U.S. Policy Reinforces Gold's Role as Fear IndexCONCLUDED[Dow, S&P 500 Gain Steam]Last Updated:---12 hours ago# U.S. Policy Reinforces Gold's Role as Fear IndexByJoseph Michael Stoner, Dow Jones NewswiresPolicy actions by the Trump administration are pushing gold higher as the precious-metal increasingly serves as a barometer of market fear, MUFG analyst Soojin Kim wrote."Renewed attacks on the Fed, threats of sweeping trade tariffs [and] geopolitical brinkmanship" are among the forces attracting concerned ...

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation's Aluminum segment is experiencing strong demand in North America and Europe, particularly in the electrical and packaging markets, alongside progress on the San Ciprián smelter restart [1][8] Demand and Market Trends - The demand for aluminum has significantly increased due to the rising popularity of lighter and energy-efficient electric vehicles, recycled aluminum, and rechargeable batteries. Additionally, the growth in global air travel has led aircraft manufacturers to increase production, boosting demand for aluminum alloys [2] Production and Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Alcoa's aluminum production rose by 1% sequentially to 579,000 metric tons, with third-party revenues increasing by 4% due to higher average realized prices. The U.S. administration's decision to raise tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% has positively impacted domestic producers like Alcoa by increasing aluminum prices [3][8] - Alcoa anticipates aluminum production for 2025 to be between 2.3 million and 2.5 million tonnes, with shipments expected to range from 2.5 million to 2.6 million tonnes [4][8] Peer Comparison - Constellium SE's Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment saw shipments increase by 4% year-over-year to 820,000 metric tons in the first nine months of 2025, with revenues rising by 17% to $3.2 billion [5] - Olympic Steel, Inc.'s Specialty Metals Flat Products segment achieved its highest shipping volume in three years, with shipments up 6.1% year-over-year to 96,911 metric tons and revenues increasing by 5% to $405.1 million [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Alcoa's shares have increased by 27.2% over the past month, outperforming the industry's growth of 24.1% [7] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.28X, which is above the industry's average of 11.80X, and holds a Value Score of B [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alcoa's 2025 earnings has risen by 7.5% over the past 60 days, indicating positive sentiment [10]

Core Viewpoint - China has announced tariffs of up to 42.7% on dairy products from the European Union, citing substantial damage to its domestic dairy industries due to EU subsidies [1]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariffs will take effect on April 23, with rates determined by the amount of "ad valorem subsidy rates" from the Customs Tariff Commission [2]. - Tariff rates range from 21.9% to 42.7%, with companies that cooperated with the investigation facing a tariff of 28.6%, while non-cooperating companies will be subject to the maximum rate of 42.7% [2]. Group 2: Affected Products - The tariffs will apply to fresh and processed cheese, as well as certain types of milk and cream [3]. Group 3: Related Trade Actions - Recently, China reduced its tariffs on pork imports and pig by-products from the EU, with new rates ranging from 4.9% to 19.8% [3]. - In September, China imposed temporary anti-dumping tariffs of up to 62.4% on pork imports from the EU [3]. - The EU has challenged China's tariffs on EU brandy at the World Trade Organisation, claiming they do not comply with WTO rules [4].

Core Message - The IMF World Bank annual meetings highlight that geopolitical and economic uncertainty, particularly due to trade tariffs, is impacting global growth [2][4]. Economic Outlook - The current effective tariff rate from the US is slightly under 20%, down from an earlier projection of around 25%, indicating some adaptation in the private sector [4][3]. - Growth projections for 2025 remain stable at 3.2%, with a slight expected slowdown to 3.1% next year, supported by strong tech investments and accommodating financial conditions [5]. Trade Relations - Ongoing trade tensions, especially between the US and China, pose risks to the global economy, with potential declines in global output by 0.3% if tensions escalate [6][7]. - The need for clear and transparent trade agreements is emphasized to restore stability and allow businesses to plan effectively [7][11]. Regional Perspectives - Australia advocates for more trade rather than trade barriers, expressing concerns about the global economic impact of current trade tensions [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies is seen as detrimental to economic stability, with no clear winners in the ongoing trade disputes [15][16]. Data Interpretation Challenges - Current trade data is volatile, making it difficult to assess the full impact of trade conflicts, with some effects potentially delayed [17][19]. - The first quarter saw significant import frontloading in anticipation of tariffs, complicating the interpretation of trade figures [20][21].

Core Insights - Toyota Motor reported a nearly 28% year-on-year drop in operating profit for the quarter ended September, despite an over 8% increase in revenue [1][2] - The decline in profit marks the second consecutive quarter of falling profits due to U.S. tariffs, although a recent trade deal reduced tariffs on Japanese exports to the U.S. from 25% to 15% [2] - Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. experienced a significant decline, with a 24.2% drop in September, slightly better than the 28.4% drop in August [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was reported at 12.38 trillion yen (approximately $81 billion), compared to 12.18 trillion yen in the previous year [4] - Operating profit was recorded at 834 billion yen, down from 863.1 billion yen [4] Sales Performance - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, Toyota's vehicle sales, including its luxury brand Lexus, reached 5.3 million units from April to September, reflecting a 4.7% year-on-year increase [3]

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The Supreme Court is set to hear a significant case regarding President Trump's authority to impose tariffs on goods from over 100 nations without Congressional approval, which could have major implications for the U.S. economy [5] - The Trump administration justified the tariffs under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA), citing "growing deficits" and the decline of the manufacturing base as critical issues [5] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, over $100 billion in extra tariff revenue may need to be refunded, raising questions about the execution of such refunds and the validity of trade deals established under the tariff framework [6] Group 2: Company Developments - Palantir (PLTR) is initiating a fellowship program aimed at high-school graduates, providing full-time work experience as an alternative to traditional college education [3] - Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has reported a record cash reserve of $382 billion, indicating strong liquidity and potential for future investments [8] - Micron is undergoing a shift in its business model, which may affect its market positioning and investor sentiment [7] Group 3: Market Trends - OPEC+ plans to implement one final production increase in December before pausing further hikes, while China's oil stockpiling is helping to stabilize the market amid U.S. sanctions on Russian crude [4] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with futures indicating slight increases across major indices, while crude oil prices have decreased by 0.5% to $60.69 [8]

Core Insights - Dayforce reported third-quarter profit that fell below analysts' estimates, indicating potential challenges in the company's financial performance [1] - The labor market uncertainty and increasing concerns over trade tariffs have led companies to reduce their software spending, impacting Dayforce's revenue [1] Company Summary - Dayforce's third-quarter profit was lower than expected, reflecting broader economic concerns [1] - The company is facing headwinds due to external factors such as labor market dynamics and trade policy uncertainties, which are influencing corporate spending behavior [1] Industry Summary - The software industry is experiencing a slowdown in spending as companies become more cautious amid economic uncertainties [1] - Trade tariffs and labor market conditions are significant factors affecting investment decisions in the software sector [1]

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Market Reactions - President Trump announced a "pretty much finalized" trade deal with South Korea, involving $350 billion in investments to the U.S., with tariffs on South Korean imports decreasing from 25% to 15% [2] - The market reacted positively to the South Korea deal, although specific immediate percentage gains on Asian indices were not available [2] - The U.S.-China trade relationship remains volatile, with Trump expressing optimism about a potential deal with China, suggesting a reduction in tariffs in exchange for cooperation on fentanyl precursor chemicals [8] Group 2: Market Volatility and Stock Performance - Following Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese exports, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 878.82 points (1.90%), and the S&P 500 dropped by 2.71%, resulting in a loss of $1.5 trillion in market value [3] - The market rebounded shortly after, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.6% and the Dow Jones climbing by 1.3% due to Trump's softened tone on China [4] - Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), the parent company of Truth Social, saw its stock rise over 6% after announcing plans to enter the prediction markets business [5] Group 3: Stock Predictions and Analyst Sentiment - DJT's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a beta coefficient of 1.67 and a 52-week low of $15.40, with some analysts predicting a further drop to $9.15 per share by late November 2025 [6] - Analysts have coined the term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) to describe Trump's tendency to retract tariff threats, reflecting the market's sensitivity to his statements [4][10] - The market's reaction to Trump's statements indicates a reliance on his confidence, as seen with Nvidia shares rising following positive comments from its CEO regarding Trump's trade negotiation abilities [10]

Core Points - The situation between India and Pakistan has escalated, with reports of seven planes being shot down, indicating a serious conflict between two nuclear nations [1][2] - Trade deals with both countries were put on hold due to the ongoing conflict, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions on international business [2][5] - Diplomatic efforts led to a quick resolution, with both Prime Ministers agreeing to cease hostilities within 48 hours, demonstrating the effectiveness of negotiation in crisis situations [3][6] Group 1 - The relationship between the U.S. and both India and Pakistan is complex, with respect for their leaders but a clear stance against engaging in trade during wartime [1][2] - The imposition of high tariffs (250%) was used as a leverage tool to encourage both nations to stop fighting, showcasing the use of economic pressure in diplomacy [5] - The quick cessation of conflict is presented as a significant achievement, potentially saving millions of lives and stabilizing the region [6]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports another interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting due to mixed signals from the job market [1][2] Labor Market Analysis - Waller believes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at the meeting concluding on October 29, based on labor market data [2] - He noted a weakening demand in the labor market, despite lower net immigration and a decline in labor force participation this year [4] - The current labor market shows low hiring and firing rates, which Waller describes as "ominous" [4][6] Future Rate Cuts - Waller indicated that if the labor market continues to soften and inflation remains controlled, the FOMC should consider reducing the policy rate to a neutral level, estimated to be 100 to 125 basis points lower than the current range of 4.00%-4.25% [5][7] - The anticipated policy rate would then be in the range of 2.75%-3.00% [5] Economic Context - The upcoming FOMC meeting is set against a backdrop of limited data availability due to the U.S. government shutdown, which complicates the assessment of the job market [4][7] - Waller emphasized that the Fed's focus remains on the job market while inflation pressures are expected to align with the Fed's 2% target [3]