沪铜产业日报 2025/8/27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 79,190.00 | 0.00 LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,789.50 | -47.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | -10.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 174,997.00 | -491.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -12,244.00 | -1967.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 155,000.00 | -975.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 81,698.00 | -4663.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 13,250.00 | +1500.00↑ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 21,287.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 79,545.00 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-27 矿端方面，Capstone Copper周一表示，其位于美国亚利桑那州的Pinto Valley铜矿已获得Copper Mark认证，Copper Mark是铜行业内的一项保障框架，旨在认证铜矿生产企业是否符合负责任的运营实践标准。这一认可使Pinto Valley 成为继2023年在智利的Mantooverde和Mantos Blancos矿场之后第三个获得该奖项的矿场。该铜矿拥有亚利桑那州迈 阿密环球区唯一一家运营中的铜矿厂，自1975年首次记录产量以来，该矿已生产40多亿磅铜，其中包括5亿磅阴极 铜。此外，外电8月25日消息，第一量子矿业有限公司宣布，因一项10亿美元的金矿交易缓解了资产负债表压力， 该公司已搁置出售其赞比亚铜矿minority少数股权的计划。2024年初，第一量子矿业曾表示正考虑出售其在赞比亚 Kansanshi和Sentinel两座铜矿的少数股权——此前在2023年底，该公司位于巴拿马的旗舰矿山被迫关闭，导致运营 压力陡增。首席执行官特Tristan Pascall表示，本月将Kansanshi的部分黄金产量出售给Royal Gold ...

有色金属周报(电解铜) 特朗普或将掌控美联储增强降息预期， 全球电解铜总库存量初现下降支撑铜价 2025年8月26日 电解铜 宏源期货研究所 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 电解铜 宏观：进口关税推升商品价格致美国7月生产端通胀PPI年率和消费端通胀核心CPI年率有所升高，但是美联 储主席鲍威尔因就业供需双弱而表示风险平衡点变化可能要求调整政策，使美联储9月降息预期有所升温，但仍 需关注9月5日和11日美国8月新增非农就业人数及消费者物价指数CPI。 上游：国内8月铜精矿生产(进口)量环比增加(增加) ；欧洲高品质废铜被限制出口使中国进口商仅能采购铜 米或黄铜，中美关税谈判不确定性使贸易商对美国废铜直接进口低迷而通过日韩泰等国中转供给，国内电解铜与 光亮及老化废铜价差为负或削弱废铜经济性，废铜进口窗口关闭，或使国内废铜8月生产(进口)量环比增加(减少) 而供需预期偏紧； 江西科力铜业一期15万吨阳极板项目（二期25万吨铜杆和三期20万吨阴极铜与铜合金项目）1号熔炼炉于8月 11日点火，中国北方（南方）粗铜周度加工费环比持平（下降），中国废产阳极板产能开工率较上周下降，国内 冶炼厂8月粗炼检修 ...

铜：坚定看好铜板块投资机会及铜框架梳理 20250825 摘要 配置。从需求端来看，随着 8 月份淡季结束，从 9 月份开始将进入交易旺季， 到整个四季度需求预计会比三季度尤其是 7~8 月份更好。今年三季度由于抢出 口和光伏抢装等因素导致需求透支严重，加上高温天气使得 7~8 月成为传统淡 季，但实际数据表现优于预期。 铜价与权益市场之间存在何种关系？ 在降息周期中，尽管铜价上涨弹性不需要太高，但权益市场表现可能会更好。 例如，在 2019 年美元指数首次降息后，虽然当年下半年铜价涨幅不算太高， 但相关股票表现却远好于铜价。因此，我们认为在当前及未来一段时间内，即 使铜价上涨有限，其相关股票仍具有较大的投资价值。 四季度有色金属板块，尤其是铜，前景乐观。紫金矿业和洛阳钼业为标 配标的，重点关注同有色，因其明年铜矿增量最大且估值最低，并具潜 在分红提升逻辑。 国内电解铜月供应约 180-190 万吨，需求波动于 170-210 万吨间。 2025 年国内需求强劲，受益于下游冷库需求和电解铜出口，电力、汽 车和家电为主要用铜行业。 全球铜供给持续紧张，2025 年预计精炼铜产量增速约为 2%，新增供应 有限。铜 ...

一、价格总览：沪铜走势与现货行情 在日常的废品回收中，铜的身影无处不在，从废旧电线到老旧电器，都蕴藏着可观的价值。那么，让我们拨开专业的迷雾，用最贴近生活的语言，聊聊2024 年3月22日，铜价的那些事儿。 今日沪铜期货主力合约价格经历了一番震荡，最终收盘价定格在每吨72680元，较上一交易日小幅上涨了230元。现货市场上，以长江有色金属现货为例，1 电解铜的价格在72620元/吨至72920元/吨之间波动，平均价为72770元/吨，较昨日上涨20元。广东南储的报价则稍高，为72830元/吨至73130元/吨。整体来 看，现货铜价呈现出稳中小涨的态势。 二、废铜江湖：各地价格暗流涌动 对于咱们老百姓来说，更关心的莫过于废铜的价格了。毕竟，家里攒着的那些废电线、旧水管，都能换成实实在在的钞票。 上海市场：光亮铜线（通常被称为1铜）是废铜中的佼佼者，其价格区间为68200元/吨至68500元/吨。紫杂铜（含铜量稍逊）的价格则在65900元/吨至66200 元/吨之间。 广东市场：同样是光亮铜线，广东的报价略高，为68600元/吨至68900元/吨。紫杂铜的价格区间则为66300元/吨至66600元/吨。 其他地区 ...

废铜价格飙涨：产业链的震荡与升级 产业链连锁反应：从原材料到终端产品的价格风暴 交易现场直击：价格波动与区域差异 在广州海珠回收站，排起了长长的货车队伍，载满空调管线的货车等待过磅。货主老王攥着报价单，兴奋地说："今早紫铜每吨又涨了80块，这车货多赚了 5000！"站内电子屏滚动更新价格，三小时内调价两次，展现了市场价格的剧烈波动。 而在上海保税区仓库，上演着"抢铜大战"。浙江铜厂采购员蹲守货 场，为抢购进口紫铜板每吨加价100元。货代透露：东南亚废铜到港量下降40%，批文配额优先保障高端品类。 与此同时，河北保定某拆解中心停机率高达 30%，负责人无奈地指着空置工位说："废旧变压器收不到，工人只能轮流放假。"周边的三家回收站联合提价收购，黄铜水箱报价单日跳涨100元。 铜杆厂正面临着"无米之炊"的困境。再生铜杆的排产周期已延长至7天，江西某铜杆厂的订单积压超过千吨。贸易商们纷纷转而买卖期货仓单，佛山交割库 的溢价甚至攀升至120元/吨。线缆企业也承受着巨大的成本压力，广东某电缆厂被迫接受78300元/吨的高价废铜，精废铜杆价差仅剩10元。采购经理无奈地 表示："现在用废铜还不如直接买电解铜划算，但期货套保额 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper is increasingly recognized as a critical raw material in the era of electrification and AI, with its importance growing in green energy transition, electrical manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and military applications [1][2]. Trade Policy Impact - On July 31, 2025, President Trump announced tariffs on copper imports, exempting refined copper but imposing a 50% tariff on semi-finished products like copper pipes and wires, leading to an over 18% drop in COMEX copper prices, marking the largest single-day decline in history [1]. - Starting in 2027, refined copper may face phased tariffs beginning at 15% and rising to 30% by 2028, with a focus on protecting U.S. downstream manufacturing rather than directly supporting domestic mining and smelting [2]. U.S. Copper Supply and Demand - The U.S. has a significant shortfall in copper smelting capacity, with only two active smelting plants, leading to a domestic supply of refined copper at 87.1 million tons, far below the demand of 160.8 million tons [3]. - The U.S. aims to reduce its copper import dependency from 45% to 30% by 2035, emphasizing the strategic importance of copper for national interests [3]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - COMEX copper inventory has surged to 261,200 tons, a 180% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating a substantial stockpile that could meet U.S. consumption needs for 3-4 months without imports [4]. - The current shipping premium from the U.S. to Asia is $120 per ton, and the price difference between COMEX and LME copper has diminished, reducing the incentive for cross-market arbitrage [4]. Supply Chain Disruptions - Recent supply disruptions include a deadly earthquake at the El Teniente copper mine in Chile and protests by informal miners in Peru, impacting copper concentrate processing fees [5]. - Chinese smelting companies are expanding production despite global challenges, negotiating favorable processing fees with suppliers, while Japanese firms face declining profit margins [5]. Market Outlook - Current macroeconomic conditions, including weaker non-farm data and low manufacturing PMI in both the U.S. and China, suggest a subdued rebound in copper prices, although tight domestic inventory and overseas supply disruptions provide some support [6]. - Long-term prospects for copper remain positive due to its strategic importance in U.S.-China relations, with price targets set for domestic and international markets [6].

Core Insights - The global copper market experienced significant price volatility on August 3, 2025, with a sharp decline affecting both domestic and international markets, as well as scrap copper prices [1] Group 1: International Market Impact - COMEX copper futures fell by 22%, marking the largest single-day drop since 1968, with prices decreasing by $1.24 per pound to $4.33 [2] - Major copper mining companies saw stock price declines, with Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO.US) down nearly 7% and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US) plummeting by 11% [2] - Analysts attribute the price drop to a "rational return" following irrational speculation driven by trade tensions, which previously inflated copper prices by approximately 40% [2] Group 2: Domestic Market Reaction - Domestic copper prices also fell, with the Yangtze River region's spot price dropping to ¥78,460 per ton, a decrease of ¥220, and Guangdong's price falling to ¥78,160 per ton, down ¥240 [3] - The futures market reflected similar trends, with August and September contracts declining by ¥40, settling at ¥78,390 and ¥78,400 per ton, respectively [3] - Aluminum prices also saw a decline, stabilizing at ¥20,520 per ton, down ¥60 [3] Group 3: Scrap Copper Price Trends - Scrap copper prices across various domestic regions experienced widespread declines, with significant drops in areas like Sichuan and Heilongjiang, where "No. 1 scrap copper" fell by ¥200 per ton [5] - Bright copper wire prices saw a more pronounced decrease, dropping by ¥400 per ton [5] - In contrast, some regions maintained stable prices for imported yellow mixed copper, indicating steady demand [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall decline in copper and scrap prices is closely linked to international price fluctuations and changes in domestic demand [6] - Future price movements will be significantly influenced by international copper prices and the domestic economic landscape, necessitating companies to monitor market dynamics closely [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips in August and maintaining this strategy in the medium to long term [6][7] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the decline in the expectation of a September interest rate cut. However, with the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year and the tight supply of copper mines throughout the year, copper prices are supported. In the long run, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, liquidity will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals, and the tight supply of copper mines will also support copper prices [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook (PART 01) - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The exclusion of electrolytic copper from the 50% copper tariff on August 1 may lead to the outflow of US electrolytic copper and accelerate the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. The Fed's inaction in July, combined with strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation, has further reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which suppresses copper prices. In the medium to long term, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, there are still expectations of two interest rate cuts this year, which will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals. The tight supply of copper mines throughout the year also supports copper prices. Although copper prices are currently in short - term adjustment with a support level of 77,000, the medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7] 2. Market Review (PART 02) - In July, copper prices were generally in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the "232" policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to the integer mark of 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend in multiple industries and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. However, the "anti - involution" had limited impact on the non - ferrous supply, and the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. After the sentiment subsided, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [8][9] 3. Macroeconomic Factors (PART 03) - **Tariff Policy**: The Sino - US tariff extension for 90 days has temporarily reduced tariff disturbances. The US announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products from August 1, excluding copper input materials and copper scrap. This led to a sharp decline in New York copper futures and related ETFs. Although electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, there is still long - term uncertainty as the US may consider imposing tariffs on electrolytic copper from 2027 [13][17] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, which was in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors voted against maintaining the interest rate, supporting a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July. The strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation have reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut [20][22] - **Domestic Economy**: China's Q2 GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for macro - policies to continue to be effective in the second half of the year, release domestic demand potential, and promote high - level opening - up. The "anti - involution" policy and the acceleration of the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies may support industrial product prices [27] - **Policy Impact on Supply and Demand**: From the supply side, policies will guide the copper smelting industry to control production capacity, which is expected to restore TC/RC processing fees and ease the contradiction between mining and smelting. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" series of policies focus on promoting stable growth in the manufacturing industry, which will boost the downstream demand for copper. In the long run, the supply - demand mismatch may further push up the copper price center [29] 4. Fundamental Factors (PART 04) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supplies from Chile and Peru, the top two suppliers, continued to decline, with Peru's supply dropping by about 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas mines this year are zero, and the spot processing fees in the domestic market remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [30] - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates is less active, and processing fees are "stable with a slight correction" [34] - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the "232" tariff policy, the rush to import copper since April has led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. However, as the policy expectation is fulfilled, LME copper inventory has increased. As of July 25, LME copper inventory reached 128,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the end of June. COMEX copper inventory is also increasing [38] - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons or 11.40%. The estimated production in July was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss stage, the willingness to cut production actively is not strong [42] - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to increase, while the supply from the US dropped significantly due to tariff policies. However, due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, domestic smelters' demand for scrap copper has increased, and the increased supply from other countries has made up for the shortfall [45] - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in June decreased significantly after the "5.31 rush - to - install" period. In 2025, the investment in the national power grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power supply project investment also increased significantly. However, affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the wire and cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41% [49] - **Real Estate Sector**: In the first half of 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The new construction area, completion area, and other indicators all declined. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventories are decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [53] - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The export of automobiles and new energy vehicles also increased significantly. With the implementation of relevant policies and the rich supply of new products, the increase in automobile production will drive copper consumption [57] - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June 2025, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative production from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the total production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Although the production plan for air - conditioners in August still decreased year - on - year, the decline was expected to narrow compared with the previous month [58]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - 232 tariff exemption for refined copper, copper prices may fluctuate downward, but the decline may not be smooth, with support expected in the range of 76,000 - 77,000 yuan/ton [5][8][15] - The supply of copper concentrates is facing challenges, with the growth rate falling short of expectations, and the tight supply situation is difficult to ease [29][39] - Overseas consumption remains resilient in Q3, but uncertainty increases in Q4; domestic demand is differentiated, with some sectors showing growth and others being dragged down [6][15][73] - The import window may open periodically, presenting a good positive arbitrage opportunity, but in the long - term, it may remain closed [8][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Copper Market Overview - On July 30, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1, excluding copper ores and cathode copper, causing a 18% plunge in US copper prices [5][14] - The COMEX - LME spread quickly converged to 2% - 3%, and if US copper is re - exported, the LME inventory accumulation rate may accelerate [5][14] - Due to the 232 tariff policy, the pre - consumption of copper globally has advanced, with overseas demand growing steadily and domestic demand in China and emerging economies weakening marginally [6][15] II. Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The expectation of the 232 tariff policy led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions, pushing up prices, which then fell back after the policy was announced [11] - The抢 - import of copper in the US from April to May led to a shortage of supply in non - US regions and a decrease in LME inventory. After the 232 policy was expected to be implemented, the LME inventory started to increase [12] 2. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US economy remains resilient, and the impact of the tariff policy depends on whether the US reaches a settlement with other countries [13][15] - In terms of supply, the supply of copper concentrates faces challenges, and domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production, while overseas smelters may further reduce production [13][14] - In terms of demand, overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand is differentiated but will not collapse [15] - In terms of prices, copper prices face downward pressure, but the decline may not be smooth [15] - In terms of ratios, the import window may open periodically, but will remain closed in the long - term [16] III. Copper Mine Disturbances Increase, Supply Tightness Difficult to Alleviate 1. Copper Concentrate Supply Growth Rate Falls Short of Expectations - In 2025, the supply of copper mines is tight. Some major mining companies have lowered their production expectations, and the supply growth rate is lower than expected [29] - The increase in domestic imports of copper concentrates in the first half of the year is due to the unstable production of overseas smelters, but overall, the supply of copper mines is still tight, and it is difficult for processing fees to rise significantly [39] 2. Global Scrap Copper Supply Mismatch, Tight Domestic Scrap Copper Supply - After the reciprocal 10% tariffs between China and the US, the export volume of US scrap copper did not decrease, but the export destination changed. China's imports from the US decreased significantly [40] - China has increased imports from Thailand and Europe to replace US scrap copper, but the import growth rate has declined, and the difficulty of importing scrap copper has increased [41] 3. Global Refined Copper Production Situation - Overseas smelters have increased production cuts due to factors such as low processing fees, copper concentrate shortages, and high costs. Some major smelters have stopped production or plan to cut production [46] - Domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production due to high sulfuric acid prices. The production of electrolytic copper in the first half of 2025 increased year - on - year, and it is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year [47][48] IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption Remains Resilient in Q3, Uncertainty Increases in Q4 - The US economy remains resilient, and the risk of recession has decreased significantly. The impact of the tariff policy on the US manufacturing industry is not obvious [53][54] - The global manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, with most developed countries showing an upward trend, while China and some emerging economies declined [54] 2. Domestic Demand Differentiation - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market continues to drag down copper consumption. The decline in construction completion area leads to a decrease in copper demand, and the impact of policy rate cuts on the real estate market is limited in the short - term [73][74] - **Power Grid and Power Source**: In the first half of 2025, grid investment increased year - on - year, and power source investment increased significantly. However, the wire and cable industry was affected by the off - season and high copper prices, and the export situation was different in different regions [80][83] - **Air - conditioning Market**: In the first half of 2025, the air - conditioning market showed growth, but the export market declined. The consumption growth rate of air - conditioners is expected to decline, and the copper consumption will increase slightly [91][92] - **Automobile Market**: The overall automobile market is stable, but the profitability is declining. The sales of fuel - powered vehicles are declining, and the substitution of new - energy vehicles for fuel - powered vehicles is the general trend [100] 3. "Anti - involution" Involves the Automobile Industry, Wind and Solar Power Generation Exceeds Expectations - **New - energy Vehicles**: The global new - energy vehicle market continues to grow. China leads the market, but the growth rate has slowed down in June - August. The copper consumption of new - energy vehicles is expected to increase [103][111] - **Wind and Solar Power Generation**: In the first half of 2025, China's photovoltaic and wind power new - installed capacity increased significantly year - on - year. The new - installed capacity of global photovoltaic and wind power is also expected to increase, and the copper consumption will increase accordingly [113][115] 4. Consumption Summary - Overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand weakens marginally but does not collapse. The growth of new - energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and wind power will drive copper consumption, while the real estate market will continue to drag down copper consumption [139] V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2024, there was a shortage of 130,000 tons of copper concentrates, and in 2025, the supply gap is expected to widen to 830,000 tons. In 2024, there was a surplus of 330,000 tons of refined copper, and in 2025, the surplus is expected to be 280,000 tons [143] - In July 2025, the domestic refined copper production and apparent consumption increased, but the year - on - year growth rate decreased due to the high base in 2024 [143]