1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, and the short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The potential merger of mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore may increase their control of the global copper resource supply share to 15%, highlighting the tightness in the copper mine segment. There are concerns about the US advancing the proposal of refined copper tariffs, which may disrupt the balance of copper resources in other regions. The downstream spot demand is suppressed by high - priced copper, resulting in a structure of strong expectations but weak reality for copper. With the increase in copper prices, the downstream's acceptance of high prices may improve. Copper is expected to have a phased correction and a long - term upward trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: The US added only 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, below the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low. China's CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year [3]. - **Supply aspect**: In 2026, copper smelters cannot profit from long - term contracts, and the spot market is weak. The by - products such as sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit points. The refined copper production is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and one delayed commissioning [3]. - **Demand aspect**: The terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper products segment is cautious. High prices and the expectation of year - end holidays slow down the raw material procurement. Copper inventories have increased significantly. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 111,200 tons, a weekly increase of 36%; the cathode copper inventory was 180,000 tons, a weekly increase of 24.22% [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose. The weekly high was 105,500 yuan/ton, the low was 98,700 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 6.85%, and the interval increase was 3.23% [6]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of January 9, the average premium/discount of East China cathode copper was 0 yuan/ton, and the average premium of South China was 5 yuan/ton. The downstream's willingness to take delivery was weak, and the holders' willingness to sell at a discount was low [11]. 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of January 9, LME copper rose 3.84% within the week, closing at $12,990/ton, with a spot premium of $70/ton [16]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - Rio Tinto and Glencore restarted merger negotiations. If the deal is completed, their share of the global copper resource supply may reach 15%. A Canadian copper miner's Chilean mine went on strike, with an expected 70% drop in production. In 2025, China's import of copper ore and concentrates is expected to be 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% [22]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - In November 2025, the scrap copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.92%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.51%. The operating rate of recycled copper rods this week was 12.99%, a decrease of 1.72% from last week. The scrap copper substitution advantage is significant, but the transaction is blocked due to weak downstream demand [27]. 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of January 9, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $45.1/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.60 cents/pound. The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [31]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In December 2025, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, a 6.8% increase. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons, a 11.38% increase. In January 2026, the refined copper production is expected to decline. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [35]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of November 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.2681 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous month [39]. 3.10 Copper Product Production - In December 2025, the actual production of domestic refined copper rods was 809,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.36%. It is expected to be 873,300 tons in January 2026. The total production of domestic copper tubes in December 2025 was 142,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons but a year - on - year decrease of 43,500 tons [43]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4% [47]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to November 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; the sales volume was 7.513 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [53]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In December 2025, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.337 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to December were 12.809 million, a 17.6% increase. In December 2025, the retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles were 920,000, a year - on - year decrease of 30% and a month - on - month increase of 2% [59]. 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - As of January 9, the LME copper inventory decreased by 6,350 tons to 139,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 47.35%. The COMEX copper inventory was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.63% and a year - on - year increase of 434.28%. As of January 8, the copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 115,200 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 111,200 tons, a weekly increase of 36%; the cathode copper inventory was 180,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.22% [64][69]

2026 年 1 月 11 日 行业研究 TC 现货价创历史新低，铜精矿现货延续紧张 ——铜行业周报（20260105-20260109） 要点 本周小结： 2026 年供需偏紧仍支持铜价上行。截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 101410 元/吨，环比 1 月 2 日+3.23%；截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，LME 铜收盘价 12998 美元/吨，环比 1 月 2 日+4.31%。（1）宏观：市场对美联储 2026 年 1 月不降息已经基本定价。（2）供需：TC 现货创新低，显示铜精矿现 货采购依然紧张；线缆企业周度开工率继续下降，国内社会库存继续增长，铜价 大涨对需求有压制；但展望 2026 年，供需依然偏紧，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+14.6%，LME 铜库存环比-2.5%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 64.0 万吨，环比上周-0.8%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，全球三大交易所库存合计 83.8 万 吨，环比 12 月 31 日+6.2%。截至 1 月 8 日，LME ...

你看像广东佛山、清远这些地方，报价总是比较"跳脱"。这跟地方经济结构分不开。那边工厂密，特别是需要大量铜材的先进制造企业多，他们"胃口"大， 要得急，自然就把收购价给抬上去了。而且南方整个回收网络织得密，信息流转快，市场一有风吹草动，反应特别灵敏。他们那边库存听说一直不算厚实， 这下需求一旺，可不就显得货更紧俏了嘛。 嘿，各位收废铜、搞回收的同行们，今儿个咱们来唠唠这市场上的热乎气儿！眼瞅着这废铜价格就跟开了春的笋似的，蹭蹭往上冒，特别是那些好料子，像 光亮铜、紫杂铜，真是抢手。这行情到底为啥这么火？背后有啥门道？咱们一起掰扯掰扯。 这波涨价，到底是啥在背后推着？ 要我说啊，这回涨价可不是空穴来风。首先得看"大盘子"，就是期货市场那边，铜价一挺腰杆，咱们这边废铜的底气自然就足了，这是最直接的风向标。再 者呢，下游那些工厂，尤其是做新能源配件、电子元件的，最近活儿好像多起来了，他们一开工，对铜料的需求"嗷"一下就上来了。咱们手里的废铜，正好 对上了他们的胃口，价格能不上浮吗？这就好比赶集，买东西的人一多，卖货的嗓门都亮堂。 南方市场为啥总是跑在前头？ 往后看，这行情能稳得住吗？ 说实话，谁也没法打保票。不过可以 ...

2026 年 1 月 4 日 行业研究 2025 年 12 月电线电缆企业开工率创近 6 年同期新低 ——铜行业周报（20251229-20260102） 要点 本周小结：短期铜价震荡， 2026 年供需偏紧仍支持铜价上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 98240 元/吨，环比 12 月 26 日+2.23%；截至 2026 年 1 月 2 日，LME 铜收盘价 12461 美元/吨，环比 12 月 24 日+3.36%。（1） 宏观：美国铜关税预期仍导致全球铜库存持续流向美国，COMEX 铜库存持续新 高。（2）供需：国家发改委 12 月 26 日强调对铜冶炼等产业强化管理和优化布 局，中国铜冶炼产能增长或受限。12 月线缆企业开工率创近 6 年新低，铜价大 涨对需求有压制；但展望 2026 年，供需依然偏紧，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+23%，LME 铜库存环比-7%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至2025年12月31日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存64.6 万吨，环比上周-16.7%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，全球三大交易所库存合 ...

Market Overview - The average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper for the week ending December 27, 2025, ranged from 93,470 to 97,740 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend during the week [2][10] - SMM's premium/discount quotes ranged from -340 to -195 yuan/ton, maintaining a discount throughout the week [2][10] - LME inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons to 157,000 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1.59 million tons to 111,700 tons [2][10] - Domestic social inventory (excluding bonded zones) rose by 2.52 million tons to 193,600 tons, and bonded zone inventory decreased by 0.12 million tons to 75,400 tons [2][10] - Comex inventory increased by 2.07 million tons to 482,900 tons [2][10] Macroeconomic Insights - In the week ending December 27, 2025, U.S. core capital goods orders and shipments rebounded [3][11] - The offshore RMB broke the "7" mark against the USD for the first time in 15 months [3][11] - The risk of military conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated due to missile issues [3][11] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that they are nearing their inflation target and may continue to raise interest rates [3][11] Mining Sector - The SMM imported copper concentrate index reported -44.9 USD/dry ton, down by 1.25 USD from the previous period [3][12] - Market trading was quiet due to the Christmas holiday, with foreign suppliers on break [3][12] - Kaz Minerals has reduced direct supply of copper concentrate to China, with remaining supplies to be circulated through traders [3][12] - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine union plans to strike on December 29 if labor negotiations fail, with a projected copper output of 22,000 tons in 2024 [3][12] Smelting and Import Dynamics - The average transaction price for Yangshan copper premium was 53.4 USD/ton, up 4.4 USD week-on-week [4][13] - The average price for warehouse receipts was 53.6 USD/ton, up 10.6 USD week-on-week [4][13] - The import loss was approximately 1,400 yuan/ton as of December 24, with mainstream warehouse and bill prices ranging from 40 to 50 USD/ton [4][13] Scrap Copper Market - Copper prices surged, with Shanghai copper reaching a peak of 99,730 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 6,000 yuan [5][14] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed before rebounding to 3,944 yuan/ton, showing weak follow-through in scrap copper prices [5][14] - Market liquidity is tight due to sellers holding back, and downstream purchasing remains cautious [5][14] Consumption Trends - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 60.73%, down 2.34 percentage points [6][15] - High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, leading to fewer new orders and a continued weak market [6][15] - The operating rate for copper cable enterprises was 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points [6][15] Strategic Outlook - The strategy for copper is cautiously bullish, with recommendations for downstream enterprises to focus on demand-based hedging [7][16] - If prices fall between 94,000 and 95,000 yuan/ton, it is suggested to increase buying hedging [7][16]

（文华综合） 海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国11月废铜进口量为20.81万吨，环比增加5.8%，同比增加19.9%，为 2025年单月新高。日本、泰国、韩国、马来西亚等主要供应国输送都有增加。 数据来源：海关总署 ...

2025 年 12 月 21 日 行业研究 COMEX 铜非商业净多头持仓处于 1990 年以来 87%分位数 ——铜行业周报（20251215-20251219） 要点 本周小结：继续看好铜价上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 93180 元/吨，环比 12 月 12 日-0.96%；LME 铜收盘价 11882 美元/吨，环比 12 月 12 日+2.85%。（1）宏观：美国 11 月失业率达 4.6%，2026 年 1 月降息概率环比 回升。（2）供需：据 SMM，中国冶炼厂与安托法加斯塔敲定 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长单 Benchmark 为 0 美元/吨（本周 TC 现货价为-44 美元/吨），铜冶炼厂利 润或好于预期。线缆企业开工率本周略有回升，Q4 电网旺季效应仍存；Q4 空调 排产同比下降，但环比改善；供需仍维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+1.7%，LME 铜库存环比-3.3%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 73.1 万吨，环比上周-4.3%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 202 ...

二月下旬，特朗普命令商务部启动安全审查，瞄准进口铜对美国经济的隐患，大家都猜这是为加税铺 路。七月底公告落地，八月起半成品铜和相关产品一律50%关税。 贸易商赶紧把货转向美国港口，避免多掏腰包。托克和嘉能可这些大户带头行动，原计划去亚洲的船队 改道新奥尔良和巴尔的摩。 短短几个月，五十万吨铜堆积如山，比平时月均进口多出七倍。仓库紧急扩容，企业主抢着囤货，生怕 价格再上窜。 美国本土铜业本就疲软，产量跟不上消费，依赖智利和加拿大六成多。这关税本想护着自家产业复苏， 可现实是库存爆棚，供需彻底乱套。 本土供应商被迫甩卖，矿场减产，工人日子难过。铜价在纽约交易所比伦敦高出一千四百美元一吨，套 利机会吸引更多货流进来。 全球链条跟着受影响，原本均衡的供应被抽走，其他地区开始闹荒。中国作为头号买家，首当其冲，新 能源和电网项目用铜本就紧，这下采购成本直线上窜。 中国八成五铜矿靠进口，电动车和太阳能设备年需求还在涨。可铜价从年初八千多美元一吨窜到纪录高 位，工厂主们咬牙扛着，中小企业先顶不住，生产线慢下来。 废铜渠道也堵塞，美国出口几乎枯竭，本该缓冲市场的环节失效。上海期货交易所逆价差拉大，现货比 远期贵，显示供应吃紧。 ...

铜：新高之后，再上层楼？20251215 摘要 美国关税政策（5%至 2028 年 30%）引发国际铜材抢购，非美地区供 应短缺，美国锁定超额库存，加剧非美地区紧张，导致 LME 铜价预测上 调。 铜价上涨的长期基本面支撑是资本开支不足导致的供给短缺。预计到 2028 年，为满足平衡所需的激励价格可能决定长期均衡价格在每吨 1 万美元以上，实际价格可能更高。 短期内，关税驱动的库存流动和贸易商囤货导致交易所交割紧张，短缺 预期超过现货影响，流动性和基本面共同推动投机情绪，推高铜价。 美国降息预期带来宏观利好，美铜虹吸效应导致全球库存错配。美国锁 定大量库存缓解精炼铜过剩压力，奠定全球库存结构性失衡基础，支撑 铜价。 套利交易源于美国对精炼铜加征关税预期，跨市价差抬升，COMEX 系 统维持 contango 形态，支撑向美国运送精炼铜套利行为，导致非美地 区短缺。 中国冶炼厂出口意愿高，LME 对逼仓风险管控严格，高额常态溢价促使 下游买家囤积，这些因素限制了实质性的逼仓风险。 美国冶炼和加工产能不足，依赖精炼铜进口。即使实施关税扶持本土产 能，内生增长仍然困难，新建项目审批流程限制产能扩张。 Q&A 近期全 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 加工费谈判仍在拉锯中 铜价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-15，沪铜主力合约开于 93500元/吨，收于 92400元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.79%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 93,500元/吨，收于 92,250 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.01%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价贴水30至升水150元/吨，均价升水60元/吨，较前一日上涨80元。现货价 格区间为92070-92460元/吨。今日为当月合约2512的最后交易日，报价继续沿用当月合约标准。盘面主力合约基本 运行于92090-92330元/吨，次月2601合约区间为92200-92510元/吨，跨月价差在C200至C100之间。由于最后交易日 与年度长单基本结束重叠，市场交易情绪整体平淡，贸易活跃度下降。尽管铜价日内下跌近千元，但绝对价格仍 高于92000元/吨，下游采购意愿较弱。持货商早间对次月报价平水铜贴水100元/吨、好铜贴水50元/吨左右，午后进 一步走扩至贴水130元和80元。今日，上海地区库存仅小幅累积，反映国产与进口补 ...