| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 86,600.00 | +520.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,861.00 | +88.00↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | +20.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 199,582.00 | +7190.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -27,472.00 | -5300.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 155,025.00 | -2900.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 110,603.00 | +1196.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 6,625.00 | -2850.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 43,816.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 86,610.00 | +375.00↑ ...

11月21日（周五），欧洲铜制品制造商警告称，除非欧盟采取行动限制废铜出口，就像限制废铝出口那 样，否则他们将面临严重短缺。 大量精炼铜被投资者运往美国，他们被基于关税预期的更高价格所吸引。 "废铜和阴极铜短缺将会对半成品制造商构成严重威胁。" 阴极铜是由精炼铜制成的薄板，制造商利用铜来生产各种半成品，如电线、管材和棒材。 欧盟委员会周二宣布了相关计划，旨在限制欧盟对废铝的出口，以防止这种金属大量流出欧盟区域。 Schmidt表示，欧盟对铜业采取同样的措施也是合乎逻辑的。 （文华综合） 德国金属制品生产商威兰德（Wieland）的高管Uwe Schmidt表示："让我感到不安的是，明年欧洲存在 阴极铜短缺的高风险。" ...

海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国10月废铜进口量为19.66万吨，环比增加6.81%，同比增加7.35%，1-10 月中国废铜进口量189.56万吨，同比增加1.99%。10月主要废铜进口来源国前四依旧是日本、泰国、韩 国、马来西亚，面对进口条件的利好及国内需求的增加，10月废铜进口不降发增，再次超市场预期。 数据来源：海关总署 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 85,650.00 | -800.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,686.00 | -92.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 164,395.00 | -15532.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -23,694.00 | +11.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 135,725.00 | -450.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 109,407.00 | -5628.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 9,650.00 | -475.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 56,965.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 86,005.00 | -505.00↓ 长江有色市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown and the expected tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. The end of the US government shutdown may lead to an expansion of the fiscal deficit, and the Fed's halt to balance - sheet reduction or even start of balance - sheet expansion will ease the tightness of monetary liquidity. The partial resumption of production at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is unlikely to change the tight supply - demand outlook. As a result, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when the price drops, and pay attention to specific support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. - For the spread and inventory situation, due to factors such as the tight supply of global copper concentrates, the increase in the operating capacity of the copper processing industry, the hawkish shift in the Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations, and the decrease in the maintenance capacity of domestic copper smelters in November, it is recommended that investors temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities in the basis and spread of Shanghai copper and LME copper [9][10]. - In terms of the mid - upstream supply, multiple factors such as the performance of overseas mines, the change in scrap copper supply, and the adjustment of smelter maintenance plans will affect the production and import of copper concentrates, scrap copper, blister copper, anode plates, and electrolytic copper in November [27][30][33][37]. - Regarding the downstream demand, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products in the downstream, such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper plates and strips, copper tubes, and brass rods, have generally increased recently. The capacity utilization rates of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper plates and strips, and copper foils in November may increase month - on - month, while those of copper tubes and brass rods may decrease month - on - month [42][55][59][69][75][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - **Spread**: Shanghai copper basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the month - spread is negative and within a reasonable range. LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range, (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The spreads between LME copper and Shanghai copper, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper, and COMEX copper and LME copper are positive and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities [9][10][12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area and social inventory decreased compared with last week, while the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper increased compared with last week. The non - commercial long - to - short position ratio of COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [18][19]. Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: The production and import of domestic copper concentrates in November may increase month - on - month. The copper concentrate import index is negative and higher than last week. The port copper concentrate inventory in China increased compared with last week [27]. - **Scrap Copper**: The domestic scrap copper production and import in November may increase month - on - month, and the supply - demand outlook is tight. The domestic refined - scrap spread is positive, which may boost the economy of scrap copper [30]. - **Blister Copper**: The domestic blister copper production in November may increase month - on - month, and the import may decrease month - on - month. The weekly processing fees of blister copper in northern and southern China were flat and increased respectively compared with last week [33]. - **Anode Plate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plates increased compared with last week, and the processing fee was flat compared with last week [36]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper production and import in November may increase month - on - month [38]. Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - **Copper Rod**: The capacity utilization rates of domestic refined and recycled copper rods increased compared with last week. The raw material and finished - product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of domestic copper product enterprises in November may increase month - on - month [42][44]. - **Copper Wires and Cables**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory increased while the finished - product inventory decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [57][62]. - **Copper Enameled Wires**: The order volume and capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory days increased while the finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [61][62]. - **Copper Plates and Strips**: The weekly processing fee decreased, the capacity utilization rate and production increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may increase month - on - month [63][69]. - **Copper Tubes**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may decrease month - on - month [75][79]. - **Brass Rods**: The capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate in November may decrease month - on - month [78][79].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels, and the operation strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. There are liquidity easing expectations in the macro - market, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues has significantly eased. Fundamentally, overseas ore supply pressure persists, domestic smelter maintenance impacts deepen, and most inventories are at relatively low levels except in the US. The demand side has strong resilience. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive and investors need to be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels. With the market gradually reaching a consensus on tightening supply, the psychological upper limit of the downstream for copper prices is gradually rising. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive due to the Fed's hawkish remarks and the rebound of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Investors should be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] 2.行情回顾 (Market Review) - In October, copper prices were generally strong. Affected by overseas mine operation disruptions, copper prices gapped up after the National Day holiday. Then, due to the US provoking a "trade war" against China, copper prices slightly corrected. With the progress of Sino - US negotiations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, copper prices rose again and broke through the highest point in May 2024 [8][9] 3.宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspects) - **Interest Rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates in October, but a further rate cut in December is "far from certain". The US government's "shutdown" in October affected the release of economic data. The CPI data in September showed that overall inflation was controllable, which further consolidated the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in October [11][14] - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: In October, the US provoked a "trade war" against China again, causing copper prices to fall. However, through Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the two sides reached a consensus on multiple issues, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues significantly eased, enhancing market confidence in the economic growth of the two countries [16] - **Domestic Economic and Policy Situation**: China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was reviewed and approved, which will bring policy benefits to the terminal application fields. The copper industry should prevent "involution - style" vicious competition and ensure the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain. The US has adjusted its copper resource strategy, which may change the global copper supply flow [18][22][23] 4.基本面 (Fundamental Aspects) - **Supply Side**: In September, China's copper ore concentrate imports decreased month - on - month, with a sharp drop in shipments from Chile. Overseas mine operation disturbances increased, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates remained in the negative range. Except for the significant accumulation of copper inventories in the US, LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased or remained stable. In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to the peak of smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and the low processing fee of copper concentrates [24][28][31][35] - **Demand Side**: In September, China's scrap copper imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The expected decline in the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry in October was due to the high copper price. As of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity increased year - on - year, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to grow. The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area. The automobile market maintained a high - growth trend, and the new energy vehicle market performed well. The home appliance market entered a seasonal off - season [39][43][47][50][56][59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of Sino - US relations and China's "15th Five - Year Plan" boost the overall demand for base metals, and the copper market is still favorable at the macro level [3]. - The supply gap in the copper market is expected to widen in 2026, and the negotiation of long - term contracts is difficult [3]. - The strong fundamentals of electrolytic copper are in a game with high copper prices, and downstream acceptance of high copper prices may decline [3]. - Although there are strong macro - level demand expectations for copper, the current actual demand is questionable [4]. - The fundamentals of the copper market are supported by the supply gap before 2026, and short - term variables are concentrated on the macro side. There may be short - term rapid declines, but they are good opportunities for long - positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - **1.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Market Price**: The Indonesia incident has continuously pushed up the ore price, and data on 20% copper concentrate market price, TC price, refined - scrap copper price difference, and copper import profit are presented [7][8][9]. - **1.2 Electrolytic Copper Spot - Futures Market Price**: The copper mine incident is the dominant factor, and data on Shanghai copper spot - futures price, basis, Yangshan Bonded Area premium, and LME copper and COMEX copper prices are shown [11][12][15]. - **1.3 Outer - Market Copper Position Data**: Overseas long - position speculation continues to increase, and data on overseas exchange inventory, LME copper warehouse receipt composition, fund position, and COMEX copper non - commercial position are provided [16][17][21]. 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - **2.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Supply**: Data on copper concentrate net import volume, electrolytic copper net import volume, and scrap copper net import volume are presented [27][28][29]. - **2.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory**: Information on electrolytic copper monthly output, production rate, production cost, profit, and weekly inventory (including market inventory and factory inventory) is provided [32][34][36]. 3.3 Macro Data and Downstream Consumption - **3.1 US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield**: Data on the US dollar index, US Treasury yield spread, real interest rate, and inflation are presented [38][39][41]. - **3.2 US Economic Data**: Information on US employment, market confidence index, social retail sales, inventory, central bank total assets, GDP growth rate, and stock index closing price is provided. The Fed hints at a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction [48][49][54]. - **3.3 Chinese Economic Data**: In July, new loans turned negative, PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Data on M1, M2 growth rates, new RMB loans, manufacturing PMI, social consumer goods retail sales, and GDP growth rate are presented [58][63][64]. - **3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" may bring new expectations. Data on electrolytic copper monthly demand, copper foil production rate, terminal product output growth rate, and fixed - asset investment completion growth rate are provided [70][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Report Summary - Market risk preference has increased due to the start of China-US economic and trade consultations. The market is concerned about the results of these consultations [9][11]. - The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal have boosted market confidence [13]. - The meeting on the operation of key enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry in the third quarter emphasized preventing "involutionary" vicious competition and ensuring the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain [15]. 02 Multi-Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: - Social inventory has decreased slightly, and domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has recovered [7]. - China's September scrap copper imports increased, with a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase, mainly due to policy adjustments and the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" season [27][28]. - In September, the output of copper strips ended a four - month decline, and the output of refined copper rods increased slightly [30][33]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [36]. - The new energy vehicle industry has maintained a strong momentum, with September production and sales increasing by 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year respectively [41][42]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has decreased, and the domestic copper spot premium has turned into a discount while the foreign premium - discount range has narrowed [44][47]. - **Bearish Factors**: - In September, China's copper ore imports decreased, with a 6.24% month - on - month decline. The supply from Chile dropped by over 30%. Global copper mine supply shows rigidity and vulnerability [17][19]. - The TC of copper concentrates remains at a low level, with the weekly index at - 40.7 dollars/dry ton as of October 17, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [20][21]. - In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to peak smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and a decrease in the incentive to increase production [23][24]. - The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area from January to September [38][39]. 03 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data**: - China's September copper ore imports were 2.5869 million tons, a 6.24% month - on - month decrease and a 6.43% year - on - year increase. The supply from Chile dropped to 649,400 tons [19]. - As of October 17, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/dry ton, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [21]. - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease and a 14.48% year - on - year increase. In October, production continued to decline [24]. - China's September scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase [28]. - **Demand - side Data**: - In September, the output of copper strips was 196,200 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase but an 8.7% year - on - year decrease [31]. - In September, the output of refined copper rods was 849,300 tons, a 0.18% month - on - month increase, while the output of recycled copper rods was 170,800 tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [34]. - From January to September, real estate development enterprise housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year [39]. - In September, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6% [42]. - **Inventory Data**: - LME copper inventory was 11,240 tons last week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased by 0.5% to 110,240 tons in the week of October 17, and COMEX copper inventory was 347,498 tons. As of October 23, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, down 5,700 tons from the 20th [45]. 04后市研判 - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49].

Group 1: Report Summary - China-US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market risk preference has increased [11] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, passing the "Proposal on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development", which injected confidence into the market [14] - As of the week of October 17th, the standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/ton dry, down 0.13 dollars/ton dry from last week, and the copper concentrate processing fee continued to be under pressure [23] - The trading strategy is to wait for the opportunity to buy on dips when Shanghai copper is in a strong state but may face pressure at the 88,000 integer mark [5] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - Spot processing fees remain low, and the tightness at the mine end still exists; social inventory has a small decline [8] - Domestic and foreign macro - sentiments have warmed up; China - US economic and trade consultations have started, and the market risk preference has increased [8][9] Bearish Factors - Downstream feedback shows weak consumption performance [8] Group 3: Data Analysis Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports - In September, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.5869 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The supply from Chile dropped by more than 30% [20] Copper Concentrate TC - As of October 17th, the copper concentrate TC continued to be at a low level, and the long - term negotiation has entered the initial stage with large differences [23] Electrolytic Copper Production - In September, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. In October, the output is expected to continue to decline due to peak - season maintenance and other factors [25] Scrap Copper Imports - In September, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, mainly due to policy adjustments and market demand [29] Copper Plate and Strip Production - In September, the domestic copper plate and strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline but still lower than the same period last year [33] Copper Rod Production - In September, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%, and the recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [37] Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference - As of October 23rd, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 230 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [41] Copper Inventory - As of October 23rd, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the 20th. LME copper inventory decreased, while SHFE copper inventory increased [54] Copper Spot Premium - On October 23rd, the Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper spot premium turned to a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [58] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Real Estate Market - From January to September, real estate development investment, new construction area, and sales volume all declined year - on - year. In September, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline, and the real estate market is still weak [45][47] New Energy Vehicle Industry - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%, showing a strong development momentum [50] Group 5: Market Outlook - Shanghai copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Wait for the opportunity to buy on dips and pay attention to the results of China - US consultations [60]

海关总署在线查询数据显示，中国9月废铜进口量为18.41万吨，环比增加2.6%，同比增加14.8%，1-9月 中国废铜进口量169.9万吨，同比增加1.4%。9月主要废铜进口来源国分别为日本、泰国、韩国、马来西 亚。 数据来源：海关总署 ...