper scrap and waste, a 14.81% month - on - month and 9.88% year - on - year increase. Recycling copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year, and the operating rate will continue to decline this week, with little market trading [25]. 3.7 Smelter Fees As of February 6, the domestic spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $51.23/dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to decline. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will promote copper smelting capacity governance. The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026, and the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [30]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply In January, the electrolytic copper output was 15,700 tons more than expected and is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month (a 3.04% decline) and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a 21.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% year - on - year decrease [34]. 3.9 Apparent Demand As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month [38]. 3.10 Downstream Consumption - **Copper rod**: According to Mysteel's survey of 57 domestic refined copper rod sample enterprises, the capacity utilization rate in January was 54.44%, a 3.35% month - on - month and 5.93% year - on - year increase. In February, it was 34.62%, a 19.82% month - on - month and 17.76% year - on - year decrease. Some copper tube enterprises will stop production this weekend [42]. - **Power grid**: As of the end of 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a 16.1% year - on - year increase. The solar power installed capacity was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a 35.4% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 640 million kilowatts, a 22.9% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants above 6,000 kilowatts were 3,119 hours, 312 hours less than the previous year [47]. - **Real estate**: In December, the sales area of new commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a 39.87% month - on - month increase and a 16.58% year - on - year decrease. The sales volume was 880.7 billion yuan, a 44.07% month - on - month increase and a 24.24% year - on - year decrease [53]. - **Automobile**: In January 2026, the estimated wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. From January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax was changed from exemption to half - collection. The "trade - in" subsidy for heavy trucks and buses continued, and the subsidy for passenger vehicles changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy [59]. 3.11 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of February 6, the LME copper inventory increased by 8,300 tons to 171,700 tons week - on - week (a 4.74% increase), and was 26.48% lower year - on - year. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 tons, a 1.97% week - on - week increase and 488.28% higher year - on - year. - On February 5, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 120,600 tons, still increasing during the week. As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 160,200 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease, and the cathode copper inventory was 248,900 tons, a 6.83% week - on - week increase [64][69].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Views - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, but there is optimism for an upward trend in copper prices in 2026 due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [1][4] - The TC spot price continues to hit historical lows, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [1][3] - The report recommends specific companies for investment: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - As of February 6, 2026, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports is 638,000 tons, down 5.2% from the previous week [2][46] - The TC spot price is at -51.23 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.9 USD/ton from January 30, 2026, marking a low since September 2007 [3][57] - **Demand**: - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.15% as of February 5, 2026 [4][70] - Air conditioning production is projected to decline by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April 2026 [4][87] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.0% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.9% [2][24] - Global inventory across major exchanges reached 1,021,000 tons, up 3.6% from January 30, 2026 [2][24] Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,100 CNY/ton, down 3.45% from January 30, 2026, while LME copper closed at 13,060 USD/ton, down 0.08% [1][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Copper prices will continue to adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to precious metal price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the upward trend of copper prices will remain unchanged [5][52] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US manufacturing index reached a new high since August 2022, while the service index declined slightly. US ADP employment was lower than expected, and the release of the non - farm employment report was postponed. The large - scale selling of the world's largest silver leveraged ETF added selling pressure to the precious metal market, and market risk appetite was poor [5][12] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to improve the copper reserve system, expand the national strategic copper reserve scale, and explore a commercial reserve mechanism. It also considers including copper concentrates in the reserve scope [5] - Globally, copper mine supply is facing structural challenges, and the supply of copper concentrates is expected to have a significant gap in 2026. In China, refined copper production remained high in December 2025, and there were plans for smelter overhauls in January 2026 [5][20][25] - The import volume of scrap copper in China reached a new monthly high in December 2025. The production enthusiasm of refined copper rod enterprises declined significantly in December 2025, and the increase in production in January 2026 was limited [25][29][33] - The refined - scrap copper price difference was at a high level, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption. The inventory of global electrolytic copper increased significantly, and the discount range of domestic and foreign copper spot prices decreased [36][44][49] - The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, but there may be policies to improve and stabilize expectations. China's automobile production and sales reached a new high in 2025, and the new - energy vehicle market continued to grow. The new photovoltaic installation scale is expected to decline in 2026 and then return to an upward trend [39][41] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged [8] - **Bearish factors**: Refined copper production remains at a high level, refined copper inventory continues to accumulate, precious metals continue to decline, and market risk appetite is poor [8] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper mine supply**: In 2025, global copper mine supply was severely disrupted, and the supply of copper concentrates had a large gap. The supply is expected to decline in 2026 and turn to a more relaxed state in 2027 [20] - **Copper concentrate TC**: The spot TC/RC of copper concentrates is in a deep negative range, and the profit of the smelting end is under pressure. Chile has postponed the goal of annual copper production exceeding 6 million tons and lowered production expectations [23] - **Refined copper production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. In January 2026, there were plans for smelter overhauls and new plant startups [25] - **Scrap copper import**: In December 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.90%, reaching a new monthly high in 2025 [29] - **Refined copper rod production**: In December 2025, the production of refined copper rods in China decreased significantly, and the production increase in January 2026 was limited [33] - **Refined - scrap copper price difference**: As of February 5, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 3,380 yuan/ton, remaining at a high level, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption [36] - **Electrolytic copper inventory**: The inventory of LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper increased, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper also increased [45] - **Copper spot premium**: On February 5, the premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper spot was around - 105 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around 77.58 US dollars/ton, with the discount range narrowing [49] 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices will continue to adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to precious metal price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the upward trend of copper prices will remain unchanged [52]

Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the outlook for copper prices in 2026 remains positive due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of January 30, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while LME copper closed at 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [4]. - The market perceives a low probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026, which may affect overall commodity sentiment [4]. Group 2: Inventory Analysis - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 2.2%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2.6% [5]. - As of January 30, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 986,000 tons, up 2.8% from January 23 [5]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 765 CNY/ton this week [6]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Smelting and Production - China's electrolytic copper production in January 2026 was 1.1793 million tons, up 0.1% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of January 30, 2026, was -50.30 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from January 23 [7]. Group 5: Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rate to 59.46%, up 0.75 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline year-on-year by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April [8]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of January 30, 2026, the open interest for SHFE copper active contracts was 223,000 lots, down 2.6% from the previous week [9]. - The non-commercial net long position on COMEX was 48,000 lots, down 8.0% from the previous week [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend of copper prices in 2026, driven by tight supply and improving demand [4][10] - As of January 30, 2026, the SHFE copper closing price was 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while the LME copper closing price was 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [1][17] - The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper social inventory by 2.2% and an increase in LME copper inventory by 2.6% [2][25] Supply Summary - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a 0.1% increase month-on-month and a 16.3% increase year-on-year [3][65] - The TC spot price was -50.30 USD/ton, remaining at a low level since September 2007 [3][60] - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [2][46] Demand Summary - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.46% as of January 29, 2026 [4][74] - Air conditioning production for February to April 2026 is projected to decline by 31.6%, 6.5%, and increase by 4.0% year-on-year [4][92] - The report indicates that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also paying attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and temporarily stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in social inventories. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 axis and the red bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 103,060 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 13,169 dollars/ton, up 162.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 227,447 lots, down 2,310 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 66,045 lots, up 3,756 lots. LME copper inventory is 172,350 tons, up 1,825 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 225,937 tons, up 12,422 tons. The warrant of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 148,038 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,660 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,580 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 19.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,400 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 93.8 dollars/ton, down 22.73 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 49.79 dollars/kiloton, down 3.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 91,870 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan; in Yunnan is 92,570 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,040 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.9 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 25.86%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.97%, down 0.41%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 25.33%, down 0.0169%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.62, down 0.0942 [2] Industry News - The Conference Board data shows that the US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest since 2014. US Census Bureau data indicates that the US population growth slowed in 2025, increasing by only 1.8 million (0.5%) to nearly 342 million. The "Fed whisperer" says the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts with an unclear path for resuming. China's National Bureau of Statistics data shows that the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit of these enterprises turned from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. The central bank data shows that at the end of Q4 2025, the RMB real estate loan balance was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the year. The real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan for the year. The individual housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan for the year [2]