Stagflation, a scenario of high inflation, weak growth and elevated unemployment, has become a topic of concern for economists and traders amid US trade tariffs, sticky services inflation and slowing GDP growth. Recent tariff hikes have pushed costs higher for many imported goods and consumer inflation expectations have risen with annual headline inflation projected to approach 3.9% by year end as tariffs are implemented. However, the argument for stagflation remains limited due to continued weakness in goo ...

Wall Street strategists are sounding alarms that the US economy is drifting toward stagflation as the impact of trade tariffs start to show up: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/krwCufqiz0 ...

Wall Street strategists are sounding alarms that the US economy is drifting toward stagflation as the impact of trade tariffs start to show up, potentially restricting the ability of the Fed to slash interest-rates https://t.co/l3qrVXM50s ...

South Africa's Jendamark Automation lost contracts worth 750 million rand ($41 million) as a result of new US trade tariffs, News24 reported https://t.co/gPKNPP0q1A ...

US Treasury yields hover around their highest levels in a month as traders await data on producer prices that could provide more evidence trade tariffs are stoking inflation https://t.co/EMy0yVcXos ...

Market Performance & Indices - Major indices are mostly green, influenced by upcoming CPI data and big bank earnings [2] - S&P 500 shows little change overall, but trade tariff threats impact market activity with reduced volume [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is expected to close higher by more than 80 points, approximately 02% [6] - The S&P is up about ten points, roughly 01% [6] - The Nasdaq Composite is adding about 03% [6] - The Russell 2000 is outperforming, up 15 points or about 07% [7] Sector Analysis - More stocks moved higher in the S&P, with 286 to the upside and 213 to the downside [7] - Tech sector is slightly down by 02%, while energy and material stocks are lower by 04% due to sinking oil prices [8] - Communication services, financials, and Real Estate Investment Trusts are the best performers [8] Company Specifics - Fastenal reported a 86% increase in net sales for the second quarter, meeting analyst estimates, shares are 4% higher [9] - Warner Brothers Discovery shares are up more than 2% after reporting domestic revenue of at least $215 million for Superman movie [12] - Warner Brothers Discovery Superman movie took in $220 million worldwide, with $125 million in US ticket sales, beating expectations of $115 million [12] - Candy shares are up by more than 22% [16] - Waters stock fell for double digit losses after announcing a merger valued at $175 billion [17] - Constellation Brands shares fell after President Trump declared a 30% tariff for Mexico and the EU [18] - Fluence Energy's market cap is about $14 billion, with year-to-date performance down 50% [21] Tariffs & Trade - President Trump's comments suggest openness to negotiating trade, providing some relief to investors [3][4] - Tariffs are impacting companies, with a swimming pool maker likely to hike prices for a second time this year [29] - The US has collected more than $100 billion in tariff revenue, but its impact on income statements and inflation data is yet to be fully seen [30] Economic Indicators - Treasury yields are rising, with greater moves on the longer end of the curve [22] - The short end of the curve shows narrow range moves, with a one to three basis point change [23]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - Trade uncertainty is expected to persist, impacting corporate confidence, capital expenditure (capex), and the overall trade cycle [6][36] - High-frequency data is anticipated to reflect negative impacts on the growth cycle in the upcoming 2-3 months [6][36] Summary by Relevant Sections Trade Negotiation Status - Vietnam is the only country that has secured a trade agreement, while negotiations with other economies remain unclear [6] - The US and China face significant challenges in reaching a comprehensive trade deal, particularly regarding transshipments and sectoral tariffs for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [6][33] Economic Implications - The report highlights that if trade agreements are secured, the best-case scenario would be for tariff rates to remain at current levels [18] - If no progress is made, tariff rates could revert to levels announced on April 2, 2025, which would significantly impact various economies [18] Country-Specific Negotiation Updates - **China**: Current tariff rate is 42%, with ongoing negotiations regarding rare earth exports and chip design software [56] - **India**: Current tariff rate is 11%, with India emphasizing that trade agreements must align with national interests [56] - **Indonesia**: Current tariff rate is 15%, with a focus on securing a comprehensive trade deal covering critical minerals and energy [56] - **Japan**: Current tariff rate is 17%, with unresolved issues on auto tariffs and agricultural market access [56] - **Korea**: Current tariff rate is 16%, with ongoing negotiations to extend tariff pauses [56] - **Malaysia**: Current tariff rate is 8%, with limited updates following two rounds of negotiations [56] - **Taiwan**: Current tariff rate is 7%, aiming for a zero-tariff deal and increased US goods purchases [56] - **Thailand**: Current tariff rate is 11%, with proposals to reduce trade surplus with the US [56] - **Vietnam**: Current effective tariff rate is 20%, with commitments to remove tariffs on US goods [56] Tariff Rate Changes - The report indicates that the US trade-weighted tariff rates on imports from Asia have increased significantly, with potential further increases [13][14] - The emergence of a two-tiered tariff structure for imports from Vietnam highlights the US's focus on addressing transshipment issues [21][22] Economic Data Trends - High-frequency shipping indicators show a slowdown in activity, suggesting that the initial strength in trade may be waning [36][46] - Capital goods imports have held up, but there are signs of potential weakness in the coming months [36][41]

Core Insights - Temu's daily US users decreased by 58% in May, attributed to challenges from the US-China trade war and the end of the "de minimis" exemption for low-value shipments from China [1][10] - The company has reduced advertising spending in the US and is shifting its order fulfillment strategy in response to the changing tariff environment [1][8] - Temu's sales growth and customer growth rates have declined more sharply than its competitor Shein since the introduction of trade tariffs [4][5] Market Environment - The end of the "de minimis" provision has forced Temu and Shein to raise prices, impacting customer engagement and sales [5][10] - Despite the challenges, Shein has managed to increase spending per customer, while Temu has struggled to maintain its customer base [5][6] - Analysts suggest that if the current tariff situation persists, Temu's competitive position may continue to weaken [6] Business Model Changes - Temu's previous model involved merchants managing product orders while the company handled logistics, pricing, and marketing [9] - Following the tariff changes, Temu's merchants can now ship individual orders to US warehouses but must navigate tariffs and customs [12] - The company is focusing on a local fulfillment model to stabilize prices and support merchants [8][12] User Growth and Market Expansion - Temu's non-US market growth has accelerated, with non-US users constituting 90% of its 405 million global monthly active users in Q2 [13] - The fastest growth in new users is occurring in less affluent markets, indicating potential for expansion outside the US [13]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector, particularly the semiconductor industry, is facing challenges due to trade tariffs, leading to uncertainty and declining sentiment among investors [1][3][6]. Industry Summary - The semiconductor and chipmaking industries are significantly impacted by recent trade tariffs, affecting forecasts and overall market sentiment [1][3]. - Despite the negative sentiment, there are opportunities for investors to identify undervalued stocks that have already priced in worst-case scenarios, potentially offering upside [2][9]. Company Summary (ASML) - ASML Holding is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity, with a favorable risk-to-reward setup, as the bearish sentiment may already be reflected in its current stock price [3][10]. - ASML has underperformed compared to peers like NVIDIA, with a 15% underperformance over the past month and approximately 40% over the past year [4][5]. - The stock is currently in a bear market, trading at 65% of its 52-week high, which may deter bearish traders [6][7]. - Short interest in ASML has declined by 1%, indicating a potential shift in sentiment as pessimistic views may have been priced in [7]. - Institutional buying has increased, with First Manhattan boosting their position in ASML by 61%, indicating confidence in the stock's recovery [8][9]. - Analysts maintain a consensus price target of $906 per share for ASML, suggesting a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price [10][12]. - ASML's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is significantly higher than its peers, indicating a premium valuation that reflects market confidence in its future performance [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The market is facing significant uncertainty due to trade tariffs imposed by President Trump, particularly affecting Apple Inc. and the broader technology sector [1][3][7]. Company Analysis: Apple Inc. - Apple stock is currently priced at $199.95, with a 52-week range between $169.21 and $260.10, and a dividend yield of 0.52% [2]. - The stock has recently experienced a sell-off due to a 25% tariff on all Apple products not produced in the U.S., which has raised concerns among investors [3][10]. - A federal court ruling has limited the President's ability to impose such tariffs without meeting specific conditions, which could lead to increased market volatility [3][7]. - Technical analysis suggests that Apple stock needs to return to a 20% discount from its 52-week high of approximately $208 for a potential recovery [5][13]. - The average daily trading volume for Apple stock is around 56 million shares, which serves as a benchmark for investor interest as the stock approaches the $208 mark [6][8]. Institutional Activity - Institutional investors, such as Jones Financial Companies, have increased their holdings in Apple by 31.6% following the court ruling, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [9]. - The presence of "Smart Money" in the market suggests that informed investors are positioning themselves ahead of potential price movements [8][10]. Financial Outlook - Analysts have set a 12-month price target for Apple at $235.80, representing a 17.93% upside from the current price, with some forecasts as high as $300.00 [11][13]. - Apple's financial strength is highlighted by a net income margin of 24.3%, which positions the company to absorb the impact of ongoing tariffs [11][12]. - Dan Ives from Wedbush has reiterated an Outperform rating for Apple, suggesting confidence in the company's ability to navigate trade tensions [12].